Transcript

Reid Hoffman on Trump vs Musk, Zuckerberg’s “superintelligence,” and the next wave of AI

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0:53 Hey folks, Jeff Berman here. I am thrilled to share some of the new names who will be joining us at this year's Masters of Scale summit. This may be our biggest stage yet. Reed Hastings, Meredith Whitaker, Van Jones, Amjad Masad, and more. Will be there with us October 20th through 22nd in San Francisco. If you're building something great, or you want to build something great, We want you there with us too.

1:20 Join us at masters of scale dot com slash apply twenty six. That's mastersofscom slash apply. Twenty six. Most American consumers don't realize how valuable the global market has been for them. I spent a number of weeks in Europe traveling around doing conferences and a number of people kinda talk to me saying, look, you know We really liked having US as a stable trade partner, but maybe China's a more stable trade partner for us now. And I think that's fundamentally very bad for the US economy.

1:59 That's Reed Hoffman, co-founder at LinkedIn, partner at Graylock, and founding host of Masters of Scale. Today, Reed and I dig in about what's noise and what matters most in twenty twenty-five's fast changing environment, from Trump and Musk's public spat. to the conflict between Israel and Iran, to whether AI will really lead to a quote, white collar bloodbath. And what Mark Zuckerberg means when he says Meta is pursuing quote superintelligence. There's much to get to, so let's jump in. I'm Bob Safian and this is rapid response

2:35 I'm Bob Safian. I'm here with Reed Hoffman, co-founder of LinkedIn, partner at Graylock, founding host of Masters of Scale, and co-host of Podcast Possible. Reed, great, as always, to chat with you. Bob, it's great to see you. There is so much

2:53 going on in the economy and in tech right now. It it's hard to know where to focus. How would you describe this moment with so much change on so many fronts? Like do you compartmentalize topics? Do you say like in this bucket is what's going on in AI and over here is what's going on with US trade or Or is it all interconnected for you? Um well it's probably Broadly just for focus and being able to not just get lost in the entire soup of chaos.

3:23 Um, is You know, in Topics. And the s connectivity is on you know, key major theme. So like obviously

3:33 You know, AI plays across everything. kind of like what does it mean not just for obviously work and what does it mean for geopolitics and what does it mean for the invention of science and what does it mean for medicine, but also like even when you kind of see you know, let's send in the National Guard and the Marines to LA. You know, that doesn't necessarily generate the question of AI, but it does generate the, you know, we live in chaotic time. So there's a couple of questions that go across all of them. And when something happens like

3:59 Israel You know Like Is that its own bucket or does it it does it get you to start rethinking other things that are that are around it also? It's mostly its own bucket.

4:13 Um But it does. you know, kind of go into there's this general like the world is More Um descending into chaos like, you know, we're

4:25 Um You know, we've kind of self ended the post World War Two American world order and I think that, you know, there will be thousands of lives and lots of suffering that will come from that'cause I think the Post World War Two American World Order has been one of the You know, most golden

4:43 times in human history and the fact that we have Deliberately self Self um You know. Destroyed that.

4:51 Um will have a bunch of different costs. And I think the costs include You know, increasing Uh conflict and chaos. You know, everywhere in the world. So that has its kind of macro theme, which the Israeli bombing of the Iranians

5:06 is in now I also think of course the Iranian nuclear problem nuclear program is a problem. Um You know, in Trump One I actually thought his ending the the treat was a mistake. But you know um the Iranians are a force for Um

5:24 You know, kind of engaging in kind of global terrorism and global Uh conflict. So You know the fact that There's something being done to try to

5:35 contain kind of nuclear ambitions is not in itself a bad thing. It's probably unfortunate That the way that that's happening is bombing, but Um, you know, I would have preferred the treat, negotiation, words always better than physical violence. Yeah. I have to ask you about the public split between Elon Musk and Donald Trump. Maybe it's a truce now. It's it's hard to say. Regardless, Silicon Valley must be buzzing. I'm curious what the reactions are. Are there any lessons that leaders are drawing from it in in dealing with the president, in dealing with Elon?

6:11 Well, I think there's a whole stack of things. I think one is, you know, there was a bunch of Silicon Valley leaders who Diluted themselves. That Um

6:24 You know, Trump was the sensible business Amen. And the Dems were anti business and that that was that straightforward. And they went, look You know, part of the reason why You know, kind of entrepreneurial people like Elon were getting in

6:38 The The business is because they felt that You know, like for example you know, one of the biggest expense lines in the federal government is the deficit. It's just the uh the interest payments. I'm like it's like we as a country have have over decades.

6:52 borrowed money on credit cards. to kind of finance our operations and just like anyone who knows when they borrow money on credit cards, it puts a huge Gent. And their operating income and what to do. And that's what we've been doing as a country and said, See, they're really sensible. You know, Elon's gonna go in and cut a bunch of cost and we're gonna have a A a budget that is not gonna be as much of a deficit. And I think

7:16 Yeah, part of what You know, Elon's learning from the big beautiful Bill. that's being proposed is we're actually not being business sensible here. And so, you know uh Elon sparked in the way he normally sparks, um, which is to make a whole bunch of frankly

7:32 massively inflammatory tweets. And that caused a Kind of a general. uh reaction on both sides, which kind of informed everyone. There's like one You know.

7:43 This big beautiful bill is not A pro future of American business, because it's gonna increase our deadline a whole lot, that that issue got drowned in you know, various power politicking, you know, Elon saying, you know, the president's only gonna be here three and a half years, I'm gonna be here forty years, you should listen to me, not him, you know, et cetera, et cetera. I think that the question that this is

8:08 Not Call it. business rational, not sensible in governance, not sensible on managing the debt. Not

8:15 sensible on You know, kind of how do we actually in fact help the country get rid of its debt, get back to good business. Um is I think. The broad lesson. That everyone's drawing from it.

8:28 In terms of business sensible, like d do people look at The time and effort that Musk has put into politics and spending his time in Washington. Was that like

8:40 Time well spent in a business sensible way. Um, I think most people think it's probably been a Pretty bad. net negative. What are the actual

8:51 Things that Doge is really uh accomplished. You know, it started with these Big claims about uh shaving off fraudulent expense. to, you know, help right size the deficit. And there were a lot of claims about

9:06 redu reducing fraud and literally zero substantiation about the reductions being you know, particularly fraud oriented. Or anything else. Um so I think that's not been successful. And then obviously Elon's engagement with this has caused

9:23 Yeah. I mean I now see I see Call it.

9:28 three times as many Teslas with anti-ELO bumper stickers. in the in the neighborhoods I drive around in than Um than there are Teslas without anti-Elon bumper stickers. Most purchasers of Tesla's believe in such things as climate change and think that we have to be rational on these topics and the fact that

9:50 You know, Elon is You know, kind of. Uh Like staying silent on an administration that's That's that's kinda claiming that, you know.

10:00 Climate change is a complete fiction. I think that's been You know, not just has Doge been a big problem, but I think like the the test of Tesla customer base. is in Um

10:11 Clear revolt. Uh on this stuff. Um, and so I think all of those things have been have been real challenges. Hm.

10:20 Trump's Economic policy. Certainly the tariff poly's been been wildly erratic. The deals he's talked about remain incomplete. Business rarely thrives in that sort of uncertainty, but so far, at least judging from the stock market, things seem to have stabilized.

10:40 Has Trump already like fundamentally changed the US economy, or so far has it been Mostly noise. So I think it's been fundamentally Changed. But the impact hasn't been

10:57 fully felt. Like I think that most American um businesses and most American you know, workers and most American consumers don't realize How valuable the

11:12 Global market has been for them. That even You know, kind of Um some of our closest allies, let's take Canada, for example.

11:23 you know, tourism from Canada is way down, purchases of American products in Canada is way down. It's entirely based on you know, kind of pronouncements from the White House and actions from the White House. About all of this. that have kind of led this to this happening. And that's just kind of a microcosm. of things that will have

11:44 you know, bad impact on American society, American industry, American companies, American workers, American consumers. Um and I just think that it hasn't really ful the numbers in the market yet. I spent A number of of weeks in

12:00 Uh Europe. uh traveling around doing conferences as I as I do. uh earlier this year and the number of people kinda talk to me saying, look, you know We've we've really

12:11 And um liked uh having US as a stable trade partner, but maybe China's a more stable trade partner for us now. Then I think that's fundamentally very bad for the US economy. Hm.

12:23 Who are you talking to these days when it comes to like understanding government policy. I mean, you had a lot of access during the Biden administration. Where do you get your information today, or where can you have impact? You know, my ethos has always been for decades.

12:40 Any um Western dem democracy leader with who has been you know, kind of duly elected. I try to help them as much as possible. I have zero connectivity with the current administration.

12:54 The US is not really looking Um, for not just mine, but a lot of people like me's input on You know. How to win an industry with AI, what kind of things should mean for policy and other kinds of things.

13:10 Yeah. you know, Western style democracies. I continue to be willing to help. Any well elected government official trying to solve a problem because it's part of being kind of pro humanity, pro society, pro Western society evolutions.

13:28 You launched a new AI company in January. Manus AI focused on drug development. The US healthcare system has often resisted new approaches to improving health outcomes. I mean, lots of companies have become roadkill on that route. Um how much do the challenges in healthcare appeal to you? Uh you know, seem like they're an opportunity versus sort of make you cautious. It's both. You know, can I you're not surprised by my answer. Bob. One of the things that I think we tend to do badly

14:00 within regulatory state and everything else is by trying to make things very reliable, we entire the and try the past against the future. And there's all kinds of ways in which the regulatory system within healthcare uh makes the future slower, much more expensive, much less uh taking of risk in order to accomplish things that are really

14:21 Uh incredible. And that's m my general play is What are smart risks you can take? That have You know. Uh

14:28 society transforming, industry transforming, you know, uh human health or, you know, kind of positive humanity outcomes transforming to have. And the fact that there is a You know, the healthcare system is so challenging and difficult across all these different fronts. It's it's in innovation, it's in payment systems, it's in um liability, it's in all of this stuff. And so that all like You know. Uh it makes me cautious. When you're in a circumstance that say all of these b barriers mean that it's impossible to win, it's impossible to succeed. On the other hand,

15:05 Obviously it's extremely important. And if you can figure out ways to navigate the challenges in which other people don't, you can build stuff that's extraordinary. And that's part of the reason why when I was talking to Siddhartha Mukherjee about You know, how AI Can accelerate drug discovery. Cancer. is the exact right thing. He is obviously the celebrated author, researcher, et cetera

15:28 on this and he's brought in He's brought uh drugs to market successfully, you know, approved by the FDA. He understands the the whole ecosystem of that and said, Okay, let's partner together, then do this, and perhaps You know, what we anticipate very strongly is the acceleration that we get from AI in doing this kind of drug discovery.

15:49 It's gonna be so massive. But that gives us enough. Can I um energy and enough acceleration. That even doing

15:58 You know, navigating all of the different uh challenges in the healthcare system, regulation, payments, et cetera, will be navigable Uh because the benefits Will be so huge. The tenure of RFK Jr. Does that

16:14 Add to the challenges? Does that like is he more open to the opportunities that that you're Can't even think about those things. I'm always hopeful when someone comes in a disruptor That they will do stuff that there were the disruption will be positive for society, positive for humanity, positive for industry. On the other hand,

16:35 Um You know. Everything I've seen Unfortunately continues to echo You know, my worries that I articulated during the confirmation process, which is the confirmation of RFK Jr. may be measured in thousands of Americans' lives.

16:51 That are lost. Um and you know that kind of Um call it non intelligence around vaccines and other kinds of things seems to be the top focus of his work so far.

17:05 Versus the You know, how do we bring More technology to benefit more Americans. to bear, which would obviously be the thing that I would Prefer.

17:16 new disruptors focus on and think is the right thing to do. Whether it's RFK Jr. or Elon Musk, the move fast and break things ethos that underpins much of Silicon Valley's success hasn't translated smoothly to US federal policy in 2025. How can we better navigate the line between good disruption and bad disruption, especially when it comes to the realm of AI? We'll talk about that after the break. Stay with us.

17:58 Hey listeners, Bob here. If you listen to Rapid Response on Masters of Scale, you may be missing half the show. Because every Friday we release a second rapid response exclusively in the Rapid Response feed. The guests and topics are just as compelling and timely from Ford's CEO to NASA's administrator to the lessons from The Devil Wears Prada. It takes about 10 seconds to find, just search rapid response wherever you listen to podcasts and hit follow to make sure you never miss an episode. I hope to see you there. Humans will never be more intelligent than AI. There's gonna be two types of companies.

18:40 Those were great at AI and those that went out of business because they weren't. How do we build a future? That is human centered. I'm Rana Al Khayubi. And on my podcast Pioneers of AI, we answer that question and so many more. As an AI scientist, entrepreneur, and investor, I know what it takes to build AI that works for everyone. Every week I sit down with the pioneers shaping our future.

19:07 and we take you behind the scenes of the AI that's transforming our lives. Find pioneers of AI wherever you tune in. Before the break, Reed Hoffman shared his insights on Trump, Musk, RFK, and the US economy. Now Reed digs in on critical AI developments, from claims that AI will spark a white-collar bloodbath to Meta and Apple's efforts to catch up with OpenAI and Microsoft. Let's dive back in. I saw that the AI firm anthropic CEO Dario Amoti told Axios recently that there was a a coming white collar bloodbath that people are

19:49 Dramatically underestimating AI's impact on jobs. Do you agree with that? Do we know what the impact will be? Well, frankly, no one knows. Anyone who claims they know exactly what the impact is, is either self diluting or other diluting. Um, Darry was right.

20:06 that there is a That over Call it. A decade or three. The will do a massive set of job transformation.

20:17 And some of that job transformation will be replacement issues, just like, for example, when computer programs, Excel, and other things start happening. the people whose jobs it was to write in the ledger the accounting ledgers that job went away. But on the other hand, the accountant job didn't go away. The accountant job, if anything, everyone was predicting the accountant job would go away. And actually, in fact, the accountant job got broader, richer, et cetera. It's like you know scenario planning, financial analysis. Just because a function's coming in that has a you know, kind of a uh a a replacement uh area on a certain set of tasks

20:54 doesn't mean even all of this job's gonna get replaced. It does mean there's gonna be a lot of transformation and that some specific things that used to be described by job description will be completely gone. But that doesn't even necessarily mean that a function is gonna go way down. So I think there is a Massive you know, tsunami of transformation coming.

21:14 And I called Dario to talk to him because you know, deeply respect his point of view on lots and lots of topics. um, about the bloodbath thing and you know, we see the world in in kind of different variables here because bloodbath just implies everything going away versus

21:32 where I tend to think all uh you know having published superagency Із мене єз. If not a long time. Of You know, kind of.

21:43 Person plus AI Doing things. Like could I just replace, for example, my accountants. With You know.

21:51 GPT four. The answer is Absolutely not. That would be a disastrous mistake. And it's just simply like saying, also let's replace my marketing department or my sales department with GBD four. Absolutely not. Now, should each of these departments be using GBD four and Copilot and and Claude and and everything else in order to operate? Yes, they should be starting to experiment with that. There's various ways in each of these departments you can be amplified with his work.

22:17 But that's nowhere close to a bloodbath. The bloodbath is a very You know, internet headlines, media headlines. But One. Not soon. Right. Two.

22:31 Even on the impact. In terms of what's happening. It's I think transformation is the better thing that does involve some replacement. We do have revolutions, but it tends to be when it's a large percentage of jobs in a very short time frame.

22:47 What jobs are most likely to be replaced? They're the ones where we're trying to to program human beings to act like robots, like a customer service script, et cetera, in terms of the in terms of the way you're operating. And that's the most natural replacement. But even then, it's unclear that that will be a bloodbath because of qu the question of what the adoption of the companies look like, how it's refined in, even with massive transformation that will happen in relatively short time frame. So Um Yes.

23:16 I think people are underestimating AI's impact on jobs. But I think inducing Panic. А за респанс

23:25 Is serving kind of media announcement purposes and not actually in fact. intelligent industry and economic and career path planning. You know, we continue to see new advances in AI and new services and new uses, but there are also indications of you know, what some people call AI fatigue. There's a study from S P that says that some companies are scrapping AI initiatives at an accelerated place pace. Why is it so hard for some companies

23:53 To figure out how to get positive returns from AI at this stage. It's partially because it requires and this wanna happen with AI generally, but what it requires doing is kind of retooling how the job works, retooling how the teamwork play works, retooling what the expectations in the system are, because The thing they most naturally want to do, hence a little bit like Dario's white collar bloodbath, is they want to say, Okay, I unplug

24:23 Bob or Reed from Job X, and I plug in a uh AI agent in order to do it, and then it just all continues to work that way. And by the way, that's not what the end workflow is gonna look like, period. Even when You've gotten these agents to quasi autonomy in their being able to function within a workflow process, even as they get there. Um that's not the way Like work is not gonna stay in the same organization. And that's the most natural thing for companies to do. So then they go, Okay, well we don't really know what to do here. So it's would that

24:57 Gets back to is individuals going, Well actually in fact I have a good sense it's like I'm the early adopter of a computer. I'm an early adopter of I have a good sense of how to use this in order to Do the things I'm doing. moderately changing my job. I'm using it to amplify myself.

25:15 You know, et cetera, et cetera. And so, you know, it gets back to the individuals doing this versus the AI initiative. And so that the workers will themselves in some ways define what the jobs or the future and the workflow is like. From experimenting. Yeah. Well, certainly in the next few, to use the poker analogy, turns of the card. That's certainly what's gonna be happening. And I've seen a whole bunch of that all over the place, um, including in my own work. This is one of the things that

25:45 When you get to Industrial age companies Versus AI age companies. And what is the way that the kind of strategy and workflows are gonna need to work? And the thing that industrial age companies, for example, what is still generally

26:01 taught at most business schools and all the rest. Is you And by the way, this part of one of them the miracles of modern management that you know uh US business schools led and other business schools also participated in was was getting to professional management, industrial management was how do we build this industrial in efficiency process of evaluating risk, understanding customer engagement, understanding workflow development, understanding, you know, efficiencies of supply chain and work and all the rest.

26:31 created a massive amount of of productivity and that was a really, really good thing. But But that was industrial age management. And what happens in AI management as you begin to get to the AI agent Um

26:44 How would You know, what would be the dynamic process of how companies should work'cause this industrialized process is almost certainly incorrect. Within a small number of years You won't have as it were any

26:58 fully individual knowledge workers or information workers. Any indiv so called individual contributor will be deploying with multiple AI agents on their team. And they will be managing these AI agents.

27:14 on their team generating stuff. So they the notion of managing work becomes much more of the individual contributor work. That's a clear lens. In terms of how the world work will be evolving. Now you get back to what should be companies doing now.

27:29 Well the answer is The whole thing is gonna be much more dynamic, experimental, and evolutionary. Um, it's gonna look More like You know, like if we want to shift to a military metaphor. Commando teams, you know, Delta Force teams.

27:44 And less like supply chain logistics. Teams. And so you need to be building in that kind of experimental learning evolving. Even when the initial experiments aren't really working.

27:58 for you because you haven't figured out how to put them into your industrialized process, but you want to keep with that experimental process. Because What the future will look like. will be much more dynamic and fluid in terms of how work works. And so I

28:14 Would be I'd be I I think it's a mistake to be scrapping. It may very well be, well, that one didn't work. Reset. Right. Just try it again completely. That's totally fine. Yeah. But saying, Oh, we've tried that AI thing, it didn't work for us, you're like, Oh boy, that's not gonna work out. Mark Zuckerberg has made headlines in recent days pushing for what he calls AI super intelligence. Um, and then many folks have sort of said that artificial general intelligence AGI was still far off.

28:44 Are Mark's plans for real? Well, Mark's plans are for real. I mean I think he's trying to Um Yeah. meta,'cause Mark is very good strategist and

28:56 And thinkers like You know, by having them having focused on All of the AR and Oculus and glasses They didn't focus as much on the AI and part of what he's trying to do is get it get them to intensely focus on AI on what they should be doing because you know while

29:12 Um, you know, they've released some good open source models and so forth. You know, there's a reason why when people are talking about, you know, kind of AI making a difference. They talk about open AI, and they talk about you know Copilot, they talk about Anthropic Claude, and they talk about Google Gemini. And then after that They start talking about things like Deep Seek from China and so forth. They uh you know, Meta hasn't even gotten into that list, um, as is n as as not Amazon and you know, and even though, you know, Apple treads to market itself with Apple intelligence, um, you know, we have yet to see the intelligent part of the Apple intelligence. Um I'm sure it's coming, but uh but but um

29:51 But you know it's Still TBD. And um and so, you know Mark being meta strategic, is diving into this with intensity.

30:01 Here's the complexity and nuance of it, which is look, we already have superintelligence in some ways, you know. G V D four is already super intelligent in ways that You know, outperforms human beings on like breadth. And synthesis of tasks on the like if you use deep research. The speed at which you can generate

30:21 A deep research report. Yeah. Is is frankly superhuman Doesn't mean that there aren't errors, doesn't mean it should be off doing it by itself.

30:30 But that superhuman capability exists. No, it doesn't make me Anxious Because I actually think the natural impulse will be it will be very positive for humanity, for society, for industry. Doesn't mean that there won't be

30:46 super difficult transitions, transformations and jobs and so forth. But But the highest probability is that it will be good. Now that being said. Can it be bad? And the answer is yes. It could be bad by mistakes itself. It could be bad by its hand in human being. It could be bad by carelessness and a set of other things. And so

31:05 trying to increase the probabilities of of great outcomes for society, industries, humanity, et cetera, is great. And try to decrease the bad ones is great and what the we should be doing. Now Mark Announcing Superintelligence is a goal. E. G, please please include me on the map with everyone else.

31:26 Yeah. I think that's a good thing to happen. Um, there's a lot of work. between here and there in order to make that happen. But A, I feel like is there's this term

31:37 New to me, interpretability. It's a sort of a euphemism for the fact that we don't really know how generative AI systems arrive at their outputs. Is that Something that needs to be solved for people to trust. A I in a different way, or are you not particularly worried that interpretability remains A a a mystery.

32:00 It's critical that it solved for certain kinds of tasks. Should we put AI in term in charge of our nuclear defense grid. Absolutely not. Right, like

32:12 No way. Bad idea. But interpretability's a scale. And there's a bunch of stuff where The current level of interpretability is totally fine.

32:21 For how we operate. We were earlier talking about customer service and you said, Well, we don't have really good interpretability. Do we mind putting autonomous agents out there at the front end of customer service calls. The answer's no, because look, how bad could it ultimately be. But you wouldn't necessarily make that your air traffic controller at this point. Exactly. Now, that being said We do want to solve this problem as much as we can.

32:43 Um, and so there's both efforts within the major AI labs, you know, OpenAI and and Anthropic and everything else. You know, trying to increase interpretability, trying to have better governance of these systems, better, you know, absolute reliability of the systems, and then I also th you know, here's a prediction. I think over the next two to ten years, we'll be b also building new technological systems that are integrated in with the current LLMs and generative AI that will massively increase The reliability.

33:15 Possibly. Some interpretability. But as blended into the systems. Essentially

33:23 Um the reliability goes way up. And Even if the interpretability only goes somewhat up. And I think that That is something that we are

33:33 we are intelligently working on. Well, uh as always, Reed, I appreciate your candor in Taking my questions on all these wide ranging things, I I really do appreciate it. Well likewise and Bob it's Always fun to talk with you and you know.

33:47 I think it may be my um almost like my Vulcan uh sign off of the live long and prosperous. I look forward to the next conversation too. Reed's grasp of AI and his pension for nuance always leaves me feeling smarter. One of the key things I take away is that amid the frenzy around AI and the accelerated pace of change, it's worthwhile to remind ourselves that it's a marathon and not a sprint. While some tools may seem like plug and place solutions, We need to be strategic in how we incorporate AI into our workflow today and how we think about that workflow evolving in the future. We don't know what tomorrow will bring in tech, in the marketplace, in politics and geopolitics. What we do know, it'll be the choices of human leaders and each of us individually that will determine how AI and other disruptions define our world.

34:41 I'm Bob Safian. Thanks for listening. Rapid response is a wait what original. I'm Bob Safian. Our executive producer is Eve Tro. Our producer is Alex Morris. Associate producer is Mashumaku Tonina.

35:06 Mixing and Mastering by Aaron Bastanelli. Our theme music is by Ryan Holiday. Our head of podcasts is Le Cal Malad. For more, visit rapidresponsshow.com.