Transcript

The U.S. at 250: The case for reckoning and rebuild, with Ian Bremmer

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1:35 And that is that we have been successful for two hundred fifty years with this most unlikely human experiment. And to fix it, we're gonna have to change a bunch of things, but you still come together. Patriotism in this country is having the courage not just to say I love my country, but having the courage to publicly say when your country is f<unk>ing up. That's what patriotism is. And we need patriotic Americans to do precisely that now because it matters.

2:09 That's Ian Bremmer, political scientist, president of the Eurasia Group, and advisor to business leaders and political leaders all around the globe. As we head toward the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States, I wanted to talk with Ian about the state of brand America at a time of intense disruption. Just before we started recording, Ian got an impromptu call from US Senator John Osoff, as if to underscore his deep contacts. In this episode, Ian argues that Americans are in a revolutionary mood right now, and that that is a positive. He critiques the wealth divide in the US and the opportunity lapses, and he certainly has no great love for President Trump.

2:51 But his advice to businesses and to all of us, it isn't partisan, it's practical. And it will get you thinking about what the US needs to extend its great experiment another 250 years. So let's get to it. I'm Bob Safian, and this Is rapid response.

3:12 I'm Bob Safian. I'm here with Ian Bremer, president of Eurasia Group and host of G Zero World on PBS. Ian, welcome back to Rapid Response. Good to see you Bob. It's been a while. Yeah. So we're we're nearing the two hundred fiftiet anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, July fourth, United States of America's two hundred and fiftiet birthday, celebrations, festivities gearing up, but it it's also a moment of intense Change technological, economic, political. I I'm eager to get your assessment of the health of the US at two hundred and fifty years old. I mean, judging by record high stock market.

3:49 Things seem quite rosy. Is that the right barometer to look at? It would be bad if that was the only barometer you were looking at uh I I mean Look, I I think most Americans Aren't sure what their country stands for.

4:03 We now Lionized Even worship. Money. in this country more than any other thing.

4:14 In my view that's pretty far from what What is sustainable. It's also making people angrier. It's making certainly people feel much more stressed. And and anxious

4:29 Uh about about themselves, their future, their kids. As a political scientist, of course, uh I I think the fact that American power continues to be projected globally in ways that other countries cannot certainly matters.

4:46 We've got the best entrepreneurs, we got the best universities, we got these extraordinary market returns. Technology, defense, all of that stuff. But But that's not I mean, well you're in your deathbed that that's not what r really matters to you in terms of your life and your history, and it's also not

5:06 Um, the w the reason why I think a lot of Americans care so much about their country. So I I I think we need to go bigger than that. Mm. Things like You know, trust in the US dollar, English is the default language, the primacy of US entertainment and music and global culture, like all this evidence that America's impact and appeal remains Predominant. But the the US brand where it stands is not quite as

5:34 Uh stable. As it as it might look if you just talk about those things. Other countries in the world Uh don't trust the United States. I mean you talk to the Europeans and they'll tell you how angry they are about the way the US has treated them on trade.

5:51 on Greenland on Ukraine Uh, I I was with the Japanese recently, high level officials, and they told me they felt like we've extorted them. um in their trade deal and demanding five hundred and fifty billion dollars of investment in the US or else, and we get to decide where it goes, they don't. It's on and on and on. I mean countries around the world. Mm uh certainly.

6:16 Um understand American power. But the United States has not respected around the world and is not um viewed as dependable.

6:28 You have talked about this for a while. This is not just what's happened in the last year or so w with the you know with the second Trump administration, but this is sort of a trend that's been Ongoing. You're right, Bob, that uh th this is something I've talked about for uh well over a decade now. And there are structural aspects that have nothing to do with the president. Um the idea that the United States would just

6:54 be the architect of global free trade. is is something that now most Americans reject, and they want to see industrial policy Support for manufacturing, in sourcing, at home. United States uh no longer supports The kind of

7:13 leadership and burden sharing. uh militarily with other allies around the world. They want those countries to spend vastly more on their own defense. The US does not want to have The kind of comparatively open borders and immigration regime. Um that uh many from around the world benefited from

7:33 Certainly when my grandmother came over here at the beginning of the the twentieth uh century Um so all of those things are different. And and they are different for democrats and republicans across the political spectrum. Having said that. There has been an acceleration.

7:53 With A second Trump administration. The way Да і газ прайтиз. The actions of the executive.

8:02 Over the last Um the Iranian war that has been a staggering mistake, the biggest of his administration, and yet he he he ran. On ending these wars, on being a peacemaker. It's important to recognize that there's a difference as we think about the two hundred fifties anniversary. Of the founding of the United States.

8:24 Uh between The structural changes That will persist in these these Іщус заюні чи Трамс анфітнес. as a a leader.

8:37 The limited uh pushing back against some of these things that Trump has been doing. Both within his party and from other institutions. Is that Ізорикли сини? Think it's significant. Um, but it's also significant that um we do have real checks and balances.

8:59 Which persist. From a market perspective. CEOs have been pretty quiet. Right. You know, when Trump does things.

9:09 That are clearly illegal. Um an independent judiciary. Eventually Stops him. We've seen that with the tariffs, for example, used for ostensible national emergency concerns.

9:24 On countries around the world on Supreme Court. took its time to hear the case and rule on it. But struck it all down. Mm and now just, you know, Trump is saying that they're going to see if they can find a way not to have to pay the money back that they've already collected, which of course, again

9:42 was illegal So they will appeal it. And they'll find it. But they'll lose. Um and I I consider that pushback. It's pushback from an independent judiciary.

9:53 Та стіл із найдати Стайс. Um there's pushback. When Ice Um engages in brutal excesses on the ground in Minnesota. And is forced out.

10:06 By CEOs Across the board. And by local politicians. Left, right, and center. And and I can give you so many more examples of this, and and courage is contagious.

10:19 And and Trump's Uh uh clearly. Engaging in a lot of political revolutionary activities. In that he wants to end checks and balances. On on the executive.

10:33 And he will fail. That doesn't mean that that's the end of political revolution in the United States. We've we had one with FDR. FDR failed at some things that were excesses, like packing the Supreme Court, but he he succeeded in other things like Creating an administrative state. That helps uh allow for the creation of infrastructure in the country.

10:54 that built a working and middle class. Um, and you know, the reality is most Americans today Belief some form of a політика революцію. Ізнесері That is why you got Trump.

11:08 And it is why you will have in the future. More and more політика лідер. Uh like Uh Trump.

11:17 in their anti establishment Sentiment. Though not Uh hopefully. In their excessive

11:26 Uh authoritarian impulses. Um in their excessive kleptocracy personally. Um and in their policy and competence. То заморюні то Трам. But they do not reflect.

11:41 or represent The anger, the anxiety, the demand for change, the revolutionary impulse that let's remember, Bob. Actually made the United States an independent country to begin with. Two hundred and fifty years ago. Jim Vandenhead Axios has argued that like media tends to overstate the polarization in America. You know, there's more common ground than anything else.

12:04 Do you buy that or is there is there something else that's sort of driving this? Today's revolutionary spirit. Oh. I buy that there's a lot of common ground among Americans when you get'em in a room and you make them actually have a beer Have burger. I mean, they talk to each other, they like each other. Algorithms destroy that.

12:24 In the same way that when people are walking on the streets they like each other and you put'em in cars on a freeway and they don't, right? I mean that I get that. Um But Мост Американсь болів.

12:36 That the United States has become A two tier system, and that if you have access And money. The American Dream Works for You. And otherwise it doesn't.

12:49 That oh I I I grew up in the seventies. And and the United States in the seventies was one of the most Class mobile countries of the advanced industrial democracies. In the last forty є.

13:05 It has shifted to becoming one of the most stagnant in terms of class mobility. The best predictor now of the of class um uh outcomes in the US. Today compared to every other OECD economy. Is is how wealthy your parents are.

13:23 And and that Is something that most Americans oppose. There's a great deal of opportunity in small and medium enterprises, creating your own business, building it. That is that is what I've done. From scratch.

13:37 that I would have had a very hard time doing in any other society, and I thank the country, I'm very grateful for what the United States stands for in that regard. Байвс that become far, far harder and Also very importantly that is very visible to people, and it's visible to people.

13:56 In a few different ways. It's visible because people have been self separating more. They're in more gated communities. They're in more Environments, whether it's clubs and institutions that do not intermingle the way they used to.

14:12 So that's one. Number two. They're spending much more time online and so they're sort it algorithmically. To people that are much more like them and they also see the kind of life that they're supposed to have. That the CEOs and the billiaires and the influencers have or pretend they have.

14:30 And they feel very inadequate. Compared to that. And then they also experience The corporatization

14:40 of day to day life Where Еври аспект Of what you sпіerence. Companies are able to squeeze

14:50 Micro Targeting. To get more money. From those that can afford to pay it. And so your experience in air travel

15:00 Your experience in hotels Your experience at Disney World Your experience anywhere you might go as an American has become maximally segregated. On the back of the people that can pay the absolute most.

15:16 And the people that can't, and that makes most Americans pretty pissed off. It feels kind of un American. So Yeah, I I think that there's a lot of agreement. Among most Americans That the system that presently exists is captured.

15:33 by powerful networked wealthy people And most Americans don't like that. And AI is You know, creating its its own wedge, right? I mean, it's this revolutionary tool that disrupts the world of work and an extraordinary wealth generating mechanism that is accelerating this this economic disparity. So A AI's interesting. So social media

15:57 Definitely accelerated that insecurity and anxiety. AI, of course, everyone that uses it, it's just blowing smoke up your ass. No matter how bad your idea I is very self affirming. I in a way that clearly

16:15 parents would recognize as bad. Right. Like you you need kids to understand that most of the things are hard and that they can fail and not all their ideas are good ones and there are consequences of screwing up and then you try harder. AI does not do that. Because AI is programmed to maximize engagement and for you to like it.

16:36 So what AI is doing to society. is very deeply dysfunctional. But it might not Increase anxiety. It it might actually move in the other direction.

16:51 And just increase false consciousness. And you know Narcissism and Other things that will not serve us well as a society, but may not drive this specific thing. That we are thinking about на on the other side.

17:07 There are a lot of people. that are gonna have Um their jobs Um Changed.

17:15 En perhaps displaced. When I see Jamie Diamond, who is you know of the American CEOs that are not tech CEOs. Seems to be the most Like forward thinking on this. Um say look, I m in ten years, and twenty years.

17:33 You know, you're gonna have all this wealth and people are gonna be working like, you know, half time, so three and a half days a week as opposed to five. And isn't that great. Well It it would be great if we had a society like Europe. Where people aren't

17:48 Only thinking about how they can maximize wealth. And instead had a broader view of well being. That included family and community and instances. And our and if we and if we worship money in the markets, again, if if I we go back to the question you started this with. Which is that well the market's doing great, so it doesn't mean America's doing great.

18:11 Um America's In trouble if that's where we're heading. So, I mean, there are so many um business leaders that I talk with. American business leaders Who referred to Europe as a museum.

18:24 Where there is nothing we could possibly learn from Europe. Because they don't have productivity, they don't have efficiency, they don't have growth, they don't have entrepreneurialism. Their tech is crap, all of that. And and yet Um

18:38 From a social Perspective. From a civic engagement and morality perspective, actually, a lot of European societies in very different ways. The Nordics in their way, the Spaniards in their way But they actually have a much better shot.

18:56 Of Of adapting. to what AI means for humanity Than the United States presently does. Um, even though the Americans are absolutely In the lead.

19:09 in using AI to drive wealth and innovation and all the rest, which we need. Which we need. Ian's snapshot of America at two hundred and fifty years old isn't simple, even though each point he makes is logical. AI is dysfunctional. Yes. But we need it. Yes. So how do we reconcile those things? And what sort of revolution might America be moving towards in 2026?

19:36 We'll talk about that more after the break. Stay with us. Wired Newsroom is known for award-winning reporting on how technology shapes our world. On Wire's Uncanny Valley, we take that curiosity even further. Each week, journalists from Wired break down the biggest stories in tech while speaking directly with the people building, challenging, and reshaping the future.

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20:20 Humans will never be more intelligent than AI. There can be two types of companies. Those are great at AI and those that went out of business because they weren't. How do we build a future? That is human centered. I'm Rana El Calyubi.

20:36 And on my podcast Pioneers of AI, we answer that question and so many more. As an AI scientist, entrepreneur, and investor, I know what it takes to build AI that works for everyone. Every week, I sit down with the pioneers shaping our future. And we take you behind the scenes of the AI that's transforming our lives. Find pioneers of AI wherever you tune in. Hey listeners, Bob here. If you listen to Rapid Response on Masters of Scale, you may be missing half the show because every Friday we release a second Rapid Response exclusively in the Rapid Response feed.

21:17 The guests and topics are just as compelling and timely from Ford CEO to NASA's administrator to the lessons from The Devil Wears Prada. It takes about 10 seconds to find, just search rapid response wherever you listen to podcasts and hit follow to make sure you never miss an episode. I hope to see you there. Before the break, political scientist Ian Bremmer outlined some of the challenges facing the United States on its 250th birthday. Now we talk about what he's hopeful about, the revolution that he thinks the United States needs in 2026, and the role that tech and business play. Plus the defiant way he plans to celebrate on July 4th. Let's jump back in.

22:07 You've talked about how the the most important new global leaders aren't countries, they're they're technology companies in in a lot of ways. Is there some stability that that provides because they're looking out like oh they need a healthy population and a healthy marketplace and a healthy open trade. Or or is it Yeah, I don't know, is it is it scary? Is it dangerous? Where where where's the balance on that?

22:32 The there's no balance yet. Um and You know, governments Uh Exist.

22:40 At least in principle, to take care of citizens. And defend citizens. Um while companies Or not. They have many different stakeholders. They're shareholders.

22:54 They're workers. Their customers. But very infrequently will they really think about um the a responsibility to society at whole and and one of the big problems I have with a lot of these technology companies is how socialist they are.

23:13 Uh I mean they're very capitalist when they make profits. But whenever they're responsible. Directly responsible for social ills. Suddenly they're not capitalists anymore. Suddenly it's like oh no no that uh the government should pay for that. Or or or you should pay for that.

23:31 Or or your your kids. Should pay for that. But not but not us. Like w what w w why are you suddenly scared of capitalism? Well, I mean like we Ви ні артекнологі компанії.

23:45 To be capitalists when they have negative externalities and costs that come directly From The product that they are developing. Um and that they are putting into

23:57 The ecosystem and this was Just as true. For the oil companies. And carbon as it is for Um the cigarette companies

24:08 And tobacco smoke. Um as it is for AI companies. And and society at large. So if you're a an AI company and you're spending tons of money on Compute and data centers and energy.

24:24 You should be prepared to Invest in similar ways. In community in But helping people who are transitioning from the job market of the old to the job market of the new.

24:37 Well, I mean they're not. Um, so I mean, should they? Ideally that should be the role of the government. And and you want A government that effectively regulates So that the companies don't have to do things that they are not actually structured to do.

24:56 'Cause they're not good at it, right? They're short term. Um, they focus on, you know, they've got market cyclicality and they've got fundraising rounds that they need to prioritize and they're always talking their book and all of this stuff, right? And and so we've got three sorts of governance out there. We've got the The American system, which is great for entrepreneurs. But where the private sector essentially pays for and captures the regulatory environment the government.

25:26 where the government actually captures the private sector. And so they determine what the private sector can and can't do, who they're gonna fund, which sectors are strategic, which aren't. And then you've got the European system Um where the government is an independent arbiter. That really is trying to regulate in favor of society. Now, here's the issue. That the former two drive a lot more growth.

25:51 And you need growth to pay for the things that the European system wants to actually do for society. The first two also happened to be where AI And is dominant. You'd be much more likely to get Series of regulations that would be safer for society.

26:11 Вити європей стал систем, є маслі. To get the AI that would drive it. In a European style system to begin with, so we're stuck in this weird. situation in America Where the technology companies are essentially self regulating and self governing at this point.

26:31 And And you know, I think this is gonna be A an essential driver of politics in twenty twenty eight and the campaign coming up. But Another two and a half years of this.

26:43 Given how fast AI is moving. Is gonna be very, very disruptive. Uh and will we create reactions in society that I I don't think technology companies will like. I don't want this this two hundred and fiftieth birthday uh uh not to have any presents or cake. So like are there things that give you hope? Are there things that you're optimistic about? Do you do you have a vision for how this all might come together in a way that Yeah.

27:09 Is positive or That is hopeful. Well, of course. I mean the worst thing Would be if you had all of this системі.

27:19 Change. Um And Americans feeling like the system is inadequate. And no political revolution as a response. That would be horrible. So I mean I understand that this is a period of great uncertainty and volatility.

27:33 But it it's obvious why. Uh I mean, i this happens both domestically and globally. Is that you will have A set of institutions An architecture.

27:45 Values, priorities, ліers. And they are created to address a a certain balance of power that exists at a period of time. The balance of power changes.

27:57 The world changes, the country changes. Um, but the institutions are sticky. And as that gap becomes s too great. You end up In a recession, not an economic recession, but a political recession.

28:12 En and so we are now facing in the United States. We're in A political recession. And and the American people are reacting to that. Demanding

28:23 More radikel change. And and what I wanna see And is people fighting? For what they believe in. I I we got an American pope. Right, Pope Leo.

28:35 And and his first Um you know, encyclical. Came out. Uh on AI. One of the most important

28:44 Human bings on this плане мор імпакт, мор інфлуенс. Actually talking about what we need. To make society function. And some of that's pretty revolutionary. But th this needs to be

28:59 A time. Of Of great change. Вот газ гат нас хір. Will not get us.

29:08 Another two hundred fifty years. Won't even get us another twenty five. Patriotism in this country Is having the courage Not just to say I love my country, but having the courage. To publicly say when your country is f

29:23 Yeah. That's what patriotism is. And We need Uh patriotic Americans to do precisely that now because it matters.

29:34 The idea of revolution which Which scares some people'cause it sounds like oh dramatic change. What you're saying is like This country needs the revolution, and revolution has always been part of the country. Yeah, I mean, again, we had a revolution to start the country. It was successful beyond our wildest dreams.

29:53 And and and and we and we revere that. And then with F D R After the Gilded Age. With a new deal. And the creation of an administrative state.

30:07 That allowed generations of Americans to have a better shot. That was a successful поліка революцію. So three times the charm. But Trump isn't the right guy. And a lot of people believed in him, you know. I mean, he was able to build himself up, um, and he has some genius. He's not the political revolution we need.

30:28 Um, but we still need a political revolution. Does it need to be structural, or is this really like a leadership revolution, like a vision? Revolution's recently that have been successful had a leader attached to them, but not all. А мін, тер'спень, а грин революція. Into post carbon. The Chinese are now leading the world in that, but it's happening. And that was started

30:54 At a grassroots. Level. And Trump has helped, by the way. I mean there's no question that Launching this ill fated war in Iran is gonna do more to move the world away from oil and gas long term than Then a a Trump will end up being

31:09 the biggest American president driver for green energy In history. Uh, not intentionally, but nonetheless. And that that's a really positive thing. For July fourth. W will you celebrate America? How how will you celebrate?

31:24 Absolutely. So it's funny. Um I um again especially as a kid who grew up in the projects and who now, you know, lives with extrem Staggering privilege. I have a summer house in Nantucket. They close down Main Street and everybody gets their like with their water pistols and the the the the fire truck comes down and they they soak everybody, the whole island comes out. But in the morning the Unitarian church Does a reading

31:49 And this year Just just a few days ago. Um, the head of the Unitarian Church said that that they were gonna protest and they weren't gonna do that for the fourth of July because they're not proud of a lot of things happening politically in the country right now. Voter rights act, supreme court, all this sort of stuff. And I I for the first time in my life, I publicly came out

32:12 Like on social media. And so I strongly disagree with that. Just because the American president is politicizing The fourth of July in ways that I consider completely inappropriate does not mean it's okay. For the other side to do that too. No.

32:29 We Have something to celebrate. And and and that is that We have been successful. For two hundred fifty years with this most unlikely human experiment.

32:42 And to fix it, we're gonna have to change a bunch of things, but you still come together. And so as it turns out that there's a different church on the island that has decided that since the Unitarians aren't doing it, that they're gonna do it instead. So I'll go into that one. Works for me. Well, Ian, as always, it is great to talk with you and get your insights.

33:03 Thanks. Thanks, Bob. Good to talk to you, man. I like the image of Ian and the Nantucket community gathering together to hear the declaration of independence. It feels old fashioned and reassuring. But what sticks with me most is a comment he made with the opposite sentiment. This needs to be a time of great change. What Ian is saying is that however impactful and influential America's past and present may be, it is at a crossroads. It needs to refresh its revolutionary spirit, as he describes it. And while that kind of upheaval may be uncomfortable, it's also inevitable.

33:42 As business leaders, we embrace change because change is necessary for growth. and ongoing relevance. As citizens, we need to be equal and bold. So as people raise their voices in praise of a 250 year experiment, let's remember that experimentation is messy and unpredictable and unsettling. and that it's also exciting, energizing, and above all, necessary. For those listening in the US, I hope you and yours have a great July 4th holiday. I'm Bob Safian.

34:15 Thanks for listening. Rapid response is a wait what original. I'm Bob Safian, our executive producer is Eve Tro. Our senior producer is Alex Morris.

34:35 And our associate producer is Masha Makutonina. Mixing and Mastering by Aaron Bastanelli and Brian Pugh. Our theme music is by Ryan Holiday. Our head of podcasts is Lital Malad. For more, visit rapidresponsshow.com.