#278 Peter Thiel

0:00 Steve Jobs return to Apple demonstrated the irreplaceable value of a company's founder. In some way, Steve Jobs and Bill Gates were opposites. Jobs as an artist. Preferred closed systems. and spent his time thinking about great products above all else.

0:15 Gates was a businessman. Kept his products open. And wanted to run the world. But both Push the companies they started to achievements that nobody else would have been able to match.

0:27 A college dropout who walked around barefoot and refused to shower. Jobs was also the insider of his own personality cult. He could act charismatic. Or crazy. All this eccentricity backfired on him in nineteen eighty five.

0:40 Apple's board effectively kicked jobs out of his own company. When he clashed with the professional CEO. brought in to provide adult supervision. Jobs returned to Apple twelve years later. Shows how the most important task in business

0:54 The creation of new value. Can not be reduced to a formula. and applied by professionals. When he was hired as interim CEO of Apple in nineteen ninety seven. The impeccably credentialed executives who preceded him

1:07 had steered the company Nearly to bankruptcy. That year Michael Dell famously said of Apple What would I do? I'd shut it down and give the money back to shareholders.

1:18 Instead. Jobs introduced the iPod. Then the iPhone. And then the iPad. Before he had to resign in two thousand eleven.

1:25 Because of poor health. By the following year, Apple was the single most valuable company in the world. Apple's value crucially depended on On the singular vision. Of a particular person.

1:38 This hints at the strange ways In which the companies that create new technology Often resemble monarchies. rather than organizations that are supposedly more modern. A unique founder.

1:50 Can make authoritative decisions. Inspire strong personal loyalty. And plan ahead for decades. Paradoxically. Impersonal bureaucracies staffed by trained professionals

2:01 Can last longer than any lifetime. But they usually act. With short time horizons. The lesson for business is that we need founders.

2:11 If anything. We should be more tolerant of founders. Who seem strange or extreme. We nід unusual individuals. To lead companies.

2:21 Beyond. Mere incrementalism. That is an excerpt found in the last chapter of the book I'm gonna talk to you about today. The p the chapter is The Founders Paradox. And the book is zero to one. Notes on startups or how to build a future.

2:33 And is written by Peter Teel. So this is the second or third time that I've read this book. All the way back in August of two thousand eighteen. I did uh an episode on two books about Peter Till. It's episode number thirty one. And it's based on Ryan Holliday's fantastic book called Conspira, and then this book that I'm holding in my hand. So I want to jump from the last chapter

2:52 All the way to the very beginning in the preface. Peter tells us why this book exists, and the book exists to help you think. Through how to make new things. And I think it's gonna be interesting for you and I to go through this book again. right after spending so many weeks going through the essays of Paul Graham.

3:07 Because the way I think about the main theme of Paul Graham's essays Which he's writing over multiple decades, is that He's trying to explain how to find work that you love and that other people find find valuable. And if you can do that over a long period of time you'll be really great at it and if you're really great at it, you're gonna get wealthy.

3:25 And that ties into a main theme in Peter's book, which is that you do not want to build an undifferentiated commodity business. And that the founders that capture the most wealth are actually creating Unique and new things. And the best way to do this today is by creating new technology. I wanna actually read a quote That comes from later in the book.

3:41 Where he actually Peter is going to define technology very similar to the way Paul Graham writes about in his essays. And Peter Wrights properly understood. Any new and better way of doing things. Is technology. Last week Paul Graham told us that what is technology? It's technique. It is the way we all do things.

3:58 Sam Walton got rich not by being a retailer But by designing a new kind of store, so let's go to the prefaces zero to one. Humans are distinguished from other species. By our ability to work miracles. We call these miracles technology. Technology is miraculous because it allows us to do more with less.

4:15 Ratcheting up our fundamental capabilities. to a higher level. And this book has some really powerful writing. This is the first example. By creating new technologies, we rewrite The plan of the world.

4:27 And then right after that he goes to another main theme of the book that most of human behavior is just copying what already exists. That is one to N. Peter's not interested in that at all. That's why the book is called Zero to One. He does not go want to go one to end, which is just making more of what already exists. He's like, you have to make cre completely new things. These are the kind of elementary truths That we teach as second graders.

4:47 But they're easy to forget in a world Where so much of what we do is repeat what has been done before. And then he explicitly states the purpose of the Book. Zero to one is about how to build companies. That create new things.

5:01 It draws in everything that I've learned directly as a co founder of PayPal and Palantir. And then an investor in hundreds of startups. I think this book was first published in two thousand fourteen, so he's invested in a ton of other uh other companies since then, but at the time of the writing he's invested o in a hundred of startups. But while I have no oh I love this part. But while I have noticed many patterns and I relate them here, this book offers no formula for success. The paradox of teaching entrepreneurship І за суч а формула несаріка.

5:30 Because every innovation is new and unique. No authority can prescribe in concrete terms. How to be innovative. This is one of my favorite sentences. in the entire book coming up right now. The single most powerful pattern I have noticed is that successful people

5:44 Find value in unexpected places. I'm gonna pause in the middle of this sentence. I'm gonna relate this back to something we talked about last week. Sam Walton built one of the most valuable personal fortunes in the history of the world because he found value in unexpected places, which was these rural small towns throughout America that other retailers ignored. So it's over the single most powerful pattern I have noticed is that successful people find value in unexpected places. And they do this.

6:09 By thinking about business from first principles instead of formulas. This book stems from a course. about startups that I taught at Stanford in two thousand twelve. My primary goal in ticching the class. Was to help my students see beyond the tracks laid down by academic specialties.

6:25 to the broader future That is theirs to create. I don't know why, but when I read that sentence this quote from Steve Jobs popped into my mind the minute that you understand that you can poke life and actually something will pop out on the other side. That you can change it, that you can mold it.

6:40 That's maybe the most important thing. It's to shake off this erroneous notion that life is there and you're just gonna live in it. versus embrace it. Change it. improve it and make your mark upon it. Again.

6:52 Is uh that's Steve speaking. This is Peter again. My primary goal of teaching this class or the class was to help my students see beyond the tracks laid down by academic specialties. to the broader futures. That is theirs to create. So then he starts the first chapter with this question, this contrarian question that he's famous for. I'm just gonna read it to you and explain it to you. Uh, in this context it it's somewhat interesting. I think it's more interesting when he applies it to what is the contrarian question for businesses. In other words, what is the most valuable business no one is building at this moment. Whenever I interview someone for a job, I like to ask the question, what important truth do very few people agree with you on?

7:25 The question sounds easy because it's straightforward. Actually it's very hard to answer. It's intellectually difficult because the knowledge that everyone is taught in school is by definite definition agreed upon. And it is psychologically difficult because anyone trying to answer must say something that she knows to be unpopular. This is a fantastic line here. Brilliant thinking is rare.

7:46 But courage. is an even shorter supply. Then genius. So the contrarian question is what important truth do very few people agree with you on And then he's going to give an example of a way to answer it.

7:57 A good answer takes the following form. Most people believe in X. But the truth is the opposite of X. Why would he start this book out with this question? Most answers to the contrarian question are different ways of seeing the present.

8:11 Good answers are as close as we can come to looking into the future. The subtitle of the book. How to build the future. So that is why he starts the book with the Catrarian question. It's to prompt you into thinking Yeah, of seeing the present in a different way.

8:25 That's how it relates to how to build a future. The other part of the subtitle is notes on startups. Why did he connect the two? Because he feels startups are the ones that are actually going to are the only ones capable of actually building the future. This is why. New technology tends to come from new ventures. Startups. From the founding fathers in politics to Fairchild semiconductors, traders, eight and business.

8:43 Small groups of people bound together by a sense of mission. Have changed the world for the better. So what is this? I feel you and I have talked about in the last three weeks over and over and over again Paul references. The power of small groups.

8:56 specifically the power of small groups of smart people. questioning received ideas. Now we see that exact framework, that exact way of thinking pops up in this book too. So let's go to the next part. It is hard to develop new things in big organizations. bureaucratic hierarchies move slowly.

9:13 An entrenched interest. Shy away from risk. Startups operate on the principle that you need to work with other people to get stuff done. Бо чуні до стай сма. So that you actually can.

9:25 And this next sentence ties both Parts of the subtitle. Notes on startups and how to build a future together. Positively defined, a startup is the largest group of people you can convince of a plan. To build a different future. A new company's most important strength is new thinking.

9:40 Even more important than nimbleness small size affords space to think. This book is about the questions you must ask. An answer. To succeed in the business of doing new things. What follows is not a manual or a record of knowledge.

9:54 But an exercise in thinking that's fantastic. Because that is what a startup has to do. Question received ideas. And rethink business from scratch. So then Peter spends the chapter talking about

10:07 What it was like building PayPal during this uh this time of mass hysteria. So The this fantastic book, uh, I actually became friends with the author. His name's Jimmy Sony. I covered it back on episode two thirty three. It's called The Founders. The story of PayPal and the entrepreneurs who shape Silicon Valley. It covers the four year history.

10:24 In fact, Jimmy Spent more years researching that book, he spent five years researching writing that book. Uh, so he spent a year longer than actually PayPal existed before it was sold to eBay. But there's a lot, a ton of useful information in that book. If you haven't listened to the podcast, listen to it but then buy the book'cause there's just a a lot of useful ideas for startup founders in there. But

10:42 Peter in this book, i the one I'm holding my hand now, is talking about, you know, nineteen ninety nine was a really crazy part. And he starts off saying this quote from Nietzsche, he says, Madness is rare in individuals, but in groups, parties, nations, and ages, it is the rule. If you can I and why is that important to startup founders. If you can identify a delusional popular bel belief You can find what lies hidden behind it.

11:03 The contrarian truth. Why is that important? He just told us in the last chapter. That success is finding value in unexpected places. that value usually goes against the conventional thinking or the conventional beliefs of the time that you're operating in. And the weird thing is it's hard to tell while it's happening, he says conventional beliefs only ever come to appear arbitrary.

11:22 And wrong. In retrospect. Whenever one collapses, so when ever conventional belief collapses. We call the old belief. A bubble.

11:30 And so he was building PayPal during the first dot com bubble from September nineteen ninety eight to March two thousand, and that's what he's going to talk about. And really I don't know why. So he's describing like the crazy behavior that was taking place in Silicon Valley. Um during this time. And I'm just gonna read my note to you first because I don't know why it popped my mind.

11:49 Other than he I guess he's describing things that have nothing to do with serving your customer. So I realized to myself I was like, Oh, an antidote to irrational mania, right? Which is He's just quoting Nietzsche said, Madness is rare in individuals, but in groups, parties, nations, and ages, it's the rule, right? So we're prone to it. I'm prone to it. You're probably prone to it. We're just humans. It's we're prone to this. It's like, what is the antidote to rational mania? And I and it's asking yourself, How does this behavior that I'm doing for my company actually help the customer?

12:14 None of the stuff that's going on in this chapter was helping the customer. And so a way to anchor yourself around how is this helping my customer? It's really a way to act sane when everybody else is being crazy. So he says when I was running PayPal on late nineteen ninety nine, I was scared out of my wits. Not because I didn't believe in our company, but because it seemed like everyone else in the valley I was ready to believe anything at all.

12:33 Everywhere I looked, people were starting and flipping companies. With alarming casualness. And I love the fact that he used the word alarming casualness. One of the my favorite things that John D. Rockefeller ever said, I read his autobiography, which he wrote as a much older man. I think he was like maybe eighty years old when he's writing it. It's episode one forty eight, if you haven't listened to that, uh if you haven't read the book yet.

12:55 You should read it'cause you can read it on the weekend, but the podcast I also think is really good. But I love the way where Rockefeller lets his ego slip when he's writing the book because he's talking about He was working for these two partners. This is before he started his own company. And he just thought they were really sloppy, and he says their casual way of conducting affairs Did not appeal to me.

13:13 And you get the sense in his writing that he was disgusted by their sloppiness. And then he would uh it he never say states this, but I I kinda read through the lines like oh No wonder these guys wind up going bankrupt. They deserve to be bankrupt. They were scrubs. But all these ideas are just embedded in this line. of being disgusted by their casual way of conducting essentially their casual way that they approach their business.

13:35 And even when I think it was like sixteen, maybe seventeen, I forgot how old he was when he's working there, maybe eighteen. But even that he's just saying that that just this casual way of conducting affairs just did not appeal to me. And so we see that same terminology here. Everywhere I looked, people were starting and flipping companies with alarming casualness. And Peter continues acting sanely. began to seem eccentric.

13:54 And so he's describing this environment and then he describes when it pops. He says on February sixteenth, uh, two thousand, the Wall Street Journal ran a story Lauding our viral growth and suggesting that PayPal was worth five hundred million dollars. And I think for experienced founders and investors, just next spent sentence that you've seen the behavior like this in the past. For other people they think, Oh no, the world can't possibly work this way.

14:15 And it does. And this is gonna remind me of my favorite quote. One of my favorite quotes, I shouldn't say my favorite quote. uh from Naval Ravakan and he says my number one repeated learning life There are no adults. Everyone is making it up as they go along. Figure it out for yourself and do it.

14:28 What why is this tied to what Peter's talking about in the book?'Cause he's like, Well This Wall Street Journal comes out on February six this article on my company in PayPal. Comes out February sixteenth, two thousand. Says look how fast these guys are growing. Uh, it suggests that PayPal was worth five hundred million dollars, right? The the journalists writing that just took a number out of thin air.

14:46 What why What why does that matter, right? Because this very next sentence is will blow your mind. When we we raised a hundred milliн dollars the next month, our lead investor. took the journals back of the envelope valuation

15:00 As authoritative What? The how? Other investors, I mean we're kinda coming through a period a little bit very similar to this. At least that's the opinion of

15:10 uh this legendary investor named Bill Gurley. He was uh in this industry, working in the industry. I saw him reply reply back to somebody. Somebody asked for people who were there, does this feel meaning the time that we're in right now, does this feel like the dot com bus level unwinding yet? And his simple answer was yes. And so Peter's gonna describe more of uh what was taking place at this time. Other investors were in even more of a hurry.

15:31 A South Korean firm wired us five million dollars without first negotiating a deal. Or signing any documents. When I try to return the money. They wouldn't even tell me where to send it. And so Peter says this time was crazy, but the problem is the people that live through this actually learn the incorrect lessons.

15:47 So there's gonna be he's essentially has four opposite principles for entrepreneurs. First season of scribe. What is the normal reaction to the dot com bust and then his reaction, which is almost completely opposite. He says entrepreneurs who stuck With Silicon Valley learned four big lessons from the dot com crash that are still guiding business thinking today.

16:05 So I'm gonna tell you just one or two sentences from the description'cause this goes on for a few pages. I'm not gonna read the whole thing. It's actually two pages, but number one, make incremental advances. Small incremental steps are the only safe path forward. So he's can He's describing what he feels is a conventional lesson. Taken from the dot com. bust and then he's going to t describe the opposite what the lessons he took.

16:25 that are almost completely opposite. So that's number one, make incremental investment advan advances. Number two, stay lean and flexible. All companies must be lean, which is code for unplanned. Planning is arrogant and inflexible. Number three, improve on the competition. Do not try to create a new market prematurely. Number four.

16:41 Focus on product, not sales. Technology is primarily about product development, not distribution. So one of my favorite things of the book is the fact that he repeats that over and over again. That sales and distribution are just as important as product. And so he says these are the four things that most entrepreneurs learn from the dot com crash. This is he saying, Well Actually, the opposite principles are probably more correct. And so this is Peter's four opposite principles for entrepreneurs.

17:05 Number one, it is better to risk boldness than trivial triviality. Number two, a bad plan is better than no plan. Number three, competitive markets destroy profits. Main theme of the book. Do not build an undifferentiated commodity business. He does a great job of describing

17:22 in this book, how power laws rule everything around us. I'll get there in a second, but that's what he's talking about there. Competitive markets destroy profits. Number four, sales matters just as much as product. And then again, he explicitly tells us why he wr he's writing this. The b to build the next generation of companies, we must abandon the dogmas created after the crash. That doesn't mean the opposite ideas are automatically true. You can't escape the madness of crowds by dogmatically rejecting them.

17:46 Instead, this is my favorite part. uh of the contrarian question. Instead ask yourself How much of what you know about business is shaped by mistaken reactions to past mistakes. The most concurring thing of all is Is not to oppose the crowd.

18:01 But to think for yourself, that is a main theme that you and I have talked about over and over again. None of this works for entrepreneurs and investors. If you cannot trust your own judgment. If you cannot trust your own judgment, you have to go work for somebody else. The business for now we get to the the part that I I was referencing earlier that I said is my f my favorite part about the Katarian question. the business version of to of our contrary in question is.

18:24 What valuable company Is nobody building? This question is harder than it looks because your company could create a lot of value. without becoming valuable itself. Creating value is not enough.

18:36 You also need to capture some of the value you create. And so now we get to one of his main themes is that you should aim for monopoly. But he says by monopoly, we mean the kind of company that's so good at what it does That no other firm can offer a close substitute. So he started the chapter. On the previous page.

18:55 Comparing like the market cap. and profit performance of all the airlines compared with Google. Like there's only one Google. Therefore it can capture a lot more of the value that it creates. Where all the airlines they may the planes may look different, but they kinda do the same thing. They are not the kind of, they all do the same thing. They're just transporting you from point A to point B.

19:12 And so he's the point is that you want to avoid competition the way you avoid competition is you by aiming for monopoly. And this is one of the punchlines. The airlines compete with each other. But Google stands alone. So again, by monopoly we mean the kind of company that's so good at what it does that no other firm can offer a close substitute. The lesson for entrepreneurs is clear.

19:30 If you want to create and capture lasting value, Do not build an undifferentiated Commodity business. And so he references this exactly what they did at PayPal. He said in two thousand one, My co workers in PayPal and I would often get lunch on Castro Street in Mountain View. We had our pick of restaurants, starting with the obvious categories, he's gonna list a bunch of categories.

19:50 But even if you know there's a dozen options to choose from. So he says in contrast to the competitive local restaurant market, PayPal was at the time the only email based payments company in the world. We employed fewer people than all the restaurants did. But our business was much more valuable. Than all of those restaurants combined.

20:07 And then this is just an absolutely fantastic line. That ties back to the very beginning of the book, on the very first page of the book. The note is the book this book exists to help you think through how to make new things. Why is that important? Every business is successful. Exactly to the extent. That it does something

20:21 Others cannot. All happy companies are different. Each one earns a monopoly by solving a unique problem. All failed companies are the same. They failed to escape competition.

20:33 And he does a great job of summarizing why aiming for monopoly and avoiding competition is a path to create wealth. A creative monopoly means new products. That benefit everybody. and sustainable profits for the creator. Competition means no profit for anybody, referencing what he would just wrote about uh over several paragraphs.

20:52 with the American airline industry. So competition means no profits for anybody, no meaningful differentiation. And a struggle for survival. Then I want to skip ahead to his thoughts on the importance of durability. Uh, this is Charlie Munger's obviously a personal hero of mine.

21:06 I think it was his son in Poor Charlie's almanac in the book Poor Charlie's almanac. says that durability had already b has always been a first rate virtue. In his dad's eyes, so in Charlie Mugger's eyes. He thought durability was always a first rate virtue. For Peter Till, Peter's like, Well listen.

21:22 Technology companies usually follow the opposite trajectory. So he was talking about the fact that like a popular nightclub or a popular restaurant in your city. uh successful ones are gonna collect very healthy profits today. But usually their cash flows dwindle over the next few years or a decade from now. Yeah, because customers tend to move on to like the

21:40 You know, the the newer, trendier alternative. And so Peter's point is well technology companies follow the opposite trajectory that all the value most of the value is happening a decade, two decades from now. And so that is why he prioritizes durability. He says technology companies follow the opposite trajectory. They often lose money for the first two years. Or first few years, rather.

21:57 Most of a tech company's value will come at least ten to fifteen years in the future. And so then he continues the overwhelming importance of future profits is counterintuitive even in Silicon Valley. For a company to be valuable, it must grow and endure. So he actually italicized those words, and endure. It must grow. I think a lot of people have been focused on the grow part and not on the enduring part, right?

22:18 Everybody that you and I study on this podcast knows exactly what Peter's talking about. All of their businesses lasted for decade after decade after decade. So the company To capture all the company value, it has to grow and endure. But many entrepreneurs focus only on short term growth.

22:32 They have an excuse. Growth is easy to measure, but durability isn't. Those who succumb to measurement mania obsess over weekly active users, Month revenue targets and quarterly earnings. However You can hit those numbers and still overlook deeper

22:46 Harder to measure problems. That threaten the durability of your business. If you focus on near term growth above all else. You miss the most important question that you should be asking. Will this business still be around?

22:59 A decade from now. And that Is a much harder question to a uh to answer. Because it says numbers alone will not tell you the answer.

23:08 Instead you must think critically About the qualitative characteristics of your business. And so then Peter takes us through like what are some characteristics do you have a durable business, a business you're gonna be gonna be able to collect profits. Ten, fifteen, twenty years from now. What does a company with large cash flows in far into the future look like?

23:24 Every monopoly is unique, but they usually share some combination of the following characteristics. Number one, proprietary technology. Number two, network effects. Number three, economies of scale. And number four branding. This is not a list of boxes to check as you build your business. There's no shortcut to monopoly.

23:40 However, analyzing your business according to these characteristics can help you think About how to make it durable. So I'm just gonna pull out a couple of the highlights. He goes into this. If you have the book or f uh obviously I think everybody should have this book. Every founder should have this book. You could read it in, you know, two or three days easily. This is in the last mover advantage.

23:58 uh chapter. So number one, proprietary technology. Proprietary technology is the most substantive advantage a company can have. because it makes your product difficult or impossible to replicate. His example is Google search algorithms. Number two, network effects. So he's gonna talk about Facebook there. But this is the way to define network effects makes a product more useful.

24:17 as more people use it. Number three economies of scale. A monopoly business gets stronger as it gets bigger. The fixed cost of creating a product can be spread out over ever greater quantities of sales. Software startups can enjoy especially dramatic economies of scale. because the marginal cost of producing another copy of the product

24:35 is close to zero. This is gonna sound real familiar'cause it's this that idea is in Paul Graham's essays over and over again. I'm sure I've talked about it in most of the last few episodes. He says a core group of talented people can provide something of value to millions. of separate clients.

24:49 And then number four, branding. Which is also I've heard uh Peter talk about He did a bunch of like podcast interviews when he was promoting this book a long time ago, and he says this is something that he the one uh area that he understands the least. Uh in that's branding. Uh, creating a strong brand is a powerful way to claim a monopoly. Today's strongest tech brand.

25:09 is Apple. He the much what This is very fascinating, right? He's writing these words what in uh Two thousand twelve was the class, two thousand fourteen the book is published. you know, almost a decade later.

25:20 Today's strongest tech brand is still Apple. Then he goes into the very beginning of building a monopoly. This is going to be again echoing The ideas that were in Paul Graham's essay. He kept in his essays he kept um Paul Graham kept Quoting this guy named

25:34 Paul Bouchette, I think is his name. It's the engineer who created Gmail and he said that it's better to make a few people really happy And to make a lot of people semi happy. So Peter says every startup should start with a very small market. Small does not mean non existent.

25:51 It is much easier to reach a few thousand people who really need your product. than to try to compete for the attention of millions of scattered individuals. The perfect target market for a startup is a small group of particular people Concentrated together. And served by few or no competitors. That's a fantastic

26:08 Thought I wanna sit here and think about a little bit more and let me read it to you again. the perfect target market for a startup is a small group of particular people Concentrated together. And serve by few

26:20 Are no competitors. The exact opposite of trying to build a product. and compete for the attention of millions of scattered individuals. Once you create and dominate A niche market. Then you should gradually expand into related and slightly broader markets. Amazon shows how this can be done.

26:35 Jeff Bezos founding vision. was to dominate all of online retail. We know this because, you know, I've done what, I don't know. Five, six podcasts on Jeff in the in the archive. Um and when he was at D. E. Shaw They the code name for Amazon inside that hedgephone was the Everything Store. He just started with books. So it says

26:52 Uh, Amazon shows how this can be done. Jeff Basel's founding vision was to dominate all of online retail. But he very deliberately started with books. So now we know how that paragraph ends. Let me read it from the top. Once you create and dominate A once you create and dominate a niche market.

27:05 Then you should gradually expand into related and slightly broader markets. Amazon shows how this can be done. Jeff Bezos' founding vision was to dominate all of online retail. But he very deliberately started with books. And then he points out, Okay, that sounds like you can he read that paragraph over and over again. It sounds like okay, I could do that. His whole point is like sequencing markets correctly is underrated. And it takes discipline.

27:27 To expand gradually. The most successful companies make the core progression. to first dominate a specific niche. And then scale to adjacent markets. A part of their founding narrative.

27:39 So then we move on to I would say Peter's overall worldview. That you can have control a lot more than you think. And Essentially shape the world around you. And that he feels that this belief is completely counter to what is the prevailing

27:53 Culture belief. And so he has an entire chapter called You Are Not a Lottery Ticket. And part of this is that you're gonna be going up against. I don't even know if you go up against. Like there's a lot of people that just don't believe you have you have any control over the future. And so Peter makes the case that this is a relatively new belief. He says every company starts in unique circumstances, and every company starts only once. Statistics don't work when the sample size is one. From the Renaissance and the Enlightenment to the mid twentieth century.

28:16 Luck was something to be mastered. Dominated. And controlled. So he's clearly telling you how he views things, right? Um so it says Ralph Walder Emerson captured this ethos when he wrote.

28:28 Shallow men believe in luck. Believe in circumstances. Strong men believe in cause and effect. And I love what Peter does here. He's challenging us like, Well, do you believe this or not? And if you do believe that everything is just random and luck, then put down the book because you're just wasting your time. So he says in nineteen twelve, after he became the first explorer to reach the south pole.

28:47 Emundson, I forgot how to pronounce his name, wrote Victory awaits him who has everything in order. Luck. people call it. So again the quote there is Victory awaits him. Who has everything in order. Luck, people call it.

29:00 No one pretended that misfortune didn't exist. But prior generations believed in making their own luck by working hard. If you believe your life is mainly a matter of chance. Why read this book? Learning about startups is worthless.

29:13 If you're just reading stories. about people who won the lottery. I'm gonna pause right there. It's at this point at two uh quotes pop into my mind. One I found in this book called Explore Create My Life in Pursuit of New Frontiers, Hidden Worlds, and Creative Spark. written by Richard Garriot. I covered it back on

29:30 Uh episode two fifty seven. And I love what he says here. He goes, My heroes are people who took epic journeys Into the unknown. Often at substantial personal risk. I am simply following the path. That they carved into history.

29:45 And then the second one is a quote that I told you over and over again. It's one of the best things I've ever heard. It comes from Mark Andreessen's blog archive. Episode fifty if you haven't listened to it. The world is a very maljuble place. If you know what you want and you go for it with maximum energy and drive and passion.

30:02 The world will often reconfigure itself around you. Much more quickly. So let's go back to Amundsen's w uh quote victory awaits him.

30:13 Who has everything in order. And this is why it's so important to check, like to take a minute like what do I actually believe? If you treat the future as something definitive, it makes sense to understand it in advance and to work to shape it. But if you expect an indefinite future ruled by randomness, You'll give up trying to master it.

30:32 And then something Peter does great. Is he'll set up the idea. First of all, compare like how this is how most people think. Then he'll s set up the he gives you a hint that this is the way I think Then he tells why is that important.

30:44 Why is it important to have a definitive outlook on the future? And he says a definitive and he's gonna tell us. And this is important to uh to entrepreneurs, and something you and I have seen over and over again in history of entrepreneurship that is very different from what most people's advice is. They tell you they like uh they kinda worship at the altar of diversification. And you'll find many of history's greatest entrepreneurs

31:05 Uh, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Edwin Land, Steve Jobs over and over again. They reject diversification and they go all in. And the way to think about it is they're striving to be great at something substantive. And this is how Peter thinks about it. A definitive view favors firm convictions. Instead of pursuing many sided mediocrity And calling it well roundedness. He is not playing. Instead of pursuing many sided mediocrity.

31:29 And calling it well roundedness. A definitive person determines the one best thing to do. And then does it. Instead of working tirelessly, To make herself indistinguishable.

31:39 She strives to be great. At something. Substantive. to be a monopoly of one. A definitive person determines the best the one best thing to do. And then does it.

31:51 They do not pursue many sided mediocrity. And then I just referenced Steve Jobs, that was no accident. Because Peter starts to end this chapter. On how Steve rejected this idea that you're a lottery ticket and that you can actually pursue a big goal over multiple decades. So he says the most important lesson. To learn from Steve Jobs.

32:10 has nothing to do with aesthetics. The greatest thing jobs designed was his business. Apple imagined and executed definitive multi year plans to create new products and distribute them effectively. Forget minimum viable products. Ever since he started Apple in nineteen seventy six.

32:26 Job saw that you can change the world. Do careful planning. Not by listening to focus groups or by copying other people's successes. Long this is such a great line here. Long term planning.

32:37 is often undervalued. Buyer indefinite short term world. And then he tells a great story to round out this chapter. He was sitting he's the first um outside money into Facebook and he was on their board.

32:51 when they got that billion dollar uh offer in two tausent six And he tells the story of why Mark Zuckerberg completely dismissed even the thought of taking the money at that point. The power of planning explains the difficulty of valuing private companies. When a big company makes an offer to acquire a successful startup, it almost always offers too much or too little.

33:11 And he says you should only sell if you don't have a concrete vision for the company. Founders only sell when they have no more concrete visions for the company. Definitive founders with robust plans don't sell. Which means the offer wasn't high enough. Well, that's interesting that he says that, which means the offer wasn't high enough. But is there always a price? Like for Steve Jobs.

33:31 There's no price, right? There's no I I think if you read a bunch about'em and study'em, it's like you could offer'em ten trillion dollar trap, or this just not he's just not interested, he doesn't care. I mean, not saying he doesn't care about the money, but he's not doing it for the money. There's I don't think there's any price. Uh that he would have you know, if you say What's the price that you don't get to work on this anymore? I I don't think there's a

33:50 Actually any price there. So Uh, but he says, uh, when Yahoo offered to buy Facebook for a billion dollars in July two thousand six, I thought we should at least consider it. But Mark Zuckerberg walked into the board meeting and announced, Okay, guys This is just a formality. It shouldn't take more than ten minutes. We're obviously not going to sell here. Mark saw where he could take the company.

34:08 And Yahoo didn't. A business with a good definitive plan Will always be underrated in a world Well s where people see the future as random. See what he did there? This is nearly twenty pages later at the beginning uh from the beginning of the chapter. He just ties all these ideas

34:24 Together. And the great thing about this book too is you don't have to necessarily read it in sequential order. You can just pick up and read a chapter at a time, which I actually actually think is a a better use after you read it once all the way through, just keep it out and kinda use it as a reference. Cause I think just picking up Basically I'm talking to my own myself here. It's like hey, I should really, um like to get this idea in my brain, reread this chapter from time to time. The you are not a lottery ticket chapter. And then I just gotta read one more thing from this chapter. It's the last paragraph. It's absolutely fantastic. A startup is the largest endeavor over which you can have definitive mastery.

34:55 Definitive. Mastery. You can have agency not just over your own life. But over a small and important part of the world. It begins by rejecting the unjust tyranny of chance. You are not a lottery ticket.

35:08 Then he has an entire chapter on the fact that we don't live in a normal world. We live under a power law, or why do Just a handful of businesses generate All the profits. And the way you think about this is that small minorities often achieve disproportionate results.

35:23 So he says this extraordinary stark pattern doesn't just apply to business. in which a small few radically uh outstrip all rivals surrounds us everywhere in a natural and social world. The most destructive earthquakes are many more times. Are many times more powerful than all other Uh smaller earthquakes combined.

35:39 The biggest cities dwarf all mere towns put together. And monopoly businesses capture more value than millions of undifferentiated competitors. The power law. So named because exponential equations describe severely unequal distributions. Із ловда універс.

35:56 It defines our surroundings so completely That we don't even see it. This chapter shows how the power law becomes visible in When you follow the money. We do not live in a normal world.

36:07 We live under a power law. And so then he talks about his business, which is being a venture capitalist. Sh they they they should he's like the whole point is like power laws dominate venture capital and even most venture capitalists don't understand it. And then he goes into the power laws dominate not only the entire industry, but individual funds as well. The big question

36:25 is when this takeoff will happen for most funds. The answer is never. Most startups fail and most venture funds fail with them. Every V C knows that his task is to find the companies that will succeed.

36:37 However, even seasoned investors understand this phenomenon. Only superficially. They know companies are different. But they underestimate the degree of difference. And it goes back into this theme about this anti diversification.

36:50 Venture returns do not follow a normal distribution. They follow a power law. A small handful of companies radically outperform all others. If you focus on diversification instead of single minded pursuit of the very few companies That be that can become overwhelmingly valuable.

37:05 You'll miss those rare companies in the first place. And then you just got a great sentence about this. Power law distributions are so big that they hide in plain sight. And then he goes into why is the power understanding of power law important for founders. This is gonna be very similar to Again, reference, I want to tie this all together to Paul Graham's essays as well.

37:23 Where he talks about says, listen, Larry Page and Sergey Bryn, the founders of Google, Are wealthy. Because they were the first investors in Google. They didn't invest with their money, they invested with their time and their energy and their skill set. The power law is not just important to investors. It's important to everybody.

37:39 Because everybody is an investor. An entrepreneur makes a major investment just by spending her time working on a startup. Therefore every entrepreneur must think about whether her company is going to succeed and become valuable. Every individual.

37:53 is unavoidably An investor too. When you choose a career You act on your belief. that the kind of work that you do will be valuable valuable

38:03 Decades from now. See what he did there. He tied this idea from a previous chapter that again, this these all tie together, right? couple chapters ago, one of my favorite sentences in the book. about the importance of durability, making sure that you're building a durable company, right? If you focus on near term growth above all else, now I'm

38:20 You miss the most important question you should be asking. Will this business still be around a decade from now? Back to this chapter. When you choose a career, you act on your belief that the kind of work you will do is That you the kind of work you do will be valuable decades from now.

38:37 That is so important. Every decision I'm trying to make is like I just want to make sure I don't mess up a good thing. Because I know most people making podcasts are not going to be around a decade from now. I don't have to be the best. I don't have to be the smartest. I don't have to be the most talented.

38:51 I just have to outlast you. And there's no Fuck. I'm quitting. And so I just love that idea. Let's see who's gonna be around a decade from now.

39:00 When you choose a career, you act on your belief that the kind of work you you do Will be valuable for decades from now. An entrepreneur cannot diversify herself. You should focus relentlessly. on something you're good at doing. I love that he says that.

39:14 But before that, you must think hard. About whether it'll be valuable in the future. And then he ties us back into the fact that we live under a power law, so you must understand it if you're going to succeed. If you do start your own company, you must remember the power law to operate it well. The most important things are singular. One market will probably be be better than all others.

39:34 One distribution strategy usually dominates all others too. You cannot trust a world. Which is he's describing Again, this is what he believes. Now he's gonna go pair and contrast it with What most humans on the planet

39:47 believe right it's completely different you cannot trust a world That denies the power law to accurately frame your decisions for you. So what's most important is rarely obvious. It might even be a secret. And so then he goes right into the next chapter, which is titled Secrets.

40:05 Secrets give you an edge. That is his main Uh that is his main theme in this chapter. It's something uh it's really important. Th the idea of edge, every any time I see the word edge now, I automatically think um Ed Thorpe who's I'm trying to like it's my personal blueprint. Covered him on episode two twenty two, if you don't know what I'm talking about.

40:23 But he's writing a book. He's in definitely his eighties when he's writing his uh maybe eighty. Uh when he's writing his autobiography. And he talks about he's like, Listen, I've had fifty year experience as a as a money manager Uh, he's like, Listen, I believe that the surest way to get rich is to only play games or make investments where I have an edge.

40:41 Secret give you an edge. Let's go to Peter. Every one of today's most famous and familiar ideas was once unknown and unsuspected. A conventional truth Can be important. It is sen it's essential to learn elementary mathematics, after all.

40:55 But it does not give you an edge. It is not a secret. And so using contrarian thinking is how you Uncover secrets contrarian thinking. Does not make any sense though, unless the world still has secrets left to give up.

41:07 We call the business version of our contrarian question. What valuable company is nobody building? Every correct answer is necessarily a secret. Something important and unknown. Something hard to do.

41:19 But doable. If there are many secrets left in the world There are probably many world changing companies yet to be started. So if you think about what he's saying there in the paragraph. In that paragraph, how do you spot opportunity? You ask yourself, What valuable company is nobody building?

41:33 And there's just a few sentences later on in the chapter that made me think of when Paul Graham writes in the i the essay Uh Schlepp Blindness. Talks about problems that are so difficult that people like they're hiding in plain sight. He uses stripe as an example. It's like how many you know, tons of developers knew it was a pain in the ass to accept a credit card online, and yet they'd build like recipe aggregator websites or whatever. Uh, because it just like it's just so tough. It's like hiding. I just can't even think that you it's even possible.

41:59 And so Peter says, If you think something hard is impossible You'll never even start trying to achieve it. Same idea. One is in the zero to one book. The other idea same idea is written in a different context in Paul Graham's essay. I love how this shit fits together. I n that that always gets me excited. You take something hard is impossible, you never even start to try to achieve it.

42:18 Belief in secrets is an effective truth. The actual truth is that there are many more secrets left to find, but they only yield to rel to relentless searchers. The same is true of business. Great companies can be built on open but unsuspected secrets about how the world works. And then this gets into the fact that Peter is

42:39 He believes in the ability to conspire to have a conspiracy to have a secret to recruit ko conspirators To not tell the outside world what you're doing. And to effectively plan and change the world around you. that it not only for business, which is this business uh, which is what this book is about.

42:55 But if you haven't read Ryan Holiday's uh fantastic book, Conspiracy. goes into essentially Peter seeking revenge on somebody. uh the the actual storytelling, whether you think it was a good idea or not. Uh Th that's not really what I'm debating here.

43:09 I think the storytelling and the writing of that book is absolutely fantastic. In fact I have Uh the hard cover The Kindle. And the audible. uh version of that book. I liked it so much.

43:19 Uh so This is Essentially, I'm like leaning into or leading into uh the end of this chapter, which I thought was interesting, is the fact that when you do find a secret Peter's gonna tell you. Shut.

43:30 Up about it. Bad boys move in silence. If you find a secret, you face a choice. Do you tell anyone? Or do you keep it to yourself? It depends on the secret. Some are more dangerous than others.

43:39 Unless you have perfectly conventional beliefs, it's rarely a good idea to tell everybody. Everything. That you know. So who do you tell? Whoever you need to and no more.

43:50 In practice. There's always a golden mean between telling nobody and telling everybody. And that is a company. The best entrepreneurs know this. Every great business is built around a secret that is hidden from the outside.

44:03 A great company. Із а консрасі то чан the world. When you share your secret. The recipient becomes a fellow conspirator. Okay, so then he gets into the importance of laying the foundation for your company.

44:17 that if you mess with the foundation you cannot fix it. This is gonna again tie into what um The fact that Uh Paul Graham writes in his essays that on the Y Combinator application, they ask more about the relationship between co founders than anything else. And this is why every gate great company is unique.

44:33 But there are a few things that every business must get right at the beginning. I stress this so often That friends have nicknamed this Teal's law. Which is a startup messed up at its foundation cannot be fixed.

44:46 Bad decisions made early on. If you choose the wrong partners or hire the wrong people, for example are very hard to correct after they are made. It may take a crisis on the order of bankruptcy before anybody will even try to correct them. As a founder, your first job is to get the first things right.

45:00 Because you cannot build a great company on a flawed foundation. And the very first decision that's most important is who you're picking as a co founder. When you start something, your first the most crucial decision is to whom Is to make

45:12 It's whom to start it with. Choosing a co founder is like getting married. And founder conflict is just as ugly as divorce. If the founders develop irreconcilable differences The company becomes the victim.

45:26 When I consider investing in a startup, this is gonna sound a lot like Paul Graham and Y Combinator. I study the founding teams. Technical abilities and complimentary skill sets matter, but how well the founders know each other and And how well they work together matter just as much. Founders should share a prehistory.

45:42 before they start a company together. And a few pages later he goes back into why this is so important to make sure that you're picking the right people that are around you. Since time is your most valuable asset. It is odd to spend it working with people who don't in who you don't envision any long term future together.

45:59 If you cannot count durable relationships Among the fruits of your time at work. You haven't invested your time well. And so the next sentence he says is exactly what Steve Jobs told us back in nineteen eighty seven. He was interviewed in that for that book in the company of Giants.

46:14 And they're like, Hey, uh they're like Stanford NBA students, if I remember correctly. And they're like, Yeah, but startup founders don't have a lot of time to recruit people. And Steve's like, No, I I disagree completely Recruiting. is the start this is the founder's most important job. And he's like, you know, you're

46:29 the the success depends on the first ten people that you recruit into your company. And Peter Thiel says recruiting is a core competency. It should never be outsourced. And he says this is extremely difficult because talented people do not need to work for you. They have plenty of options. So he gives us a couple ideas here.

46:46 General and undifferentiated pitches do not say anything. About why a recruit should join your company instead of many others. The only good answers or specific to your company, so you will not find them in this book. But he does give advice where it's like you need to pick somebody that's obsessed with working for your specific company because they believe in the mission.

47:06 Do not fight the perk war, meaning The kind of people that are swayed by what he says like free laundry pickup. or pet daycare would be a bad add addition to your team if you're a startup. Just cover the basics like health insurance and then promise what no other sc no other company can. The opportunity to do irreplaceable work on a unique problem Alongside great people.

47:27 Ideally You're shooting for a tribe of like minded people Fierc devoted. to the company's mission. And then Peter talks about one of the best ideas I've actually ever heard from him.

47:39 This is the idea he used when he was CO of PayPal and he's like He would only assign one thing. So see, it's under the subtitle, Do One Thing. There's actually a video, I'll leave it linked below. Where um Keith Roy, who's a founder and investor, but at the time was working um

47:54 At PayPal under Peter. gives some more context to why this is valuable. I'll read from that transcript in one second. Let me let me Lay out the idea in Peter's own words. The best thing I did as a manager at PayPal was to make every person in the company responsible for doing just one thing.

48:08 Every employees uh one thing was unique and everyone knew I would evaluate him Only on that one thing. In fact, if you try to go up to Peter and talk to su to him about something other than the one thing that he assigned to you.

48:21 He would not have the conversation with you. So it says and everyone knew I would evaluate him only on that one thing. I had started doing this just to simplify the task of managing people. But then I noticed a deeper result. Defining roles reduce conflict.

48:32 Most fights inside a company. Happen. When colleagues compete For the same responsibilities. And so there's a video I'll leave below. It's called Insist on Focus. It's like three minutes long.

48:42 And I'm just gonna read from the transcript r real quick, which is Keith Rebois describing why Peter Thields do one thing and only talking to them about one thing. uh was actually such a successful strategy. He says the reason this was such a successful strategy is that most people, perhaps all people, tend to substitute uh substitute from A plus problems. uh that are very diff difficult.

49:04 To solve B plus problems, which you know a solution to. Or you at least are on a path to solve. He says, Let's say you have a check list every morning, imagine waking up A lot of people write checklists of things they need to accomplish. Most people have an A plus problem. But they don't know the solution, so they procrastinate on that solution.

49:21 And then they go down the checklist to a second or third initiative. And then they'll go and try to solve those problems to cross them off the list. The problem is If your entire organization is always solving the second, third, or fourth most important thing. You never solve the first. And so Peter's technique of forcing people

49:37 To only work on one thing. Meant everybody had to work on A plus problems. And if every part of the organization once in a while can solve a problem That the rest of the world thinks is impossible. You wind up with an iconic company.

49:52 That the world's never seen before. And then let's go back to this chapter. We'll end it here. I love what he says. Colts over and over again. I think the episode where I talked the most explicitly about this is uh Number two forty four on um In and Out. uh in and out burger. The best startups at Trader Joe's is also a version of of this idea that Peter's talking about the best startups might be considered slightly less extreme kinds of cults.

50:16 The biggest difference is that cults tend to be fanatically wrong about something important. People at a successful startup are fanatically right. About something those outside. Have missed. And then he has an entire chapter.

50:30 uh dedicated on the importance of sales and distribution Uh the the beginning of the chapter we'll get to in a second, but one of the most important sentences in the entire book Is when he right superior sales and distribution by itself. can create a monopoly. Even with no product differentiation.

50:46 The converse is not true. And then this is another example of something uh he we brings up a few times where there's just a lot of things that are hidden in plain sight. Even though sales is everywhere. Most people underate its importance. Distribution may not matter in fictional worlds, but it matters in ours.

51:03 We underestimate the importance of distribution and he's gonna define that as a uh as a term, a catch all term. For everything. uh that it takes to sell a product. And so he says customers will not come Just because you build it.

51:14 You have to make that happen and it's harder than it looks. In Silicon Valley, nerds are skeptical of advertising. uh of advertising, marketing and sales because they seem superficial and irrational. But advertising matters because it works. It works on nerds and it works on you. You may think that you're

51:30 That you're an exception. that your preferences are authentic and advertising only works on other people. It's easy to resist the most obvious sales pitches, so we entertain a false confidence In our own independence of mind. But advertising doesn't exist to make you buy a product right away.

51:46 It exists to embed subtle impressions. That will drive sales later. Anyone who cannot acknowledge its likely effect on himself is doubly deceived. And he goes into this idea that the best sales is hidden that the grandmasters of sales Uh, and he references a few in the book, but we're gonna use an example from eighteen seventy six in uh the writing of Mark Twain.

52:08 It's just a really interesting thought about the the best sales is actually hidden. There are uh sales grandmasters. If you don't know any grandmasters it's not because you haven't encountered them. But rather because their art is hidden in plain sight. Tom Sawyer. Managed to persuade his neighborhood friends to whitewash the fence for him. This was a masterful move.

52:28 But convincing them to actually pay him for the privilege. Of doing his chores Was the move of a grand master. And his friends were none the wiser. Not much has changed since Twain wrote

52:40 In eighteen seventy six. The most fundamental reason that even business people underestimate the importance of sales is a s systematic effort to hide it. At every level of every field in a world. That is secretly driven by it.

52:54 The engineers grail is a product great enough to quote Sell itself. But anyone who would actually say this about a real product must be lying. Either he's delusional, which means he's lying to himself Or he's selling something and thereby c thereby contradicting himself.

53:08 It's better to think this is such so fantastic. It is better to think of distribution as something essential to the design of your product. If you invented something new But you hadn't invented an effective way to sell it. You have a bad business.

53:23 No matter how good the product This is something I bring up over and over again. There's this fa this famous speech where uh Steve Jobs It's on Steve Jobs plan to return to Apple or plan to turn around Apple. He gives it r right it's like uh nineteen eighty seven from maybe nineteen ninety eight.

53:39 It's a few weeks after he had returned to Apple. But what's so fascinating about that that talk, which it's it's a really great talk to to To watch. Is I when you hear people describe it.

53:50 They tend to focus on Steve's comments about going back and building great products, the fact that Apple's products suck at the time. He says, you know, they have no sex in them is one line that's from the the talk that's rather famous. But what they miss is the fact that he said We're g we're going to get back to great products, great marketing. And great distribution.

54:09 It wouldn't have worked if it was just we're gonna get gr back to great products. That's not what he said. And it's exactly what Peter's saying here. It's you need to think of distribution as something essential to the design of your product. If you've invented something new, but haven't invented an effective way to sell it, you have a bad business. No matter how good the product. So then he goes into what I feel is the most important

54:28 Sentence. in this chapter that I've already read to you. Superior sales and distribution by itself can create a monopoly. Even with no product differentiation. The converse is not true. No matter how strong your product, even if it easily fits into already established habits and anyone who tries it likes it immediately.

54:43 You must still support it. with a strong distribution plan. And then Peter says that distribution, like many things in life, will also follow under the power law. This is his entire I'm gonna read the entire Paragraph. Uh it's titled The Power Law of Distribution. One of these one of these methods is likely to be far more powerful than every other

55:01 For any given business. Distribution follows a power law of its own. This thing this is counterintuitive for most entrepreneurs. Who assume that more is more. But the kitchen sink approach.

55:13 Employ a few salespeople. Place some magazine ads. and try to add some kind of viral functionality to the product as an afterthought. Does not work. Most businesses get zero distribution channels to work.

55:24 Poor sales rather than bad product is the most common cause of failure. If you can get just one distribution channel to work. You have a great Business. And then he ends with a main theme in the history of entrepreneurship.

55:37 Everybody sells, everything requires to be sold. Everybody sells. Everybody has a product to sell. No matter whether you're an employee. A founder

55:47 Or an investor. And then I'll end on this parting advice. Our task today is to find singular ways to create new things. That will make the future not just different. But better. The essential first step.

55:59 is to think for yourself. And that is where I'll leave it for the full story. Highly recommend buying the book. If you buy the book using the link that's in the show notes in your pocket spayer. You'll be supporting the podcast at the same time. If you want to use the same app that I use to store all the highlights and notes for the books that I read, I use this app called ReadWise, and they will give you 60 days free to try it. To see if you like it as much as I do.

56:20 All you have to do is go to readwise.io forward slash founders, and that link will also be in the show notes. That is two hundred and seventy-eight books. Down one thousand ago. And I'll talk to you again soon.

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