Bill Gurley - The Gift and The Curse of Staying Private - [Invest Like the Best, EP.427]

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0:25 Operate smarter and stay ahead of the curve. See what Ridgeline can unlock for your firm. Schedule a demo at ridgeline.ai. Hello and welcome, everyone. I'm Patrick O'Shaughnessy, and this is Invest Like the Best. This show is an open ended exploration of markets, ideas, stories, and strategies that will help you better invest both your time and your money. If you enjoy these conversations and want to go deeper, check out Colossus Review, our quarterly publication with in-depth profiles of the people shaping business and investing. You can find Colossus Review along with all of our podcasts at joincolosis.com. Patrick O'Shaughnessy is the CEO of Positive Sun.

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1:29 My guest today is Bill Gurley. Bill was a general partner at Benchmark Capital. He joins me for his sixth time on Invest Like the Best and his most comprehensive market analysis yet, examining the realities, reshaping venture capital. Built tackles the uncomfortable math underlying today's venture returns, with companies staying private for longer. He also walks through by no one, from GPs to LPs to founders, has proper incentives to mark assets accurately, creating a system wide coordination problem.

1:56 And we dig into the investment implications of AI as a platform shift, ranging from evaluating AI revenue quality to international competitive dynamics. Bill offers a crucial perspective on playing the game both as it exists today and as it may evolve. Please enjoy my conversation with Bill Gurley. So Bill, this marks you retaking the crown as the most frequent and best like the best guest, beating our good friend Michael Movison out for the crown. Welcome back. I can't think of anyone I'd rather be neck and neck with on the entire planet. This is also interesting that this is the first one that you and I have done, just the two of us. Since two thousand nineteen, if you can believe that. So time flies.

2:37 Since it's just us, I would love to go very broad. And start the conversation by just talking about the state of things as you see them. I know this is something you used to do in your benchmark days, give a state of the union markets edition I would love for you to do that for us as we enter summer of twenty twenty five with everything that you're seeing out there in the world. I'm excited to do it. Yeah. I used to

2:59 Kick off our LP meeting with a state of VC It's a process and a presentation I'm used to giving. I've been noticing a lot of things recently. That are different. in the world and maybe permanently different about the venture capital world. And a lot of the talks that I would give

3:17 were based on what appeared to be inherent cyclicality in the venture business. And that has been upset or kicked over or a little chaotic recently, which we'll get into. I offer two Qualifications as we dive into this. And Michael would appreciate this. I'm a huge fan of system level thinking.

3:38 There's a book out there on how to think in systems that's pretty cool. And all Michael and I's time at the Santa Fe Institute is basically tied to the theory that systems behave differently than their individual components. And seeing across systems, it's not easy. It's a difficult thing to do, but as we dive in I think a lot of the components of the industry are bouncing into one another and it's the aggregate effect of all those things that's super interesting. And so you have to step back and look at it from far away. And then I also want to qualify up front that

4:13 I offer no judgment on any of their participants. There are people and firms taking action that change the state of the field, and I think they're all act Reasonably and in their best interest. The agrid effect. may not be positive for the world, but I'm not ascribing malintent or anything to anybody, and I want to clarify that up front. So if you'll allow me, I'll start to dive in. I want to walk through

4:41 A handful of market realities as I see them. So in the first part I don't really want to think too much about analysis, but just highlight a bunch of things that if you're in the VC market. And by the way I think What we're going to talk about is important to VCs, it's important to founders, it's important to LPs. Anyone that touches the ecosystem. This is super high level stuff. So let me walk through the realities and then you and I can

5:09 Chat back and forth about some of the interpretations. So the first thing I would just bring up, which people have talked about. So I'm just putting it on the table as one of the key variables, not trying to overanalyze it, which is the continued rise of the mega VC fund. When I first started everything was bespoke. Most of the well branded funds were focused on early stage. They didn't participate in late stage. And the funds were modest compared to today. Today, many of the branded firms, I think, have moved from maybe Five hundred million commitment every three or four years to five billion.

5:45 So ten X and they're participating very actively in what we would call late stage, although I've always thought late stage was a euphemism for big check. There are people willing to put three hundred million in a AI company that's Twelve months old. So that's not late stage. It's just big checks. There's a whole bunch of firms that have moved up market. And then they've also created

6:07 different industry specific funds and things like that, all leading to much more capital under management from many of the brands. And then there's a ton of parties that have entered the late stage market with different approaches. And some of those have always been there. I mean Fidelity and Capital Group have always done a deal or two every once in a while, but I think Patrides, Co, Altimeter, Thrive, who I think is really doing some interesting and differentiated things in the market. They're all super active. And then oh yeah, Massa's back.

6:39 We hadn't heard from him. In a few years, but he's back in out there in the market as well. He's like an indicator all his own. Yeah, yeah. I agree. So there's a lot more money out there. The second reality that

6:53 People talk about that staggering. I think the phrase that's used most where I don't love is zombie unicorn. So if you look at The number of companies That were I always Like to think pre LLM and post LM. 'Cause it it really is of a dividing moment as everyone's gotten excited about this new platform shift.

7:15 There's somewhere around a thousand. So these are a thousand private companies that have raised money. over a billion dollars. And ChatGBD told me it was twelve fifty, NBCA says nine hundred. Let's just say it's near a thousand. Rough Justice a thousand, yeah. Yeah. It seems like they've raised somewhere between two and three hundred million each. And so you roll all that up, it's

7:38 Three hundred billion. N V CA estimates that it's three trillion dollars. Of assets on the books of the LPs. I did some one on one calls with LPs. They've slowly increased. Their Participation and venture.

7:54 From Anywhere from five to seven percent up to ten to fifteen. And then it can be as big as half of their private equity commitment. So VC alongside private equity, some have private equity a lot bigger, but it's gotten bigger and bigger. on their balance sheet. So it's important. There's

8:13 I think a lot of questions about this group of companies. One is what's their correct value. A lot of the marks for their last round was set. back in twenty twenty one. Twenty twenty one or something, yeah.

8:28 Yeah, which is when you had a real market peak that second year of COVID. If you remember all the tech stocks blew up and Zoom blew up at that moment and everyone did really well in that window. So there's a question as to what they're worth. The investment world doesn't seem excited about this group of companies just writ large. They don't have super high growth rates, and I want to talk about why I think that is.

8:54 The thing that most people may not believe, but I guarantee you is true. No one has an incentive to get to Marks right. For those that don't know this world. private investing both on the PE side and the V C side is this weird world where the GPs, the people responsible for the investments report the price to the LPs. They get to pick it.

9:16 Now there's auditors in the background messing around and you'll hear frustrated L Ps some firms will be conservative and price'em low and some high. So they get mixed signals from different people. Different prices on the same asset from different GPs. Yes. But the thing people may not realize is The managers of the VC group at the large endowments have no incentive.

9:40 to try and right size this number. In fact, many of them are bonus on paper marks. So if anything, they have the reverse incentives to get'em right. Don't the founders have the incentive to get these things right, though? Isn't it ultimately better for long term company building that you not operate in some Farsical way. It's a great question. I think there's two things that fight against that. One Every founder I know.

10:07 Has multiplied. their percentage ownership times whatever the highest price their company was ever valued at. And thought about that number is their net worth. Right, but who cares? I mean, it doesn't mean anything. I say that without judgment. I think it's natural. that you would do that, but then taking that number down by seventy percent or whatever.

10:28 Is tough to do. And then the other issue Is Quite frankly, the lick preference. And so this is another technicality, so I'll explain it. For the listeners, but

10:39 The amount of money you raise in aggregate Just the raw number becomes your lip preference and in MA outcomes. the investor can choose to take the lift preference and not convert to common so they can get their money back. And so if a company's raised three hundred million dollars and they're worth two billion, Lickpref doesn't matter that much. If the valuation is now

11:04 Four hundred million. Then the Lick Pref could take seventy five percent of the company in a sale. And it's a real issue out there for people. If we go back to the list of thousand zombie unicorns As you drill into that universe.

11:20 How often do you find companies that are profitable and therefore this problem can just go on forever until they choose to take another mark versus those that are gonna die at some point? That would require they raise and reset the price. Well, I have to admit I haven't done A statistically significant survey, which might be interesting for someone to do. And maybe there's someone at a fund of funds or someone at Pitchbook or someone at

11:46 Carter that might be able to come up with that. I'll tell you It's a lead in to what I think happened. So we were in the middle of a very long zero interest rate period, which I think the acronym ZERP is used now for that window. And that was unprecedented in a hundred years. Zero interest rates for what was it ended up being five, six, seven years, something like that. Yeah, long time. One, it postponed any V C correction, but it just created a ton of money and speculation. And Hm. Funny aside, I got invited, I've only been to see Mr. Buffett once in my entire life, and it was a group of twenty people and it was tied to a fundraiser, but we got one question each, and I said to Warren, I said, You know your DCF doesn't work if the entry rates are zero.

12:32 So I said all it does is create a lot of speculation. And he said, You betcha. So that was it. Russia greatness. But anyway. There was a lot of speculation. That amount of money that I mentioned, two hundred seventy five, anywhere two hundred to three hundred, unprecedented prior to that window that companies would raise that much money. And when they raise that much money, a couple of things happen. I think you end up with too many participants in a single field where you would have had whittling. Earlier. So that makes market expansion more difficult because there's three to five survivors instead of one or two.

13:10 When you overfund, you do everything. There's tons of great articles and research about constraints lead to creativity and you're better off Choosing one or two primary product initiatives. But when you have that much money You do seven. You do them all. You do them all. Yeah. And

13:27 I think we had a mini correction. And twenty twenty two, twenty three. This was before AI blew up. And most of'em ran towards break even, to your exact point. So when you run to break even, you stop doing those seven things. You go down to the two things. But those seven things and overfunding your sales force, they led to revenue.

13:48 It's not very sustainable revenue. So when you cut it back and go towards break even Your growth rate gets it. It would just be natural. So

13:58 Yeah, that's what I think led to low growth. I do think what you said is true. Many of'em had enough capital to get towards break even or near it. And you would think that'd be a positive. Based on all my Previous talking about

14:12 The wonderful nature of traditional company building. Of course I'm supportive of that, but there is an underlying reality in they could perhaps exist forever. Which I think leads To the zombie tag. What's the so what of it all? So no one has the incentive to take the marks.

14:31 Isn't it just gonna stay this way? What's gonna change? Let's come back to that. Let me move on. I wanna get these market realities out there. Okay, great. And then we'll we'll dive into what's possible. The next one's exits. Where these things are gonna Price in a real way. So we got megaphone zombie unicorns. And then The capital market. So

14:53 Reasons that aren't Well articulated, well understood, both the IPO and MA markets have stalled. over the past couple of years. Twenty twenty one was actually pretty good on both fronts, but things have stalked. I think it's really important if you look at last year, twenty twenty four, the Nasdaq was up thirty percent. And the window was closed. That seems to be the general belief of everyone out there. Never in my history of paying attention to the capital markets or being in venture capital do you have a successful Nasdaq market and a closed window. And no IPS, yeah.

15:28 Yeah, it makes no sense. That was what was correlated. And so something else is happening. I believe a part of it. I've been very passionate about is the IPO discount that the banks force upon the market, especially the well known high branded ones. But other people point to the cost of going public too high, other people

15:48 Cost of it. Point to the cost of being public too high, and then of course we know money's everywhere. So we'll come back to this in the second part, but People don't have to go public, or at least the very successful companies don't have to go public. M and A is a bit harder to unpack. Everyone blamed it on Lena Khan, but she's gone and we didn't have record MA. In the first five months of the year.

16:10 It's likely Mag Seven related. those seven companies are sitting on An ungodly amount of cash. And in any natural universe that would lead to massive M and A and I'm sure they would love to use it for that. I think they'd buy back stock for it because they can't.

16:29 But Washington's not excited about it. The EU's really not excited about them being active and it's a stuck situation. People don't want to enter into an MA agreement with a low certainty of close. And even the Wiz deal, which is the big outlier. This year. The minute they announced it, they said it would take over a year to close. That's very difficult. For a board and a management team. To take on.

16:56 Waiting a year. It's hard. Do you think we'll see a one trillion dollar private company soon. How far is SpaceX from being there already?

17:06 It's a third of the way there. Opening eyes a third of the way there, stripes tenth of the way there. There's a good handful that if they keep their success trains going. They will get there.

17:16 I'm trying to make the point about the need to go public. If you can be a trillion dollar private company, I mean it seems crazy. We will get to that. And then the last thing that could be hurting M and A is the overpricing. We did in twenty twenty one and we continue today to fund the most exciting companies to perfection. And that can have an impact on M and A as well.

17:39 Maybe say one more click about why that can keep happening. In your estimation. Is it just because the feedback loop is the first set of things we talked about? I think it was Zurp. And

17:49 Pre LM, I think post LM The world believes and I think this is my fifth point or something, but the world believes AI is the biggest platform shift. In anyone's lifetime. Yeah. And so if you believe that And then the other thing. I go back to when Movison and I were

18:06 back at at first Boston thirty something years ago. The notions of network effects and compounding effects weren't well understood or recognized or believed. I think that's a wholesale belief right now. And so people that have watched Google or Meta go from looking expensive at twelve billion to three trillion.

18:27 They assume something might be that They can't overpay in their mind. Which I think is rational. For the independent player. If everyone does it

18:38 The market's starting to price it in. But we'll see. The next big thing we're talking about is many LPs, not all LPs, but many LPs have a liquidity problem. And that's a new reality.

18:51 It's tied to the lack of IPOs and the lack of M and A. It's also. Fairly new and unique. I found this stat in the first quarter of twenty twenty five, US colleges and universities twelve billion dollars of debt. Which was the third highest quarter ever.

19:09 That's an interesting reality if you're using debt to fund capital commitments because your endowment doesn't have the liquidity it needs to pay out the three or five percent or whatever it is that they always had traditionally paid out. And then very recently you probably saw this. Harvard Announced there in the market selling secondary for a billion. They have a lot of unique things that would make them be out there. But even more interesting, Yale has announced that they're in the market. Looking to sell six billion dollars of private equity.

19:43 The fact that Yale is the one doing it. Is super important. And super interesting from a historical perspective. I would argue no single institution's had a bigger impact on the strategy of endowment management in Yale.

19:57 Certainly not. David Swenson. Yeah. The historic the godfather of this model. Yeah. No doubt.

20:04 And so Yale, I think they say had a 13% compounding return over thirty five years under David Swenson. He is known for the Yale model. And the Yale model is put a lot more money in illiquid assets than liquid assets. And the reason no one did that. originally is there's a lack of transparency, there's a lack of liquidity, they're hard to manage.

20:29 All this stuff. But he did it and it worked. I would suggest The What we might be seeing

20:37 Is The exact result of everyone copying the Yale model. Howard Marks famously said you make a lot of money when you do something non consensus and accurate. But what if everyone copies David Swinson? What if everyone goes to fifty percent of liquid? Will it still work? I think that's a provocative question. But I think that's

20:58 What happened for sure. And the fact that Yale Which led us into the strategy is trying to get out. I find super interesting. If you think about these L P liquidity issues, is it the thing that ultimately breaks up this big log jam that you've described.

21:16 Could be. If I can get past these realities we're gonna sorry, can't help myself. The AI wave came at a really interesting time. This is my fifth point, I think, out of six realities. We were headed to this mini correction. You have to remember, Patrick, people were tightening their belt. These companies were laying people off. They're trying to get to break even. There was worried about

21:40 than being able to raise money. And I would argue over the past thirty years that I have a window into VC, the corrective were healthy. Every time the VC community got out over its skis, there'd be a correction and things would settle back down. I would watch Morgan and Goleman open offices on Sand Hill Road and then close offices and go away. And Bortune and Forbes pay attention to Silicon Valley and then go away. And I saw that multiple times. You never had a full correction here because AI came along and

22:11 Everyone got so excited. I'm not saying they shouldn't be excited. If it is the biggest platform shift in our lifetime, then you have to get excited about it. It it it has implications for the zombie unicorn group and everything else, if that's true. But we've all of a sudden seen massive amount of interest in investing. The AI companies, what do you think?

22:33 Their valuations relative to revenue what Ten X, twenty X. A normal company? Is that Yeah. Yeah, something like that. Or in some cases more.

22:43 Right. And despite the fact that the traditional LPs are tapped. They were able to go find money elsewhere. The Middle East is the area where most of that money was coming from. And over the past twelve months, how many times has a friend of yours been in the Middle East? A lot. And they're talking to fundraisers. And so they were able to find the money. The money has come in.

23:06 And people Are out there spending it. Against This opportunity. It's something no one wants to miss. And it's just an important component. Of everything that's going on here.

23:17 The last thing I wanted to talk about. What you already hinted at is There's a new motion in the late stage market. And I think Josh and the team at Thrive.

23:27 They're not the only one, but they've been leading the way here where you go at Companies that We're already on the list to go public that the journal was talking about they're gonna go public next year. And you present them with an offer

23:40 The I don't know if you want to call it too good. To refuse, but something of that nature. Founder liquidity encourages Employee liquidity, it might encourage angel liquidity.

23:51 And you Basically encourage the company to stay private. We've seen that now a couple times. Most recently data bridge. But strike. And Patrick and John have gone on different podcasts and talked about

24:07 At one point it felt like they were saying, Yeah, we might go public, but not now. More recently sounds like what you said, we might never go public. And Some of the LPs that I talked to, this is Fairly unusual. They've traded in and out of strike.

24:21 And the company's somewhat comfortable with it? And That's very new and unique. in our world. I think the ability for those companies to get the capital they need, either primary or for their employees to sell some of their stock, or for early investors to sell the later investors, it functions like a by appointment public market or something like that. Correct. More like the old pink sheet trade by appointment.

24:44 Yeah. Stripe's undoubtedly a great company run by incredible founders. Why take on the additional burden of extra work and scrutiny and data disclosure and show your competitors what you're doing and all this kind of stuff if functionally you have your own captive private Market. It seems to make sense for everyone involved.

25:02 Which is why I wonder if it might just keep going. Well it might. And if L Ps can create liquidity by selling some of their stripe without a problem, then They don't care either. It doesn't even come up against the liquidity problem. We're about to dive into all that.

25:16 I wanna mention one thing that I think is Barely. Interesting and intuitive once you hear it. But those investors that are encouraging that behavior.

25:28 I think there's another element that's going on here. If you think about a traditional IPO, the thing I hate. Maybe more than anything, as you already know. The bank's gonna be very Deliberate. on their allocations. So

25:44 If a company were going public. A Let's just say. Large. public investor and private investor.

25:51 Fermax. puts in for an allocation. What do they tip? They over subscribe by a hundred X, hoping and they may get one or two percent of the offering. They're not gonna get thirty percent. And When these

26:05 Ferms go to a company like Databricks or Striper, whoever and encourage this round They can get thirty percent. So they can get a bigger ownership percentage than they would get to a traditional IPO process. And in fact They share a lot of these deals, so kind of an oligopic opportunity to hoard the public IPO growth years and take it away from the public markets. So We all know Amazon went public less than a billion dollars and then traded over a trillion. And the public market had access to

26:38 All those great years of compounding and If you step in and delay that And get decent ownership you wouldn't get otherwise. Maybe those firms are better off than they would have been participating in those companies while they were public. Here's super important piece that goes on top of that.

26:56 They then turn around to go to the LP community and say companies are no longer going public when they used to. If you want exposure to that growth in these important high tech companies, you have to invest in me. And that resonates. So we've gotten through your market realities. Now I I would like to poke and prod At all of them. Interesting premise to me is

27:18 I come up from a place of wanting very healthy capital markets. The US capital markets are An incredible thing to have happened in world history. And have driven so much of innovation. So my perspective is good, healthy, functioning capital markets that price risk well. I'm in favor of whatever does that. And I'm curious where you think

27:38 the system given these market realities. is most broken from that perspective. And you hope that it changes. I agree with you on the wish. I think

27:49 That we are way better off. If there are more companies One thing I didn't bring up in the reality is that I know you know and most people know is the number of total public companies in the US is way down from peak. And so there's less companies going public and I think a big part of that is this IPO process, the brand name Banks. I had my friend Jay Ritter rerun the data. Is there up twenty five, twenty six percent underpricing? You add in the seven percent fee and you're like a thirty-three percent cost to capital.

28:21 I know one CEO that's on file and talking to their bankers and the bankers say, We think you should price it X and the founder said, I can raise a billion tomorrow at twenty percent above that. To your point, why go public if the private markets are this fluid and liquid and optimized. So I don't know what it would take. I would think deals with a capital raise are just gonna get rid of that piece. There's a really interesting Post by Hester Pierce.

28:48 Maybe you can put in the show notes. It's only eight pages long. She's the longest standing commissioner of the SEC. There's only four right now. And she's the one that's been the most crypto friendly. But this post called a creative and cooperative balancing act. Argues that may be blockchain.

29:04 Is the path. To fix the IPO market, which is provocative. In what sense to tokenize the private assets and let them trade? Tokenized the security. No one would go back to doing a crypto allocation the way an ITO works. It would immediately be DL like.

29:23 Right. I mean that's how I COs already work. Yeah, so that's interesting. I'm gonna watch it. MA is tough. The regulatory pressure is so high. We had those weird pseudo acquisitions in the AI space.

29:37 With the license agreement and the hiring of the people. But we haven't seen one in a while. That was kind of a way. Around it. And look, when you price things so high. You look at some of these AI rounds, I could see

29:50 It making sense for Apple maybe to be in the market. For something like a perplexity, but they just raise At fifteen billion or whatever. It makes it hard for things to close when the prices are that high. So I don't know on the capital markets.

30:04 It's funny you mentioned that statement. I think a lot of people say out loud, We have the best functioning capital markets in the world. They're the envy of the entire globe. I'm less convinced personally. What do you think are other interesting pockets You mentioned the Middle East and how They have been incredibly front footed about this entire wave of technology.

30:26 really pushing hard to be majorly involved in the most interesting companies and technologies and infrastructure. Is there other innovation in capital markets that you've seen that interests you? I don't know if you'd call it innovation, but the Ko two had an announcement recently that was different. I haven't talked to Felipe about it. I'm just mentioning what I read. So they used to have a five million dollar minimum for a commitment. They're taking it down to twenty five thousand or something. And they're gonna work with an investment bank to place it.

30:55 It's a similar reflection of the point I made about how they would pitch their LPs, but it's Tapping into a capital pool which People sometimes refer to as dentists and doctors. They might not otherwise have access to a manager like Coke Two.

31:12 Bringing more capital to bear. The same thing I hear is happening in the PE world. I think one of the big P firms is in Washington begging to let four oh one Ks invest in private. Trying to unlock. Different sources of capital. It's interesting. Someone pushed back on me when I was testing this theories and say, Oh, but the US institutional Ps are tapped. We'll find capital elsewhere. Look, we're finding it elsewhere. But

31:38 That's just putting more money in the top. And I couldn't quite think of the best metaphor, but you have a pipe. That has input and output and The output stuck.

31:49 I guess the human digestive system might be the best way to think about just eating more food doesn't help with the constipation problem. When you talk to L P Obviously don't have to like name the specific people. What are they saying to you?

32:05 Are there things that they're not saying out loud that they're talking about more in private that You think are important? I think there's a heightened awareness of all the market realities that I discussed. And I think in there Place they have to make a decision.

32:22 Talk about long term decision making. If you're working in an endowment, you don't get much time to make a decision and your feedback cycles are ten or fifteen years. So it's tough. But you have to start thinking about Whether these things we're discussing are temporary or permanent. And if they're permanent. You have to

32:42 change the way you do things. So as I mentioned, one of the LPs I talked to had moved in and out of stripe. Knows the person to call. that is running capital markets basically at the firm and is starting to consider that it could be permanent.

33:00 And thinking about How they need to be positioned for some for a world like that. Apollo came out I think maybe today or yesterday with this interesting report that of the firms that have more than a hundred million dollars of revenue. Eighty seven percent now, just by count, are private.

33:17 Now, obviously if you did that by like market cap, it would be more skewed towards public just because of the huge technology companies. But pretty crazy. I mean, even with that minimum of a hundred million is a lot of revenue. So we're just living in a world that is a very private markets. Heavy world just seems undeniable. Yeah. Maybe I'm

33:36 change some of the ording around here'cause I had five analysis points, but I think that's a messier world. The comment you made about The best world would be one with highly functioning capital markets where it's efficient to go public and where things trade in liquid markets and you trade daily and with low transaction costs. I do think that's the better world. If we move to a world where The answer to getting the everyday consumer into high growth tech is to

34:06 Put their Endowments, four hundred one K's IRAs into these venture funds that are charging two and twenty I don't think What was that famous investing book? One up on Wall Street, Harvey Yeah, I know what I'm talking about, yeah.

34:22 He would have never wanted that world to be the world that emerged, but it looks like we might be headed towards that world. I just think there's more obfuscation, less transparency, there will be more fraud, there will be higher transaction costs. It would be the nature of the beast. When we use the example of a stripe or whatever, that's one company. We might go up to five companies in the example, but we're worried about fifteen hundred companies, and they can't all do that. They can't all

34:51 Be strong. One of the things that you taught me many, many years ago is you have to play the game on the field and also think about Where's the game going and play for that future reality as well. But if we take the game on the field approach of this messier

35:06 private market's heavy liquidity reality. I'm curious what you think it means a couple different groups should do. Starting with founders actually, going all the way down to the entrepreneurs that are actually driving all this value creation funded by these capital markets.

35:21 What is the logical thing? for them to do given the reality, especially in the AI world. If they can raise at fifteen billion, maybe they should. So I'm curious how you would Advise them as a group.

35:33 to respect this game on the field and do the optimal thing for their own success. They are forced to play the game on the field. And this is I think the worst part of this whole world. So There's a word that I found called a gavage. Do you know what a gravage tube is? I do not.

35:53 A gravage tube is What the French use to force feed the geese so that they can create corn. Ha ha ha. Here's a picture of one. Which is the funnel into the mouth.

36:07 And What ends up happening in this world'cause it's the same thing that happened in twenty twenty one is The minute there's a company that has any amount of excitement about it whatsoever. Someone's knocking on the door trying to give them one hundred, two hundred, three hundred million dollars.

36:27 I think for founders that have struggled their whole life to raise money. This must sound like the most ridiculous comment ever. But it's a reality, and I think you know it. You know this is a reality. And

36:40 What that does is It forces Everyone to go all or nothing swing for the fences. And I lived it in the Uber Lyft situation, but we're gonna have that type of capital battle in every category under the sun. And you mentioned the notion of

36:58 traditional company building. Traditional company building isn't spend a hundred or Hundred fifty million a year in cash burn. But all the big AI companies are doing that. Maybe more. I think OpenAI said you're gonna bend seven billion. In a year.

37:14 That's not your grandfather's startup business or your grandfather's venture capital. That's a radically different world. And if you're a founder You'd like to think the advice is, well, ignore all that and build your company the way you want to build it. But if your competitor raises three hundred million dollars and it's gonna ten X the size of their sales force or fifty X it You will be dead.

37:37 Before you know it. You won't be around. So you are forced to play the game on the field. I guess the good news is Because these investors are so eager to throw money at you, you can probably take founder liquidity. I think that's bad for the company's potential long term success, but

37:56 Because it fits with their strategy, they're all encouraging it. And so I guess. There'd be no reason not to if someone's gonna pay thirty X revenue and force you to play a game that you're not comfortable playing by

38:09 burning hundreds of millions a year, you should probably take a little off the table. I think it's bad for the ecosystem that we're gonna remove all the small and middle outcomes and just play Grand Slam home run ball. All day long. But it's

38:27 That's what it feels like. To me. And it feels like we didn't learn anything from the Zerp days. All of the Problems we talked about the

38:36 Created the zombie unicorns. We're just rerunning that. That's maybe part of not living through a correction, but we're funding these AI companies the exact way we funded those companies. I'd love to play with one piece of this that I think is really important before I get back to asking the game in the field question for GPs and LPs, which is really just to get your take on AI as a new general purpose enabling technology because that is the key difference between now and two thousand twenty one.

39:04 Just like we've never seen rounds like this, we've also never seen revenue ramps like this in companies. I know you're like me'cause you love technology. I use this stuff all day, every day. It's the most amazing technology I've ever encountered. So I would love you to just riff on. the I'll call the bull case in all of this where No one's acting that irrationally because we really do get five percent GDP growth or whatever crazy numbers because this just is a different

39:30 class of technology, even versus say the internet, which was probably the last one this big. First of all, I agree with you. I would never take the opposite side of the argument that it's not a legitimate platform shift. And if it's a platform shift. as were mobile or the internet or the PC.

39:47 That's big enough. It doesn't have to be better than those. Yeah. Could just be another one. So it's certainly one of those and might be bigger, which leads to everything that we've talked about. And as I started, I offer no judgment on any of the individual players. I think it is what it is. There is some chance.

40:08 In my brain and I haven't Fully. Thought through all the implications of this that some of the revenue growth is resale. Of compute.

40:18 Many of the players. in the market. are reselling a wrapper on top of a foundation model on top of a hosting service and Many of them. I think people believe are at negative gross margin. So you might in buying something from a wrapper company be getting compute

40:37 cheaper than you would have got it from the model company is getting it cheaper from the hosting company. And that revenue's being counted three or four times. With negative gross margin. Until we get to a point where unit economics matter and it can't matter in in a all out war market that the gavage tube funding creates. You have to go for market share.

40:59 You have to. I think that window is in front of us in terms of how that settles out. But I have no doubt. Even if you want to step away from the foundational models like the work that Brett Taylor's doing at Sierra, I have no doubt that's real. And will impact every one of those companies that he touches. Or they touch and will change those companies materially. I just don't have any doubt of that whatsoever.

41:25 I guess that's a long answer saying I think so many of these things are a rational reaction. What about this class of technology? You've lived through and invested through lots of these technology paradigm shifts.

41:40 What about this one gets you the most excited, especially relative to the other ones that you've lived through? My answer to that question's decidedly personal And it relates to what you just said. I'm probably doing

41:53 Forty or fifty searches a day on AI platforms. Which is more than I ever did. Google searches. It's almost all

42:03 A form of very quick learning. Super Quick learning about Either particulars I forgot, things I don't know about, and it's Every day and I think to myself

42:16 For those people that are inherently self learners. The speed at which they'll be able to get things accomplished and Move up the ladder is

42:27 Breathtaking. And then I think outside of LLMs From Tesla FSD to other types of problems that are being solved with traditional AI. Those are super interesting to me as well. Maybe more profound.

42:41 I do worry that LMs have A limitation. It's potentially solvable, but they were crater round language. They're not great with numbers. And when people say, Oh, the generalized AI is just gonna replace All compute. I don't see that. They're gonna have to fix some things or merge it. The way when you ask an AI math now it goes off and writes Python. You're gonna have to do more of that type of work.

43:07 To get to that place. If you're Espousing the but isn't it real? Argument. I can't push back on that. Let's jump one more degree ahead to the GPs again.

43:18 The same question about This is the game on the field. What's the rational approach. T versions of this question. One is The Spock answer and one's the Kirk answer.

43:28 The Spock answer is just Yeah, this is what's available. I want to build a platform. I'm building my own company and I want to do the rational thing to build the biggest company as an investor. And the Kirk would be if you were to restart a venture firm today. how you would approach it. Would you have a small fund like you had at benchmark? Would you have a more go anywhere fund with different fees so that you can play the game on the field? I'm curious for both perspectives on the GP side. As I answer it, I want to

43:54 But highlights. One of two last things I wanted to get on the table. Um That is that time is a massive problem. We're moving

44:03 The time to liquidity of these companies. From Five to seven years. To ten to fifteen years? I don't know the exact number. And I think

44:14 Every LP is aware of that. I think I forwarded you this NVCA graph and in there it has the percentage Um committed funds that's paid back in the five to ten year window of a venture fund. And it used to average twenty percent, it's been as high as thirty, and it it got down to five last year and it's in the five to seven range, which hints at the big L P liquidity.

44:41 Problem. But it's a problem for GPs too. The reason time is such a massive problem is you have the cost of capital, the IRR that just eats away. And everyone loved to say, Oh, it's not IRR, it's DPI. But If Time doubles. It is IR. That's what really matters. And in addition to that time.

45:03 The cost of capital, you have dilution. So every one of these zombie unicorns is diluting Three, four, five, six percent a year on equity issuance. to the employee base. And when you combine those two, it's a real problem. Let's say you were expecting to get a hundred dollars back from investment in year ten and you want to delay it to year fifteen, if you just take that ten percent compounding, it now needs to be worth a hundred and sixty. dollars in year fifteen. If you make the argument that

45:35 These people invested in venture to get a big return, then your cost of capital is not five. That's the risk free rate. It's fifteen. And then it's twenty percent a year, fifteen plus the five from the equity dilution. And now If you wait five more years, guess how much money you need instead of a hundred dollars. Two hundred and fifty dollars. For five year delay just to meet the same return expectation people had of the asset class. So that's a real problem. It's also not clear to me. I think there were a certain number of companies that were either acquired or went public in a stage, and then entropy exists. All companies

46:14 have trouble growing over the very long term. And once again, I think you're taking that window out. People love to talk about if you take out the big winner, what's the return of the fund? But I haven't asked anyone the question, well, what if you keep the big winner but get rid of everything else? Because That feels like where we're headed. That's a long way of saying I really don't know the answer to your question.

46:37 I spent my whole career in an early stage and I still Love that time period. And I think it's The time window where you can make the biggest bet. And have the biggest outcome. I really hate

46:50 To think about Everyone Of the next generation of general partners. Having Every company lives through what

46:59 was on the field in the Uber Lyft situation because You go into a board meeting and the other company raises another billion the thinking that you're forced to do at the table was should we go negative gross margin for two more years and take market share. You're not gonna find it in a Harvard case study, I'll tell you that. It is a unique set of cards to be playing and it's

47:24 Super high stakes poker. With strategies that you're not gonna read about'em in good degree. This isn't how people who traditionally ran companies and made'em great. All the stuff you read In every

47:38 Buffett ladder. Will not apply. In that world of capital competition. I want to talk about LPs now and the tendency or lack thereof for capital to seek the highest risk adjusted return in general. It should be the case in a rational sense.

47:55 that over time the pools of capital would shift around. And seek the highest risk of just return. That's the whole point. So I'm curious what you think the impediments are to that just happening and

48:07 It's another way of asking what should LPs do now. They're the capital owners. Or they represent the capital owners. their job ostensibly is to get the best risk adjusted returns relative to their own personal needs. What should they do and what might stop them from doing it?

48:23 Well This would probably be the last point that I'd love to drive home and then we can just talk broadly about the situation. But You ask a provocative question at the very beginning of the podcast early on, you said P liquidity issue

48:40 be a catalyst of some kind that causes this world to change. And there are a lot of things pressing at that. Time. is a problem as we've already talked about and they've been putting debt in place. There's broad talk in Washington about endowment taxes. Which drive more liquidity.

49:00 Requirements. for these endowments and it's something they've never had before. You have the research cuts, not just the aggressive stuff at Harvard, but even The research cuts. On the normal

49:12 NIH and NSF grants. What was that extra part where they cut it from sixty to ten to overhead or whatever Even that is gonna cause The universities to tell their endowment instead of three percent, we need five percent or we need six percent a year. So those things are the kind of things that could push The LP's in a more difficult situation.

49:34 Yale maybe being first into the secondary market looks exciting. You're a small endowment, you've never had access to Sequoia's. You're gonna get to buy a slice here through Yale. But if you had a secondary pricing fall out. As more and more big players come to the table, that could have a r reciprocal effect on all of this stuff. And then I think the other big thing to watch is whether the Middle East might change their mind.

50:01 I sent you a link that you can put in here from the chief investment director in Qatar. And Sheikh Saud Salim Al Saba. He said The head of the world's largest sovereign wealth fund said the clock is ticking for private equity and joined the chorus of investors who've grown worried about the industry's valuation practices.

50:23 That's a different perspective out of the Middle East. And if that were to get infectious And become the universal opinion instead of one of the players' opinions, that would have a big impact. Out there.

50:36 So I think that's the area to watch. If I were an LP, what would I do? I mean, I certainly think you dabble in the late stage private market on both sides as a seller and a buyer to see what the motion looks like so that you can feel it out. I don't wanna create a run on the bank, but you might Really re evaluate. Whether the Yale model works if everyone's doing it. I think it definitely worked when Yale was the only one doing it.

51:02 But I don't know that it works now. I think it'd be interesting. to find a P E firm that was gonna very aggressively go through the zombie unicorn. Group of

51:13 thousand companies. And try and extract value. I would think there's some opportunity there to look at it. Optimistically instead of pessimistically. I might be interested in that as well. If you were thinking about the strictly returns part of this equation, one of your original partners, Andy Ratcliffe, was very fond of saying you want to be

51:35 Against the crowd and correct to earn the most money. Is part of the answer perhaps looking to invest in private markets away from AI where The pricing and supply demand story is extremely different. If you just go to a more run of the mill company

51:50 The Capital markets are not super excited to fund them, and they're evaluating them in very strict calculator terms to a degree that's nothing like what they're doing in AI. Is that a place to go spend more time? I even think Some of the names I've already mentioned that are considered to be

52:07 These late stage. investors are thinking this way. They're thinking, what if I can find a traditional company that may not understand that AI would enhance it, but where we can go do that ourselves. And maybe that is a disruptive way of looking at things. That non consensus accurate Quadrant. The first time I read it was Howard Marks, who I Read everything I can that Howard Rice

52:30 There is, I think, an incongruence between that point of view And these platform shifts. Because these platform shifts Have now become Consensus.

52:41 You'd have to not invest in AI, which sounds outlandish. So I don't know that you can apply those two things simultaneously. One thing that's super interesting about AI, to your point, and maybe is the big companies seem to have move very quickly. I mean if you go on

52:59 Service Now's website, it just drips of AI. Microsoft earnings transcript. had sixty seven occurrences of AI and Sha just talked for two hours about AI. It's a weird thing. I think a lot of what we read in Crossing the Chasm or The Innovator's Dilemma, the big companies are supposed to be slow to mobile, slow to the internet.

53:22 That's an opportunity for the startups. This is an interesting one where I think a lot of the big companies have paid attention early. Did you think that that's just happening now, though, in a different form? And maybe the example would be in theory. Google should have been in the very best position to dominate Every AI use case and yet

53:43 Basically no one I know is using Gemini or Google to do code gen or to do their just daily driver LLM work or frankly much of anything else. And they're using startups, cursor, anthropic, open AI. Even though they are moving fast. The technology companies themselves are just redemonstrating this same phenomenon again. I think there are data points on both sides. I think that's an interesting argument. Apple is an interesting argument. Microsoft.

54:10 Having missed one and survived. puts him in a better position to be alert about the next one. I saw an interesting interview between Friedberg and Sundar where he asked him if you had ever read Dana Based Dilemma and he admitted not. So when your company's crushing it, those kind of things. Those were for somebody else. But yeah, maybe now he should read it. Evaluating an exciting new AI company where the revenue is of a different nature than maybe enterprise SaaS was or something. How would you go about

54:44 assessing the quality of revenue in a new AI startup today as an investor. I think it's tough for the reason I mentioned before you might be getting A million dollar deal and it has negative gross margin for you, but On the flip side, you're looking at Any

55:01 AI model that's two generations old sells for one one hundred the price per token. as today's and I think you could probably have confidence that you're going to Price optimized later. One of the interesting things that partners at Benchmark have been looking at and assessing is when companies move to optimization mode and how they make decisions differently once they do that.

55:29 than when they're in experimentation and sandbox mode. And with the amount of capital you have. You can run sandbox mode longer. Before you go to optimization mode. And we saw this on the internet. I like to highlight that the first two years everyone built on Sun and Oracle. Everyone.

55:47 All the startups did. And Five, six years in, no one did. That's why it's so important to pay attention to that shift. What do you think about the

55:58 Interesting international competitive dynamics. And AI which Existed to a lesser extent in some of these other platform shifts where it was mostly the United States. Western technology at the forefront.

56:10 China's the obvious big question here around deep seek and things like it, but now also startups coming out of China. that are offering what look like incredibly impressive products. How do you process the international, especially China versus US component of this race? I think there's a super interesting development in the China situation that will be very, very Fascinating to watch. And that is when deep sea

56:37 Hit. And took off. We were all focused on how the US reacted, the US models, Washington. The fact that AWS host of deep seeker, whatever. What happened in China, however, is Alibaba made.

56:51 When Open source. Zhao Me has a model out now. I forget the name of it. Moby, I think, maybe. It's open source.

57:00 And Robin Lee, but I do had his model proprietary and he said in June it's gonna be open source. And so That

57:10 level of competition if it leads to four deep pocketed all open products. Is gonna be ultra powerful. And we've already learned that these models can train each other and help each other get better. So if you have four open ones that can all train on each other and everybody can get a hold of that. I think that's gonna lead to a massive amount of Optionality.

57:34 And experimentation that we're not gonna have here. That's the most fascinating piece of the international AI. narrative that I've seen. How much do you find yourself having allegiances where you want a certain group to win versus other? Like what are you most rooting for, I guess? In the whole thing. Competition.

57:52 It's funny you bring that up. I was noticing that Some of the people that are the biggest China Hawks are the ones that have bet on the new V C back military companies. And I just hate that you might become a warmonger, but I know that that's possible because when I was investor in Uber, you defend it at all costs. That's natural. It's like your child. You're looking out for it. And so your allegiance are going to go when your investors are. And I still feel that. for any company that's got benchmark attached to it.

58:25 I don't know that I'll ever not feel that way. So That is what it is. That's I think a lot of how this world works. In terms of just the technologies, I think some of the non LLM stuff super exciting. I can't wait to see what's possible with robotic intelligence. I'd love to see Us make gains in the healthcare space. I don't think all disease will be gone in ten years, like the AI founders are saying. I think that's

58:53 Ridiculous thing to say out loud. But it'll be fun to watch it all. As you said. I'm using this stuff every day. The pace of change is the fastest I've ever seen in my entire

59:05 Korea. If you miss a week of news. It's like a different world. A week later. You brought up the the fence startup ecosystem

59:14 I would extend that to say The фізику вор. hard technology ecosystem, lots of which has nothing to do with war. mining companies or whatever. How do you think about this category of company that is they're undoubtedly technology companies? They're often operating in very large markets.

59:31 But they have a very different Capital intensity. Profile typically they require. Tons and tons of capital to get to revenue and long periods of time. There's all the nuclear stuff, fusion and fission, How do you think about that kind of

59:45 private markets technology investing. I know you didn't do a lot of it, which makes me think maybe you don't love it. As a rule of thumb, if I were a professor, I would say You could study it mathematically, and it hasn't been a great place for returns. And you could look at There was a massive amount of venture capital put into solar. fifteen, twenty years ago and it didn't work.

1:00:07 There's one exception to this whole rule and it's anything Elon Musk touches. So SpaceX and Tesla are data points, but they're outliers really, and they're both attached to Elon. So I think we'll have to see four or five of those from non Elonch to know if it's possible. What I've learned and heard and studied about his execution prowess and his speed that he develops inside of these companies. I don't know that others can

1:00:38 handle that or are capable of it. It'd be great for the world if they are and they are successful. And by the way, we've seen waves. Oh capital availability lead to more interest. And

1:00:51 businesses that are less capital efficient. There's a correlation there. So the other thing to watch is if that got tighter. Would the appetite still be there? Many of those businesses involve regulation and mining gets better if we're not allowed to use China. And so I hate that part of this world, but I gave a speech on regulatory capture a few years ago and no one from Silicon Valley was in Washington at the time. And now they're all there, hill and valley, everything else. So that's another

1:01:21 element, maybe it should have been on my reality world. It seems like That is just gonna happen that Venture back early. private markets backed companies that deal with big regulated industries are just gonna get processed. And I'm curious if something like Anderil, which maybe is a thirty billion dollar valuation, something like that. So not SpaceX level, but but big.

1:01:42 Is another data point in your mind towards Okay, we actually can execute in companies that require lots of capital. Unquestionably that's true. From a regulatory standpoint. So I think

1:01:54 It had historically been very difficult for companies to break through in these industries solely because of regulation. And prior to Tesla, there was like seven motors. There are other attempts. Yeah, building cars and none of'em work. And I think a lot of them got stuck along the way from a regulatory standpoint more than anything. So

1:02:16 Andrew being cleared by the DOD and actively selling into our military is certainly a new data point and a very impressive one for a startup to have achieved that, no doubt. I don't know that that means every VC under the sun should jump into this stuff. It's hard. If you can make a software company or as people like to say, a social network company, spring to life and generate revenue growth in high margin, boy, that's a much easier path to riches than what we're talking about. No. Are there any other pockets of the ecosystem right now that we haven't talked about that you are especially interested in, company types or investing strategies or dynamics? If I were still an active GP

1:03:01 And I think a few people are doing this, but if I were an active GP, I would be Thinking about Verticals Way. And thinking about where AI is exceptionally great.

1:03:14 It's exceptionally great in language. Coding is a tighter form of language. So it's even better at coding. And there are areas where that matters. A lot of this is played out. That matters in legal, that matters in customer support. But there's probably other pockets that have yet to be fully explored. But that fit is super interesting to me.

1:03:37 What do you think? Back to our original set of realities that you explored. from the L P side and just the capital markets systems level. Stuff. What do you think is gonna happen?

1:03:48 You've laid out the realities on the field and the various incentives or lack thereof for change. What do you think is going to happen in the next, let's say, five years across The domain. My God is That we have a problem.

1:04:03 I've always been more of an analyst than an optimist, even though a successful inventor. So I had to be somewhat of an optimist. But I started as a security analyst. I'm born with more of a critical thinking hat. So My bias would be that way and someone could certainly take the other side and say, Oh, girly's always Predicting the next downturn or whatever. But my gut is we have a problem.

1:04:27 The system as it exists today promotes less liquidity, less traditional high quality company building and way higher. That's just Not a great combination from my perspective. And it's all self reinforcing. So

1:04:44 All of the components that I listed. Unless Something happens at the L P level. I don't see a corrective mechanism. I think we're getting sucked more and more into that loop. There's a great video. You may have seen where Josh Coppelman just walks through some simple GP math.

1:05:02 From his perspective. Yeah, with Jack Alman, yeah. That's all. It's what is three minutes long? May we'll put it.

1:05:09 Post in there. I have a hard time. Disagreeing with What he did there. Pretty simple math. Mm.

1:05:17 Isn't in a place where it's gonna work from the prices we're paying, the amount of money we're spending. And what you would need to have happen. for VC returns to match what they've done historically. It seems like a tough situation to puzzle out from my perspective. would happen on the other side of a reset. So let's just imagine a simulation where we can bring public equity pricing scrutiny or mechanism to every available asset.

1:05:47 And got a big pricing reset as a result. Then what? What are the pros and cons of if we have a bad moment that we have to go through? What are the good and bad things that happen on the other side of that reset, do you think? I have a hard time thinking about it.

1:06:02 I think most people would consider it awful on having lived through a couple of these resets. I did find This is maybe a bit humorous. I found as an acting GP I was much calmer. And happier And

1:06:16 found my job more fulfilling and more efficient and productive in the resets than in the maniac. Certain other actors may Prefer the maniac like Maybe someone with a sales DNA that likes to be out there amongst it all. But I just found the conversations about traditional company building and all this it was all

1:06:38 More Efficient. And Authentic in those windows. And the pretenders left town.

1:06:45 When the internet bubble bursts There were companies that were consumer were called B to C and Enterprise was a B to B. And there was a joke that that became back to consulting and back to banking. Cause people left Silicon Valley when the money wasn't easy. And the opportunists I don't love. I don't think they're in it for the right reasons and they tend to Overpromote. Overraise capital.

1:07:09 over participate in secondaries and leave situations. They can Crash and burn. I don't love that. It's a part of the world when you're dealing with it at this speed.

1:07:21 So if it corrected, people would look for opportunities. One of the things That causes this situation is I think everyone has studied history, everyone knows about compounding effects, everyone knows about network effects, everyone studied cycles, they've seen boom and bust. And you remember how long the stock market was down during the original COVID correction? Three weeks or something.

1:07:46 And then people started Buying the opposite side. So I suspect that the conviction in AI is high enough that Even if we were to Have a

1:07:57 six month period where people thought AI was overstated. It would start rebounding very quickly. If you were starting a brand new investment firm today What do you think would be the most important components of brand building for that? Sure.

1:08:13 We're now in the era where some of the upstart private market firms like Thrive and Green Oaks and Andreessen Horowitz and Rivet and The ones that were started twenty ten ish, a few years later. are incredibly big, well respected Brands.

1:08:28 And they had their own way of doing that. We're in a new era. What advice would you give to upstart investors that are starting their firm this year and want to be those firms of twelve years from now? It's funny, you just provoke something in my brain that is not the question you asked, but that's fine. Another negative element Um all the systems issues that we're talking about is

1:08:51 The firms that beg their way onto the cat chart. By writing it. three hundred million dollar check or whatever. They differentiate themselves by being The best friend of

1:09:03 the founder they possibly can be. This is a lot easier for me to say since I'm not writing checks. And if anyone doesn't like what I say, they're never going to compete with me to be a new board member. So it's fine. But They don't Take a responsibility of being someone To help you make better decisions. They're never gonna tell you no.

1:09:24 A grand example of that is the SPF. FTX situation where no one took a board seat. Everyone believed that he wasn't co mingling and it ended poorly. It's helpful. to have someone along who will call bullshit when it needs to be done, who will push on unit economics and One fear I have about

1:09:46 This world is there's less and less of that. The very best CEOs, and I put people like Barton and Any off in there. Even Mark and Meta has said this. They believe being public makes them run sharper. And One other negative of these companies staying private forever is they're not getting that feedback.

1:10:05 Now let me try and answer your question. I don't know, man. What would I do? It's a hard time for me to imagine starting on that journey because of everything that I just laid out. So I really don't know. I'm just gonna have to take a pass. Well, I'm glad I sparked the other thought with the question. It was productive one way or the other. Maybe in closing

1:10:28 You could leave people with a few thoughts on For founders specifically, I always try to come back to them because Without them doing their thing, basically none of this matters at all. That's absolutely true. Founders are facing maybe the best setup. of all time with

1:10:46 more tools to build companies, the most exciting new enabling technology maybe we've ever seen. lots of capital that's willing to fund that journey. Any closing thoughts? You've seen so many founders build some amazing big businesses across your career backed a lot of them directly.

1:11:03 Closing thoughts for them on the opportunity in front of them and how they should think about it. Yeah. If you're lucky enough to be in one of these hot companies. And you're in the middle of this whole world that we talked about. I would offer a couple of things. One, unit economics will matter one day.

1:11:19 And that doesn't mean you have to sharpen the pencil right now. Like I said, the Two generation old models cost one one hundredth the token. You can plan that we're gonna move to that. It's fine. I think that's fine to have a burn rate, but the unit economics will eventually matter. You'll eventually have to scale the company up. and operate in a efficient, productive way. And I think when you have these all out battles, you can get lost.

1:11:49 And I found a lot of founders Think about Certain elements of operating prowess as red tape. They think, Oh, that's what big companies do. That's bureaucratic. That's not why we're here. But As you grow and get over a hundred million and get to a billion in revenue, you just can't operate. And this is advice in any cycle, really, but it gets accentuated here because of the amount of capital.

1:12:14 One of my favorite pieces that Reed Hoffman ever wrote, he wrote about Uber, this pirate navy metaphor where he said all startups are born as pirates, but they eventually have to become a navy. And That's true. I think it's an uncomfortable transition for some. But you have to figure out a way to do it. Another thing that comes to my mind related to that

1:12:35 There was also a great blog post that I think Ben Horwitz wrote about he said We only want to back founders that go all the way. And it was a genius thing to write because that's what founders want to hear. It's actually true of every venture capitalist in the world because you got a fifty-fifty shot when you change the CEO. Why would you put that risk on your portfolio? But deep in that blog post. There were two or three paragraphs that says, Of course, the founder has to want to learn how to lead. And I think one piece that we miss so much in this industry. Is

1:13:08 There's nothing about a founder in the way they're born that makes them capable of leading a thousand person organization. And there are people that have studied what it takes to be good at that their whole life. There's a handful of founders, maybe thirty, they got to work with Bill Campbell to help coach them on what it means to do that, but it doesn't come natively. It's not for free. And you have to want to do that. And there's a personality type where that's very hard. I've had great conversation with Michael Dell. He did it for a while, thought he didn't want to do it, ended up finding a way where he could do it and be happy and it's hard. That part's hard. And then maybe the last thing. Well, I'd say two things. One

1:13:49 Network's effects are real and they can be more real if you focus on them. And I think If you're in a hot Market. And growths everywhere. It's easy not to think about'em, but are there elements of your business where the data Exhaust or whatever.

1:14:06 Where Let's just say You have a thousand customers and then you get to two thousand customers, that two thousand customers should have a way better experience than the thousand. And how do you design that in to your system? If you do, if you can figure that out and design that in, it'll have powerful long term. implications for the success of your company. What do you think the way to do that is in the AI era, is that mostly a data question that you just want your product to naturally produce more data that then improves the product?

1:14:38 Let's say you're serving a functional vertical If the learning of an individual customer becomes a learning for the whole group and everyone benefits, that's pretty powerful. And I think that's very doable. I mean there's some AI companies in the legal space. I'm not involved in any of them, but they're studying

1:14:55 All the intake information that you would put into a lawsuit, but they're also studying all the precedent and legal case history and the AI is gonna do X. And if you've got a human in the loop you're gonna notice the failure points and then you're gonna improve the model and Those kind of things could lead to someone that has an early lead. having an even bigger lead in the long term.

1:15:18 If there's constant improvement. of the model. Do you think that AI reopens consumer as an interesting place To invest. 'Cause it seems like it hasn't

1:15:28 been since the mobile era when A ton of amazing consumer businesses were built. That we really haven't had a lot of VCs focused on that. Capital going to that.

1:15:39 And that this might reopen that very lucrative part of the world. There are people that Have studied some of the stuff popping in China that hints at this, and I should probably do more work on that and be more knowledgeable than I am. I would also say we had a early shot on goal with character, which traded, but There's two elements of the first wave of LMs that I think make'em not perfect for consumer. One is voice being really good, which they're getting better at, and the second one being memory.

1:16:10 And they're starting to get better at that. I think they're doing it outside of the core LLM, but it doesn't matter. And then they put it in the context window as those things improve. A lot of the negative feedback on the early character AI was that they didn't really get to know you. And so the efficiency or the network effect and learning impact and switching costs weren't there. It's not that difficult for me to imagine exactly what played out in her. Which was Unbelievable movie for its time, by the way.

1:16:39 I think that will happen. I would be shocked if you don't see four or five companies pop up in the next year. And maybe that's the contrarian thing that we were looking for that we wandered onto or you wandered on to, which is Most of the work in the US has been on the enterprise side and there probably are some real opportunities on the consumer side. Bill, it's so much fun to do this with you. Maybe every couple of years we'll do a state of the markets update, since you're not doing them directly for LPs anymore, and we'll do it for the whole universe.

1:17:09 Thanks with me and for all that you've learned, sharing it with us all. Yeah, and I know the L P community pays attention to everything that you do, Patrick. So I would encourage Anyone that has feedback for me or that wants to correct something that I said or anything to reach out and I'd love to engage and learn more. I find the industry fascinating and I'm hopeful that anything I share is useful. I'm it to give back

1:17:35 Careful what you wish for. We'll put the bad signal out there. Bill, thanks so much for your time. Alright, bad. If you enjoyed this episode, visit joincolossis.com where you'll find every episode of this podcast complete with hand edited transcripts. You can also subscribe to Colossus Review, our quarterly print, digital, and private audio publication featuring in-depth profiles of the founders, investors, and companies that we admire most. Learn more at joincolossis dot com slash subscribe.

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