World's No.1 Investing Expert: The Big Shift Is Coming And This Investment Could Be 15x in 5 Years! - Cathie Wood

0:00 I've read through a decade of your research to figure out what the best investment is so anyone can get rich in the future. And you predicted that this will grow by at least five thousand percent. Yes. And my conviction is so high because of what I do on a day to day basis. Is there a woman on planet Earth that manages more money from an investing capacity than you? Maybe not. I'm oversee nearly thirty billion dollars. Okay, so I might have five hundred dollars. What should I be doing with that? So this is all you need to know. Kathy Wood built a multi-billion dollar fund by spotting trends before anyone else. And now, with over forty years of market insight, she's showing you how and where to invest, too. AI is the biggest technological disruption in history. And this Incredible rate of change is making people uncomfortable. But if you are on the right side of change, investment opportunities and job opportunities. Are going to be enormous, but people don't know what to do. For example, many people think Apple is a very safe investment. It is probably going to be disrupted by artificial intelligence. But yeah, Tesla is going to be the biggest. You've invested just over two billion in Tesla? Yeah, because Tesla is the largest.

1:12 AI project. on earth so AI has to be a top priority Not an afterthought. So I've got questions. What's your top ten public stocks that anybody can invest in? What's the philosophy towards investing that will make one rich over time? And then if I want to invest in AI, how should I be investing my money? According to our research, these investments will go up more than tenfold in the next five to ten years. And create incredible opportunities for investors. So number one. Quick one, just give me thirty seconds of your time.

1:47 Two things I wanted to say. The first thing is a huge thank you for listening and tuning into the show week after week. It means the world to all of us, and this really is a dream that we absolutely never had and couldn't have imagined getting to this place. But secondly, it's a dream where we feel like we're only just getting started. And if you enjoy what we do here. Please join the twenty four percent of people that listen to this podcast regularly and follow us on this app. Here's a promise I'm gonna make to you. I'm gonna do everything in my power to make this show as good as I can now and into the future. We're gonna deliver the guest that you want me to speak to, and we're gonna continue to keep doing all of the things you love about this show.

2:24 Thank you. Oh He would. Is there?

2:31 A woman on planet Earth that manages more money from an investing capacity than you. Well, there's probably not someone overseeing Yes, th nearly thirty billion dollars. Uh but I know there are teams out there, including women, that manage maybe a lot more than that. What is it that you do?

2:52 Invest in companies that that are going to that are technologically enabled and that that are going to transform the world as we know it. Robotics. Energy storage. Artificial intelligence

3:09 Blockchain technology. And multiomic sequencing in the life science space the last is the most complicated. And how long have you been a an investor? I started when I was twenty years old.

3:23 Company called Capital Group. And I was introduced to the firm. By Art Laffer. Now, Art Laffer, he's one of the most important economists of our time. He created something called the Laugher Curve. He's advised most presidents since president Nicson. And he's advising president Trump as well.

3:43 How is these five big innovation platforms that you speak of. How is that going to have an impact on The average person's life. Like why do they need to know this stuff?

3:56 How is it gonna change their decision making and change their career and now that the world is moving so quickly into this new world Uh and Bitcoin has become uh so successful an investment. Many people are trying to figure out, okay, how. How do I get involved? with The new world. And when I say get on the right side of change, we think there's going to be a lot of disruption to the traditional world order. When I say that in terms of people understanding what I mean.

4:31 I think many people think Apple is a very safe investment because huge hoard of cash. Very successful smartphone, you know, n number one market share uh of smartphones. in terms of profitability. By far. And yet we can tell you, and this was one of what's called the Mag Six that led the stock market over the last few years. The top six stocks. The top six stocks, the market was very narrowly focused on this ilk of stock.

5:03 And we were saying. You know what? Apple Is probably going to be disrupted by artificial intelligence. And one of the reasons we started asking questions very early.

5:15 Is What is the Ultimate mobile device. Ultimately it's going to be an autonomous vehicle. Apple should have been

5:26 All over that. And they were trying, and we saw one management turnover after another. This is an AI project. And what we were learning as they were turning that team over. Uh time and again. Is

5:41 They they weren't getting AI right. They were not positioning correctly. You're concerned for Apple? I think Apple It has so much cash, it has such a loyal customer base. Uh It will be fine, but maybe i it's revenue growth has slowed to almost nothing. And so maybe it'll be a mature cash cow. That's not what we do. We invest in

6:09 Technologically enabled disruptive innovation AIS the biggest dis technological disruption in history. And if they're not going to get it right, we're not going to be there. So if I want to invest in AI, if I agree with you, Kathy, and I said, you know, I think I think you're right that AI is the biggest technological wave coming into shore and the biggest opportunity. How how should I be investing my money?

6:34 In in in your view, how are you investing your money to capitalize on AI? Many people used to invest in AI Through one stock. That was NVIDIA. That was the check the box. I own the GPU, the chip manufacturer, which is the most important uh chip manufacturer in the AI age. And it's valuation, meaning It's

6:59 price relative to earnings. um really got up to very heady levels. And we were saying At the time, well, if NVIDIA's valuation is correct. There are there m there are going to be a lot of other winners. Who are they? Uh well, our largest position in the flagship strategy ARKK

7:20 Is Tesla. And as we were trying to help people understand why we were swapping away from NVIDIA to stocks like Tesla. And Palantir, which is a software provider. Um We were

7:36 Trying to explain that this new world around AI is going to happen very quickly. And uh Tesla is the largest AI Project.

7:47 Uh I posted that on X and Elon liked it. So it must be true. But it is true if our research is correct. Uh we believe that Um The entire ecosystem associated with autonomous uh taxi networks is going to be worth eight to ten trillion dollars in terms of revenue generation in the next five to ten years.

8:16 And if you want to put that in context. The the entire GDP of the world today is about a hundred and thirty trillion. So ten trillion is going to move the needle. Tesla are launching their first cyber taxi, I believe, in Austin in June, potentially? Yes, it w uh so the cyber cabs will launch next year, but in Austin in June Those will be model wise. And

8:42 I'm looking to buy another model Y because it will in effect be a cyber cab. And if I chose to, I could have my Model Y drive me to work and then let it out for the day and earn money on it, have it pick me up at the end of the night. And some people will do that. And Tesla will provide the platform for that. I think a lot of people don't realise just how much of the economy is about driving. Yes.

9:10 Taxis, deliveries, all these kinds of things. It's a hu it's is it the single I think it's the single biggest employer in the world. Yes, transportation. Broadly defined. Yes. And and it's not just on the ground, of course. Uh as we've studied uh autonomous taxis uh moving forward We believe the cost of transportation will come down fairly dramatically. So uh in the US today, an Uber costs roughly Two to four dollars per mile. Mm-hmm.

9:42 Um at scale, now this may not be for five to ten years, but this is the direction. That Tesla certainly is headed. Uh, we believe that Tesla will be able to offer a service for twenty-five cents per mile. And Because of that We think there will be much more congestion in the roads. When you cut the price of something, you get more of it. And that led us into the air.

10:08 And so we've been studying studying EVTolls. Um EVTOL. EVTOL is an electric vehicle takeoff and landing. Like a drone type. Yeah. So we own Archer in our portfolio. And of course, AI is a part of this new world as well. Um, and it's a part of the defense world as well, as we are trying to save our soldiers and um and move. out there with autonomous drones. So autonomous uh mobility on

10:43 The ground in the skies, ultimately on the water. So so Tesla. So that's one big we we think that's going to be the biggest In the short term, in terms of revenue generation, the biggest application of AI. We think the most profound application of AI is going to be in health care. Биз АІ, асрінти. Uh

11:10 We are able to diagnose Cancer. With a blood test. In stage one. Think about that. If you discover cancer in stage one, you can save most people.

11:24 Right. And maybe even before stage one. Why? This is the convergence of sequencing technologies, so DNA, RNA, protein sequencing. uh technology. And then the third is uh technology that is breakthrough and already making a difference. is CRISPR gene editing. The convergence of those three technologies is beginning to cure disease. So a company called CRISPR Therapeutics, which is one of the largest in our

12:03 A R K fund. And in the top ten in our ARKK fund. uh has developed А терапі to q

12:14 Sickle cell disease. with and beta thalassemia, both of those are blood related diseases. With one treatment. Think about that. Now the preconditioning for that is gruesome. It's it's uh it involves it's almost like chemotherapy, uh which is going to change, uh, but nonetheless there's huge demand for it because You know, these people go to the emergency room.

12:38 Ten to twenty times per year. For blood transfusions to save their lives. Of course they're going to go through a tough regimen. They want to live a more normal life. Uh so it's already generating revenue. Both both of those are already generating revenue for CRISPR therapeutics and a company called Vertex. So this this Well, there's three or four different companies you've mentioned here, Tesla, the other one was Archer. Archer is the Eve Talk company, yes. And Crisper and Tesla. So if I start with Tesla. You were bullish on Tesla. You were making big predictions about Tesla before pretty much anyone else out there. I think in two thousand fifteen. Mm-hmm.

13:20 And at the time in two thousand fifteen, you said that you believed the stock would get above four thousand, roughly? Right, on the old stock. Yeah, on the before the stock split. And you were right by some significant margin. Um I think you predicted it would be four thousand before the stock stock splits and I think At its peak that equates to about

13:38 Eighteen thousand, maybe twelve thousand. At its peak. Yes. Well we we we were right about Two early years. Or Tesla w got to where we believed it would go two years before most expected. You know, in two thousand eighteen and nineteen.

13:59 Many people as Elon was described. Discussing And describing production hell for the model three. Um many people thought the company would go Bankrupt.

14:11 And uh ан'є That if Elon Musk Куд креат а реузал роке. that could land on a barge. In the water.

14:26 He would be able to figure out How to produce At scale the model three. That was to us a simple Um conclusion. Now as in hindsight, as we're learning from Tesla. Production hell and

14:41 They themselves were worried. That's why Elon slept on the floor in the production factory and just became maniacally involved. Which is how he works, uh as uh yes, and now our prediction the stock is I'm not gonna be exactly right on this. Two hundred and seventy, two hundred and eighty uh dollars. Uh our prediction in five years is twenty six hundred. And ninety percent of that valuation comes not from the electric vehicle, but from this robo taxi platform.

15:14 uh The electric car, if you think about it. Is You know, a one shot sale, you know, sell and hope they come back when they're replacing their car. This essentially means that we'll be driving cars that we can

15:31 click a button and then then then it becomes an autonomous taxi. So I go on holiday, I have my my Tesla car at my house. When I go on holiday, the car turns into a taxi and starts chauffeuring people around. It makes me money. But also from the consumer's perspective that are trying to r hail a taxi. At any point I can go on my Tesla app. Press a button. A autonomous car comes to me with no one driving it and it takes me to my destination with no driver at all.

15:55 Um And then the recurring revenue model, I believe, is you subs you subscribe. It probably could it could be a sub you could subscribe to the network or they could uh you know, maybe it could be either or subscription. Or a car if you don't think you're gonna use it that much. So Now when I'm here in the UK and Europe, many people

16:19 Do not believe what What you just said. And and they don't Because your regulators have not allowed FSD. Here. I I

16:31 Somewhere in Europe I think they're beginning to consider it. Maybe even in the UK here they ha are considering it. Um in St Petersburg, Florida, where we're based. Um I can go from my house to anywhere.

16:47 And Flawlessly The car will take me there. Now we still have to sit in the driver's seat for now, but In June. uh or soon thereafter when they turn the system on

17:01 If regulators permit right now we're state by state. I think that's going to change so that we'll have federal regulation so that this can happen a lot faster. One other thing about Tesla, though, in that twenty six hundred uh dollar number We do not include much for humanoid robots. Now I

17:23 This and this is happening faster than we thought. Um And the reason it's happening faster is humanoid robots. They are the convergence of the same three technologies or innovation platforms. As robo taxis.

17:41 Ro robots, robotics. So actuators and so forth getting them to work. Energy storage battery operated. And AI. Mm-hmm.

17:51 So Tesla's way ahead of the game on humanoid robots, and yet we have very little. Now Elon thinks That The humanoid robot business is going to dwarf. The robo taxi business, and we think he's right.

18:07 uh but longer term. So as I mentioned, we expect All in around the world, including China, not just Tesla, but the entire ecosystem, an eight to ten trillion dollar market uh in the next five to ten years for humanoid robots We expect a twenty six trillion dollar

18:29 revenue market. Now that's going to be a little further along. Uh robo taxis will happen faster. But it may not be as distant as we were once thinking. For anyone that doesn't know, humanoid robots are basically robots that we'll have in our home and at work. So these are there was a video that I think um Elon retweeted the other day showing one of the human humanoid robots dancing. Dancing. Was that real? I was like looking at that video thinking, surely that's not real. But he confirmed, I believe, that it was real. Yes.

19:00 Yes. Now w when we went to the cyber cab event Uh there were some humanoid robots dancing there, but they were tethered and they were remotely controlled. Uh now CyberCAB I think was uh a year ago. Yes, maybe. So since then. They've been able to untether them. And uh I do believe that those that dancing rope up Was was um

19:26 not tethered and not remotely controlled. It was quite shocking to see a robot doing that because If a robot can have that dexterity and Mobility. And then you overlay that with the AI technologies that are accelerating rapidly.

19:41 It begs the question. And the question is quite clear, which is What about humans? Yes. Um just to put a finer t uh, you know. Note on this.

19:52 Um Elon will not be satisfied until these robots can thread a needle. So that's where we're going. What does that mean for humans? So you know the history of technology. Is

20:07 That It has been a net. Job creator throughout history. But humanoid robots are getting awfully close to what we do, right? So it's a good question. I I think creativity is a big part of that ingenuity and creativity and

20:24 Yeah, I think there's gonna be uh There are gonna be a lot of new inventions, uh in the future. So let's see what those are. But even today there's something called vibe coding. Have you heard of it? Okay. Mm. Because we've moved into the world of natural language.

20:43 Programming. Means you know a natural language. I know we all know a natural language. Ours is English for the most part, but it could be any language. Um We're going to be able

21:00 To go to Chat GPT. Or t to especially now they just launched, I think last week something called Codex. Replet. uh and anthropic's fantastic for for um programming. And we'll say this is what I'm attempting to do in English language. And I and I've seen demos of this just internally. We we're going to replace some of our software that we're buying from outsiders and customize it for us because

21:29 І донтов анімо. one size fits all. I think there's going to be a lot more customization and personalization and creativity explosion here. You know, it's interesting that this is happening when the demographic profile of the developed world is as it is. Uh we have a very low unemployment rate in the US. I know the unemployment rates in Europe and the UK have been dropping to much lower levels than Wh where they were stuck for years. I remember thinking, wow, double digits Uh

22:03 We have a demographic. Issue. I mean if you If you watch what uh Elon Musk worries about the most. He he worries about the population implosion. Uh because

22:16 Collapse. Collapse in population in the developed world, um, because we're not uh Um We're not producing children above the fertility rate. We're we are setting up for a shrinkage with China is going there, Japan is going there. And so we're going to need

22:37 Productivity. uh mo productivity to help us if we can't find human beings. Uh okay. So you're s so you're saying that the robotics and AI can actually fill the gap. that we lose in terms of productivity because our society's gonna be Like an inverted pyramid, it's gonna be m more um elderly people and less young people. Yes.

22:58 Yes. Yes, absolutely. It's productivity is going to be essential. So as we're looking at real growth ahead. And when you think about real growth. You should be thinking, okay, somebody's benefiting from this. Um and I'm going to set What I I'm gonna set up the number here.

23:20 uh by describing what has happened historically. If you look from Fifteen hundred to nineteen hundred. And you try and figure out what real GDP growth was back then, real economic growth. Um as best as

23:38 Uh, Brett Winton, our chief futurist, in consultation with academics, can determine. It was Roughly zero point six percent per year. And then we had the industrial revolution. Uh we had in the internal combustion engine.

23:57 Telephone electricity. And for the past one hundred and twenty five years, Real GDP growth. has been three percent And

24:08 And most li living standards have gone up over time. Some more than others, I know that's a debate, but most have gone up. If we а звілук форд. Based on the five innovation platforms around which we have centered our research and investing. If we're right, real GDP growth in the next five years could accelerate to seven point three percent.

24:36 And that gives you a sense of Uh the economic ac uh activity wealth generation out there and Wha when we are

24:48 Presenting. to investors we are actually presenting to them Not Only because they're investors. But because

24:57 They have children or grandchildren who need to adapt to this new world and Our mantra in giving away our research, which we do. Is Get on the right side of change. We also do podcasts. Um we we try

25:13 We do a lot of outreach because we think this is a very important moment in time. Seze the moment, grab hold of these new technology. Because that growth rate is more than twice where we've been, and if you are on the right side of change. We think the opportunities are going to be enormous. Uh, investment opportunities and job opportunities. Yeah, I I feel like I've I feel like um

25:41 I feel like I can't figure out what How the displacement rate Meets the Creation rate. So the destruction rate of n of current jobs will meet the creation rate of new jobs because many of these new jobs

25:58 I I guess there's some of them we can't predict yet. I understand that, but even the ones that we can't predict yet would need to be Inherently human i e Need the skills of a human. for them to be occupied by by humans.

26:13 Um, so what category of stuff is that? Like my my girlfriend's a breath work practitioner. She's upstairs now with ten women and she's teaching them breath work. Okay. So she's fine. Yeah. Like'cause they're doing that in person, what whatever. She's fine. Well and maybe she's not if people decide to do it on Chat G P T P T. But but if they want to be with a group Of women. And you know, learn from an expert whom they respect. There's as much the social experience that's going to become more important. Relationships are going to become more important. Many people in our business

26:49 I think are going to be out of jobs because The business has become Really. Nothing. I I shouldn't be this disrespectful and it's n not quite right, but uh at all. Uh but

27:02 You know, so many are just hugging benchmarks. Uh whether it's S P five hundred or MSCI world. Or the NASDAQ. That a machine can do that.

27:14 A machine can do that easily and that is what passive investing is, is machines doing it. I think in order to earn a place in the new world. You've got to add a lot of value, more value than a machine can. So in our case, we're saying Okay, well our stocks are not in those benchmarks. and therefore

27:37 You know, there they we are doing original research trying to figure out who they are and where they are these these companies That are going to transform the world. Why can't AI replace what you're doing in terms of And we think about that all the time. So AI Can

27:57 use pattern recognition it's all based on history, right? Uh it can use pattern recognition, maybe. What are the three characteristics that define an innovation platform for us.

28:14 The most important one Is they follow something called rights law, which measures the learning curve how fast the costs are going to decline. with this new technology. Technology is deflationary. Costs fall over time. And they're passed through into lower prices or better performance, one or the other.

28:35 Um That is the most important. A machine can figure that out, I'm sure. But asking the questions Yeah, are going to be important. Like

28:46 There h wasn't before two thousand fourteen when we started ARC. Much on autonomous mobility. Or Eve Tolls. Or for that matter, AI. AI had become science fiction. There weren't any breakthroughs in recent years. But then we got some breakthroughs. So could so

29:07 Rights law is the first figure out that cost curve decline and and see how quickly the technology can prolificate uh proliferate across sectors. That's the other criteria c criterion here. The technology That We are following

29:23 Are going to cut across economic sectors and apply Uh. to more than one group of people. And then the third Is that

29:34 these technologies serve as launching pads for new technologies. So in the case of DNA sequencing, which was the base technology. We needed That Before Crispergin editing.

29:50 uh could be created. We needed to be able To understand What was mutating in the genome, where the programming errors were, so that Gene editing could come in and edit out those programming errors.

30:06 And do you think in five, ten years from now that um unemployment is gonna be higher or lower? In five or ten years. Um Let's let's assume we don't have a policy mistake and and a recession. So just just steady state. I think

30:23 It will be The same or lower. And most of this is because those baby boomers are retiring. Uh the employment. and uh and the generations following them.

30:39 Are smaller even now what's happening is uh we're we're passing through the baby boom echo meaning the children of the baby boom That cohort Was I don't think it was any bigger than the baby boom, uh the baby boom population. Do you think there's because of the speed of

31:00 And the acceleration of AI. The Like just The length of careers. has radically reduced. Cause you would go to sch like you would go to school, then you go to university, you qualify as I know an accountant, and that's like a ten, fifteen year process. You get a job as an accountant, you start working your way up. But now with AI coming in, these some of these jobs are being

31:21 Completely annihilated. V extremely quickly. At the same time vibe coding. Yeah. Is Booming. So I think what's going to happen, and this will be very healthy for productivity, we're going to have a lot more experimentation and people taking risks on themselves. And maybe this idea of a corporation as we know it.

31:44 is going to change radically no crypto Is enabling distributed autonomous organizations Just like bitcoin There's

31:54 There's no N no one governing it. Right? N uh the it's a distributed network. And

32:04 You know, let's see how these do and how vibe cob coding And AI integrate into the crypto I and I'm gonna stop calling it crypto because it's really should be called digital assets world, which legitimizes it more. Crypto sounds nefarious. Digital assets is where You know, more than uh y young people and I I'll say Young people are spending more than half of their discretionary their free time online.

32:35 And so property ownership online is becoming more important. It's it's being legitimized by the way people are spending their time. On this point of robotics and AI, your your biggest position, I believe, is Tesla, isn't it, in your fund? Yes. Um But obviously Elon decided that he wanted to go into politics. Oh, Elon.

32:56 The Department of Government efficiency called Doge. So teaming up with Trump to try and eliminate government waste. Now as an investor, You must. Not love that. Well the I I have two Um

33:10 I have 'cause it did impact the performance of the company. Do you know I have I drive a Tester when I go to America. And it was the first time ever on the last trip to America in January. I live in LA now. Um where I'm driving my you know, s my cyber truck. It's the full self driving, it's incredible. But it's the first time ever I thought Shy like I could be attacked?

33:31 So I probably shouldn't get a cyber truck. I should probably get something else, because I had of all these reports of people being attacked. And so it was quite interesting to hear in the earnings report, which I listened to. that there's been this decline in revenue, um in profitability. In vehicle sales, growth, et cetera, in Q one of this year, which I think even Elon in that in that earnings call highlights is a consequence. Of him becoming political.

33:54 Yes, uh I think that surprised him. Um so I have many thoughts about this. Our government has become so bloated. It is scary. And uh our indebtedness is growing.

34:10 If we want to remain the reserve currency of the world. We're at risk of y of losing it and and on our tail is the whole Digital asset world, right? So Um

34:24 Government spending is taxation. It's either taxation that's going to happen immediately. Or will happen in the future. Or will happen through inflation, which is the most regressive tax at all. So I think his

34:40 the the the sentiment was r was right in terms of s you know getting in there And seeing what technology can do for the government, which is really what's happening. I'm watching it in the FDA. How they're starting to use AI It's phenomenal what's happening.

34:55 Yeah. Uh so The question I usually get so I I'm very happy. That

35:02 Ha half of the solution is understanding the problem that someone is in there. With that focus and determination, he of course has said he's stepping away. this month, uh as a matter of fact, to spend more time with his companies. Which you must be happy about. Well of course I'm happy about it, but I I have With the exception of this political dynamic, I don't think That

35:28 Elon. На дай тай базис. is what has caused the problem in the first quarter. It was much more macro. We had a negative quarter in real GDP growth in the first quarter.

35:42 So macro Which is hitting everyone. And the overlay of this political dynamic. The news cycle, thank goodness, moves fast and so we'll we'll be through that, I think. And by the way, there are news reports even this weekend saying Those

36:00 Who were feeling about him? You know As it relates to Doge and you know, one party. Are having a change of heart because

36:10 Tax rates are gonna come down. Because We're being more disciplined on the on the government spending side. Elon's

36:19 Way. Uh managing his companies. is to attract The best and the brightest not only scientists, engineers.

36:31 But also business people. They these are people who want to solve the hardest problems in the world. Um He sets a timeline. That seems

36:42 uh reasonable to him. For milestones to occur. And He doesn't interfere. Unless they start missing those milestones or the timing of those milestones.

36:55 Then he gets involved. And that's where you hear he'll go in and he'll just fire people wholesale and you know And and you know, get the program going again. And he's he's done that

37:08 Certain at Tesla. He's done that out all of his companies. And so he's really Troubleshooter in chief. Once he understands and has set a strategy. He then becomes troubleshooter in chief. Have you met him?

37:21 Oh yes, we did actually our f uh first podcast with him was in two thousand nineteen. Oh I saw that. During during Production Hell. Yeah. And uh We were so happy. So As you know, we have a social strategy, so we push our research out through social media as we give it away, or as we're evolving it.

37:42 And uh He Liked A piece of research that Tasha Keeney had put out on Autonomous back then. And I was on a phone call I couldn't get off, but I heard this whooping and screaming through the office, and I

37:59 I I thought it sounded good. It wasn't an emergency, so I I didn't have to leave that call. But I got out. I said, What happened? Elon I said, Okay. Ask him if we can do a podcast. Mm-hmm. And we were there the next week. Oh incredible. Yeah.

38:13 What do you think of him as a entrepreneur? I think he's the Thomas Ed Edison of our age in terms of uh In terms of his Um in innovative ingenuity.

38:27 And I also think having met him a number of times that I think he's a very good person. He wants to do the right thing. If I had to say one thing, he wants to do the right thing. to Transform

38:43 The lot. Of most of Humanity And he started uh

38:49 Вид Тес, Спайсекс і Тесла, спи Тесла. You know, it was a a an environmental move. Which I think a lot of people attacking his cars who are probably very um Supportive of the environmental movement.

39:06 uh they they've forgotten. Sending Uh uh. A rocket to Mars and with humanoid robots and ultimately people. Um he thinks will transform

39:19 life on earth as well, because as we've learned from space history. Uh what we learn about material science and Technology that help us break through into these very difficult problems to solve.

39:37 Is going to help Us here on earth as well. Uh so I think he's a very good person and wants to do the right thing. Th if I had to describe him That's what I say. Uh other than genius of our time.

39:51 I often wonder, you know,'cause he's had such a profound impact on the world in many, many ways through the companies he started. I think the uh the biggest risk really is just his own his own health. Doesn't seem to sleep much. You know though he he says that he does sleep. I think he he he he recommends, I think, if I'm right on this, getting seven hours sleep uh a night. Uh uh and

40:13 Yes, but when When he is Focused. Uh you know it. I mean people even

40:21 Look. The the There were many pictures of him. Whether it was standing, you know, with other policy makers. And then he zones into something and you know he's zoned in and thinking about only that and a problem that he wants to solve. So You've invested what, just over two billion in Tesla?

40:41 Let's see. So it w would be Roughly, yes. In that region. Bitcoin. Mm-hmm.

40:49 You invested in Bitcoin very, very early. What was the the first price w that you bought? Bitcoin for in I think it was two thousand fifteen. Yes, I it was in um the summer of two thousand fifteen Uh, we got in at roughly two hundred and fifty dollars. Uh, today it's a hundred and four thousand dollars, I think, roughly. So we did get in very early.

41:13 And we knew we were on to something. really when people were making fun of us saying, Okay, that's a marketing trick. You're you're new to our business and you know, new to our to the new fund world and uh you're trying to attract attention. And we were thinking, wow, they have no idea how much research we've done on this And Art Laugher Uh my professor again from USC We had him

41:40 Uh. We had him read. our first white paper on bitcoin. Bitcoin. Could it serve

41:47 The three rolls of money. So means of exchange what we use every day uh to to buy things store of value Uh like gold.

42:00 And unit of account would prices be quoted in terms of Bitcoin. Chris Bernski was our first analyst on Bitcoin. Wrote the paper. Art Reddit.

42:12 And you know, f a added to it. enormously in terms of economic theory, which was great for us. And then he said to us, he said This is what I've been waiting for. Since the US closed the gold window.

42:27 In nineteen seventy one. A rules based Global monetary system. Like Bretton Woods.

42:37 under the gold exchange standard. And I said, Art, that's a very big idea. How big is it? And he said, Well how big is the the monetary base of the US? Back then it was four and a half trillion.

42:53 And Bitcoin's market cap or network value was Сибилін And I said. Okay, that's a very big idea.

43:03 And we were trying to get it into our portfolios. Regulators were hesitant and uh but I bought it right then. for for myself and haven't sold it and I'm very Happy with it. You bought it for yourself personally. Personally, because we couldn't buy it. Two hundred and fifty dollars.

43:21 So we couldn't buy it. back then, but we finally got through the regulatory process. And we were able to put the New York Stock Exchange said, Okay, you can put a one percent position in the portfolio. And it was of a grant or trust called GBTC. So we did.

43:40 And we just never sold it. They didn't tell us we had to keep it at se at one percent. So Oh it's risen to be more than It ballooned. And what is it about Bitcoin that you believe Was and is still

43:54 A a good investment opportunity for the average person. Yes. So At this at this price it's about a two trillion dollar

44:05 uh market cap. And so halfway to that original four and a half trillion. But our price target actually has expanded since then. Um Because it's not

44:18 just a global monetary system. It is A new asset class. And that's a very big idea as well. What makes a new asset class, and we haven't had one.

44:32 Truly. Since uh equities in the sixteen hundreds. When you say a new asset class, you mean a completely new Category of funding companies, yes. Right.

44:44 So an asset class would be something like technology is an asset class, right? No, it would be like Stocks. Bon. Commodities real estate

44:54 This is a new asset class, and m most people Will agree with that. We we did a study on it. If this asset does not perform like other assets. In other words, it provides diversification for funds. And

45:12 Because It is behaving differently, and Institutions have to consider it. Uh because they're competing against each other. And if one puts it in

45:24 They all know they're competing against each other. So Others have to consider it. And We believe that part of the opportunity has not been tapped. And just to put some numbers on this.

45:38 right now We're approaching twenty million bitcoin outstanding. Which means The number of bitcoin that ha uh been minted.

45:50 Over time. uh by bitcoin miners. So there's twenty one million in total, right? There will be at the End of the minting process twenty one million. So we have only one million to go.

46:06 Yeah. Uh one million would be What is that? That would be a hundred

46:14 billion dollars worth, a little more than that right now. So just for someone that might not know much about Bitcoin, Bitcoin is mind using computers. And so far they've mined twenty million of them and there's one million of them left to mine. Mm-hmm. Yeah. So Institutions

46:30 Really just started considering Bitcoin because the SEC gave the gr uh the the green light Uh Two. Bitcoin.

46:40 with uh the the approval of the spot bitcoin ETF in January of last year. And it takes a while for institutions to do their research and and commit. Uh and so they're just now committing, and there's only a hundred billion dollars. Of New.

47:00 Mar market cap. uh that is going to be created Whereas they have trillions of dollars under management. Um

47:12 And so We think there will be a lot of incremental demand. And Uh satisfy A lot of that demand someone's going to have to sell.

47:23 Which means the price goes up. Which, yeah, if people don't want to sell. Because bitcoin's been awfully good. And our forecast right now it's um Right now the bitcoins around a hundred, a hundred and five thousand.

47:38 Our forecast Uh for twenty thirty. is one point five milyen dollars And we do that, uh uh the building blocks for that, the three biggest building blocks.

47:54 Uh Institutional, which has barely started. Uh Store of value or digital gold young people. are much more

48:05 Uh Comfortable. with Digital gold then. Gold.

48:13 Institutions, investment institutions start investing in it. Young people start investing it in it as a way to s save and store their money. Yes. Yes. And then Uh the But

48:25 Mm. The the very important use case that many people do not discuss Is how important Bitcoin and stable coins, which are backed by US treasuries.

48:38 are going to become to the emerging markets. Uh in emerging markets Many of them are at the whim of policy makers Who uh show no discipline in fiscal or monetary policy. And so they they're used to going through booms and busts and booms and bailed out by the IMF.

49:00 And They need an insurance policy. So if you're in Venezuela, you need a currency that's gonna be Exactly. Well this Bitcoin is

49:10 Uh so stable coins are stable vis a vis. uh the dollar. Uh Bitcoin is more of an investment because

49:21 It does appreciate overtime. Now you go through it's volatile, no question, and that's the first thing people have to know about it. But it is becoming less volatile as more and more Investors hold it. So you think Bitcoin will potentially

49:39 Multiplying value by fifteen times in the next five years. Wow, that'd be pretty crazy. It's a very big idea because it is a new asset class. It does represent a global monetary system unlike any other digital asset out there.

49:57 Um it is backed by the largest computer network in the world. the the layer one which is the base layer has not been hacked Think about that since two tausenain, when it was released. Not been hacked. How many

50:14 H how many systems can say that? And it is a technology. It is native. to the internet. And again.

50:25 Digital assets or any Bitcoin Ether Solana. All of them exist because they're vying to be the native currencies to the internet. And to to enable smart contract.

50:42 and really transform the f financial services industry. Why did you invest in Queenbase? Coinbase is um an exchange For

50:55 For digital assets. And uh increasingly derivatives. It has Ще. It just bought Derabit, which is the largest options

51:09 uh exchange out there. uh and it owns a futures so it's really w going after Uh The derivatives market where there's a huge amount of activity, which is fantastic because it's all legitimizing digital assets. And it is the most regulatory compliant exchange in the world.

51:31 Um Binance is another major exchange, but has had more run ins with regulators around the world and really hasn't been allowed into the United States. It also wants to become Yeah. part of the new payment infrastructure.

51:49 And so is evolving strategies that way as well. Um we've gotten to know management very well. They fought the fight against regulators. In a magnificent way. And they have educated policy makers, um, importantly, who understand That this innovation, we almost lost this innovation to the rest of the world because of our regulatory stance. Uh, they've helped r policy makers understand that, hey.

52:19 Інодис пас інфраструкту і What developers did not build in to the internet. In the early nineties, because they didn't know finance or commerce would take place. That's all this is. It's that simple, right? So if I'm trying to invest in just to summarise then, if I'm trying to invest in AI, the your key positions there and your key thoughts are companies like Tesla, I heard you invest in Twilio. Uh we we had invested in Twilio. They had a m uh they had a management turnover, so we moved away from that but uh Palantir. Yes, Palantir is a platform as a service company which we think

52:59 uh is not only going to help governance move governments move into the digital age, like our defense department and now it's moving into other departments, but also these huge, huge enterprises, because it's not forcing them to rip and replace anything. They'll build on top of whatever technology infrastructure is there and over time just usurp usurp the role of the legacy technologies. So very important company we think in uh the digital age. It's had a very big run. We have taken profits and Yeah, while it was having a big run NVIDIA. was selling off. It was down more than fifty percent. So we put some of our Palantir proceeds in uh back into NVIDIA. Is there anything else in the AI bucket? When you're thinking about it.

53:49 Stocks. Well when you're thinking about Uh Chip companies in particular. Uh

53:57 TSM is the platform. for chip manufacturing. It doesn't matter who wins. We we do think there are going to be m many more competitors to NVIDIA. NVIDIA still number one. Have you heard about Grok? Oh yes. Groc we are invested in in our um In our private fund.

54:19 Oh okay, so I'm w just for people that might be confused. Do you mean Gruck with a Q. Oh yes, that's that's in our private fund. We own we do own GROC. And that's a very important company on the inference side. Uh um Of the equation. I've invested in Grok as well. Yeah. Well, I think I think you're gonna do very well. Um So

54:41 T S M though. is where all the chip manufacturers go. For production із most sophisticated manufacture of chips. uh in the world. There is geopolitical risk there. Most of its business is in Taiwan.

54:56 It is diversifying into uh Certainly into the US and I think even into Europe. Uh so I think uh that will continue to be a very important company as well. So what are the what are your what's your top ten?

55:11 In terms of public stocks that anybody can invest in. If you had to give me your top ten. So I'd have to give you uh and they're listed on our website and I won't go in order, I'm sure, but Of course, Tesla. Coinbase Uh Robin Hood.

55:28 Uh Roku is uh An operating system for connected TVs, v highly misunderstood stock. CRISPR therapeutics, which uh is the G gene editing. Gene editing for sickle cell disease and uh beta thalassemia. Uh Palantir, I think I've mentioned uh in the AI software space. Archer just moved into the top ten.

55:56 It's the Evi Tall company, which and it also signed a deal. An exclusive deal on both sides, which was quite impressive, uh with Andorl, which Anderl, which is the Um Мо софтикати дефенс. Tech play.

56:12 Uh and is growing like gangbusters. So so that's terrific. Shopify. uh which is a shopping platform back end and r really using uh AI.

56:27 Roblox? Oh, that's the one we're missing. Roblox. Robux. Which is a game, right? Yes, it's a user generated gaming company. Uh the fascinating th and it's also a social platform. Uh it started uh for children younger than thirteen years old.

56:45 And what's interesting about it is Uh they've stayed with it because sixty percent of its user base now is above thirteen. Which is very interesting. It's the largest user generated uh um Content.

57:02 And what is fascinating about it is I know one of And my friend's daughter has started her own dress shop on roadblocks, and what she doesn't understand is that she's c she's learning about business, but she's also learning how to code, especially in this new vibe coding world. So I think it's gonna be a very important uh company going forward. The the interesting thing about gaming

57:29 and technology transitions. is that it is the only entertainment media Medium. That has Not

57:39 Fallen apart with technology transitions. Um it has actually grown. Because those who love their games from twenty five years ago, still play them. It's grown with each technology revolution. So uh and user generated content in gaming is

58:00 Um The next big thing. A business is only as good as the people inside it. So how do you make sure you're hiring the best? Our sponsor LinkedIn can help you find these applicants quickly. I believe in taking time to hire slowly, but I also understand that That once you've decided to hire, you want to get the ball rolling and get the best candidates in front of you to start interviewing. And that's where paying to promote your role on LinkedIn makes all the difference because you'll get applicants seven times faster than if you post your job for free. And even though slower, more considered hiring is important, you never want your hiring platforms to be what's holding you back. LinkedIn pace. It takes care of the heavy lifting, sending you highly skilled candidates that you wouldn't find anywhere else. So when the time comes to make your next hire,

58:45 Make it count and promote your job on LinkedIn. Head to LinkedIn.com slash D Oac. That's LinkedIn.com slash D Oac and terms and conditions apply. Make sure you keep what I'm about to say to yourself. I'm inviting ten thousand of you to come even deeper into the diary of a sea. Welcome to my inner circle. This is a brand new private community that I'm launching to the world. We have so many incredible things that happen that you are never shown. We have the briefs that are on my iPad when I'm recording the conversation. We have clips we've never released. We have behind the scenes conversations with the guests. And also the episodes that we've never ever released. And so much More In the circle, you'll have direct access to me. You can tell us what you want this show to be, who you want us to interview, and the types of conversations you would love us to have.

59:31 But remember for now we're only inviting the first ten thousand people that joined before it closes. So if you want to join our private closed community, head to the link in the description below or go to DOACCircle dot com. I will speak to you then. If you had a thousand dollars to invest, And you had to invest it somewhere. Where would you be investing it?

59:56 Well and how would you beat like the general philosophy? towards wealth creation at such a stage. If you had a thousand dollars, how would you be thinking about Creating wealth for yourself. A couple of things.

1:00:09 Averaging into Um Either And ETF. ETF, Exchange Traded Fund. So it treats a group of stocks.

1:00:23 Like one stock. Mm-hmm. So ARK K Is It's near it's thirty five thirty six stocks. But you can buy them.

1:00:36 by purchasing A R K K. And you can do that on your mobile phone by down. You can do it on your mobile phone a bunch of different apps that allow you to just buy that one ETF, which means you're in thirty five stocks. Yes. And and your team are basically choosing what those thirty five stocks are. Yes. Based on your research.

1:00:53 Right, and ARKK are our our highest conviction stocks Uh and they they offer an exposure to all of the innovation platforms that we've talked about. Whereas ARK I here in Europe is focused

1:01:10 Primarily on artificial intelligence and robotics. Because we think that convergence is gonna be pretty explosive. What you don't get there Uh and you do get in

1:01:24 Air K We also have another Very focused fund, A R K Which is really health care applications of AI.

1:01:34 Um and another health care. other healthcare names that we think Uh are going to be pretty transformative in the new world as regulators really understand how important AI is going to become

1:01:49 uh research, trials, development uh to diagnostic tests and to curing disease. Another question popped up, which is about Ethereum and these other cryptocurrencies. Do you invest in any of these these others? Yes, we have uh we have pr well, e in our public funds, we've put them I I don't think we can own them here in the UK yet, but in the in the US, uh we have them in um Some of our funds, both of them.

1:02:19 They're key to the financial services re revolution. So to get people to understand and feel comfortable with that. We don't call it the crypto революцію. The financial internet. Okay, so that so we do. We do and do you believe are you more bullish on the price potential of Bitcoin than Ethereum? Yes, we think bitcoin is the biggest idea. It serves the three three revolutions.

1:02:51 global monetary system, they do not. Um New asset class, they are part of a new asset class, but Bitcoin's gonna be the biggest. And new technology, it's the most secure. uh blockchain technology out there. So ether and Solana. So the big three are the are are the those are the the big three.

1:03:14 Um and we think they'll All be successful, all three of them. Bitcoin the most. We're very interested in stable coins, but that's just like cash. Uh and

1:03:24 You know, there are millions of crypto assets out there. We think most of them die. Is there any way to invest in Stable coins. Like how do you invest in in the So indirectly right now it is through Coinbase they have a deal with Circle. Um any any revenue that Circle generates it's it's it's stablecoin is US

1:03:47 DC. Yeah. Any revenue they split fifty fifty. Uh in the US. Uh circle itself has announced that it is going public. And so we're looking forward to that.

1:03:59 And what's what's the the sort of psychology or mentality one has to adopt to be a good investor? Depends what you've bought. If you buy A strategy like ours, which would be in the aggressive growth strategy. Could it

1:04:14 Yeah, you know, averaging in Over time, just like with Bitcoin, as I mentioned earlier. Uh averaging in over time. You know, buy a little Every month, so maybe every payday.

1:04:29 I think one of my daughters was buying bitcoin every week, but not A bitcoin, she couldn't do that. A Satoshi, you know, so And Close your eyes. You're this is a long term investment, if we're right.

1:04:44 Uh According to our analysis. Now you this is our research, our analysis, no promises. We can't do that. But According to our research, the technologies around which we have centered our research. And which have focused our investments. They we believe

1:05:05 Wow at more than tenfold in the next five to ten years. And that's how much explosive growth we have ahead of us. As these technology converge.

1:05:19 and create incredible opportunities for investors. And you know, I'm hearing a lot of invest a lot of people Um As they get into investing, of course, they have their day jobs. But once they have accrued enough

1:05:37 You know, they're making choices about dialing down their day jobs and spending more time investing. You asked, what are some of the jobs of the future going to be? I think individual investors are going to be providing for themselves. If they are investing on the right side of change. So if you're right, that means that by investing your fund I would make a thousand percent return, roughly. Yes, no promises, but this is all based on research, and you can find it in our big ideas.

1:06:05 Uh big ideas twenty twenty five is on our website, uh arc dashinvest.com. Ah, and you can find a lot more uh information about Ar funds on Arc Dash Funds. uh dot com.

1:06:23 I should probably say this is not In investing advice. Do your own research. Yes. But that's why we put Arc dash invest separate from the fund site because that's just research. Learn. Learn what you're investing in, or learn why we've invested. Uh the the way we have

1:06:47 You know, that's that's what we do. All day long is we try and help. Well, first of all, we're doing the research. We are making the investment, but I think one of the most important things we do Is

1:07:00 Communicate. what we're doing and why we're doing it. What do you think of the Trump. Tariffs.

1:07:08 Everything that's going on in America at the moment. You know, for the average person, should they be concerned? Are you bullish you think Trump's got it right? If you look at what happened to the equity market when Trump was elected. The stock market. Yes, the stock market. It went crazy to the upside, as did our strategy.

1:07:27 And Why? The promise was Deregulation And that I think is underestimated.

1:07:35 uh how important it is because we're strangling in regulation. It's just this is not our DNA. We've we've got to get out from under this. Lower taxes L lower interest rates is what he wants, of course. Um And

1:07:52 Lower tariffs. What he didn't tell us was exactly how he was going to go about that process. And It has It has felt chaotic.

1:08:06 And I've had to go out and explain what's going on, try to explain. What's going on? And Uh I have to tell you, it it scared me

1:08:19 silly to see what was going on because I knew that businesses We're paralyzed. А мес о. And I certainly can communicated through my channels. Art communicated through his channels in fact.

1:08:37 I think in one publication he said that I have never been more scared in my career. We were trying to really Get into Trump's head.

1:08:49 And and I know President Trump listens to art, but he also listens to a lot of other people. One of whom was Peter Navarro. У семь то A hold.

1:09:00 on Trump had when it came to tariffs. And yet When I saw Treasury Secretary Bessant really push aside Navarro. And that could only happen with Trump.

1:09:12 I knew we were gonna be okay. Аню вирога би окей, каз трут all of this chaos. I think what he is trying to do. Is not only get Tariffs.

1:09:25 On the US down. Throughout the world. But maybe more important get. non tarif trade barriers down. Like for example

1:09:36 Yeah. I didn't even know the UK would not accept our b. Or ethanol. Well Now you're accepting our beef and ethanol. I

1:09:45 I don't know if I don't know if people in the supermarkets will buy it, but uh anyway. This one, but other countries, much, many, many more non tariff trade barriers. And so he is just trying to Bust that up. You know, make it more visible. You know, for example, Canada, I think they charged

1:10:07 A two hundred and fifty percent tariff on our milk. And one of President Trump's promises was to take care of the farmers. Okay. That's why you see the rhetoric around Canada.

1:10:21 Now do I agree with his style? I would never do it that way. I'd never do it that way. I and it was unfathomable, you know, for me, because he is sensitive to business. And he must have known that everything was gonna stop.

1:10:38 And uh But he also Knows that he has to sound Crazy. for other people to take him seriously, and he has and people have to believe he will do crazy things.

1:10:51 In other for people to take him seriously, and he does do crazy things. So do you think it's gonna work out? I do. And I think the stock market is beginning to smell it. If I if I just had to invest in one stock right now, what stock would you recommend I invest it in?

1:11:07 Okay, well I have to give you our pick. So it would be Tesla. It would be Tesla if I if I had to give you one stock. Okay. Interesting. Because think about it. і конвержен

1:11:20 Among three of our major platforms, so robot robots, energy storage, AI. And it's not stopping with robo taxis. There's a story beyond that with humanoid robots. And our twenty six hundred dollar number. Has nothing for h humanoid robots. We just thought it'd be an investment period and you know the re But I think he's going to start generating not only productivity gains internally.

1:11:48 Ба ревеню From humanoid robot. What are you concerned about? In terms of The way that the world is going and everything that's happening. What are the things that keep you up at night? I've got many a concern, so

1:12:00 Got many unanswered questions and worries about how things might play out, but keen to hear yours. I am such an optimist. I really do have to dig down deeply. I if you had asked me this a few weeks ago, I would have said, you know, uh this tariff situation is gonna blow the global economy up if we're if we're not careful. So I'm much more settled about that right now. Автасай, ам концерн. That there are going to be people caught out. Um

1:12:32 By these new technologies and for whatever reason not willing to adapt, because there are gonna be huge opportunities if they do. And so one of the reasons we give away our research. Yeah, I'm Very honored to do a podcast like this is to get that word out.

1:12:52 There is so much information available. You can just go to our site and listen to our podcasts and And if anything inspires you Go for it because It's Кой, оpportunтизжай бирмас.

1:13:08 When you say you're concerned people might get caught out. caught out in d d you know disrupted industries. I mean we think the whole transportation industry is going to be disrupted. Um

1:13:21 We think retail as we know it. going to be disrupted as we're tellers in like shops and stuff and Yes, although if they adapt with more social personal experiences, I think that anything physical, you'll want to have a social dynamic associated with it. But in terms of uh what I think is going to happen to retail. Is We're going to have our personal shopping assistants

1:13:47 And they're going to You're gonna anticipate what we want, which I can't wait. I hate shopping. Anticipate what we want. uh or basically flag something that they know we would like if we would knew it were available, and they'll be disintermediating all of the traditional sources because they can go anywhere in the world. Um so just think about almost every sector is going to be disrupted. Healthcare is going to be disrupted enormously, I think.

1:14:18 For the better. For the better? But those who are wedded to doing things the old way and Are probably going to be disrupted, you know? Yeah, that is my concern as well.

1:14:31 And and just how we handle that as a society. If we can Help. People understand. That they have a lot of control over this.

1:14:43 If they're willing to learn, And dream. And use their imaginations. Not everybody is though, as you know. But they have to do it for their children at least, right? We took the general population in a London and said Hundred people, how many of you understand what AI is? Or n how many of you use chat GBT? We'd have a certain percentage, maybe I don't know, fifty percent or more. If I went to

1:15:04 The countryside. Yes. And I stopped a lovely person shopping at in the local village and said, Do use chat G V T. It'd probably be significantly lower percentage. They be they they wouldn't care about that, what is that, whatever.

1:15:19 Um, I I w wonder about the inequality of like education, but just initiative and how those that really do have a pro proclivity to lean in. And to experiment and to mess around and to learn. Because maybe there's an incentive because they work in a city and their employees asking them to. or be off to the races with this disruptive technology. And there's just like a lot of the

1:15:41 rest of society of Middle America and the countrysides and those types of people. H I just not even gonna see it coming. But that's why we're out there. And the the important word that you used was initiative, because I really think You know, when people hear the word inequality

1:16:00 Uh They like to blame something, right? There will be no reason for this. Uh I'm sure someone's gonna come back at me for saying that, but I um of course there are people who who we have to help along the way, no question about it. But for those who are healthy and

1:16:18 And uh Are listening. To this podcast. And are saying. Uh, you know, I don't I don't know exactly what she's talking about, but I'm gonna start reading up on some of these.

1:16:31 New ways of doing things and make sure to w at least understand it. I think within that kind of initiative they'll find it. They just will find it. There's gonna be so much opportunity. It's gonna be so exciting, and I think

1:16:48 Again, creativity. And uh you know, especially young people using their imaginations, you know, they're they're not held back by any preconceived notion. So I ask all the questions I ask because I'm trying to like solve little question marks I have in my head about the future. And it's really difficult at this time to see around the corner because so much is changing so quickly and there's all of these converging technologies as you describe, like robotics and AI, and then when I put robotics and AI together I go fuck. I keep coming back to this question of like what am I gonna do? And not in I'm just gonna do it. No that will motivate you. It does. Of course it does. It's great. It motivates me to ask people like you the question seventeen times in a row.

1:17:38 But it's a real point, because I run businesses. We have at our headquarters, which is round the corner, it's about twenty five thousand square foot office. We have, you know, hundreds of people in that building. And I'm thinking about the roles that we're hiring for, and I'm we're now looking at them through the lens of a genetic AI AI agents and And then if I overlay that with robotics and AI. You know I'm gonna what roles Would we need to hire in the future because

1:18:03 Theoretically. Like can you name a single role in a media company? Uh Wait. When I'm talking about in the robotics era that would really need to be done by human I guess other than

1:18:14 One could say human to human sales. Will still have some kind of element of human touch to them. You know, though, I mean, we've learned a lot. From the ancient game of go. Yeah.

1:18:28 So You've heard about AlphaGo, which was Uh Alphabet Google. Um

1:18:36 basically devising a program to compete against The go champions go is much more complicated than chess. Yeah, it's like a game a board game, basically. Right. So I think the cr the champion of the world at the time was a South Korean. And he was sure he was gonna beat this misch machine.

1:18:57 Well, the machine be beat him. And he was crestfallen. And Then he got his Hutzpa to use New York word, back.

1:19:09 And He said Wait a minute. I'm gonna start playing against machines. And so now

1:19:19 He's playing against machines. His game is so much better that when he competes against humans, and those competitions are the more important ones. Right. When he competes against Адер хума бінг. The machine has kept him. And his champion, of course, everyone's using the ch so we're all

1:19:40 We're going to Artificial intelligence But he still can't be a machine, can he? He still can't beat the best machine in the world. No, he can't. And but I mean he can occasionally, but But

1:19:51 People don't want to go see machines competing against machines. I get that in Because human humans like human era and they like to be able to relate and to aspire. But as it relates to the world of work, the incentive is productivity. And My m my my r humanoid robot isn't gonna get sick and it's gonna have a PhD in everything. So

1:20:11 I don't wanna see a human failing at their desk. Right, right, right, right, right, right. But then you your your robot and your AI is Really focused on the past, right? That's But it's ingested. They can make predictions though based on that path.

1:20:31 Pattern recognition. Which is how my brain works, right? But That's why we chose the word disruptive. Disruptive means the traditional world order and patterns therefore that you know, the the robots and others will recognize is going To change.

1:20:51 Right. So, what does that mean? Вань винь о ресерч. We have a white sheet of paper. There's no history for this. Right?

1:21:02 And so we're doing a lot of original research. So AI machines might use our research as their cause we put it out there. But how does the AI think differently to y to a human, though, in terms of is I thought the human brain was building You know, predicting Essentially something based on

1:21:19 lots of information. And AI is basically doing the same thing with neural networks. It's making a prediction based on lots of new information. And therefore if we get to AGI it can create new information. Yes. And and And it will, but i I mean, A GI Elon will say it's Two years away. And it does seem You know

1:21:38 We're able to generate PhDs and rocket scientists now, uh, in the AI world. So he's probably right. But I also Think about this as giving us super intelligence so. Could chat do what we've done? Maybe I don't know. Actually it's a very interesting exercise. I'm gonna ask our team to do that before we put it out. Uh to do to do a model

1:22:04 A space model, financial model. Income statement. Balance sheet. Cash flow statement. Between now and twenty fifty, when we have

1:22:15 In twenty in the twenty forties, Elon expects, if not sooner, to colonize Mars. Uh I I'll see what kind of model it comes back with. In terms of how much in terms of how correct it is and what it uses to get there. Yeah I'll do that now. SpaceX.

1:22:34 A financial model. Or income statement. Okay. Income statement. S T three point O. Make a

1:22:45 Space uh you're an investor in SpaceX? Yes. In the private fund, yes. Fair mate. Make a space axe. uh income statement.

1:22:59 income statement based on Elon's predictions? Yes. Steel's predictions. Yeah.

1:23:07 This would be very interesting. Twenty fifty. Mm-hmm. Okay, I'll put that on the screen so everybody can watch. And this is essentially gonna look at everything he said about going to Mars and colonizing Mars.

1:23:20 And then tell you how valuable that company's gonna be. So I'm not sure if you asked the question that way. Did you s Did you say that?

1:23:28 I just said make a space X income statement based on Elon's predictions from now until twenty fifty, and then I can ask it what the market cap would be. I wonder how long it's gonna think. Yeah, it's gonna think a long time, I have a feeling. And then it's gonna take you through and I think uh you know it was interesting deep seek. Uh the breakthrough it had.

1:23:49 On the reasoning side. was it kept asking questions so it could get to the right answer faster. Mm. I think they're all adopting now. Because'cause Deep Seek's open source. Yeah.

1:24:01 And they didn't need to spend much. As much money on the training side because they're saying they said six million dollars trained on a high end work station and that that of course caused a trillion dollars Worth of the U.S. damage in the US market with NVIDIA. One of the biggest uh

1:24:19 Casualties. Because people said, Well wait a minute. We're doing these data centers. You mean we don't need all those big data center servers to to do this work. We could do a high end workstation for six million dollars.

1:24:34 The answer is the pre training. For that model. was done on a fifty thousand gpu cluster that the hedge fund had. Mm-hmm. And the last step of the large language model.

1:24:48 was the six milyen dollar step. Okay, it's made its mind up now. So it says Starlink Revenue in twenty fifty. would be two hundred and fifty billion. Mm-hmm.

1:25:01 It says launch and starship revenue would be a hundred and twenty billion. So the total revenue would be Three hundred and seventy billion. Cost of goods sold would be one hundred and seventy two billion. Gross profit therefore would be Two hundred billion.

1:25:16 Operating expense thirty seven billion, operating income would be a hundred and sixty one billion. After tax, so the net income would be a hundred and twenty eight billion. All right. And I have to I to be honest, I haven't We haven't that'd be very interesting.

1:25:34 I'd love to get a a copy of that or if you could send it to me. I'll email it to you straight after. You know, when I asked Chat G B T earlier, I said who is the number one Women in the world. In investing, it repeatedly said your name.

1:25:48 Mm. So that's a pretty remarkable thing. to have accomplished. Especially in a male dominated industry. Where there isn't many women that managed to rise to the top of that.

1:25:58 industry. So what is it about you? In hindsight. You know it's difficult to be Objective about oneself.

1:26:06 But what is it about you that meant that you were successful in a male dominated industry? In an industry that's incredibly difficult to be successful in. My advice to all young people getting into their first job especially, but even later jobs is My mission when I started. Was to make my boss look брилєн.

1:26:28 Now Why do I why do I say that? It's much more applicable today and possible today than it was back when there were no computers and no cell phones, which is when I started, right? But what did I do? My boss wanted to communicate, he was an economist. Wanted to communicate in charts that

1:26:49 Yeah, he couldn't find So I figured out a way. I went to our time sharing system. That's all you could do back then. Time sharing is an ancient mainframe technology. And I figured out a way to Make these charts and delight him.

1:27:08 And And I love doing it and I loved learning. I loved learning about technology, I learned tech and about economics. Uh through him. So That was the first thing. And then Why is it important to make your boss look good?

1:27:25 Well, I think Because if you do make him Look good. Um, first of all, you should you owe him a debt of uh of gratitude if he turns around and gives you more gr growth opportunities. So

1:27:41 But if he Or she doesn't. Then you know it's time to go to the next place where you make that next boss look brilliant and maybe you have the growth trajectory. I had bosses who The they love the fact that I love

1:27:56 Yeah. That I had such high conviction in what I was doing, and I and I'm gonna give Art Laugher a lot of credit for that. When I walked into the financial world. I knew more about economics than most of the people in the room. And that was a great source of confidence.

1:28:16 A great source of confidence. And when I was leaving that firm. Uh someone said my my boss at the time said I was moving from LA to New York. My my boss said

1:28:29 You've only been doing this for three years. You're not ready to become their economist and Um And I just thought I was ready, and more important, the f company to which I was going thought I was ready. And w as I was leaving, um Both he and and others said Remember.

1:28:48 You know more about economics than anyone else in the room, you'll so take that with you. And I did, and I think that sense of confidence. And Understanding the way the world works from a macroeconomic uh point of view was critically important. Now when I got to New York I could not even speak Art Laugher Laugher's name because The laugher curve says

1:29:12 If you cut tax rates that are too high. You will get More revenue. And what had happened is Ronald Reagan had cut tax rates.

1:29:23 But Paul Volker at the Fed. was trying to starve the economy of inflation. So we were in back to back recessions, and no the government wasn't getting more revenue, so Art Laugher was You know, on I I couldn't say anything, but You know, that was fine. I I knew he was gonna be right.

1:29:41 And we were right. That was the story of the eighties and nineties. And that's why Uh Jennison Associates And the chief investment officer there, uh, Sig Sigales. Um gave me an opportunity to get into equity research. I wanted to grow. I love the stock market. And

1:30:01 He loved my conviction and so he started me on cyclical companies, which of course I would know a lot about. But Jennison was primarily a tech oriented. Firm and of course Knowing that, I wanted to delight the bus, I wanted to get into the technologies and I made it my business to

1:30:21 Know as much about them and And I was the only one. willing to Uh Research stocks outside the US.

1:30:30 Think about that now. Oh Latha. Arthur Laffer? Yes. He wrote this letter. Oh we did?

1:30:39 He wrote this letter. Describing you. Oh to you? To me. He said there was this young lady named Kathy Duddy.

1:30:49 whose face was the map of Ireland and whose ambition was over the moon. I was a tough teacher and grader And Kathy's first steps were shaky, but in short order she rose to the occasion and aced the course. Impressed as I was And believe me, I was Very impressed.

1:31:03 I helped Kathy land her first job at Capital Group in LA. And from that point in time it was game on. I followed her career closely after Capital Group. Then on to to pillow and her final job as an employee. Uh

1:31:15 Alliance. As you may imagine, she was the star investor at each stage. In two thousand fourteen, Kathy took a giant an entrepreneurial leap in the founding and funding of Arkinvest. To say she's a mega success and God bless her. She never has forgotten her now aged professor.

1:31:37 Well That was very nice of him. Uh So he he has been so important to my crew now. I'm gonna get a little

1:31:47 Weepy, but um I gave him one percent of my company. When I started it. And uh So

1:31:56 He deserved it. He deserved it because he gave me a big big break. He believed in me first. Is that Michael Michel? I don't know. We we have we've gone through our life together and what's so interesting now is Um

1:32:12 It's uh so interesting and and fun is Bitcoin has rejuvenated. Art. Eighty five years old or eighty four. And

1:32:25 I'm seeing his excitement and he wants to spread the word around the world. And now we're going into stablecoins together. And He just started an account on X. He has a flip phone. He doesn't do email, said And yet he has just started an account on X. And so we now have

1:32:47 This technology relationship because he wasn't going to technology, but He knows. Arc all together, we have three point three millim followers, and he's seeing the reach. That X has and he's also I think the other thing and I'm I'm haven't answered your question. It's just very nice of him to do that, you know. And I see it's a Typed one page and very sweet.

1:33:13 We have a closing tradition on this podcast where the last guest leaves a question for the next guest, not knowing who they're leaving it for. And the question left for you is Mm. Great question for you. What is the craest idea? You ever had

1:33:26 That turned out to be right. Well, there are just a a few one thing that it's it's not that crazy, but it just gives you a sense of how not obvious in The early days uh of Arc. I remember saying

1:33:46 I remember saying Well No. Autonomous Vehicles.

1:33:52 Are robots. And I was in a research meeting and I said no, they're not. Of course they are. You know, it's a crazy idea, but and there was something I mean, there are th some things I'll say.

1:34:06 And the reason that's important from Our point of view is this convergence idea. Роботикс, Ай, Енерджі сторож. So wait a minute, this is a very big idea. So it seemed It seems like

1:34:20 No. I think it is. And and so it was uh like we were we were s you know, f feeling our way in the dark,'cause that was two thousand fourteen and Nobody's really talking about them. And there's something like that very recently. Oh we were talking it's not a crazy idea. It's it's just we're trying to solve problems. Um

1:34:41 Yeah. Well, as we were going on and on at our brainstorm on Friday about humanoid robots. Uh someone he he's he's our um what do we call him. What do you call? Curmudgeon. Uh no good way. In a good way.

1:34:58 Contrary or Cromogin like yeah, yeah, yeah, that's not gonna work. You know. Um Humanoid robots, he said I he said I I don't think that's gonna be a thing, he said

1:35:11 We really nід rot. that are going to be able to carry a lot more in terms of weight Then those things will on those stilts. And in my mind kind of flashed. Um

1:35:25 Transformer robot. legs and all of that, you'd be able to fold them up so they look like a tamp tank. And so that's what I said on uh I know this doesn't sound so crazy to you, but uh I don't know I just imagining the future, going to Disneyland when I'm

1:35:43 Eleven years old. uh from Ireland and Seeing someone holding a phone on the carousel for progress and You know, saying I'm gonna have one of those. Um It sounded crazy at the time and

1:35:59 I felt a little crazy, but always So you think we can have transformer robots. Yeah. So The robot that Cleans my house can transform and maybe become a

1:36:10 I think that's gonna happen. Uh another one was And this was on These are just little ideas in in terms of how

1:36:18 Things hit my brain. But Someone's was talking about boring, which is another one of Elon's companies, the underground transportation. Things tunnels and stuff. Yeah. I forget what someone said in

1:36:33 Opposed to on X. But I my answer was Mars. Obviously. And people were laughing at that.

1:36:43 And and then as they were talking about they're saying, Of course they're going to put that transportation system underground. We learned why you shouldn't have it on top of the ground from earth. So just a little thing just catch me in a funny way. It's not the craziest. They're just like Well, maybe that is the way things are gonna work. I wonder if if Philon dies before we get to Mars, or if he just dies in the next ten years from anything, from any cause. How much of an impact that'll have on our rate of progress. Generally with space and electric vehicles and humanoid robots.

1:37:15 Can be quite profound. He is getting us so far along. That You know, there's just going to be a runway he's created for years and years. Think about it, Mars. Two thousand forty, fifty. You know?

1:37:30 Kathy, thank you. Thank you for doing what you do and um That's a a sort of multifaceted point of gratitude because you do so much. Um, you do so much in educating all of us in terms of innovation, investing and what the future looks like, but also from your funds perspective and your company's perspective, you do so much in

1:37:49 open sourcing and putting the research and the work that you guys do out into the world when you don't necessarily have to. But uh as I've heard you say, it's a great benefit both to the world, but also you do it because It also brings people to your fund, right? And um it certainly did for me. That's how I came across you many, many years ago when I had was reading some research with my brother um around investing in the future and innovation. And understanding your thesis around all of those things, but also from the education side, you're distilling this complex research into simple Um

1:38:17 language and information that uh the next generation can understand. So that this moment of transition doesn't catch them off guard. And that's an incredible thing. But I but I have to say as well, You're such an inspiration for the very fact that you have achieved what you've achieved in your life. It's It's exceed it's extremely rare for someone and I I don't always like to talk about gender or race or those those kinds of things, but it's a point of It's a particular point a pertinent point in this case because you have succeeded in a very male dominated industry. And I think just your presence, your existence alone is going to inspire lots of women.

1:38:49 Um and men, people like me. Um to pursue Finance and investing as a career. Mm. So thank you so much for doing what you do and thank you for being who you are. It's incredibly important and you've demystified so many things for me over the years, even though we've never met. Um, but watching your videos and reading the research that you guys put out. So I'm gonna link all of that below.

1:39:08 linked your websites and your funds and all those things so people can learn more. But yeah, thank you. Thank you, Steven. Thank you for doing what you do. And and it's been an honor and a privilege. And I know you have an incredible audience. So you've built a Fantastic business here, and I have a feeling uh that this new world that

1:39:27 That you're fearing is going to be very good to you. I hope so. Yes. Thank you. The hardest conversations are often the ones we avoid. But what if you had the right question to start them with? Every single guest on the driver CO has left behind a question. In this

1:39:46 Diary. And it's a question designed to challenge, to connect, and to go deeper with the next guest. And these are all the questions that I have here. In my hand. On one side you've got the question that was asked. The name of the person who wrote it. And on the other side, if you scan that You can watch the person who came after.

1:40:04 Who answered it. Fifty one questions split across three different levels, the warm up level, the open up level, and the deep level. So you decide how deep the conversation goes. And people play these conversation cards in boardrooms at work, in bedrooms, alone at night. And on first dates. And everywhere in between. I'll put a link to the conversation cards in the description below, and you can get yours at thediary.com.

1:40:28 Quick one, just give me thirty seconds of your time. Two things I wanted to say. The first thing is a huge thank you for listening and tuning into the show week after week. It means the world to all of us, and this really is a dream that we absolutely never had and couldn't have imagined getting to this place. But secondly, it's a dream where we feel like we're only just getting started. And if you enjoy what we do here, please join the twenty four percent of people that listen to this podcast regularly and follow us on this app. Here's a promise I'm gonna make to you. I'm gonna do everything in my power to make this show as good as I can now and into the future. We're gonna deliver the guests that you want me to speak to, and we're gonna continue to keep doing all of the things you love about this show.

1:41:08 Thank you.

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