Transcript

Scaling solutions for the climate crisis, with Vinod Khosla

0:01 The very best founders I know are brilliant at building systems. They connect teams, they remove bottlenecks, and they eliminate single points of failure. And yet When it comes to their own wealth. Most are running a disconnected stack. A tax accountant here and a state attorney there, a wealth manager who doesn't talk to either one of them.

0:22 Creative planning was built to fix exactly that. One integrated team of tax professionals, state planners, investment specialists, all coordinated by a dedicated wealth manager who sees your full financial picture and keeps every piece working together. Proactive tax efficiency, state strategy, investments all under one roof. Creative planning where wealth works together. Learn more at creative planning dot com slash masters of scale.

0:53 Hey folks, Jeff Berman here. I am thrilled to share some of the new names who will be joining us at this year's Masters of Scale summit. This may be our biggest stage yet. Reed Hastings, Meredith Whitaker, Van Jones, Amjad Masad, and more. Will be there with us October 20th through 22nd in San Francisco. If you're building something great, or you want to build something great, We want you there with us too.

1:20 Join us at masters of scale dot com slash apply twenty six. That's mastersofscom slash apply. Twenty six. Hi folks. Jeff Berman here.

1:34 This week we wanted to share a conversation I had in the fall with Vinob Kosla. Benoit joined me on stage at the 2024 Masters of Scale summit to discuss a range of issues, including one of his passions. How to scale solutions to climate change. The entrepreneur and billionaire investor is a true Titan of tech.

1:55 He's the founder of Sun Microsystems and Coastal Ventures, and over the past several decades, he's been integral to the success of dozens of tech companies. Binode believes we only need a handful of dedicated change makers to turn the tide on the global climate crisis. You gotta have incredible talent at every position. There are fires burning when you're going out. Can you believe it? Such an idiot. And then you go back to this is totally gonna be amazing. There are so many easy ways. I have no idea what to do. Sorry, we made a mistake. But you have to time it right. Oops. Ten years later and be like, well that's just how you do it. We haven't made it. Just how you do it.

2:46 This is masters of scale. I'm Jeff Berman. Your host. I spoke with Venode on stage at the Presidio Theater in San Francisco back in October.

3:02 We dove straight into a thesis he champions. That we need a small But mighty number of what he calls instigators to turn the tide. on climate change. Will you start by telling us about your instigator thesis?

3:21 I've dealt with instigators which are really entrepreneurs all my life. But when I was looking at the climate problem and people kept telling me It was a very hard problem, not a solvable problem. I looked at it carefully. And I said

3:40 It's a much simpler problem than people make it out to be. You only need a dozen instigators. in a dozen areas. Everybody can help, everybody can But We need

3:56 A dozen instigators to solve the climate crisis. Well I mean okay, so it it matters, but it doesn't matter in the grand scheme. If I drive an electric car or what have you, why a dozen in a dozen areas? Because there's only a dozen large areas that have large carbon emissions. Now I'm talking carbon emissions, I'm separating climate change from sustainability. Can you unpack how you view them differently? Uh sustainability about is about recycling and

4:28 Things like that. green approaches, uh uh it gets mixed in with some of the wellness approaches to food and other things. But if we are strictly looking at the climate change problem, it's about carbon emissions. And there's a dozen important areas, electric vehicles is one.

4:49 Aviation fuel is another. Plant protein or proteins is another. There's only a dozen large emission areas. that really matter if we solve them

5:03 We will mostly have solved the climate crisis. or the carbon emissions crisis. If we don't It doesn't matter what else we do. And your view is literally one instigator, one entrepreneur in each of these categories can make a difference.

5:22 I hate giving Elon Musk any credit, but I do give him credit. For instigating the change Without him We would be on a very different path dependent on General Motors

5:36 And Volkswagen Ford to ship electric cars. So he did more than Without ever being in the car business. to change the paradigm of what's accepted and then got everybody to follow. We we contain multitudes, even Elon Musk. Yeah. Yes.

5:54 You know, Pat Brown did that with plant proteins. And I think those are well on our way. And it's through fundamental science innovation. Bombgard's done that in fusion?

6:14 I don't think fusions uh If question I think Five years from now, nobody will be debating. Where the fusion's possible.

6:24 Why do you believe we'll be there and within five years? Just because You know, if I looked at twenty eighteen.

6:35 I think that was the year we invested in Conwell Fusion, by the way, also invested in uh OpenAI the same year. In a public transit system, three fundamental things. In one year I was very proud of that here. But It isn't that Bob started that company. We started it in a way

6:55 We are in the following five years. Maybe a dozen, maybe twenty startups started doing the same thing. And then when there's that many shots and goal And talent and money are flowing in? Which is what Bob caused to happen, and that's an instigator.

7:13 So at this point, whether Bob succeeds or fails, I think the world will Have fusion. Because there's so many good scientific attempts.

7:24 And do you believe we have enough time I didn't speak to that issue. I do think we are well on our way in steel. I think we are well on our way to sustainable aviation fuel, and these are things most of you probably haven't heard of.

7:42 But I've seen the state of development to say at this point it's mostly engineering risk. Very often the risk is cost. But Dispatchable power generation is a big one that

7:54 There's more than one approach. And we've instigated that change. If I take these dozen areas I'd say

8:04 Eight of the dozen. Have very good Scientifically sound efforts to develop the technology. That's the optimist in me. My bet is by twenty thirty most of these areas

8:17 We'll have a solution. And then the twenty thirties will deploy'em, build five plants, ten plants. But at that point we get to a point where we can do Thousands of plants a year.

8:31 in each of these areas, whether it's steel or power generation or other. I think we are now legally required to talk about AI in every w conversation. So I'm gonna not break the law here. How will AI help us achieve The twelve on twelve. Yeah. So The first thing I would say is we should be cautious. About

8:51 Ascribing too much to AI. How many people know the Neuro Eps conference here? Raise of hands. It's sort of the go to conference for AI, very few hands up. And I looked at last year's papers and the years before on AI and climate change. And I said none of these approaches.

9:11 These efforts. of AI in climate change are going to be consequential. Why not? Just because they address minor problems. You know, building efficiency isn't a climate change problem. You can improve it two, three percent, but

9:25 Yeah. Making very little progress. Unless you get to eighty ninety percent reduction in carbon in every one of the major areas, we're not gonna get there. And so I'm only looking for the ninety percent reductions, not the ten or twenty percent

9:42 improvements in efficiency or other things. In which categories do you think AI may help us the most? Well, So I think in the next couple of years we'll get to an area where we have what I call and you know, uh this is not an original term.

9:57 AI scientists. Then you can apply. of much faster rate of scientific progress. In materials design, for example. We are using AI in convert fusion to control plasma.

10:12 Plasma control is a hard problem. We are using AI, Conval Fusion is partnering with DeepMind to do that. But I do think fundamentally AI scientists to get creative about new approaches in some of these areas will make a huge difference. I wanna take us beyond climate, if I may, unless there's something you wanna you wanna add there. Taking the instigator thesis into healthcare, for example. We have at least a couple of companies here, including Transcripta.

10:42 uh that are using AI to discover new applications for existing drugs, to discover new drugs. How do you think about the instigator thesis as it applies to health care, particularly with AI helping? I think I would broadly say entrepreneurs cause most of the radical change. When it comes to incremental innovation, big companies are relatively good at it. And Intel can do a good job of moving from a seven nanometer semiconductor process to a five nanometer process. Uh, but in the forty years I've been doing innovation now only done in technology based innovation.

11:22 I can't think of single example. Of large innovation. That was done by a large Well No.

11:32 or a large institution or a government program. Uh Патін і кейс Weather I like to put it the following way.

11:42 Did Amazon reinvent retailing or was it Walmart or Target? We talked about Elon Musk, it wasn't General Motors or Volkswagen. Yeah. Airbnb you might have talked that hey Hilton or Hayek would know how to do that. Or in Uber's case you'd

12:00 Think somebody like Hertz uh will reinvent that area. There isn't a single example I can think of a large innovation. that a large institution was part of doing. or predictable. Now big companies help they pile on.

12:19 Today we are dependent on the big company auto companies to build EVs. But they're wall switched. Because somebody has shown the way and that's what instigators do. And that is happening in healthcare. Vaccines were d done that way.

12:34 Almost all the large innovation is happening at many levels. You talked about drug discovery. You know, the idea of being designed by AI.

12:48 Very powerful. I think I first talked about it ten years ago in a long piece I wrote. But every company is now getting on that bandwagon, they'll have. And how quickly do you think we'll see the revolutionary change, not the evolutionary change, but the revolutionary change in healthcare? Healthcare depends on regulatory control. So that

13:10 limits what we can do at the drugs level. No matter whether you have AI design drugs or other traditional drugs, You got a tinier Process. Oh getting a drug approved.

13:24 FPA. Now there's a cheat to that that I'd love to see happen and we are working on it. If you design a drug that's for one person You know, today we design a drug and works for all seven billion people on the planet, whether it's A fancy drug or a simple aspirin.

13:43 And different people have different genetics. We don't Optimized for that. You could design a drug for only one person. I don't know how the FPA would handle that. We are attempting to see how that might go. Design the drugs with the help of AI for one person, one patient at a time.

14:02 Much easier to do in certain classes like genetic diseases. You can do that. Mm-hmm. The other end is And I'm very excited about this idea. It's hugely disruptive.

14:15 How many people have heard of it? Thesis put up on AI about two weeks ago called AI Dystopia or Utopia. I postulated All expertise will be free.

14:29 If you look up in Tech Crunch, In twenty twelve I wrote a blog called Do We Need Doctors. Under a simple piece is in twenty twelve. Later expanded to a hundred page thesis by twenty sixteen.

14:43 We won't need doctors for their expertise. Because AI will be the best primary care doctor. We're working on that. A I will be the best An easily scalable Therapist. For mental health.

14:57 AI will be the best on colleges. In most of these areas, by the way, it's not restricted to medicine. AI will be the best structural engineer. Mm-hmm. Yeah, I will be the best salesperson or marketing person. So

15:13 Almost all expertise? will be near free. Okay. The best marketing person and the best sales person. Yeah. I mean that that's that's not necessarily intuitive, at least not for me.

15:26 Because there's only a dozen start ups doing salespeople. So but in each case there are sparks of creativity. There are relational components, right? If you and I are working on a deal. There's trust that we build over time, and and I'm able to ask you questions, you're able to ask me questions, we're able to work together in the best case to create a deal. Are you imagining two AI agents

15:50 putting that deal together or how are you imagining that being a more efficient and effective process? The first thing I would say is Just because I can't precisely predict how the change will happen. Doesn't mean the change will. Not happen.

16:05 I'm almost certain the change will happen and radical change. But it's hard to predict exactly how. So if you were to bet and know in in fifteen years things will be the same. I take ten to odds on that with anybody. More from my conversation with Vinod Kosla.

16:27 In just a minute. Hey listeners, Bob here. If you listen to Rapid Response on Masters of Scale, you may be missing half the show because every Friday we release a second Rapid Response exclusively in the Rapid Response feed. The guests and topics are just as compelling and timely. From Ford CEO to NASA's administrator to the lessons from The Devil Wears Prada. It takes about 10 seconds to find, just search rapid response wherever you listen to podcasts and hit follow to make sure you never miss an episode. I hope to see you there. Humans will never be more intelligent than AI.

17:17 There can be two types of companies. Those were great at AI and those that went out of business because they weren't how do we build a future. That is human centered. I'm Rana El Calyubi. And on my podcast Pioneers of AI, we answer that question and so many more. As an AI scientist, entrepreneur, and investor, I know what it takes to build AI that works for everyone.

17:42 Every week, I sit down with the pioneers shaping our future. And we take you behind the scenes of the AI that's transforming our lives. Find pioneers of AI wherever you tune in. Welcome back to Masters of Scale. You can find this conversation and more on our Masters of Scale YouTube channel. Next up.

18:07 I asked Vinode if there are any areas where he thinks human effort will still be more important. Than AI. Okay. There's certain things. That are not rational.

18:20 That make us human. And I think Those categories Will be categories Look, even today.

18:29 Glass like this off a factory line? But I'll pay more for a handmade glass. We all do.

18:39 I do. And so That's the humanness factor. We prefer certain things And we don't have to be rational about everything in our lives.

18:49 We like to think of ourselves as rationalists. I do. But there are things I prefer. And perhaps the irrational decisions are some of the most important ones that we make. I think there was a scientist and I

19:10 who said We make most decisions rationally, except the most important ones. Who do we marry? That's not a rational decision. That is an emotional decision and it should be. That's where humanity comes in and humanness comes in.

19:27 Yeah. And I postulate in my thesis that We will have more room for humanness. Because won't he won't be occupied by the things AIs can do for us.

19:39 You know I'm a techno optimist, but I modified techno optimism with a simple phrase which I use in my long It's a twenty five page essay, so Not

19:51 Easy reading. I see Techno optimism with care and caring. And the care part is AI safety. And the caring part is inclusiveness about everybody else.

20:05 And I do think techno optimism by itself is not necessarily good for society as a whole. It's good for the technologists. But with care and caring. I think it becomes The single most powerful tool.

20:21 We've ever had to move society to an era of abundance. And Being more human. Now people t ask me a simple question like

20:31 Won't it displace jobs? Honest answer? Yes. Um in fact I think eighty percent of all jobs. So If you do the math, sixty five percent of all jobs in twenty years can be done by an AI in those countries that choose to do so. And'll be a country by country political choice.

20:53 So a lot of job displacement and probably a pretty disruptive period, which I define in my essay. But Today Being a farm worker. Having

21:05 to work in Salinas in hundred degree heat eight hours a day for twenty, thirty years. Or working on a gel motors assembly line, mounting a tire on a car for thirty years, eight hours a day. That's not jobs. That's servitude because you need to make a living. I'm pretty certain

21:25 We will have enough abundance and I postulate GDP growth will go from two percent to five percent. And that kind of growth rate? Maybe not our kids, but our kids' kids. We live in an era of abundance. And we will have enough resources to support everybody at a minimum standard of living.

21:45 So people work on the things they want to work on, not the things they have to work on to support their family. Let's end on abundance. Thank you so much. Thank you. The node Koslo's version of techno optimism is an inspiring one, and I'm so grateful he joined us at the Masters of Scale summit. You can find a link to his essay titled AI, Dystopia or Utopia, in the show notes.

22:14 I'm Jeff Berman. Thank you for listening. Masters of Scales await what original. Our executive producer is Eve Tro. Our senior producer is Trisha Bobida. The production team includes Tucker Legerski, Masha Makatanina, Brandon Klein, Timothy Lou Lee.

22:41 Our senior talent executive is Stephanie Stern. Mixing and Mastering by Aaron Bastanelli and Brian Pugh. Original music by Ryan Holiday. Our head of podcasts is the tall Malad. Special thanks to Jay Punjabi, Jodine Dorsey, and the entire Masters of Scale summit team.

22:59 Visit mastersofscale.com to find the transcript for this episode and to subscribe to our newsletter.