Money Expert: Buying A House Is A Mistake! Becoming Rich is Simple But You Won’t Do It!

0:00 Renting versus owning a home is the biggest financial decision most people make in their life. So we're gonna talk about all of the unrecoverable costs of owning a home, including property taxes, maintenance costs, which is the one that I think people underestimate the most. And then there's also emergency costs. I've got a whole stack of them, as well as a five percent rule to figure out if renting is a better financial decision. We'll go through that. What else have we got? So this is something that people just don't think enough about which is the top ten financial mistakes. That I think people make. For example, tax planning opportunities. Like there are simple things that people can do to minimize the amount of tax they're paying. We'll go through those. Ben Felix's firm manages the money of more than three thousand people, ranging from people with huge amounts of money and not so much money. His whole thesis is giving people money advice that is based on academic research. Our brains, our psychology. absolutely gets in the way of making good long-term financial decisions. And today we're gonna answer the big money questions like what should I invest in? A lot of people believe they need to have a lot of background information before they can start investing, but I would argue that people who know just a little bit, they will be better long term investors. There's a ton of evidence supporting that this will outperform most other investment.

1:06 And also, what is the mentality, the mindset of people that end up making money over the long term. Psychology is important for determining what your financial goals are. So this is a framework that we developed to elicit higher quality goals. What would you say to young people that are thinking about their financial strategy? A lot of young people feel a lot of pressure to save, but there is research suggesting that it's probably suboptimal for young people to save, which we'll talk about more about later. And then in a world of AI where everything is changing so quickly, what should I be doing with my money right now? Ben Felix has the answer. Guys, I've got a favor to ask before this episode begins. The algorithm, if you follow a show, will deliver you the best episodes from that show very prominently in your feed. So when we have our best episodes on this show

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2:20 Lots of people. out in the world talking about personal finance and investing in all these adjacent subjects. What is the approach you take that you think is Different. Two

2:30 Lots of the other sort of finance experts that are on YouTube that are giving people advice. What I think and the approach that I've always tried to take is what can we take from Academic literature, very smart people who spent a lot of time thinking about these things. What can we take from them? and apply to making good financial decisions for a typical person.

2:48 And what are the key questions that you've sought to answer for the audiences that you have? is renting versus owning a home. So that's always been Big asset allocation is another big one. How much should you invest of your of your long term money that you can uh afford to take some risk with? And an another important question people wonder about is Uh, why should I not do this other investment strategy that seems very attractive?

3:10 And who who are we appealing to with this conversation? Is it just people that have lots of money? Or is it No, I think these questions need to be answered. I mean the the renting versus owning a home one is applicable to pretty much everyone because that is the biggest financial decision most households will make in their lives, regardless of what their Net worth this. But investing, or what should you do with your long term investments? That's applicable to anybody.

3:30 Anybody that's going to be saving for their future, whether they have ten thousand dollars or ten million dollars, the same principles apply. And how much of this Is Comes back to psychology.

3:43 So I like to say investing's been solved. We're gonna use index funds. That's it. The hard part is actually doing that. Because our brains, our psychology absolutely gets in the way of making good long term financial decisions.

3:55 Well our our brains are designed for survival. They're not designed for thinking about long-term abstract like taking your money today, investing in the stock market. Ignoring all the stuff that happens in between and then having Money left over later. Uh to to fund your

4:11 Retirement. That's so interesting. Ca a lot of the time people talk about tactics and strategies, but I guess underpinning your ability to execute on any of those tactics or strategies are one's own psychology. And is there academic research about The best sort of mental approach to take towards money and finance and investing. So one of the best approaches, and it's a little bit counterintuitive, is to not look at your investments. There is a an academic paper showing that The more people look at their investments.

4:37 The less risk they take. And the lower returns they earn. Because when you look at your investments every day, the stock market Goes up and down. We know that. If you're looking every day at your portfolio and it's down five percent, up six percent and

4:49 Going up and down all the time. That can be very stressful and it makes it seem like The stock market is very risky. And so people will invest less. In the stock market.

4:58 In reality, for for long term investors who can invest in stocks, buy and hold for a very long period of time. They're a lot safer than people think. Mm-hmm. So we've got some Props here for some demonstrations we're gonna do. Could you just give explain to me the high level. of what these things are on the table in the different frameworks we're gonna go through.

5:16 Sure. So we have a bunch of things here. This is one of my favorite But I Bring up

5:23 In a lot of my videos. So this is the the perma model, which comes from positive psychology. Psychology is important for investing well. But it's also important for figuring out what your long term investing strategy should be. We'll go through that. What else have we got here? This is the top ten financial Mistakes.

5:39 That I think people make. Oh this is the The three steps for investing your first ten thousand dollars. Okay. And we've got ten thousand dollars there, so you're gonna talk me through how we do that. Yep. As well.

5:49 We're gonna talk about all of the unrecoverable costs. Got a whole stack of them. That you incur when you own a home. Okay, and I I I guess this begs the question. Who is Ben Felix? What is your background and what is the education, the reference points, the experiences that you're drawing upon?

6:06 To give us this information today. Probably where it starts. for for being relevant is I I did a degree in mechanical engineering. And Northeastern University. And I say that's relevant because when I came into finance.

6:19 I wanted to approach it like an engineer. and a lot of finance, a lot of financial services of of investing and wealth management. is not approached like an engineer. It's approached. Like a I feel almost bad saying this, but it's it's approached like a like a car dealership.

6:34 Selling selling product. Uh so I was disappointed in that and and had to Find my On my own way. So they haven't got my best interests at heart.

6:43 In in a lot of cases I don't think so. I started spending a lot of time reading through academic literature so that I could be very confident and comfortable that the advice that I was giving to people. Was Good high quality advice. And where is the best place to start?

6:57 Is it in the psychology? Is it one of these frameworks? Is it somewhere else? Is there a background understanding of the economy one needs to To get going. That is a great question. I don't think so. And I think that's where a lot of people get stuck.

7:08 where they believe that they need to have a lot of background information before they can start investing. Uh, they may do research on specific industries. They may look at like the energy sector so they can build out an energy portfolio as one. Example. Investing The way that I would say is sensible for most people, which is just using low cost index funds, capturing market returns.

7:27 the w the market returns have been there and they're going to continue to be there. They should continue to be there in the long run. Uh doing that doesn't require a lot of background knowledge. I would argue that

7:39 Just a little bit, just enough. They just know that index funds are sensible and they have enough conviction they can stick with that. They will be better long term investors. than someone who knows enough to hurt themselves. What would you say to young people that are thinking about

7:52 their financial strategy. D would you say that someone in their early twenties, twenty one years old, should adopt a completely different approach to money based on what you've just shown me. Versus someone that's fifty one years old. It's gonna be different for sure. I I think this is a It's a tricky subject, but a lot of young people feel a lot of pressure to save.

8:12 And that might be saving for their retirement. It might be saving to buy a home. But they feel a lot of pressure from their parents. uh and just from society in general that they need to be saving money that if they're not saving money they're being irresponsible. But again, if we come back to academic research There is research suggesting that it it's

8:29 Probably sub optimal for young people to save. General point. is that you should save more when you have a higher income. Man save less when you have a lower income. And

8:38 What that ends up meaning is that young people May not need to save, or may not need to save as much as they feel pressured to save. The reason this topic is tricky. Is that

8:47 Well what I just said is true. It can cause bad habits. Where if people spend all of their income. And then don't have that shift towards saving at some point. then they'll they'll end up in a difficult position later on.

9:00 In life. Someone who's fifty It's gonna depend on their situation. If they're the person who I just mentioned who never saved. They're in a tough position and and they are going to need to save

9:10 A lot. In order to have Some wealth. Later on in life. But if they've already saved and they have wealth.

9:16 Then they can focus more on Some of these topic. And you've got the the ten money mistakes people make here. Can you run me through those ones and just let me know if any of them are t particularly pertinent or interesting that we should dive deeper into? So this this one's controversial.

9:33 It's not earning enough. Money. A lot of people feel like they don't have an option. That they're not earning enough money because that's just

9:42 the way things are and there's nothing that they can do about it. I don't think that's necessarily true, investing in your human capital and that can be formal education. It can be gaining skills, it can be becoming an entrepreneur. Those are all ways to make your your own self. A more valuable asset.

9:58 to increase the value of your human capital and allow you to earn more. Money. That's a that's a big one. And I think people who get stuck in the in in the feeling or the thought that they do not have the ability to increase their income. And that this is just the way things are. I think that can be very problematic.

10:14 I've always thought of it across these sort of five buckets, the first two buckets that we attempt to fill when we're starting our careers are our knowledge and then our skills. And kind of like when knowledge is applied, it becomes a skill. Uh and these two first buckets are so imperative because They can almost never be unfilled.

10:31 Whereas the other three buckets, which is your resources, your network, and your reputation, you can have career fluctuations and earthquakes that cause those buckets to unfill. So as like it you were saying earlier on about young people, one of the things I've always thought is like when you're young, just like optimise fulfilling your knowledge and skills as much as you possibly can. And actually, I guess the the level of nuance there is Acquiring Uh a rare

10:52 But complementary stack of knowledge and skills. That the market values. And I think over the long term, you know. this doesn't apply to everybody'cause things happen in life and bad things can happen. But over the long term I think life tends to

11:05 Land you pretty much In and around. The value of And the rarity and the compl complementarity of those knowledge and skills as it relates to the market's demands. I that's absolutely true. There's doubt on this too. Where we we know that that there is a mechanical relationship, at least historically.

11:21 We can talk about the future, but historically there's been a mechanical relationship between formal education or trade edu education. And lifetime earnings. And we also know that certain degree types Like engineering, finance, uh business. Some of their sciences.

11:36 have higher lifetime earnings than other degrees. So it's You're I think you're absolutely right. There are and the hard part is we don't know what exactly those degrees and skills that are gonna be the highest paying in the future are going to be. Ten years ago we might have said software developers. Today we might Not?

11:51 But even you as an example. So you did engineering and then you did finance. And now you've added this other string to your bow. Which is you know how to make content on YouTube. And that makes you as a finance expert and professional and CIO. So extremely rare.

12:06 It almost makes you like one of One hundred one hundred on planet earth, maybe. I this is what I mean by rare and complimentary skills. You could have just learnt more finance. I don't think that would have moved you up this sort of earning ladder.

12:19 But because you added this really rare skill of being able to make content. Two. You you are the skill stack. I'm guessing it made you money. It did, it has, and I I continue to be paid well. And you know, it was

12:33 Please don't. But if you were to go back and watch my old videos, which are still up, I am so rigid and nervous. And I when I was. And it took probably years of recording and uh we do a podcast too, so just being in front of the camera For me to feel

12:47 Pretty good. I mean I pr it probably took me three years to smile on camera. Really? So yes, that was a skill that I acquired through Just Practice, I guess. I say this because I really want people to think about how rare their skill stack is.

13:00 It's not something we're taught. And then also one of the things I noticed, I used to work in a a biotech company for a little while. While I was in between things. And we were looking for a writer. A biotech writer. No.

13:11 The other writers that we've hired at our other companies might have been paid f I know, fifty thousand dollars, whatever it is. For a biotech writer. We would pay them a quarter of a million. And all the only difference is the biotech writer had like some Based they didn't have to go to medical school. They just needed experience in writing about biotech. Yep.

13:29 And it five X their earnings. So this other point is you might have a skill stack, but are you selling them? On the right market. And even me, the first part of my career was marketing. I was helping Uber and Fizzy Drinks company and Dress Seller company.

13:44 sell their dresses. As I just said, the the second little stop I took in my career was helping biotech companies with marketing. that are about to IPO my first contract with one of those companies was worth eight million. Six months work.

13:58 And I j it made it was a real pivotal moment in my career where I go, it's not just the skills you have, it's like where you the the market and industry where you sell those skills. can wildly change your your, as you say on that card, your earning potential. Yeah. And as you say, that this is something that you don't have full control over because you could do all of those things and not find work as a biotech writer, but putting yourself in that position, I think does increase the odds.

14:21 What's the second one you've got there? Second one is not Saving enough. touch on this a little bit. Y young people maybe don't need to save, but At some point you do have to start saving.

14:33 And the tricky thing about saving is that wealth compounds over time. And if you're not saving out enough, you're missing out on compounding and it gets a lot harder to catch up with the amount of savings you would have otherwise had. If you started. Earlier. Uh so that that's a big one. And uh some people will wake up when they're

14:50 fifty, fifty five, maybe even sixty, and realize. They haven't saved enough. But by that time There's nothing that you can do about it, or very little that you can do about it. There's a lot of parallels with health here, where if you eat poorly and don't exercise, you can wake up when you're fifty five and you can have Heart disease.

15:06 That is very difficult to reverse. And it's the same effect. It's compounding over time. I think health and wealth have a lot of parallels. Anyway so not saving enough. can be very problematic because it is so hard to reverse the effects of it once you've realized it's a problem.

15:19 Interesting. I read a book on called The flight edge by I think it's Jeff Olson when I was eighteen. Which talks exactly about that. I think it uses one of the analogy it uses is like brushing your teeth. Don't brush them today, it's fine. Don't brush them every day this week, you're fine. Don't brush them every day this month, you're fine.

15:33 But in five years you're fucked. That's right. In five years time you can't like start brushing them then. Yeah. You're in a dental chair, having them ripped out. I guess finance is the same in this regard. Exactly. Yeah. Number three is not setting financial goals. Okay. That's we we we talked a little bit about this earlier as well. If people don't set goals, they will do things like

15:52 think they need to earn more money. Because Because Because that's what you do. Or they'll think they need to buy a house. Because that's what you're supposed to do. But they won't step back and reflect on what are the components of a good life for them.

16:05 What do they want their life to look like? And what would they need to do to achieve that? And if you don't go through that exercise. You can end up spending years Or Dollars.

16:14 Achieving things that Don't really matter to you. And again, because of compounding, by the time you realize those things didn't matter. That's time and money that you can't get back.

16:23 So how do I go about setting good financial goals? What is the process there? So this is the the process that we created. It's three steps. List your goals. Okay, so what does that look like? So you're gonna sit down

16:39 with a piece of paper or we we built an app for this uh that we use with with clients. Uh you Just list out your goals. So I could say I want to be a dad. Uh you know, I wanna buy a Ferrari.

16:50 Yeah. We want to go on holiday to Cancun. Yep. Mm. I wanna be able to retire at fifty. Those kinds of girls. Yep. Now step two, so you've got your list of goals.

17:00 you're gonna double the list. Double it. Yep. Why you came up with I think four goals just now, you're gonna write down eight goals because this forces you to think. Harder. About what other import what other goals might be important to you.

17:12 And that research does show that this elicits more goals that people later identify as being at least as meaningful as the initial goals that they listed. And then the last thing, we're gonna come back to the perma model. So the perma model is a five factor model of human flourishing. If You Have these components.

17:28 contributing to your life. There's a very good chance. that you'll live a good, satisfying life. I think you've you've lived Through this. Experience where you've seen that

17:38 Wealth. Does not lead to A good life. Mm-hmm. And so

17:42 What does there've been a whole bunch of really good research on this and it does suggest that Positive emotion. is one big piece of it. What does that mean?

17:51 It's literally enjoying what you're doing and feeling good throughout the day. Engagement. You could Probably argue that we're getting some of that right now where you're doing something that you enjoy doing that's maybe a little bit challenging, but it's uh your skill level. It's the idea of getting into flow.

18:05 Uh I know I get that when I do Podcast interviews, want to do research when I'm sitting down and and writing a video script. relationships is is having good, strong relationships with with People who are close to you in your life and that can be friends, it can be family members, it can be colleagues. Meaning is being part of something that is bigger than yourself.

18:24 That can be a lot of different things. For some people it's religion. For some people it's community. For some people it's their own business. Mm-hmm. And accomplishment. Is

18:33 Achieving Hard things. Setting goals and achieving them. You're gonna look at the items of the per model. You're gonna look at those as categories. and think about what other goals you may have that fit into those categories.

18:45 That's called a categorical promption. And again, there's evidence behind that, helping people elicit more meaningful goals. So one of the things I said is buy a Ferrari. Again, these aren't my gods, I don't care about Ferraris, but in case they want to sponsor the podcast, I don't care about Ferraris. Um But say the Ferrari thing. Do do I have to find where it sits with in terms of positive emotion, engagement, relationships, meaning, accomplishment? It would be wise to, and this is why I think this framework is so important, because you might realize that a Ferrari does not contribute to any of these things. It might, though.

19:12 Like maybe you take it to the track. And you spend hours. Raising it. And that would be engagement. Maybe you have a bunch of buddies who have Ferraris.

19:20 And you want to be part of that friend group. So that's relationships. Yeah. Okay. I mean positive emotions, but that might only last a couple of days. Yeah, well it's the hedonic final idea. That's exactly it. Yeah. And then accomplishment. I mean. It's not really an accident. If it was a goal that you've had since you were five years old, maybe that you could call that accomplishment, maybe.

19:37 Okay. So I fit my My financial goals, my life goals into the PAMA model. As a way to understand What my financial goal should be. Okay.

19:48 How many people in the general public do you think have actually thought about what a good life for them looks like? Not a not enough. Not many. I think everyone's people are so busy. with their day to day to day lives. And I know this is true for me and my family too. It's really, really hard. to step back and have this kind of thought discussion about what you actually want your life to look like. 'Cause I was just thinking about that. I was thinking I don't even know if I've got um really clearly defined

20:11 life goals for myself. Like I think most of us just kind of act on how we feel. Yeah. And that can somewhat drift us towards the short term. Like if I just Yeah. What what's gonna make me feel good today? And do that every day. I don't know.

20:27 Some might argue that you have to be a bit more long term thinking. It can ha it can help, right?'Cause it it it can help you from making decisions that you might regret. In the future. Mm-hmm. Yeah,'cause when I look at this perma model, there's some things on here that I've optimized for, which have sacrificed the other things. That's it. That's it. Yeah. Like I might I might have over indexed on this like

20:44 Achieving things, but it might have cost me some relationships. So what's the fourth mistake people make? Yeah, so this is related to what we were just talking about, but it's it's overspending on the wrong things. Okay. When you think about what is a good life for you.

20:59 And you realize if you realize that you're spending on things that are not contributing to that. Which is resulting in you not being able to save toward things that w would contribute. That's probably not a great position to find yourself in. So it could be

21:13 Spending twelve dollars on a an iced coffee. Every morning. And not enjoying it. Because you couldn't get positive emotion out of that. You're like rushing to work, chugging down the twelve dollar coffee every day. That's probably not contributing to

21:25 A good life. Mm-hmm. Number five. Mm might be One of the bigger ones. Which is

21:34 Not taking investment. Risks. And that's really the the stock market. has delivered these incredible long term returns. And on expectation it should continue delivering strong returning.

21:46 Not participating that in that. Is A huge mistake and it's a mistake that many, many people make. A lot of people don't invest in stocks at all. And a lot of people who do invest in the stock market don't invest enough in stocks. They have very conservative

21:59 Portfolios. And that has a very large implicit cost. by not participating in the stock market when you could be, you're giving up a huge amount of uh of economic gain. How do you quantify that for the average person in terms of what kind of Gain they're giving up.

22:14 The size of the game they're giving out. Well, you can look at the historical returns on stocks. Uh and you can also look at the expected returns. on stocks. So let's say it's uh let's say it's seven percent. We expect stocks to turn in the in the long run. And if you could get

22:30 Two percent. by sitting in cash that five percent difference. Is your opportunity cost. of not investing in the stock market when you otherwise could be. Five percent compounded over the long term is

22:41 Enormous. So say I have ten thousand dollars. Uh and I invest it. Um The stock market and I'm getting what did you say eight percent?

22:52 Seven say seven percent. Much. Is that Let's have a look. So I've done

23:00 ten thousand dollars, which is what we have here. Mm-hmm. Investing in the stock market at seven percent return over forty years. That would be A hundred and fifty thousand dollars. Do you know what's um do you know what's quite scary when I think about that? Is does that that kinda means that today, if I spend ten thousand dollars

23:18 I'm actually spending one hundred and fifty thousand dollars. Yes. Which makes me not want to spend any money on anything. Yeah. 'Cause if you buy I don't know what costs ten what does what cost ten thousand dollars, like a A a small car.

23:31 Yeah, maybe yeah. You're actually spending one hundred and fifty thousand dollars. when you factor in the fact that if you put that ten thousand dollars into the stock market You could have made seven percent a year and it would have turned into one hundred and fifty thousand dollars. Yeah. That's w that's one side of the coin. Yeah, I think you also have to think about any enjoyment or utility that you get out of that car. If that car lets you drive to a job you couldn't have otherwise done. It may have a significant economic value too in the long run.

23:55 As one example. You know, I've got a coffee here. Some people spend Ten dollars on a Cup of coffee with Frapper Chappa things and all that stuff. Looking at that over the long term. In forty years.

24:07 if you'd not bought that coffee and put it into the stock market and got just seven percent return. You would have had a hundred and fifty dollars. So when you buy that ten dollar coffee, you're actually but theoretically Spending one hundred and fifty dollars in forty years' time. So you better really enjoy the coffee.

24:24 Is there a bit of a fear that it makes us not want to spend money on any and on and anything and therefore we end up having a sh shitty life in the near term? No, I I I think that's why this this framework, that's why the the perma framework for thinking about these decisions is so important. Because you do want to have Positive emotion. And engagement, relationships, meaning and accomplishment. Those are all really, really important. And yes, that money could be worth more in the future. but it can also be a worth a lot today if you're optimizing on the right things.

24:49 What else? Number six. It's another big one. So not taking enough risk is is important. Taking the wrong risks. With your investments. So I t we do we just ran some numbers about a seven percent stock market return.

25:01 You can basically get that using an index fund. The problem is a lot of people don't invest in index funds. They uh Pick individual stocks. hoping to earn really high returns. They trade individual stock options. Uh they trade crypto tokens.

25:17 all that kind of stuff. And a lot of those types of risks have negative expected returns, or they have high costs. If you're doing a lot of trading. And that can really erode long term investment growth. What about buying a house?

25:32 Is that a good investment? I wouldn't consider buying a house to live in. An investment? It's sort it's sort of is. You get an asset. But you're really you're buying an asset that funds your housing consumption. It kinda pays you a dividend.

25:47 That's sort of like Getting rent. From the house that you own? When you do the side by side comparison, which I think is the only way to think about this. If you compare

25:57 Buying a house. So that means i in in Canada you'd usually up for a 20% down payment. You put twenty percent down your house. You take out a mortgage to finance the rest. You know, living in the house, you're paying your mortgage payment, you're paying for some maintenance costs, you're paying for property taxes.

26:13 Alternatively. You could have rented. The house. That twenty percent that went into buying The home?

26:20 could have been invested in the stock market. So again, we're back to the idea of opportunity costs. The other important thing here is that Renting typically has lower cash flow costs than Only. So these are

26:30 The unrecoverable costs. I'm owning a home. Mortgage interest. That's when you buy a house and you borrow To fund the purchase, you're paying interest to the bank.

26:40 That's a I I call these unrecoverable costs. That's money that you're paying. for the use of money in this case and you're not going to get those dollars back. It's gone. Opportunity costs. So that's what I just mentioned. Whatever equity you have in a home.

26:57 is equity that you could have otherwise invest in the stock market. The capital portion the principle, the the price of homes. Has increased Around inflation at the rate of inflation maybe a little bit higher historically.

27:10 Stocks have far outpaced. Inflation. So by having money sitting in a house as opposed to investing in the stock market. You have what is called an opportunity cost. You're not earning returns you could have otherwise been earning.

27:23 So that opportunity cost is one of the largest costs of Only a hope. So I've got mortgage interest. The opportunity cost of equity. Property taxes are another big unrecoverable cost.

27:36 Property taxes vary depending on where you are. But it's say between point five percent and one percent. Maybe some sometimes a little bit higher. You get utilities and some services in exchange for it. But it's again it's an unrecoverable cost. You pay that You've got nothing left afterwards.

27:51 We've got maintenance costs. Oh, this is the annoying one. This is the it's it's the annoying one, and it's the one that I think people underestimate the most. I started making content about renting versus owning a home years ago. I used to say one percent was a reasonable estimate of maintenance. And people would push back and say that's way too high. There's a bunch of academic literature on this too. That's it.

28:11 Says it. could well be over two percent. I think that's probably a more reasonable estimate. Having been a homeowner now for six years. After renting prior to that? I'm fairly confident, at least in my case, the maintenance costs are far higher than

28:24 one or two percent of the property value per year. Yeah, I mean I I bought my first home. Oh a while ago and uh Fucking hell. I d I didn't think about the gardening and the pool pump gets broken and then

28:36 There's a crack in the the patio outside and then the heating system breaks and then Everything just seems to break. And it's always breaking. It's always breaking. Every time I go back there, which is it's in a different country, I'm ch the first week I'm just spent looking at the things that have broken since I was last here. Like making a list of the new expenses. And it's never cheap. No. If I was renting that wouldn't be my problem. No.

28:58 There's also like another cost here which we don't talk about, which is like The time you waste. On the Maintenance. Like when we think of maintenance cost, I imagine people are thinking about

29:09 The fees to fix things. But actually the time I spend having phone calls and speaking to people for me is is worth a lot more than just the costs. But anyway, yeah, maintenance cost. Yeah, the coordination is huge. And y you could outsource that, but that would

29:23 Be expensive and Depending on how valuable your your time is, it it could make sense to outsource it. But I I agree with you. I do the same thing. I spend time on the phone finding which contractor is gonna come in and fix this thing. Mm-hmm. And then you have to wait for them and then maybe they're late. Yeah.

29:38 So that's maintenance costs. We have emergency cost here, which is Really. Uh a subset of maintenance costs. So you can have big things like the roof needs to be redone. Are the foundation cracks, whatever, those can be very significant.

29:50 And one of the challenges with those types of big costs is that you kinda have to have liquidity available to fund them. Mm. And that means that you have to have cash. Sitting Somewhere, or at least some liquid assets sitting somewhere. So probably not invest in the stock market.

30:04 Which also has an implied cost to it. Which is more opportunity cost, right? More more opportunity cost, exactly. And then this one's this one's Interesting. And and this is one that I don't think I appreciated until I own my own home. Which is renovation spending.

30:18 We talked about maintenance. When you fix something in your house. You don't just fix it to get it back to the baseline level that it was at before. Yeah. You make it a little bit nicer. You're right. I never did that when I was renting. So the side by side.

30:29 So you run the side by side comparison. You account for all of those unrecoverable costs that the owner has. You account for the renter investing in the stock market and investing the cost difference, the cash flow cost difference between renting and owning each month or or whatever frequency. And what you'll find. Yeah, and I've done this with projections. So looking at expected stock returns and expected real estate appreciation.

30:50 You can very easily show that there is an equivalence. There is a level of rent. where you are indifferent between renting and owning. I did a video years ago that has millions of views now. Where I I came up with this idea called the five percent rule.

31:05 So I took some of those costs. I took property taxes Maintenance costs. And the cost of capital. Which is the the opportunity cost and the cost of of borrowing.

31:15 I wrapped all that up. And said We've got roughly one percent for property taxes, roughly one percent for maintenance costs, which is probably way too low as we just talked about. And I said three percent for opportunity cost, which I think is also On the on the low end.

31:27 And you put all that together and you get Five percent. So I said okay, if you divide The price. But home.

31:35 By five percent. And then divide that number by By twelve. You will get. The monthly rent. that has equivalent that is equivalent to the unrecoverable cost of owning that home.

31:45 Okay, so let's do that. So I'm thinking of buying a three hundred thousand dollar house. Wha what's the math that I need to do to f figure out if it's better to rent? Multiply by five percent. And then divide by but but divide that by twelve. What about twelve? Okay.

31:59 You're brave. I usually have a rule to never do math live on a podcast. I can edit, so just in case. Okay, the result is one thousand two hundred and fifty. There you go. One thousand two hundred fifty is the equivalent rent. Where you're roughly break even between renting and owning. So if I could rent for one thousand two hundred fifty instead. Or less. Or less.

32:19 I should rent. Renting is a better financial decision. So this is an important part of this topic. We can show financial equivalence. And then just that is important. Like we can show that there is financial equivalence between renting and owning. I've done more uh robust versions of of this analysis since then. We have

32:35 PWL has a calculator on our website where you can see the the break even by putting specific numbers in instead of just doing this rough rule of thumb. 'Cause things will change it. For example, if your asset allocation is more conservative or more aggressive, that opportunity cost number can be different. If you're a taxable investor. meaning that you're taxed on your uh investment gains by investing in the stock market or the bond market? Your opportunity cost decreases.

32:58 Because the after tax expected return on stocks and bonds decreases relative to Uh homeownership. Five percent is a very rough. rule of Rule of thumb. Do you think for the average young person, let's say someone's I know, twenty five years old,

33:11 They should And they're thinking about building their wealth over the long term. Do you think they should buy be buying a house? as an investment, or sh should they be doing something else? I think for young people it's really tough. And it's tough for a couple of reasons. One is because home prices are high. You have to save up a lot of money to buy a house. Another one is that it can limit your mobility.

33:30 We've seen in in Toronto, in Canada, where I'm from Uh prices, condo prices in particular have plummeted. They've fallen off of a cliff. If you bought a condo in Toronto and you get a job offer somewhere outside of Canada.

33:44 What are you gonna do with that? Condo, that's that that's at a big loss. Mm. You kinda stuck. Yeah. Or you're have to try to rent it out and now you've got this this

33:53 Just difficult situation to deal with. Yeah, plus there are big transaction costs if you're if you're selling a place. So For young people, I do think that homeownership can be tricky because it can limit your mobility. Your your ability to go and find maybe higher paying work. It introduces a risk that you

34:08 probably don't need in your life because you may end up moving. Somewhere else. And then people. often move up where they want a condo today, but they're gonna want a house later. For my family, I I met my wife, I was renting a place, the first place we met in

34:23 A second place, a third place, and a fourth place. We went to four different places as we were having our family. We have four kids. And so our needs were changing over time. We needed a bigger The bigger condo. And then we had a townhouse, then we had a house. Yeah, but we just

34:36 The lease ended. And we gave notice and we left. We found the better rent that was more suitable for our needs. If we had been homeowners The amount we would have paid in transaction costs to do that would have been insane. Or we would have had to buy the house that we were gonna have forever.

34:48 much earlier, which would have introduced significant opportunity costs. That's one of those things that's just impossible to measure and because it's so intangible, but like the psychology of feeling like you can't Easily move. And I see this a lot actually with people that apply for jobs in our company is In the interview process, they'll say well I've just bought house in

35:08 In such city. And you can see this that sort of psychology is is um holding them back from taking an opportunity because they've made a an investment in a particular city. And so they might lose, as you say, like an opportunity in New York or LA or London because Mentally they feel committed to a place.

35:26 Yeah. Now the flip side of that. Is it if you're really sure. That you want to stay in one place. One of the best ways to accomplish that is by Who can be sure? Yeah, you can't.

35:36 But if if someone was really sure, maybe someone has maybe like me, I have four kids, they're all in the same school. Very unlikely that we would move. The other big mistake I think I made is I bought a holiday home. That was a tab. Well. I shouldn't say terrible idea, but kind of a terrible idea, in part because of the same reason, in part because it means you only go you only go on holiday to one place. Which is like defeats the point of a holiday. Yeah.

35:59 And it's I I have not done that. And the main reason is the mental overhead. I don't like Mm. Having to think about one.

36:06 Property. Mm-hmm. I can't imagine having things but a second one. That I'm not at such a dumb idea. I don't think it's a I don't know why I did it, especially when you're like young. It's like

36:16 The whole point is you can still walk up mountains and do things. You don't want to be sitting in a in the same house at Oh yeah. Than renters. Mm. Depends how you slice the data. If you control for property types and neighborhoods and all that kind of stuff.

36:33 No. They're not. If you don't control for those things I think owned homes do tend to be a little bit nicer and and better maintained. They do tend to be in better Neighborhoods. So uncontrolled.

36:44 renters are a little bit less happy. There's a there's Multiple studies on this. Statistics Canada has a really good one that does exactly that. They have controlled and uncontrolled uh life satisfaction differences for renters and owners. If you're a professional. Who is thinking about Buying a house in a nice neighborhood. Or renting a nice house in a nice neighborhood.

37:02 It's unlikely that you'll be happier. In either case. If you are forced to be a renter in a not very nice neighborhood because all you can afford You may be less happy. But it's not necessarily the renting that's making you less happy.

37:15 Is there any particular group of people that you think should be buying a house? Yeah, so people who are very risk averse. People who want to stay in one place for a very long time.'Cause they have a family or something. Yep. Yeah. And you don't want to be priced out of of of the market that you live in. This did happen in in some cities in Canada in recent history. It's No. Reversed.

37:32 But there were people who were getting priced out of their market. They've been renters for a long time and rents went up so quickly that they they just couldn't keep Peace. It depends on your rental markets. Some rental markets are controlled where that's less of an issue. So you do have to think about things like that.

37:46 But yeah, if you want to stay in one place. Owning Home is is The way. to do that, but it's a double edged sword because if you realize you want to leave.

37:55 You might be You might be stuck. Uh and then the other big one. for who should own a home is it uh taxable investors with with high tax rates. And again, that comes back to the opportunity cost where if you're paying a lot of tax on your investments.

38:08 Whereas real estate tends to be tax preferred in Canada, gains on your primary residence are tax free. US has a uh I believe an amount. And so that's that's another thing to think about, where the opportunity cost changes depending on your specific tax situation. When we have these conversations about buying a house or not buying a house, one of the things I see a lot in the comment section is people Um sharing their case studies of them buying a house thirty years ago. And now it went from

38:32 being worth a hundred thousand dollars to Six hundred thousand dollars. And they're they're asserting that that's evidence that it's a good idea. Yeah. Oh, this is this is the thing. This is the example. Uh, and if everyone has the family member that bought a house for

38:46 Seventy thousand dollars and sold it for a million. I'm just gonna read you the top four comments and I'd like to get your response uh on them. The first one is The not buying a house does not work in the UK as ninety percent of rents are higher than a mortgage cost. Also, if you want to start a family, You need a stable place to raise your children. And with renting, you can be kicked out within a few months notice and your whole life could be turned upside down.

39:10 I personally think there are ways around that. And I as I mentioned earlier, I did rent for six years of my life with a wife and An increasing number of kids. The two things that I always made sure to do were to rent from professional landlords. We did have one experience renting from a a sort of mom and pop person who had bought a condo and rented it out. And that that wasn't great. But after that we we were very careful about vetting our landlords and only renting from

39:35 Professionals. And then the other thing that we did, which addresses At least in Canada, addresses w one of the other points there. is we would sign long leases. If we want to stay in a house for a few years, we would sign a multi year lease.

39:48 And landlords do tend to I like that. The other point that was was in there that I think is really important is That rents are higher than mortgage payments. I think this is one of the biggest mistakes that people make when they're making the red versus own comparison.

40:00 is it'll say, This is my mortgage payment. This is my rent. If the mortgage payment is lower Owning must be better. But that's not the case. As we talked about a minute ago.

40:09 You have. Property taxes. Maintenance costs. Potential renovation spending that you wouldn't do otherwise. And the opportunity cost of

40:17 of capital. When you add all that up. The cost of owning a home is far more. than the mortgage payment. This guy here said, I bought a house, it's the best thing I ever did. It's launched my mindset in new directions. Remember that having your own space has profound psychological impact.

40:35 And can be life changing. For some of us that want to live in a healthy environment. What do you make of that point? If it have profound psychological impact. If someone believes that it does

40:47 And they've really taken the time to reflect on their life. And has decided that yes, it it is in fact true, that it has a had a profound psychological impact, of course that person should own a home. Of course they should. Is it true for everybody? I don't think so. Dawn said, My experience, I purchased a house in twenty thirteen with twenty percent down payment deposit. My total payment, including taxes, insurance, HOA

41:11 Home is this insurance. Um is one thousand eight hundred dollars a month. As of today, the exact same house is renting for four thousand dollars. The property value has also gone up three X. I'm glad I bought my house. Yes. So there are cases where Uh real estate. Allows you to use leverage very easily, as as Don mentioned.

41:32 And if you end up buying in a market that goes up a lot in a short period of time, it can be really, really good. However. And this is what we've seen in Canada more recently. It hasn't touched other markets yet. Although of course the US has had their own declines and so other countries. But Canada's right now in one of the biggest real estate price drawdowns.

41:49 When you adjust for inflation. Going back to nineteen seventy five. And so if you had bought Yes. Seven years ago.

41:57 And then well, and then looked at the price in twenty twenty two, you'd think, wow, I'm a genius. Of course everybody should buy. But if you had bought in I think it's twenty twenty one was the was the kind of peak. And you look at it today, you're thinking like wow, I've ruined my life.

42:11 So yes, there are examples like that for sure, but that that is not what people should expect every time that they purchase a home. So are you saying that the future's not gonna Like As the past. Uh for this I know the Canadian market best, but I think these i i it generalizes outside of Canada. We're we've seen record decreasing

42:29 Interest rate. So that's that's changed a little bit now, but for a period of time we had interest rates going down, down, down. In Canada, we had a ton of immigration. I have no problem with Immigrants Uh, but we had levels of immigr immigration that were just not compatible with the amount of housing that we had in in Canada, which is contributing to prices going Uh we have uh Housing supply just not growing.

42:49 Uh quickly enough. Which are all things that Canada's addressing now. But all that causes price. caused prices to go crazy, which is I think why they've come down in such an extreme way. So I'm not I'm not saying necessarily that we're never gonna see high house prices again or house prices going up at an extreme rate again.

43:04 But in Canada at least that has now normalized or at least started to Normalized. I don't think it's reasonable to expect Stock like returns. from real estate forever, even though we did see that for for some years.

43:17 So for most people then you think if their goal is to make money And they care about mobility, being able to get up and go if opportunity arises. A better investment decision would probably be just investing in an index fund. Which gives you exposure to the stock market. Yeah, I th I think the mobility piece is key there, because remember, just from a wealth perspective, we can show that hey, these are pretty close to equivalent.

43:38 Mm-hmm. But if mobility matters to you, yeah, I think that that matters a lot. If you have unique investment opportunities. that that can be another reason where your opportunity cost is really high. Like I had an opportunity to buy equity in my company years ago. And

43:53 If I had been a homeowner. I th I think I actually had just bought a house and I think I even had to reduce the amount of equity I bought because our I think our well pump broke. Like around the same anyway. There's a whole thing annoying, isn't it? But that's like the opportunity cost in the stock market, which is, you know, call it seven percent or whatever.

44:09 But there's other opportunity costs that can be a lot higher, like in that specific Situation. And the next one there is number seven. Yeah. Missing tax planning opportunities.

44:20 This is something that people I think I think people just don't think enough. About. But It's Not

44:26 Terribly complex. But there are sim simple things that people can do to minimize the amount of tax they're playing paying for most people. It's just optimally using things like in Canada we have the RSP and the TFSA in the US, it's the the Roth and traditional IRA and and four oh one Ks. Using those things optimally make a lot of sense. So then

44:45 The rest uh other types of tax planning tend to get more countryspecific. There tend to be lots of things for particularly for higher income people that you can do to Pay a little bit less tax. And I think What about for lower income people? For lower income people, the government accounts that are provided. Uh ISA in the UK. Yeah, exactly. Those are probably the best thing for people to be focusing on.

45:06 But even then, I don't like people are often not using them optimally. One of the things people don't talk about enough is all the ways that rich people Do things to avoid paying tax. They have like they hire people so that they don't have to pay tax. And I hear about all these crazy stories of like, I've started this business on the side here, so I can get a real estate license, and if I get a real estate license, I don't have to pay the same tax on this thing here, and I move the money around here and I flip it round there and then I don't have to pay any tax. Most people like the average

45:31 People don't have any loop holes that they can they jump through. Yeah. It's true. And even one of the crazy ones I learned about when I got some money was That you can take a loan against your stocks.

45:43 And there's no tax on the loan. So if I have A million dollars of Facebook stock. I can go to a bank and get Five hundred K in cash.

45:53 loaned against that stock without having to sell it. And then on that five hundred K I have no tax to pay. And I can just hold that Facebook stock. And when it goes up to two million. I can go back to the bank and say

46:04 Give me another five hundred K. You could. But if it goes down you get margin called and they have to come up with the cash to Can they just sell can they just sell the stock? They might, but then you're selling after it's Come down. So it's not risk free. But yeah, that is a thing that people do. I guess everybody could do that, right? I'm most people could if they invested in the the S P five hundred.

46:23 They could go and get a loan against that investment. And that alone would be tax free. Yep, same. Same rules for everybody. But

46:31 I would still say that you're you're taking a lot of risk by borrowing money against Risky assets like that. Mm-hmm. Okay, so tax planning, there's nothing else to cover there in terms of the average person. Yeah, I don't think so. But it is an important thing for people to think about if thinking about

46:44 What mistakes might I be making in my financial plan? They should definitely be thinking about are there tax planning opportunities that that I'm that I'm missing. How would they find out? It's a tough one. A good C P A.

46:55 What's the CPA? Uh uh an accountant. A good tax professional. should be able to identify tax pl planning opportunities for you. Good financial planners similarly should be able to identify good tax planning opportunities for your situation. But as you said earlier, the reality is there aren't that many things. That people can be doing. And it's really things that you could figure out how to optimize once. And then you're kind of set.

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49:17 Who does need a financial advisor? Probably A lot of people. But The financial

49:24 advice. profession has a lot of challenges. We were chatting about the the the sales nature of the financial services industry. And I do think that's a big problem. Because if someone's has here here's Ben say, Okay.

49:37 Ben said I should have a financial advisor. And they go to a bank or they go even to some random firm. Uh there's a good chance. That they're going to be sold. Products that they don't eat.

49:49 And I don't have a solution for that. Like that's a it's it's a difficult situation when that is the state. of the financial advice industry. I guess. to get around that one might ask their friends and family who does their financial planning. And then go with a trusted

50:03 Referral? Yeah, but peop people often trust people that aren't giving them great advice. Like it's just really it's really problematic. I I think a lot of people can benefit from financial advice. It's just finding the right And a lot of people. Don't need financial advice because you do pay fees for it.

50:19 What's the next one, number eight? Yeah. It is it's kind of a similar discussion to we just talked about, but it's it's missing out on Estate planning. What does that mean?

50:28 Figuring out how your assets are going to be distributed to the people that you want them to or the entities that you want them to. When you die. This is an interesting one'cause nobody's well, most people aren't expecting to die. Anytime soon. Yeah.

50:42 So they haven't really thought much about this. Yeah. And you know, some might also say, Listen, I'm I'm not gonna be here, so Why should I care? Especially people that I guess that's a my mindset of someone that doesn't have kids, but Yeah. It can cause a lot of problems. If you don't think through and plan for the way you want your estate to be distributed, you can pay a lot more tax than you otherwise would have.

51:02 And your estate can go to people that you may not have wanted it to go to. You can pay more tax. Yeah. properly. And I again this is gonna be country specific, but yeah, there there's Cases where you would pay more tax if things were not set up properly than if they were.

51:17 Do you think everybody should write a will? Everybody that has any dependents. Should right a well. I've heard a an a state planning lawyer joke that everybody has a will.

51:27 The government's default will. Uh which you may not actually agree with. It's like prenups. Yeah, kinda like that. Yeah. It's exactly like that. You could say everybody should have a will because it can Help from having a big mess for s other people to clean up.

51:39 But for sure, if you have kids, if you have dependents, I think having a will is really important. And on that point of prenups, number nine is about who you marry. Yeah, this is a this is a tough one. It's a tough one because I mean this is front of mind for me because as you can see from these photos, I just

51:55 I just uh proposed to my fiancee. Yeah. And um I mean this is not the ring. But 'Cause this is a bit extra, but um that's awesome.

52:03 Oh my God, they put my face in the team put my face in the books. That's C P But yeah, so why is this so important, who you decide to marry as it relates to how rich you'll be or or won't be? Well, i it's not just how rich you'll be, it's how satisfied you'll be. With your Life.

52:18 And with your marriage. Academic research has identified two spending profiles that you can categorize people into. One is tight wads. People don't like to spend money. I wanna spend thrifts.

52:31 That's people who do like to spend money. The names are kind of funny, but that's just that's what the research calls them. And the crazy thing about this Is that Tight ones and spendthrifts.

52:40 are more likely to end up marrying each other. Then to marrying Someone who has the same profile as them. So two a a tightwad and a spendthrift are more likely to get married than a tightwad and a tightwad or a spendthrift and a spendthrift. What do you think that is? The the the the research on this talks just about kind of opposites attracting and there may be some sort of thrill to the to the differences.

53:00 Um initially. But Taiwans and Spanish. as they go through their marriages do tend to be less satisfied. in the marriages and have more marital conflict around

53:11 Money. Again, that's based on an academic paper. Well that's Reasons why the marriage might not last, but

53:19 In terms of how it might impact your financial success. If you really want to save, if you have if if you go through your goal setting exercise and your perma model And you've a have a vision for the life that you want to live that requires Saving. And you have a spouse that wants to spend a lot of money.

53:35 Today. That can be very, very difficult. It can make it a lot harder for you to achieve your goals. I don't think it's insurmountable. I think a tight water in a spent thrift can work. I mean it's not like all of them end up getting Divorced?

53:47 But it does require a different level of coordination and communication. And being on the same page. Do you have to speak to clients about this often? I it it. Comes up.

53:57 A lot. We have lots of clients who were single and end up Getting in relationships and then getting married and we have to all have all kinds of conversations about marriage contracts or prenups, um, estate planning. Do you think everybody should get a prenup? Going back to what you said earlier, where you said you you if you don't write your own, the government will give you theirs. Yeah.

54:14 Which just to simplify that. If you don't write your own prenup. then you are the default position is the government will decide through the law. how your assets are divided at a time when you get when you break up. Problem is people find cleanup to be really unromantic. That's right.

54:31 And they will say We're assuming we're gonna break up, which is also not so sexy. Right. Do you think people should get them?

54:39 They have both partners are on the same page and comfortable with and it's not gonna cause a major rift. And if it does, maybe that's a red flag. Do you know what I mean? Why would it cause a rift? Yeah, yeah. Do you know what I mean? And it it's not to say that I'm just keeping all my stuff and you're keeping yours. It's just to say Let's agree now what would happen.

54:55 Than the like fifty percent probability. That this doesn't work out. We've seen both. We've seen clients Creative and interesting. Uh

55:04 marriage contracts that have, you know, specific formulas for how things are gonna work and depending on how many kids they have and it's Yeah, it's kind of an interesting exercise and in that case It was kind of fun and they they they were engaged in the process. And didn't cause an issue. And we've also seen people who did not have anything in place and have had

55:20 Very bad. divorce outcomes from a financial perspective. Oh, I had a friend go through a divorce recently. And he's a very successful person. His wife was there from the beginning. She took looked after the family while he was off gallivanting around the world building his his businesses all over the place. So Obviously she you know they

55:37 She's contributed hugely to his success. What I noticed though Is It's destroyed. What could have otherwise been

55:45 a good relationship as they separated. They now really, really hate each other because lawyers have stood in between both sides. Yeah. And basically caused tension because that's their job. They're gonna get paid more and the her lawyers are incentivized to squeeze every single penny they can out of this uh separation. And so I think he he said it had been like six or seven years.

56:06 Since they decided to divorce. And he's still in court. Arguing with uh lawyers. About how they separate. And it's destroyed their relationship. They've got two kids.

56:16 You just think, gosh, like if you had a prenup this would have been quick and it could have saved the relationship. Okay. Anything else to say on this this point of marriage and compatibility? The academic research on this does have a a short quiz. I don't know if we have it.

56:30 Kicking around anywhere here. I think this is it. It's called the Tightwater Spend Thrift Quiz, developed by researchers at Carnegie Mellon and the University of Michigan. Yeah. This scale measures the pain of paying, the emotional distress some people feel when spending money. Uh and here's a quick DIY version of that quiz. Question number one is you see a high quality coat on sale for a hundred dollars. Which is r usually three hundred dollars.

56:54 You need a coat. And you have the money. Do you buy it? Answer A No. hundred dollars is still a lot of money. I'll wait for a better deal.

57:01 B, yes, it's a great value, I need something. C, yes. And I might buy a scarf to match since I save so much. Which one are you? I mean if I need the code, I'm big. I think I'm C.

57:14 Yeah. But actually to be fair, I just don't buy stuff, so I don't even know if I'd buy it anyway. Question two. You were at a restaurant with friends.

57:24 The bill is being split evenly, but you ordered the cheapest item. How do you feel? A physically pained, I'll likely mention that I should pay less. B. A bit annoyed.

57:35 But I'll pay it to keep the peace. We'll see, fine. It all will even out in the end. Between B and C really. Really. But I wouldn't I wouldn't cause a fuss about it.

57:47 I'm C again. Fine, it will leave it out in the end. Number three, which statement describes you best? A, I have trouble spending money even on things I actually need. B I balance my spending and saving pretty well. or say

58:00 I often spend more than I intended and regret it later. They can be. You said B, which is I balance my spending and savings pretty well. Um I would say I'm C again.

58:13 But again, the caveat here is actually don't Mm-hmm. I don't spend money on stuff anymore. I don't buy stuff anymore. Yeah, I can spend it on like Traveling experiences and stuff. Yeah.

58:25 Last question. When you buy something expensive, your primary emotion is A Anxiety or regret? B satisfaction in the utility of the item or C excitement and a rush. I think it'll be again.

58:39 I I reckon I'm bit as well there. So scoring your results. If you're mostly A's Then you're a tight what? If you're mostly bees.

58:47 You are the unconflicted. And if you're mostly Cs, you are the spendthrift. So I guess with that. You you are a unconflicted, you're in the middle, you have a healthy relationship with money where you can save when necessary, but enjoy the fruits of your labor without guilt.

59:01 An I am a C, which is you feel Very little pain when spending. You enjoy the moment. But you might struggle with long term saving goals or buyers remorse. So fucking true. Everyone should do that at home. Okay, that makes sense.

59:14 We we know that that tightwise and sp spendthrift are incompatible. Uh I d I do think it's an interesting Concept like How do you have that discussion with a potential partner? Or do you just observe it and kind of infer? On a date you can

59:28 Say say to your partner, Say Oh, this is a great podcast on YouTube called The Director, we should listen to it. Then listen to this episode. They're listening with you net right now, if this you've done this. And then just Play along. Play along with your partner around me. Are you looking for your partner to be the opposite then? Because you said opposites attract. No, don't do that at a time. No. Uh opposit up together. But then have conflict because of that.

59:48 Oh. Okay. Yeah. Interesting. Yeah. I think if you're uh if you're a tightwad.

59:55 Being with the same is probably good. If you're a spendthrift and you end up another spendthrift? They've been really careful about your like household finances. Yeah. I don't think my partner's a spendthrift. I think she's in the middle with like you. Yeah. Doesn't really care. Yeah. Which is useful.

1:00:09 We do have one more. Okay. Card in the mistakes, uh, which is under insuring Catastrophic risks. I think that's one Particularly for people who are not

1:00:19 Currently financially independent. That's really, really important. If if your Household income. it relies on your income.

1:00:28 To Maintain The lifestyle of the household. It's really important to have sufficient life insurance. Where if you die, your your human capital, your ability to earn income in the future is replaced.

1:00:39 By the insurance. And also disability insurance, where if you lose your ability to work. You have insurance to replace that income. Do many people think about this? Probably not enough.

1:00:49 And it's cheap. Well. Disability insurance is is not always cheap. Life insurance is generally pretty cheap if you're buying low cost term life insurance, which is what most people need. You made a video called The Most Controversial Paper in Finance. Yeah.

1:01:03 What paper was that? That was a paper we we didn't have it out here, but that was a paper on uh life cycle asset allocation. What does that mean? So it's answering the question of How should your mix of stocks and bonds change? Throughout your lifestyle.

1:01:19 Conventional wisdom says that you should start out riskier in stocks. And then move towards safer bonds as you get older. This paper took A a huge amount of data. They had data from thirty nine countries going back. Uh as far as eighteen ninety, I believe.

1:01:35 They sampled from that large set of data to simulate. A million potential. sort of hypothetical lifetimes that you could live through. And then they ask the question of in this simulated data. Which asset allocation?

1:01:48 Gives the best outcomes. And they teste target date funds. Which Increase the weight in bonds over time. And those are a lot of people have those through their retirement accounts.

1:01:58 So it's just one fund and it starts out when you're younger with more equities and then transitions to bonds over time. That's a target date fund. They tested I believe a sixty forty, sixty percent stock, forty percent bond asset allocation. They might have been some other stuff in there too. They might have tested Only domestic stocks. And what they find in this paper is that the optimal portfolio from the perspective of

1:02:20 Uh retirement. uh consumption utility. And and b uh and bequest utility? What does that mean? It's like The satisfaction you get from retirement spending. Okay.

1:02:30 Measure it in a W with a formula um so that it can be studied. And then likewise for the amount of money that you have left over at at death. Uh they they measure the probability of running out of money as well as a whole bunch of different metrics they look at. And they find that a one hundred percent equity portfolio.

1:02:45 with uh a a a big chunk in international stocks. is optimal. A one third domestic. Two thirds international stocks. When you say domestic, what does that mean? That's a great question.

1:02:58 So the way they set up domestic in the paper is that it It can be any country. So the way they do the simulations is that for each draw So they're drawing uh it's on average ten years of returns. Or say we're in the US.

1:03:11 They'll draw the US returns measured in US dollars. For a tenure block. That's the domestic return. And then the international block is gonna be ten years on average. of all the other countries samples returns measured in US dollar.

1:03:26 So I've got the domestic return, the international return. The next block might be ten years from Italy. Measured in. Uh whatever the Italian currency was. At the time.

1:03:36 And then the international portion is gonna be all the other countries, excluding, measured in Italian Currency. And so they're weaving together all these blocks. That's called bootstrap simulation. So domestic, to answer your question. Is

1:03:49 Whatever country you live in. So the outcome or the conclusion from this should be that you should invest I mean if we're following this and if it was a hundred percent Accurate. What sixty percent in whatever country you live in, in the stocks of whatever country you live in. Thirty percent. Thirty percent. Domestic.

1:04:04 So yeah, one third domestic, two thirds international. Okay, so if I'm in the United States, one So I got thirty percent of my capital and invest it in the American companies.

1:04:14 Yeah. And then sixty percent in international Stocks. Yeah. Well, sixty seven percent. Yep. Yeah. So that w one important finding in the paper, and I talk about this in the video, is that the The curve for how optimal the domestic amount is is pretty flat, if I remember correctly, between sort of ten percent

1:04:33 And fifty percent. So they do say in the paper that for a US investor. You don't necessarily have to be a third domestic, even if you're fifty or even if you're just market cap weighted, which is currently around sixty or sixty-five percent. That's probably fine. But for a Canadian investor. Or someone who's in a country other than the US. one third in your domestic country ends up being a pretty big home country bias.

1:04:54 In these simulations, are they saying that you need to invest in international stocks because sometimes in the simulations your domestic country, your home country has problems. Yeah. High high inflation tends to be bad for retirement consumption, that you're spending a lot more and for domestic stock returns. And international stocks protect against that.

1:05:13 So it diversifies you a little bit. Yeah, well that's exactly what it is. It's a diversification. And that paper was it was controversial. I mean we had the co author on our podcast twice to talk about it, but it it was met with a lot of controversy from Everybody from a lot of professionals, uh from other academics. Why? Uh it's an extreme finding. The conventional wisdom that you should be allocating more toward bonds throughout the life cycle is so ingrained.

1:05:39 In everyone's thinking. that uh a finding like this that shows that that's basically wrong I of course it's going to m be met with Controversy. I at the very least I think it's an interesting paper. It's telling us that stocks are a little bit safer.

1:05:52 for long term investors than we probably thought. And bonds which are typically considered safe. are actually a little bit riskier than we may have thought for long term investors. The reason being that during periods of high inflation Bonds get Absolutely decimated. What's a bund?

1:06:06 A bond is a debt instrument. So you're effectively lending money to a government and you're receiving interest payments over time. And then your principal back at the end. What is the uh the most important thing we haven't talked about that your audience come to you to understand.

1:06:20 Mm. Well A lot of a lot of the things that I talk about are financial products that you should not invest in. Okay, tell me some of those. Which I always think is fun. Uh a a big one that I spent quite a bit of time on last year. I did three videos on it was on on covered calls. What's that?

1:06:35 That's where you you own a stock. And then you sell a call option, which is the option to buy. The stock, you're selling that option to somebody else. Where Uh uh.

1:06:45 An option premium. And so you get some income from having sold the call option. But it also means that if a stock that you own appreciates sufficiently, you are required to sell it. Person who bought the call option from you?

1:06:57 Uh at a at a precept price. The stock's whatever, uh forty dollars and you you sold to call it. fifty dollars and the stock goes to sixty dollars, you have to sell it at fifty. So you're giving up a big chunk of your upside. And this plays on one of the big biases that investors have, which is a preference for income. Uh it's the the mental accounting bias where investors separate capital and income.

1:07:17 And so there's a a huge proliferation now of covered call products. where they do that that strategy that that I just described inside of an ETF. They charge usually a a Higher fee. And these are being marketed really heavily to investors on the premise that you're gonna get

1:07:33 Appreciation, capital appreciation, and you're also going to get income. But I think My my view on this and what I tried to explain in those videos is that you're giving up So much upside. that I don't think most investors realize that they're giving up.

1:07:45 That the implied cost of these products is enormous. On that point of fees, I've got this graph here, which I think is pretty pertinent to what you're saying. Because when we start investing in ETFs and various index funds, we often don't think about Fees. It will say oh zero point five percent. You think okay, whatever, zero point five percent's fine, one percent fine.

1:08:05 Small numbers. But when you look at that graph, you see how that can impact your outcome over time. Yeah. Fee fees compound. Any rate of return the compounds over long periods of time can be very impactful in dollar terms. And and some people choose to keep their money in cash.

1:08:22 Um, because most of us are never educated on this subject of inflation. And what inflation means. So Some of us, you know, we might keep ten thousand dollars under the bed. What do you say to those people? Yeah, so inflation is it's everywhere. It's it's been around for for uh th throughout history.

1:08:38 And it's Probably not going to go away. We have central bank policies in most developed countries that actually target a low but stable rate of inflation. And there's there are reasons for that. But it what it means is that if you have money under your mattress, its purchasing power will decrease. Over time.

1:08:54 And that can be very damaging to your wealth. You can Maybe keep pace with inflation using short term government debt instruments, which are gonna pay you a little bit of an interest rate. Uh, but again, pre periods of high inflation can cause even that to to deep decline in real value. So one of the best ways to fight it fight inflation for long term investors.

1:09:12 Something we've been talking about is just investing in Low cost index funds to avoid the fee issue. Uh and participate in the stock market, which throughout history has far outpaced inflation. One of the smartest things a business can do is build like a bigger company without actually hiring like one. But the problem we all face is that most companies don't have every skill in house. So when I look at the businesses seeing real success today, the consistent pattern with all of them is how quickly they move. They bring in specialists with skills in emerging areas to keep themselves ahead. Even in our company.

1:09:44 We spent the last year pulling in talent across areas like AI native strategy, no code builds, and product workflows. And we find this talent through our longtime partner, Fiverr Pro. Their premium service only shows you vetted talent. So you've always got the safeguard that anyone you pull in to help you with a complex project has the skills that you're after. And will deliver to the same high standards as your internal team. And most importantly, they'll keep up with the pace. It's a simple strategy, but it lets us stay agile without compromising on quality. So if you need these kind of skills in your business, head to pro dot fiver.com to find pioneering talent to fill your business's gaps. That's pro dot fiver.gov. This is something that I've made for you. I realize that the Dirvers here audience are strivers, whether it's in business or health. We all have big goals that we want to accomplish. And one of the things I've learned is that when you aim at the big, big, big goal, it can feel incredibly Incredibly psychologically uncomfortable because it's kind of like being stood at the foot of Mount Everest and looking upwards. The way to accomplish your goals is by breaking them down into tiny small steps. And we call this in our team the 1%. And actually, this philosophy is highly responsible for much of our success here. So What we've done so that you at home can accomplish any big goal that you have is we've made these 1% diaries, and we released these last year and they all sold out. So I asked my team over and over again to bring the diaries back, but also to introduce some new colours and to make some minor tweaks to the diary. So now we have a better range for.

1:11:13 You. So if you have a big goal in mind and you need a framework and a process and some motivation, then I highly recommend you get one of these diaries before they all sell out once again. And you can get yours at thediary.com. And if you want the link, the link is in the description. Is this broadly accurate? This graph here shows the impact of inflation on cash kept under the mattress over thirty over twenty years. And you start with ten thousand dollars. In terms of purchasing power.

1:11:41 And twenty years later, if that caches under the mattress, you have Five thousand three hundred and thirty six dollars. It doesn't show me the inflation rate. Oh, um that's that three percent inflation. You leave it losing half of your m money effectively. And the source here is Saint James Place.

1:11:57 So a lot of people who are just holding on to cash. Don't really realize that over a twenty year period assuming a three percent inflation rate. They're halfhing their money. Uh it ties back to I don't remember which number it was, but it ties back to one of those biggest mistakes in In personal finance we talked about, which is Uh yeah, not not investing, not taking the right kinds of risk with your investments. And just hoarding cash.

1:12:16 Hoarding cash is is It's in its own way. Taking a type of risk. You you you don't have an expected return when you hold cash. You you in real terms have a negative expected return. Do you think we should all be thinking about retirement planning?

1:12:31 I think it ties into The Perma thinking and designing the life that you want to live, but at some point It it yeah I mean At some point we can't work anymore. It's rare for somebody to be able to work into their

1:12:42 you know, I don't know, eighties. I think that it's it's sensible to plan for For that. But Beyond that. A lot of people don't want to have to work forever.

1:12:51 People might choose to work. Forever, but they might choose to do lower paying work. But the idea that you will be forced to work forever, I don't think is very attractive to anyone. So from that perspective, building financial independence by saving and planning for retirement. Yeah, I think it's important for everyone everyone to think about. Is the is the sort of social contract of retirement changing based on how the economy's changing? Cause I hear a lot of people saying you're not going to be able to retire and get a pension because there's not enough money or you're going to have to work later than ever before. I think the onus has been put back on individuals.

1:13:21 But Pensions used to be much more common. Uh From companies and and governments. So

1:13:28 Uh retirement's change from that perspective for sure. I I I don't know if we can say we're in a crisis. I think people have more personal responsibility now than they've had in the past. But they also have better tools than have is historically been available. Thirty years ago we we were just starting to get low cost index funds proliferating and being readily available to everybody. Prior to that, you were paying

1:13:46 two percent or more to invest in a mutual fund. So the tools people have available to them are are better today than th than they've been in the past. But it's also Th there's also a lot more responsibility that people have to take for their own personal finances. You you were naming the things that people shouldn't invest in.

1:14:03 The first is that Hm. Yeah, covered calls. Covered calls. What else?

1:14:09 Another one that I think is really problematic is thematic ETFs. And so that's like uh an AI ETF or I don't know, a space or energy, like any any specific Uh ETF is targeting a specific theme. Why?

1:14:23 What tends to happen with thematic ETFs is that something becomes really hot. Maybe it's AI, maybe it's cannabis, uh, electric vehicles was another one. Sustainable energy. Yeah, that was another good one. Clean energy. And so what happens is asset prices in that theme go up. Because there's a lot of interest in it. Everybody wants to invest in that space. Asset prices go up.

1:14:43 An index provider creates an index. For that. Hot fame. And then an ETF gets launched. But it gets launched. When the p asset prices are up here.

1:14:53 Yeah. tends to happen is the asset prices Calm down. then the returns on thematic funds tend to be very poor. Uh, okay.

1:15:02 Yeah, I think I was guilty of that in my early career was like, Oh my god, sustainable energy ETF, I believe in sustainable energy. I should invest in that. Yeah. But you're right. They created that when it was hot. So you should have invested, I guess you're saying just invest in the FTSE one hundred, the S P five hundred instead. Mm.

1:15:18 Technology, which is a broader basket. Technology's tough. Technology has performed So incredibly well. But it is still one sector. Okay.

1:15:27 I have trouble saying you should invest in tech. If you had invested in tech for the last twenty years. Well done. Should you choose to invest only in tech or or have a big concentration in tech today? I think that's a lot less obvious. One would say, Well, look at all this AI stuff. There's g how do I invest in all the AI stuff?

1:15:44 A lot of it's private right now, although a lot of the public companies do own chunks of of some of these private companies. Uh, we'll see how that plays out. But uh that's another one that's been tough recently, where a lot of investors are interested in investing in in in in investing in some of these private companies. Uh a lot of them AI related, but SpaceX is another one. It's really hard for retail investors to get access to those types of things. But there are companies who are

1:16:06 Creating products. That say that they can give you access to these To these things. They're charging high fees. Uh it's not obvious that they've been able to buy the underlying securities that they're saying they have access to at good prices.

1:16:19 But it's just another example of Financial companies Praying on the The desires and biases of investors. Financial firms are very good at seeing

1:16:30 What investors want. Even if that thing is not good for them. And then creating a product to fulfill that. Desire. So if someone listening now

1:16:40 Is Let's say they're fifty years old and they've got twenty thousand dollars. In savings. In cash.

1:16:49 And you had to be decisive. You don't know the nuance and the the the the detail of their life, you don't know their perma framework necessarily. But your job was just to make the money in the next ten years. What how do you think you would allocate that? Let's say ten thousand dollars, it's easier. Ten thousand dollars in cash. How would you allocate it? That's a

1:17:05 I don't know if it's answerable. Es especially over ten years, it's tough. But Twenty years. If they have a long time horizon, so I I I can tell you personally I I like to invest in stocks.

1:17:19 I I have a a globally diversified stock portfolio with a Canadian home country bias, kinda like what that that paper, the controversial paper found. Uh we were doing that. Prior to that paper coming out. Uh, but I think that general concept of a globally diversified portfolio, maybe with some home country bias. Makes a lot of sense for most people, including for

1:17:40 Retirees. But there are so many like what's what's his risk tolerance. If he's gonna panic when the market goes down and sell everything. And it wasn't a very good idea. And he's not gonna get the outcome.

1:17:49 But the good long term outcome they may have otherwise gotten. And would you go all in on stocks? All at once? Yeah. Like dollar cost averaging versus love sum?

1:17:58 Yeah, like how would you invest would you go a hundred percent in stocks or would you Even diversify that. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. I d I think a hundred percent stocks is Personally. I a portfolio that I'm very comfortable with. And I

1:18:11 I'm not I'm not old enough to be thinking about retirement, but it's a portfolio that I don't expect to change throughout my Personal. Life cycle. Is that how you allocate your personal finances now. You you I know you have a home, but

1:18:23 Otherwise the money you do invest is in the stock market. Yeah, so I've got my home, I have my stock market investments, and I do have a pretty significant chunk of equity in the company that I work for. Yeah. No crypto. No crypto.

1:18:36 And never touched it. Never touched it. That's not true. I I when I was researching Uh Ethereum and Bitcoin. Remember when that was. It was a few years ago. I bought A thousand dollars of each just so I could feel like I was

1:18:49 Mm. Participating while I was learning about it. What do you think of Bitcoin and Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies? Uh I I think that the They solved a really interesting problem. the the premise of digital cash.

1:19:02 is something that the cypherpunk community, the kind of libertarian community of of uh privacy focused computer nerds, uh where they were trying to solve this problem for for many, many years. of digital cash. How do you create digital cash that doesn't require a trusted third party? To media transactions.

1:19:19 And if they Solved that. Satoshi Nakamoto solved that. In uh And that was cool. And he used a bunch of different pieces, like you can kinda see in the paper how he used Adam's bac Adam Bach's ideas that he had

1:19:30 Created. to stop email spam and it's just how it all came together. Unbelievable. Fascinating story. The technology was really interesting. I think it has become Uh

1:19:39 An ideological Vehicle. Were people who believe that the world should be a certain way. Or believe that

1:19:47 government's role in money should be a certain way. they can invest in Bitcoin and feel really good about it. I think it's it's got that component to it. And then the other component that it has to it. Is it it's a speculative asset?

1:19:59 You'll buy Bitcoin. Because I think it's gonna go up. So it's not a good investment, is that what you're saying? I I I personally wouldn't We don't allocate it uh to it for our

1:20:10 Clients of PWL. We managed. Quite a bit of money for Quite a lot of people. And we've decided not to touch it.

1:20:18 And I personally don't touch it, so I had a phone call actually from a friend of mine. She's she's very well known in the UK. And she was um 'Cause there's lots of wars going on everywhere. And there's the Strait of Hormuz is closed and there's Russia, Ukraine, there's all of this stuff going on. She was she was asking me for financial advice on what she should do in such a moment. I don't know why she's calling me.

1:20:37 I just thought I'll ask you when you come here. But it but it's interesting'cause my my team found this article from eighteen forty seven. Which was in a magazine. And it almost sounds like today. The article says this.

1:20:50 Things are bad all over. It is a gloomy moment in history. Not in the lifetime of any man who reads this paper has there ever been so much grave And deep. Apprehension. Never has the future seemed so dark and incalculable.

1:21:04 In France the political c cauldron seethes and bubbles with uncertainty. England and the English Empire is being sorely tried and exhausted in a social and economic struggle. The United States is behest. With racial, industrial, and commercial chaos drifting we know not where.

1:21:22 Russia hangs like a storm cloud on the horizon of Europe. Dark and silent. It is a solemn moment. And no man can feel indifference. Of our own troubles, no man can see the end.

1:21:34 An apt description of things. Very apt. And that was on October the tenth, eighteen forty seven. Magazine. That very much sounds like today. It could be today, yeah. So as we zoom out on the cycles, the big sort of economic cycles, the geopolit cycles. My friend that called me and said, Listen, there's lots of stuff going on in the world. Should I be thinking about my money differently, my investing strategy, what the hell's going on? What would you say to those people?

1:21:58 Yeah. As the clip that you read uh. Suggests or or or tell us. The world has been through A lot of crazy stuff.

1:22:07 A lot of crazy times. A lot of wars, a lot of turmoil, a lot of politic political upheavals. And we've come out okay in general. It's there there's been pain and suffering and and not everybody's had uh good outcomes, but Generally speaking. Here we are.

1:22:22 And if we think about that from the perspective of financial markets. Stock returns have been positive. Despite All the craziness going on in the world. There there's lots of interesting charts that overlay news headlines about all the madness going on in the world.

1:22:35 on top of the stock chart that's just going up. Doesn't mean the stocks are always going to be up. They will go down when when Things get crazy like when when this war started. Stock returns did get a little bit negative for a while.

1:22:46 They've since come back. But there will be volatility. In financial markets. Volatility up and down day to day. But in the long run. Stock returns.

1:22:55 They they should continue to be expected to be. Positive. So for your friend I Acids are set up.

1:23:03 Um But someone who's globally diversified. Exposure to the stock market. They don't have to make changes to their portfolios when The world's getting crazy.

1:23:11 I remember what she said to me. She said that she was Gonna remortgage her house. Because I think she pr paid it down. And she was wondering what to do with that money.

1:23:22 She was saying, Do I just go buy another house or do I invest it in the stock market? I'm on My bias is the stock market, but I don't know what you what would you say to someone in that situation. I don't know why she's mortgaging her house, but Given there's a good reason for that, I would I would probably go in in the stock market, not into Real estate. Do you think people shouldn't remortgage their houses?

1:23:42 This is a tough question. Leverage, kinda like how exposure to stock market is good. Borrowing money? To invest in positive expected return assets like like the stock market. is actually kind of a good thing on paper. Boring money.

1:23:55 generally improves long term expected outcomes. But It's stressful. You can you can have bad outcomes where you lose

1:24:03 All of your money? So Should people borrow money to invest? Should people mortgage their house to invest? That's a very

1:24:10 personal question. It's kinda like the stock bond question. Should you invest in stocks or bonds. Should you invest in stocks with leverage? Or not. It really depends on your goals and your situation. Uh but generally speaking, if we just look at what what what do the data say about borrowing money to invest.

1:24:25 It's not. It's not a terrible idea. One of the things we haven't talked about is AI. And does AI change any of this equation? A lot of people are worried at the moment about losing their jobs. Anthropic release to report who are one of the big AI companies

1:24:38 saying that entry level people in particular are gonna have a hard time. And I think they said they're already seeing thirteen percent of entry level jobs being disrupted because of These new AI and AI agents.

1:24:51 To be clear, not a labor economist. Um, it's not my area of expertise. I do think though that when we look back through History. I like looking at history. There have been lots of technological

1:25:02 revolutions that have been major major upheals to the Entire economy. Yes. So ATMs. ATMs are one of those fascinating examples. People thought that ATMs were going to wipe out.

1:25:16 Bank dollars. Because ATMs could do everything that bank tellers do, but it was automated. And you didn't have to pay a person to do it. So there was a lot of concern. And one e what ended up happening was Very

1:25:28 Counterintuitive. is that the cost of operating a bank branch. Decreased. Because you needed fewer people to do all the bank teller stuff'cause you had the ATMs. And banks open more branches.

1:25:41 Because it costs less. And their customers like that. And the end result was that there were actually more. Big toe drops. At the end of the day.

1:25:51 The cost of providing the service decreased, which caused it to proliferate more, provide that service to more. People. And it expanded the market instead of Shrinking it. Similar story with uh Jevons paradox and um It's the same concept.

1:26:06 What's that story? Where coal became cheaper? At a time when they used coal to ship. Freight on trains. And the coal engine got more efficient with coal. Coal industry panics.

1:26:17 Whisk. But then what it meant is people used trains not just for shipping freight, but also for other things like travel. And people started travelling on trains because it got cheaper, so the coal industry actually boomed in the end. That's it. I

1:26:30 I've thought a lot about this Jevons paradox idea. And I think it's I think it's gonna be true for artificial intelligence, for sure. I there will be lots of other jobs created. And actually companies like mine, if we save money, we invest it in something else. Which then would would probably create jobs, whatever that is. The part that I sometimes struggle with is the speed. Of adoption in AI. And then also when you factor in robotics.

1:26:53 Like my car in in LA drives itself. And I think one of the biggest employees on earth is driving in all its forms. But then if you look at warehousing and supply chains, a lot of those are ran by people all over the world. And there was a video that I played the other day, we can throw it up on the screen, which shows that in factories in certain parts of the world now. They're having their labor force were cameras on their head showing what they're doing with their hands because The robots are ultimately gonna repl replace

1:27:18 That labour force. And I just I I haven't I guess this is maybe something that happens in history. I haven't been able to think about where Those people go.

1:27:26 Can Go on to do. Especially if it happens in short order. Yeah, so I I I've heard you I've heard you ponder this in your other episodes. I I I agree that the speed of this is likely to be Different.

1:27:38 As you've said, it's we're we're talking about the internet, so you can deploy these things at the snap of a finger. And that is different. Where do those people go? This is one of the interesting things. I don't know.

1:27:47 We we don't know. And through history we didn't know. Exactly. Through history it's been the same sentiment. where people worry about where are these people going to go? And they might be unemployed for a while. And there might be hard times, but

1:27:59 Things have worked out. And so are two ways to think about it. One one way is as a as an individual, what should you be doing? We talked about earlier. Uh having complimentary skills that make you very unique, I think is important. Personally, content, as you mentioned, has been a big part of that for for me. Not everybody can necessarily do that, but finding

1:28:17 Those things that you can do when combined better than anybody else in the world. I think is very valuable. And then the other perspective is as an investor. How should we think about this? And then I would come back to you again. We have seen

1:28:29 Many. Technological revolutions that have Changed. The world they've changed financial markets, they've changed our culture, they've changed the way we interact with each other. The world has changed so many times due to technology.

1:28:41 And the same cycle. has repeated itself. Uh, there there has been unemployment, there has been social unrest, there has been wealth inequality, but that happens Every Time.

1:28:52 Are you expecting the stock market to collapse because there's been a huge over investment in artificial intelligence and at some point The investors that put their money into these sort of speculative AI startups that raised tremendous amounts of capital at crazy valuations. At some point through history, doesn't the market always contract at some point?

1:29:12 There's a great book by an economist named Carlotta Perez. Uh the book is Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital. And she documents this exact cycle throughout history. And yes, that's part of it.

1:29:24 Asset prices getting really high. And then coming back down. Now am I worried about a catastrophic market collapse? I think that's always a concern. I think that's part of the risk of investing in stocks. We never know when it's going to happen or what the trigger is going to be.

1:29:38 So it's not something that you can Do anything about it. You need to have an ask allocation that you can stick with. even if that outcome is going to materialize. And in that book.

1:29:48 Is Does it suggest that the writing is on the wall for the current economy and the way that we're heavily investing in AI and data centers. And you know, a couple of years ago everyone was investing in crypto. And web three. and NFTs and all this stuff. And all of the money to have been sucked out of that industry. Really, honestly, sucked out of almost every industry.

1:30:07 And into AI. Um I knew I remember when DeFi was gonna kill banking and finance. And that was only a couple of years ago. And in fact, a lot of the developers have moved from that industry into the AI industry. But I but I think I I do think about this a lot. I'm I've got a few f startu friends who are

1:30:24 Getting a little bit nervous. And are raising a lot of money now because they think that in the next couple of years, maybe in the next twenty four months, there's gonna be a big market contraction. When investors who invested in some startup idea that had a hundred million dollar valuation realize that they're losing their money and some d domino usually falls in the market. Some catalyst moment means that there's a contraction. Stock markets go down, it be gets really hard to raise money. Yep. Clients who you might be relying on now to pay your advertising budget start to lower their budgets.

1:30:53 And in such a scenario you're gonna wanna w wish you prepared. A little bit. Some people are. This is Part of the cycle. the the cost of capital for bubble companies, we'll call them. I don't love the term bubble, but for companies who are in the industry that becomes the focus of a technological

1:31:09 Revolution. So now we're talking about AI, the cost of capital gets really low. Which means asset prices get really high. A lot of people want to invest in that space. But those asset prices Are not typically sustainable.

1:31:20 And they do tend to come down. Does that mean a total market collapse or catastrophe or or or or panic for diversified investors? No. Oh, is the writing on the wall? I don't think we can say that if the writing were on the wall, the the way that I view financial markets is that if the writing were on the wall Mm prices would reflect that today.

1:31:37 Okay. If we thought market prices were gonna drop in the future, they would drop. Today. So so it happens at a time when no one is expecting it. That's exactly right. You mentioned writing is never on the wall. That's right.

1:31:49 Some some new piece of information, something changes. And that's what causes Uh prices to come down. He he's worked in sort of investing for the last fifteen years. He said something to me early in my career. He said Steven, uh sh when you go to invest in something

1:32:05 Assume. The the price you're paying for that investment. So say I'm investing in Facebook stock at ten dollars. Is the total accumulation of everything everybody on the planet knows about that company.

1:32:19 And they've priced in everything the world knows about that company today. And he was like, So even if you think It's gonna go up. That's also, by the way, priced into today's price. So you better Know something that no one else knows.

1:32:33 when you're thinking about buying in an investment. I've totally butchered what he said. No, you guys didn't. You didn't. He he is describing the concept of an efficient market. An efficient market is a market where prices always and this is a sort of a theoretical concept. It's not Actually true. But in theory, an efficient market, a perfectly efficient market, is a market where prices always fully reflect all available information.

1:32:55 Including your thoughts about what the price is. Yeah. Might do, really if you trade on those thoughts. So what are you investing in then? If it's if The future's already priced in and all the information about the company's already priced in. What are you investing in? You're investing in discounted future cash flows.

1:33:09 Companies produce cash flows. Mm-hmm. They earn they earn profits. When you invest in a company. You're buying those expected future profits at a discount. That that's called the discount rate. That's getting pretty nerdy again, but that's that's how it works in finance. What is the what is the value of a stock? If it's discounted future cash flows, riskier stocks will tend to have higher discount rates.

1:33:28 But you buy this asset. And now you've got this discounted bundle of cash flows, which you then hold and you receive the discount rate as a rate of return as you continue to hold. Yeah, so a lot of people will invest in Tesla. They'll go, Listen, I've I've got a Tesla, it's amazing, I'm gonna buy some stock. What is the fault in my thinking there? In buying Tesla stock?

1:33:47 Because I I've got a Tesla, I think it's a great car. And I think they'll do well in the future, so I buy the stock. They w it's what we just talked about. That information is already included in the price. Everybody knows that it's a pretty good company making pretty good cars that are selling really well. And that's why it costs ten dollars today. Right.

1:34:03 Whatever it costs today. Whatever the price is, yeah. If you look at uh the the data on Professional money managers who are trying to beat the market. Most of them don't. And the ones that do, this is the crazy part, the the managers who do beat the market over a period of time.

1:34:18 don't tend to go on to beat the market. In the future. And these are professional investors who are, you know, and then you can look at this before or after fees. The data are are actually pretty similar. It's worse after fees, but the distribution Is is pretty similar. So what's the point in a money manager? Well,

1:34:34 ones that are trying to beat the market by picking stocks and timing the market, I don't think that there is one. That's why I talk about just just Buy index funds. Buy by the market. Let the give take the market's return. Except the market's return, which has been very good. And then don't do anything. Don't check the fucking thing. Don't check it. Don't open the app. Leave the password. I said this about my my fiance. I said she's really good at investing because she always forgets the password.

1:34:57 And then we sp four years later we'll be like, Well, babe, you should check. your investment. And she goes, I don't know the password. I go fucking and then we have to do the whole password reset thing every and then we open up. We go, I've got a baby rich. It's probably good. And she goes, Oh, amazing. And then she forgets the password again. And then four years later we take a look again at her investments. I I like to say you you want to focus on the things that you can control. You can't control markets, you can't control Uh your performance relative to the market.

1:35:23 And tr trying to outperform tends to make you worse off rather than better. But the things that you can control Or a lot of the things we talked about. Having having it an appropriate financial plan, having having the right goals set, having an asset allocation that makes sense for you, even if markets do decline. Having emergency savings, tax planning. Those are things that you can control. That's what people should focus on. Do you think women are better investors than men?

1:35:44 I'm I'm not Super good on these data, but I'm believe what the data say are that women tend to be a little bit more risk averse. Uh but they tend to be a little bit less overconfident. Which I assume gets better results, right? Yeah. I I I think women are probably better investors. I'm just gonna give I'm gonna give the simple answer right there.

1:36:02 I've just got some numbers here. Fidelity said Across five point Two million accounts. Women beat men with their investments.

1:36:11 Work business school, women outperformed men by one point eight Percent. per year over a three year period, U C Berkeley Men traded forty five percent more often than women, leading to annual returns. That were one point four percent lower than women's

1:36:26 And Revolute, which is a bank founded out in the UK. is says that women's investments in the UK outperformed men's by four percent. Incredible. I believe it. Give your money to your wife.

1:36:39 Uh. W one of those data points is specified, uh, but I would assume that a lot of that is related to overtrading. Yeah. And men tend to be overconfident. They tend to trade more. They try to pick stocks. They think Tesla stock's gonna go up because they like the car. We're also the the the biggest gambling addicts in the world and then as well, so it's kinda correlates. For sure it is, yeah.

1:36:58 Ben, we have a closing tradition on this podcast where the last guest leaves the question for the next, not knowing who they're leaving it for. In the diary of the CO. That has been left for you. Things. What experiment?

1:37:10 Can you propose Whose outcome could completely contradict your current beliefs. Oh man. Oh.

1:37:23 Experiment that I could run. If I take my current beliefs as one of the big things that we talked about is markets being efficient and it being Quite hard to outperform. The market.

1:37:34 Uh I mean the best the best experiment that we can run is Yes. Trying to beat it. But it's being run all the time.

1:37:41 Isn't there a s a story in The Psychology of Money by Morgan Howsall? Where like was it Warren Buffett? But someone Yeah, Warren Buffett bed tet Ted Sides. Who we've actually had on our podcast.

1:37:52 Uh he bet him that His Index fund portfolio, which I believe is just the S P five hundred. Could outperform any hedge fund portfolio.

1:38:01 that Ted picked. And they had a specific timeline. It was ten years wasn't it? Yeah. And then they were gonna donate the the the an amount of money at the end of the period. And uh Ted lost the bet. Uh Warren.

1:38:14 Four and one. That w that was one of those. Instances where the world kinda got to see Hey this this index fund thing. Buffett has been a big advocate for index funds.

1:38:24 That was a big example where uh I think a lot of people were exposed to that idea. Where do people find you? You know, I've got your YouTube channel here. Ben Felix, which I'll I'll link below for anyone Uh wants to continue to follow you on YouTube. Is there anywhere any any other resources that we should direct people to?

1:38:41 Yeah, an another place where I post actually a little bit more frequently uh with longer form stuff is the Rational Reminder Podcast. And then I do have some interesting Tools for the rent versus buy calculation. We have a goal setting app. I don't think it's up yet, though. And we we've got some other really interesting tools on uh uh the PWL Capital website. PWL Capital.com. I'll link all of that below for anyone that's interested.

1:39:05 Um and the Rational Reminder podcast, rational reminder dot CA slash podcast. And your YouTube channel will be linked below as well. Awesome. Thank you so much, Ben. Thank you for doing what you do because um Finance is such an important part of our life. And I think a huge percentage of the population, for whatever reason, choose to avoid the subject altogether, because it causes a little bit of anxiety. But also we just don't get taught about finance in school, which I think is a great shame.

1:39:27 And in in my case, you know, it wasn't until I destroy my credit rating, my credit score. Um that I started to figure out what finance was and by then Kind of like brushing your teeth. I'd done a lot of damage. And so since then from doing this podcast and speaking to smart people like you that are good at demystifying complex things. And but also in your case that use academic research as the basis for the claims they're making. It has helped to turn the lights on.

1:39:48 For me. And in this domain I think control or like Understanding and information is power. Really like knowledge is power. And a lot of people are disempower because they don't have the knowledge and they kind of they're on that sort of roller coaster of their life circumstance.

1:40:03 And they don't feel like they have control, especially considering that the world feels so uncertain right now. So thank you for doing what you do, Ben. Really, really appreciate it. And hope to meet you again sometime soon. Thanks so much. Uh

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