Nvidia's Historic Quarter, SaaS Comeback, Bessent vs Druck, America's Debt Crisis, Cancer Vaccine

0:00 All right, everybody, welcome back. the number one podcast in the world, your favorite podcast, your podcaster's favorite. Podcast, yes, it's the all in podcast. The core four. The fantastic four.

0:10 The original quartet is here. David Freeberg hot off of his Deep state conspiracy interview with Eric Weinstein. Amazing. You did a little run to DC. Great episode. Freeber.

0:22 It was fun. Eric is one of a kind. I saw Cratios too, kind of two sides of the coin of science in America was the Basis of those two interviews. They were fun. Who is Eric Weinstein? He's a scientist who works with Peter Thiel from Harvard, has done some really capital. Yeah. And he um

0:43 He had a podcast for a hot minute. He is a heterodox thinker in science. What is his heterodoxical thought about science? things that everyone takes as fundamental premises in modern physics, like the string theory as an example, and he thought it was bullshit. So he's been kind of outcast in the scientific communities. It is bullshit.

1:04 Right. And So he's made this case and he's proposed alternative theories that kind of create a grand unification theory. A physics

1:12 And then he's been outcast by the scientific community and People say that he's a quack and he's moron. And he's talked about UFOs and he's talked about Jeffrey Epstein, and people kind of say, Well, this guy's fringe, or they use these different terms to chastise him. And over time You know, the point is, similar to what Kratios has said, like so much of science has kind of followed this

1:33 sheep like mentality where everyone has to line up agree to the same general theory, or you get outcast, you don't get grant funding, you don't get tenure. You don't get jobs, you don't get invited to do lectures. You have to follow the mainstream in science. Or your outcast. And it used to be that science was all about heterodoxy.

1:50 Yeah. Until string theory is proved, it's unproved. And so if you want to use the adjective bullsh, that's fine. It'll probably offend some people. But he's more right on the substance of what he's saying than he is wrong. It's unproved. Right. It's like Jay Bodhicharya being like, Hey, you know, Covid may have come from a lab leak. And when people were saying this, they were they they were told You are creating conspiracy theories, you are pushing misinformation.

2:17 When there is no misinformation, if there's no absolute truth. That you're talking about it's theory. Everyone was starting with theory on where the COVID came from. You're talking about a level of corruption in a very narrow specific realm of science, which is the funding And grant approval apparatus. That and getting tenure and getting professorships. And so if you don't follow the voting

2:36 The methods, the theory. If you don't follow the mainstream you gotta stay outcast. By the way, I buy that. I don't I don't know what your point is that this is what has led to stagnation in science in America. Because if you're not part of the mainstream You get excluded, and because everyone has to now think in the same way. You don't have heterodox thinking. You don't have outside of the scope thinking. Which means we're not pushing the envelope and discovering new things anymore.

2:57 And that's a very kind of pointed Issue right now. That's why I went and talked to Said differently, there's probably a lot of incrementalism in twenty twenty six that didn't exist in nineteen twenty six. Totally.

3:09 Exactly right. think about the general theory of relativity being published, it was completely outlandish, but people still studied it. assessed it. They didn't discredit it and say, Oh, you're an idiot and if you're thinking about this general theory of relativity as being real. You're a moron. That's what goes on today in science, where if you say stuff that's too far outside of the realm of the standard approach to things.

3:29 You're you're chastised, you're outcast, you're excluded. Do you guys see the uh Olympics? You see the robot Olympics sacks? Check this out. I did see it, yeah. This is pretty crazy. They had these uh Olympics.

3:41 In China. Oh my god. They copy how Freeberg actually runs it. Look at this. Look at that. Yes. That is definitely a Freeberg sprint. The Freeberg sprint. Look at this one. He backs up.

3:56 And then boom my sprint. That's like me skiing right there. Yeah. Look, and there's Jason Kuhn setting records at forty two. This is Jason Kuhn right here. There's Jason Kuhn. Yeah. With his shirt off at the poker game. No, like right. You're sure back on coon. You know, I I was thinking about the sacks.

4:14 You know what I realized? I think you're a hundred percent right about the PR. And I realized Yeah. The Chinese, the CCP is Brilliant.

4:25 At PR. Look what they did. They got a bunch of Chinese people to fill a stadium and cheer for AI and robotics. They're cheering for it. They're rooting for it. And then we got Dario saying all jobs are over. We're gonna be the last company in the world. And it's the end of days. We're not talking about Dario this week. We're not talking about Dario this week. Your grand unifying theory is that in a country of a billion people they couldn't find four thousand to show up. To watch a bunch of robots run around a track? Are you really sorry? Oh, Dave, this is the That's your grand unifying theory?

4:55 It is true that China is much more optimistic about AI than we are. AI optimism in China is over eighty percent, meaning they pull on the question, do you think AI will be more beneficial than harmful? Over eighty percent of Chinese people say yes. In the US that number is in like thirty percent.

5:11 Mm. So I've been saying for a while that the US is ahead of China in every category except one. Which is optimism. And that is the biggest risk to us.

5:21 winning this AI race against China is doing something that we'll shoot ourselves in the foot because we're so pessimistic about what AI might do. I think it's all psyops. They making you feel you see that? Sho the s the the robot blowing up. At sixteen seconds, Nick. This is all stage, it's a psyops.

5:37 This is a science. They make you feel Bad for the robots, you they make you cheer for them. This is gonna be like a major thing. No, it's the red robot. The funniest thing was when the red robot lost his legs. There was like a couple of tweets that I thought were hilarious. Like one guy was like, Oh my God, he tore his HDMI, his CPU And then and then and then the second one, which is not funny because I know Christian McCaffrey and he's a great guy. He's like Christian McCaffrey in week three, and you just see the entire leg just snap off. Very very mean. Congratulations to the C C P

6:09 By the way. Optimists have you got has Have you guys seen the Latest Optimus videos from Elon by chance. Has he shown any of you guys?

6:17 Haven't seen it's not publishing publicly. I saw the latest Optimus. It would win half of these things already. I it w when you guys see it, it's He's making sick progress and he's not showing it publicly, but I saw it without the sparks coming out of its mid section. No sparks, but I I saw a video Yeah. I said to him, I said, Is this CGI or is this real? And he said, No, this is real. They just sent it to me this morning. And it's like,

6:41 Whoa, Optimus will be the best selling I think product. Yeah, and you know, the hard part as I understand it with these robots is you can train them to do a specific action like run in that race or jump or whatever, but The hard part is when they encounter a condition that they weren't program to expect. And specifically when they have to interact with something in the physical

7:01 That's when it gets tricky, right? Can they do the whole folding laundry or pick something up without breaking it or dropping it or whatever? And Specifically something that they weren't. taught to do.

7:12 Yeah. That's where it gets tricky. There yeah, the fidelity of the Optimus is and its ability to do novel things. You kinda nailed it. I don't want to say any more. You can play with Rockbot though, right, Sax?

7:23 Yeah, oh yeah. You got you got Grockbot shot it, you've been Grockbot maxing. I just reached my Grockbot usage limit and have to upgrade, so Two hundred bucks a month. I've been yeah. It's been really interesting, actually.

7:37 Yeah, what it just does what you tell it to do, right? Like it just gets it done. Yeah. What's great about Grockbot is that it's always on. It's in the cloud. You set up your agents and then They can keep working even when your computer's off or it goes to sleep. the other, you know, agent harnesses that were kind of doing this were like Open Claw or Hermes.

7:56 they were just on your desktop. So if your computer went to sleep they would stop. You have to Do all these Mac minis. And also they were like very hard to use, very power user. This is like by far the easiest. It's still a lot of work to get it set up, working right perfectly or whatever, but it's fun. And it's the easiest it's ever been and you can really see where it's all going. Yeah, it's it's pretty amazing. I told him he should make it multiplayer mode, so like

8:20 You could put two agents in the same room, but then being able to put two people from your team in the same room And then you know, having humans in the loop. It's gonna be such a good idea. That will make this thing go so fricking viral. Yes. If you can just add pecause then, you know.

8:35 What's what's cool about the agents is you actually have an agent swarm. You actually have lots of different agents performing different tasks. And they get good at different things. You know, some people ask why don't you just have one agent It turns out that if you have multiple agents, then the agents develop more context and expertise. So they get more specific. But yeah, you could then use

8:54 Each of those agents is a channel. And invite people to it and then they participate in that. And then they add another person. Yeah. It's yeah, then it could get very, very viral. Yeah, it's a great product. All right. Let's get to work. We got a lot going on. NVIDIA just had a record setting earnings report. I mean they blew the doors off this and uh also Uh, we'll talk a little bit about Salesforce also coming back.

9:18 And the Saspocalypse Ending. Stock was up. NVIDIA's that is nine percent. on huge numbers and even huger guidance ninety six point two billion in revenue In the коорчима.

9:31 Up one hundred six percent year over year. More than double. Wall Street's expectation was ninety two billion. They got it for seventy percent growth next year. That is well above what Wall Street was expecting at forty five percent. So let that sink in.

9:48 The number people are going crazy over. Sixty billion in net profit. That is the most profitable core business quarter of any public company ever, Google and Amazon. They've had higher one off quarters, uh, obviously. Here's her chart. NVIDIA net income and revenue quarterly.

10:03 Just blowing the doors off of it. Stock is up. Skay reaching its all time high again, getting close. Heading into earnings, NVIDIA was only up twelve percent year to date. on par with the S P five hundred, but

10:17 They were blagging the broader Chip index, I guess the headwind shammates that people believe There's competition coming. We'll talk about that. NVIDIA is the world's most valuable company. Five point five trillion polymarket says seventy nine percent chance you're should poly market. A great partner. Poly markets. Seventy nine percent chance NVIDIA ends the year.

10:37 As number one. Six point three million in Volume. In other news. self source up.

10:43 Over twenty percent. on Thursday after they also reported a big quarter revenue up. Eleven point three billion, eleven percent year over year. Uh that was in line with expectations, but they uh beated their adjusted EPS by eighty. percent five ninety versus

10:58 Three dollars and twenty seven. Sense They got a big jump because They our major investors in anthropic

11:08 They raised their full year guidance to forty six billion. You called it. Let's give Chamoff his victory fat. Here he goes. The victory fat. The lap. Schmoth on May fifteenth. What's your take on this? You've been pretty critical of the SAS space in previous episodes. I think the high end of the market where Mark operates, where the large monoliths

11:29 operate is quite safe. What people are finding is hey, hold on a second, this is a lot harder than we thought. It's not like boop boop boop put in a prompt and beep bap boop and all works. It's not how it works. I think we're a little oversold. Now I think this consolidation and the re rating can happen in the opposite direction. So what is the opposite trade? The opposite trade is Who has constructive net dollar retention, who has negative churn that's been really predictable. Which is a way of saying who has the best relationships.

11:57 Those guys I think are positioned to crush. All right. There you have it. Shama, your thoughts on NVIDIA And Salesforce blowing the doors. Off of there.

12:07 Quarterly. Earnings reports. There's a lot there. So maybe we'll start with Salesforce first and then I'll go to NVIDIA. 'Cause I think the NVIDIA one is actually a good segue into talking about the national state of finance. Um I don't know, it was pretty obvious to me in May that

12:25 Salesforce specifically. was meaningfully oversold. I think what I was trying to say there, and maybe I can say more precisely now. Is

12:36 We're getting to the end. Uh this second phase of AI. So if the first phase of AI Were models. And think of like a model as a brain.

12:47 The second phase of AI Is Harnesses. Right, and agents. Which is the

12:54 Analogous equivalent of giving a brain A pair of eyes and hands and a notebook for memory and a keyboard to type things on. So You're sort of taking this primordial object that was really good at Q and A. And you're making it more useful.

13:09 Almost like an autonomous being. But we're starting this next phase soon. At least I see it. in the enterprises that I work with, which is that That's still insufficient.

13:21 And what you now need to do is Make that Autonomous agent. Much more informed. And give it context and allow it to do a job much more intelligently.

13:32 So meaning You take a brain. You give it arms and legs and limbs and eyes and et cetera. But then you have to train it to be a lawyer or be a customer service rep. Or be a sales agent, or what have you.

13:45 And To do that next step. You need a ton of contextual information. And so the people that control that Today the large systems of record.

13:57 What I said before and what I'll double down On now. is that those guys hold an incredibly special place in the ecosystem if they do it right. And I think what you're seeing is Mark is finding

14:12 A way to Play well with the models. Support harnesses, but also build his own and now start to push into this next phase. Yeah.

14:23 His net dollar retention is strong. That's why his revenue is strong. That's why he's guiding up. And that's why the stock's ripped, I think was it like up forty three percent since I said it. I bottomed. I mean it took a twenty percent today just on that. And Freeberg, I think you were in Were you on C and B C or you just on the quarterly call? I went to Benioff's office. For the earnings. set up yesterday. So Dario was there.

14:44 Dario and Mark did their CNBC bit. They set up a studio for the earnings call. on the sixtieth floor, you know, where we've all had dinner up there. And then I did the 'Cause you know

14:57 About a year ago, I think I mentioned this to you, Chamoth. Like we kind of over a weekend built a CRM tool internally. Using uh clawed code and cursor and stuff and kinda spun it together and And stand it up. And we were using it and then it's like, Well, you gotta add this feature and you gotta change this and then account and security and access and Where's the data repository that makes it protected? And there was a lot of kind of back and forth on all the features we ultimately needed to build.

15:23 To make it truly useful and scalable. Meanwhile, we've got competing interests in our company. On where we can build software that's unique to our company, like plant breeding software, which is what we do as kind of our unique advantage as a company, is. Plant breeding. So how do we build a better breeding technology platform? How do we build software that gives the the

15:43 People in the lab and in the greenhouse and the breeders tools. And so we started building all these internal tools and eventually Realize Our time, our efforts, our energy is better spent building the workflows that are unique and create value for our organization uniquely. versus recreating a bunch of software that other people have already made.

16:02 Where's your best ROI, your best return on time spend and your best return on Dollar spent. And it's not on rebuilding a communications tool like Slack. or a messaging tool like Gmail. Or a CRM tool like Salesforce.

16:16 And at the time Mark and I were talking on the phone, he's like You know, hey, try Salesforce, I'll set you up. Come on, do it. And I was like, No, no, no. And then he's like, Yes, yes, yes. And he and he's so persistent. You guys know Mark. He's like, So persistent. Yes. But it's like best sales guy to text with me and kept texting every day. Are we up yet? Are we up yet? Are we up yet? Until the sales guy, I said, okay, go to my office. He goes to my office, he gets set up and we're and then we're done. And then we realized, oh my God, this is actually a much better way for us to do this. So Mark asked me to come and recount that story at the earnings call and talk a little bit about the view on this change. So I do think and I've shared this in the past, I think the horizontal

16:49 platform companies, these tools that are horizontal. CRM works across many different verticals, industry verticals. And Gmail works across many industry verticals and Slack and so on. Excel. No one's gonna go rebuild Excel. The the real values in the software that's unique for your vertical. That's where AI plays a role in building custom workflows and custom software. And so I think that's kind of how I view this the real SaaS pocalypse. It's more of a vertical SAS poclip.

17:15 Which is software that's designed for just one vertical. Hundred percent. Um And that's where I think things get blown up. I totally agree with you. The platform I sell for. I totally agree with you. I totally agree with you. Sax. Let's talk about Mark Benioff. He is Just an incredible salesperson who Just fought through this pocalypse.

17:35 And then figure it out a way. Out of being put in the bucket of Sasero kill. And then just massively um integrating AI into the platform. Maybe you you you've known him for a long time. Maybe you could talk about him as an executive and

17:51 What we can learn from what he just did. In terms of Going from in the market's mine, roadkale. to leading the pack, let's say, in SaaS again. Well, this narrative of the SAS pocalypse was totally overdone. I mean, this whole SAS is dead.

18:06 narrative is just getting shredded today with Salesforce being up over twenty percent. You could go back and look at some of the clips I've been saying now for Months, I do not believe that core systems of record like CRM are gonna get ripped and replaced with something vibe coded. I've been saying that for a long time. Enterprises want certainty, they have compliance, they want Professionally managed software that's been running and debugged for years. I mean, just think about all the bug reports that have been

18:33 filed against Salesforce for over twenty years, right? And that's the hard part. to get right. I mean when I play with all these agents and AI You're dealing with something that's probabilistic and there's so many edge cases. When you're dealing with a core system of record, you just want to know that it works. And the expense of it is low enough that you just don't want to basically

18:51 jeopardize one of your core systems by ripping it out and replacing it with something built in house in a kind of DIY way. So I I just think this whole SAS apocalypse narrative was overplayed. Now At the same time, to your point, Jason. I think Benioff is doing all the right things here, and you could kinda say it's uh

19:09 If you can't beat'em, join'em type approach, which is he made this deal. with anthropic. What is that deal? I mean, first of all, he's gonna be offering anthropics models inside of Salesforce. More importantly, I think, this is really the critical thing. He is integrating

19:25 Salesforce into Claude. He's willing to allow Clawed to be the front end. To have the sort of the primary user relationship. And Claude is now giving me able to access

19:37 All of the data and sales force. And all of the workflows, all the actions that a user could take. So in other words, Benny Off here is willing to risk disintermediation. In order to ride this AI wave. Because he knows it's what the customer ultimately wants.

19:54 You know, you don't want to go into Salesforce or any SaaS application. to write your agents. You wanna create agents In the AI program that you're using. And you want those agents to be able to run across all of your SAS. platform. So

20:09 He's willing to again to give up a big piece of the user relationship in order to make himself more relevant. Now why Is this ultimately good for his business and not bad? Is because like I said. I still think that you need systems of record, you need the AI agents. To basically go to those systems, get

20:26 The data from a canonical source of truth. You just don't want there to be any probabilistic variability around that. And you want AI agents to be able to write back to those systems. And you wanna be able to write back to those workflows. So

20:40 What's happening here is that it's not a rip and rep place. Their layers are getting built. Right, you've got the database layer. Then you've got applications and workflows. And then you've got agents, and then you've kinda got the the AI. uh user interface and

20:56 Benny off is saying that the AI is now the user interface. He's basically Acknowledging that he's leaning into it. Now here's the thing. I talked to him this morning actually and and a point he Brought with me.

21:07 That I think is underestimated. is that he says there's a lot of trap value in Salesforce, meaning We know it's got this incredibly broad rich platform with tons of functionality. The average user's never gonna find all those things. But the agent will.

21:21 So think about all the cases where now the agent is gonna go to the user and say, Hey, I just saw That There are these actions you could take in Salesforce that seem to line up With what you're telling me to do, do you want me to do this? And the user's gonna say yes.

21:36 Which they codify Salesforce. As the system of record, yes, Sachs. Yes, exactly. Because now th think about the agent as A power user of Salesforce that knows how to use Salesforce. Perfectly. You don't necessarily need to hire this like

21:50 team of highly priced consultants. To figure out Salesforce. The agent knows how to do it, so can unlock The full value of Salesforce. And all these actions, and then after you develop trust.

22:01 And your agent You the user are just gonna s click the always allow button. And now the agent can basically tap the full capabilities of Salesforce. So I mean that's where this is headed, but now it raises the question, okay, so how do SaaS applications play into this AI and agent wave.

22:18 You have to have great APIs and you have to have a great CLI that command line interface, which is how the agents are gonna relate to the SaaS tools. I think in the past the way that most SaaS product's thought. They spent a lot of time on their user interface and now they really gotta think about The agent interface, not just user interface.

22:37 You have to build the best agent interface. And you've got to I think relax the idea that you're gonna fully control the customer relationship. You have to think of agents. Created by the AI companies.

22:50 as being an extension of your platform and not feel threatened that you're losing the customer relationship. If you can do all those things to become a source of truth. In a system of record, then you've got a big opportunity. I I gotta say he's like one of the most underestimated and underappreciated Product and sales executives in our industry, because I was talking to him when we were at Davosach about. Slack and he was like, Tell me about what you're doing and I was like, Listen.

23:15 You have all my data. I can't get my data. My team wants to move off Slack. They want to use this open source product specifically so I can get All this information. He again to your point, Freeberg, put me on with the sales team, and now I have complete

23:28 got access to our Slack. And they built a product called Slack Today, which they've been slowly rolling out. And it does the promise of open claw. And what Sam did by buying out the founder of Open Claw.

23:40 Right after he bought Open claws founder, Peter, and he started working at uh open AI. Just Open claw just faded like

23:48 No more innovation. Uh, and I'm I'm not trying to say this to say Sam did something nefarious or That open clause. you know, terrible or anything, but they just lost their edge. And now The version of Slack today is like a seven out of ten, and it's getting like ten percent better every couple of weeks, I'm noticing.

24:07 So he's gonna do a parallel link sacks. He's gonna have his own agents. And he's gonna let you come in with your agents. His agents might be a little bit behind, but you're also gonna get those agents for free inside of Salesforce. It's like a a two ways to win. Yeah. I mean, look, I think I think that SaaS products can offer their own agents and they can offer their own AI and co pilots and all that. But I think the reality is is that most of the action with agents

24:33 is gonna happen outside those products and simply wanna interact. With those products. and basically get the data from them, use them as the System of record as the source of truth. And then write actions back to them when appropriate.

24:47 And I just think that founders should lean into that trend instead of fighting it. 'Cause if you fight to stay in control and say that Only our agents are the way to interact with our system, then people will just move to They'll leave. So you are you long?

25:00 Vertical SAS or are you short it like Freeberg and I are? I think it's specific to the company and what its motes are and how good a system of record is and all those kinds of things. Well, is no, I don't think Vertical SaaS has a system of record. I don't think that's what they do. I think they're workflows. This is the key point where these horizontal Monolithic companies like Salesforce. Are just unique.

25:21 Work day. Oracle with respect to their GL. It's just very difficult S A P IFS, it's very difficult to see a path where you can replicate these businesses and they become the repository and the single source of truth, as you said. But vertical SaaS is workflows and it's a process. And I just wonder. What survives.

25:40 Well, I look, I think it's a it's a good question, and I think it's case by case, but look, just a few months ago, everyone was saying that horizontal SAS wasn't gonna survive. And one of Leopold's major positions in that fund was just short. All these SaaS products, including Salesforce. And what we've seen is that has turned out to be wrong or or totally over. I don't know that he understood the difference between vertical and horizontal SAS because that was a funding short problem, meaning

26:06 He had to go to the big stocks. In order to be able to short enough. to be able to get the leverage that he wanted. So I think He may have just worked backwards from his own mental narrative to make it all sound correct. But I think that's

26:20 It was a leverage trap where he's like, I need to be really Massively net long these other names. And his prime broker's like, Well You gotta find shorts, liquid shorts. And he's like, Okay, Adobe and Salesforce. Well, but look, I mean, to be fair, I think that was the dominant narrative as of just a few months ago with SaaSpocalypse and Bennyoff stock was getting hammered by the market. I mean down fifty. Now it's up back twenty.

26:43 So I think a lot of people were just indiscriminately selling all SaaS. And I think That if I had to say there's like one takeaway from the news today is that I think simple extrapolations of the future based on These trends don't work out, right? The simple extrapolation here was AI agents can code, therefore all software is going to zero. That was

27:06 The simplistic extrapolation. Now what we're seeing is No, actually There are certain systems of record that are extremely compatible and complementary to AI agents and if they're positioned right.

27:18 by their founders they can lead into this trend. And by the way, I think the job loss narrative is another one of those simplistic extrapolations. What is the the job loss narrative is Now AI can do knowledge work, therefore knowledge workers are all gonna lose their jobs. It completely ignores the fact that there's ways for knowledge workers to take advantage of the tools.

27:35 And lean into it. So the same way that Benioff is taking advantage of the agent trend. Knowledge workers are taking advantage of it and they're gonna be able to lean into it. If you adopt the technology, you survive. If you don't, you die. I mean it's pretty pretty straightforward. I just wanted to also point out with NVIDIA's Incredible results. Two things that happen very quietly. Um, and Jensen is clearly open source maxing now. He bought Hugging Face.

27:59 For twelve billion. And he did like one of these aqua hire deals with Poolside. For six billion. Total about twenty billion in um twenty billion in acquisitions which is

28:11 far less than one percent of the market cap. of NVIDIA and thank God you can do M and A again in this country. But he's now Owning the distribution layer for open source. Uh, if you don't know poolside, they make the uh

28:26 Coding model Laguna. So now NVIDIA has The place where developers and hackers go to I don't I don't think that's what went over. My understanding is that the'cause Jason Warner tweeted this morning

28:43 I I I was confused by this because I They th there could be two things that they're buying. The a hundred engineers that are going over to NVIDIA, they could be working on uh what Poolsite has, which is effectively A version of cursor And Cloud Code.

28:59 That runs, you know, on prem, that runs in a open weight. No, th then they also have a model. What I'm saying is they have a model and then they also have this agent harness that that you can direct a coding. So I don't it wasn't clear to me in the announcement. I didn't read it carefully. Yeah. What it is that they bought. I think we're kind of burying the lead here, by the way. It's like look, they're reportedly doing these deals with Poolside and Hugging Face. And those are big open source acquisitions. If the reporting is true.

29:24 But look, here is the the lead today, I think. Is that first of all, NVIDIA had a blowout quarter, doing over a hundred percent year over year. A billion a day in revenue now. Yeah, almost a hundred billion in revenue just for the quarter, sixty billion dollars. of profit. Seventy five percent gross margins. I mean, exclud items. This was the most

29:46 profit ever generated by a company. Yes. In history. Jake out, let me just underscore what you said in the intro. Yeah. Which is Really, I think the reason why the stock is up eight percent today is not just the great quarter, but the fact that they guided to seventy percent growth next year, whereas the street was only expecting

30:03 Around forty five percent. So that's pretty amazing. And that seventy percent number would have been higher, but they said they were supply constraints. Yes. So you know what what is the takeaway, I think, for the larger market here? It is that the AI boom is continuing. The other narrative that's getting shredded today is that this AI CapEx

30:20 Is a bubble. It's basically Gonna end very soon. And what NVIDIA is basically saying with its numbers and forecasts is actually

30:29 This AI capex is gonna continue. Well into the future. It's got real legs. Mm-hmm. The amazing thing is that

30:38 After these numbers, even despite the eight percent bump. NVIDIA is only trading at twelve times earnings. Yes. And that reason is People think

30:47 That competition, obviously cerebrus and The point I was gonna make earlier. I think Jensen is going all in on open source. Based on these two

30:57 acquisitions, hugging face and pull side. And I think Sam Altman poked the tiger. If you look At what he did, he had done that huge hundred billion dollar deal with NVIDIA back in twenty twenty five. And then he announced the AMD deal. And Jensen was clearly not pleased about that, and he

31:13 Talked about right after Sam kind of did this announcement that he's gonna make his own inference chest. Jalapeno. Jalapeno and that he was gonna do the deal with AMD. Then Jensen came out and was like, Well, by the way, we don't actually have to do these investments in open AI. And I think He's speed running open source, and you're gonna be able to buy from NVIDIA.

31:33 Next year, just your entire stack, he is going for it. He is going. to own open source. And That is a really interesting moment in time for us to look at because we were sitting here six months ago, twelve months ago, oh, open source would never catch up. He's doing an open source self-driving project, and now he owns Hugging Face, the leading open source indexer where everybody goes to try the new models. I think this is a

31:56 This is actually the huge story. I think the generalized takeaway should be That You're gonna see all of these businesses. Converge. Mm.

32:07 And they're all going to be competing with each other in every which way possible. So this idea that you have this very delineated separation of customer and supplier, I think is melting away. Nvidia still relies meaningfully On the hyper scalers for their revenue, I think it was twenty four billion dollars in the quarter. But They now have built up

32:28 Ніоклауд Бизнес. That was equivalent. Which is incredible. Right. Yes.

32:33 And I think what you're gonna see is as more people try to compete with them. So now your customers, the hyperscalers are saying we're gonna spin our own silicon. It's completely appropriate for NVIDIA to say, Well, we're gonna spin our own models. They do that. And then you're gonna see them go up the stack and host the model. Then you're gonna see them supply APIs and supply inference, and they're gonna be a cloud provider. And so to your point, Jason I think the right way to think about it is

32:57 In business one point oh it's like you used to be like a CapEx business, right? And people would say, Okay, what's your return on investment? Or you'd be a software business and you're like, Okay, what's your OpEx, right? And what's your return on investment? It's all melting together.

33:11 Every company's gonna do everything. You're gonna look at these big companies in five years. They're all gonna have their own cloud. They're all gonna have their own models, they're all gonna have their own silicon, they're all gonna have their own data centers. Soup to nuts, they're gonna go top to bottom. And then it's gonna be about which is better. And that I think is actually better for the broader ecosystem. It's better for all of us.

33:31 Absolutely. All right, let's keep moving through the docket. Besson's new bond strategy got criticized by his mentor, Stan Drucken Miller. Last week. thirty year treasury. hit a nineteen year high. Five point three percent. You've been talking about this a whole bunch, Freeberg, so I'm interested to get your take on it.

33:47 Uh in response, Besson doubled the Treasury Department's elongated bond buybacks from two billion to four billion on August. Nineteen. CNBC reported Beston is considering ramping up on buying, and uh Fox Business said he wants to put the fear of God into traders that are shorting long dated. Bond. So a lot of intervention Ism going on here. Stan Drucken Miller.

34:08 Besson's former mentor published an op ed in the Wall Street Journal opposing his plan. His main point was Besson is wrong. For trying to manipulate prices rather than fixing the core reason yields are rising. America has a spending problem. We've talked about it. Over and over here, forty trillion dollars, no more doge.

34:27 No more cutting costs, and obviously we got a war that's quite expensive. Every five months, Freeberg, I think you said last episode, we add a trillion, so we're adding two point five trillion a year. We'll add ten trillion during this. Second Uh Trump. Term.

34:41 Your thoughts on What's going on here, Freeberg, in terms of the bond. market and bestant. And Drack and Miller going back and forth. Shamath you and I can also talk about Using AI to write pieces.

34:54 Right, your thesis. Yeah. I'll start with the relationship as you highlighted, Bessant And Drock and Miller work closely together and are close and respect each other and Kevin Warch in a similar position. He was working with Drucken Miller the last number of years in his office every day. They're extremely close.

35:14 This is a triumvirate. That I don't think in history you've had three people who are so close. in these positions. One leading in kind of market activity with drug. One running the treasury and the other one running the Fed. It's it's pretty unprecedented.

35:29 To have this sort of closeness. in those positions. I and you know, uh I think that's What's that? Yeah, right. Caesar. The triumphant.

35:41 Who's Caesar, who's Pompey, and who's Crassus. I'm gonna leave that to them to debate, but uh if you pull up the yield curve from uh Covet era. I think it's worth just taking a look at the treasury yield curve. So this shows Depending on the duration. Is it a one month or a thirty year treasury bond? So across that whole time duration. What's the yield? You know, how much does the federal government have to pay in interest to get people to loan them money for that duration? And so this is uh right uh around covet era, kind of twenty twenty.

36:09 You can see that because interest rates were low and the inflationary effects of stimulus that came about during COVID. had not yet hit the market. We were Looking at sub half a percent, sub a quarter percent, all the way out to the three year and five year.

36:23 And then a slight climb up where you could actually get thirty year treasuries at one point seven percent. Again, going back in history, it's always easy to rewrite history. The federal government should have rolled all of its debt Into thirty years at this point. But The debt is balanced across this treasury curve.

36:38 So let's look at where the treasury yield curve is today. So this is what is the market charging the federal government. To loan it money to pay its bills. And on the low end of the treasury curve. You're looking at just under four percent. So for the federal government to borrow money for one month.

36:53 They have to pay a three point eight percent Vig. Uh to the lenders for that money. And if you go out the thirty year Is now at five point two percent. So it is very expensive now.

37:05 to borrow money if you're the US federal government. And the reason is persistent inflation, I would argue, because of excess government spending on social programs and other things. And the big problem at this point Is the federal government is spending so much If the federal government were to cut spending aggressively,

37:23 The argument and the concern is it would hit unemployment. And it would cause a recession. Because the federal government is such an intricate part of the economy. Now that's the argument. But It's causing inflation.

37:34 And it is causing deficit spending. So this year the deficit will be roughly call it two trillion Dollars. And as a result, the market is saying we're worried about the US fiscal solvency over the long run, or there's a higher risk.

37:50 As a result, we're gonna charge you a higher interest, five point two percent on the third year. Now What does this mean for the federal government? Well, today the federal government's average cost of debt is three point four percent. That's what we're paying on interest on average on the forty trillion dollars of debt. that the federal government has outstanding.

38:06 For every one percent change. In the interest rate. The US government. has to pay one point two five percent of gdp

38:16 in excess interest each year One point two five percent of GDP In interest each year. For that one percent change in the interest rate. And we're now looking at a thirty yard five point two.

38:28 And a short term rate over four. So The federal government has a problem because over the next twelve months They have to refinance. Ten trillion dollars of debt.

38:38 That debt is coming to you. those bonds are now due, they have to pay the principal back to the bondholders. And they gotta go back to the treasury market. and sell more treasuries to borrow more money to refinance. So the borrowing cost now is gonna climb up. And when that borrowing cost climbs up, the federal government's

38:53 Burn goes up. And the fiscal deficit goes up. So my theory and my argument on this is there is no action that Besson can take. That's actually gonna have a meaningful effect. On the long end of the curve. We have fundamental fiscal spending.

39:08 problem with the federal government right now. And I think that The note that Drock wrote, whether AI wrote it or he wrote it, it doesn't matter. The point of the note is correct. And the note is meant to provide cover.

39:19 To Bessant, he is saying it is not Besant's fault or Besant's responsibility. To solve the yield curve problem. It is congress's responsibility. It is the president's responsibility. It is a responsibility Of the holders of the budget and the accounts.

39:34 that should stand up and say, We are going to cut spending because if we don't cut spending There is going to be a spiral, which we are now going to face over the next twelve months, as we have to refinance$10 trillion of debt. So Bessant's doing his job as Treasury Secretary. He's saying, I'm going to market. I'm gonna buy treasuries, I'm gonna try and lower it. But he only has maximum, maximum, maximum a trillion dollars he could use.

39:54 To buy Yeah. He's still gotta go. So Ten trillion dollars of treasuries in the next twelve months.

40:00 Ken Trillian, he's got a sell. So even if he maxed out his buying authority in the near term. That's only a trillion of buying, and then he's got to turn around and sell ten. So the market is the market is and Drugs Note is coverage.

40:12 for Bessant and it's pointing responsibility back to Congress. Back to the president to say guys We have to solve this deficit problem. So is this like K Fay performative between the two of them? And they're kinda like supporting each other as you don't know. I don't think I don't think they're allowed to talk.

40:27 I don't think they do talk. I don't think that Droks allowed to talk to Kevin or I don't think any of them are allowed to talk to each other. So I don't think that's happening. But I think that Druck Is sending his signal. to the market and saying, guys, this is not Besson's responsibility. Got it. The burden's not on his shoulder. He can't be Atlas. He can't lift this earth.

40:42 He can't solve this problem. You guys have to act. I think it's coverage for Bassett. Got it. Okay. That's what I that's what I was sort of getting at. Chemoth, what's your take here on What's gonna happen going forward.

40:54 You know. We're past five percent. Does this break? What does it do to uh interest rate cuts? And how bad could this get if we can't get it under control? The tactical answer to your the question that you asked before is why is he in the market buying bonds? It's called yield curve suppression. Meaning when you buy bonds, you

41:10 bit up the prices and the implied yields go down, which allows Scott to then finance at a lower Boring costs because then if Yields are five point one versus five point three, and then now you're issuing bonds, they're marked against that five point one

41:25 print versus five point three. So it the yield suppression is trying to help Work talked about, which is just this refinancing Tsunami. That is coming. Okay, but look just

41:37 Just take a step back for a second. I think the very big issue is that Congress is ultimately responsible for spending. Congress is Completely unable to

41:48 to do anything to get These budget deficits under control. It is consistent it's not a democrat nor a republican problem. Із конгреснул проблем, міні болт са.

42:03 Consistently Spend way more. Then they should. So you have the debt growing at seven percent and you have Gd P between, you know, two and four percent. So that's a recipe for disaster.

42:17 What Drock said in that note is you have to cut entitlements. He's probably right. The question is when And Who will

42:26 Force The United States To confront this issue. Who will force the United States Congress to confront the issue? And what he is saying. is the bond market is gonna start to do this.

42:37 Because that single price is the true reflection of The good faith and trust in the United States. And as that Yield goes up, the very simple rubric is trust is going down.

42:51 Yield goes up, trust goes down. The other thing that I would say is this is happening at an incredibly awkward moment. Which is that we are Supposed to be in the middle. Of an enormous financial build out to support AI.

43:06 And if you go all the way back like a hundred years. You know The industrial revolution, the grand bargain All of this stuff. The United States government was the balance sheet.

43:16 Right, they are the ones that were able to step it. And unfortunately, because if it's financial situation, the US government is not able to do that. That's why Thank God we have companies like NVIDIA and Google and Microsoft and Meta. And Amazon who take on that burden. And so y I just wanted to tie to this other thing because there's so much chirping, by the way.

43:38 On the internet about the balance sheet of NVIDIA and blah blah blah. And I think people completely miss that these guys are putting the entire US economy on their back. A hundred years ago it would have been the US government that did this. But the US government is not in a position to do it because Congress cannot get their act together on spending. The president. Actually has done.

43:58 Something pretty incredible, which is on the tail end of those trade deals, if you guys remember. He was able to find two trillion dollars to pump into the US economy to support this build up. But the practical reality is that two trillion Comes from other nation states. And their processes are long and meandering.

44:17 So you have this situation where all this money has to be invested. It should be backstop by the US government. It's not in a financial situation to do so. The president has done some magic to try to relieve it in the short term. But it's only a short term bandage. The real solution, as Freeberg says, is Congress needs to come together and realize that they must now fix this problem because if

44:40 USІ Yolds If you see the thirty, you're at six percent. It is the beginning of a death spiral. It's not gonna be immediate. Okay, so don't freak out. But it is the beginning of some extreme pain, and that pain will last

44:54 Years. And the only thing that solves it now is Getting the budget. Under control, which is a congressional акт. It must happen.

45:04 Whether it's this year or the next year, it just has to happen. Sex. The president was quite vocal about cutting costs early on in the presidency, but we haven't heard much from the commander in chief about this. Is the issue that no politician can touch. cutting spending it's just too toxic because Trump's in his Final term. He's lame duck.

45:24 By definition, right? Um But He hasn't been vocal about this. And is it just too radioactive for anybody in politics? And you got to spend a little time. You dipped your toe there in in DC. Is it just too toxic for anybody to take on spending cuts? He sent Elon in there.

45:44 That was You know, pretty spicy and it's obviously Um not occurring now. We're not cutting things massively and in cra in fact this the debt's going faster than it had started a year ago. So what's your thoughts here, Sachs? Give maybe you can

46:00 Move it out from just Trump. Yeah, look, part of it is it is a tragedy of the commons, meaning you've got four hundred and thirty five members of the House, a hundred senators, and they all get a vote. And then you've got the president and no one of them controls the spending. In fact, the spending, the power of the purse originates in the house and then goes from there. So it is very, very hard to control spending when you have so many people weighing in. If it was just you know, a couple of people getting together in a room and sorting this out, they probably could do it, but when so many people

46:27 Have an incentive. to basically protect their programs, it gets very, very hard. So that's the tragedy of the commons part of it. And The reality is the president doesn't have a line item veto. It'd be great if he did.

46:40 He doesn't have The powers constitutionally. To completely rein this in. Yeah, despite what the Resistance liberals say he's not a king. I mean, he doesn't have those kinds of powers. That's basically the heart of the problem.

46:53 And you're right, he did back Doge to the hilt. He's the only president to ever back something like that. And what happened? Elon got to the point of cutting one agency or one sub agency And the hysteria was so great that they accused him of killing millions of Children was total nonsense.

47:10 But Tesla dealerships were getting firebombed. And that's the other piece of this is How do you make reform how do you reform spending? How do you rein it in? When the media Isn't on your side and is not willing to report this stuff accurately. That's the worst part of it. I mean, the media.

47:26 They don't have an incentive politically to engage in log rolling. But they do absolutely nothing to report the story accurately. I mean just think about how the media was reacting to all of that. So it's really a difficult problem. When you start off with the fact that no one person controls it.

47:42 You know, it really is. This tragedy of the comments, and then you don't have the media. Basically doing a good job reporting this accurately. So I you know, I don't know how we get reform on this. And then let me just say that if if the Republicans lose control of Congress, I don't think that's gonna make it better because you see now

47:59 that the political energy in the Democrat party is all towards these massive new spending programs that the DSA wants. So You know, if you vote for quote unquote change by voting the democrats in. That's not gonna help either. Because again, they just want more and more spending.

48:15 So I don't know what the solution to this is. Freebird, give us a timeline here. Obviously the Republicans love to cut Taxes Um, and the democrats love to increase spending. And here we are, uh

48:27 This has not gotten better. through three or four presidents. The last person who did this was, I guess, Clinton balanced the budget, but This has been getting worse and worse. At some point. We're all in agreement this is gonna come to do, and we're gonna have to have some austerity measures. When does that

48:45 hit in your mind is there a breaking point In terms of interest to GDP Uh maybe the people on the other side just saying, Hey, I want twelve percent. You you guys have bad debt. I want twelve percent on it, and we just say We can't pay twelve percent and we just have to go into full on austerity measures. Is there a breaking point?

49:05 If so, when? Well, the question is what does it break to? We As a democracy Have

49:14 This recursive solution. Which is as the people feel some sort of pain, they react With a vote. This goes. back to this point about do we break for socialism? Because

49:30 What ends up happening post the mid terms. So I think sometime between twenty six and the election cycle and twenty eight. The inflation problem. And remember the inflation problem is fundamentally rooted in government spending. So deficit spending it's correlated very nicely

49:47 With the cost of housing. With the cost of health care, with the cost of education. And with the cost of everything else. So the more the government is spending on various things, the the more expensive things get.

50:00 And so inflation is persistent because what we thought were temporary emergency stimulus measures during Covid. very quickly. And became persistent spending cycles. You know, if we went back to twenty nineteen.

50:13 We would actually have a budget surplus right now as a country. Our economy has grown so much Since twenty nineteen. That if we had the same spending levels as we had in twenty nineteen, Our federal government would be making a profit paying down the debt. And the reality is we've

50:28 taken this emergency spending And made it a permanent spending. We did the same thing, by the way, after the global financial crisis in two thousand eight. There were some crazy stimulus things that happened and we persisted that spending. And so

50:42 The question Jake Hell is really like what happens next. So if the inflation remains high. People's affordability continues to go low. they're gonna vote for something that's gonna give them a solution. And I don't see a political message winning.

50:56 That says the federal government will now spend less. We're gonna cut a bunch of stuff. So I worry that the one way solution here. Is something that is very damaging to individual liberties, to A lot of the rights, a lot of the things that make a free market work.

51:13 And that is some of these more kind of socialist principles and socialist candidates. I think that's kind of the breaking point. So I think it's it's it's more of like a you know, spectrum and then the reaction during that kind of transition phase, twenty six to twenty eight, can be negative. Then the next big thing is gonna happen around twenty thirty to twenty thirty-two. And that's really where social security doesn't have any money to pay anymore. I think during that era is also when a lot of the states are gonna become bankrupt.

51:38 we're not gonna be able to pay their obligations and when the states can't pay their obligations Around twenty thirty to twenty thirty two. You're gonna have both the social security bailout and restructuring as well as the state bailouts and restructuring. And that might be the time that all of this stuff breaks. Wow. And we so you're saying we'll see Munies

51:55 Uh yeah, and people will default on their debt in the States. That would be cataclysmic to have to bail out something like California. Because the obligations on the unfunded pensions in the States are so significant and Not to mention just the debts but I mean look, California's got tens of billions of dollars it's spent on this stupid f railway. That goes nowhere where there's no fing tracks. And they're talking about it's the political world to even stop that. It'd be the easiest cut in the world. Like just think about the idiocy. Like no one is saying we shouldn't do this. Why is no one saying we shouldn't do this? That's what I'm saying about the media.

52:28 Officially anybody who is in favor of a railway to nowhere should just be shamed out of existence for a train from San Francisco to Fresno that costs more than an airline ticket. It's so idiotic. It's like the movie Don't Look Up, like Look Up. This thing is absolutely ridiculous. Turn this thing off. Why is no one even just saying Turn it off.

52:50 It tells you everything you need to know. Florida and they seem to figure out how to do it at a fraction of the price. So like, what are we even talking about here? Like private industry, if this was a good idea. would have built it. Yes, Friedburn, private industry would see an opportunity and they would have built it. There is no opportunity across the board. These government programs

53:10 Cause we're going to be able to do Then good. When the government intervenes in underwriting student loans and gives everyone a loan. Administrative costs went up by six x and tuition skyrocketed eight percent a year. Compounding for thirty

53:25 Yours. Because the government said we'll underwrite any student loan. The same with housing, and now no young people can afford a house. The same with health care. where they said we'll pay people to stay home and not work

53:38 to take care of people And we won't check on whether or not they're actually taking care of people. And the cost of healthcare skyrocketed. You go across every one of these government programs, and every one of them has the adverse effect. Of driving up costs and inflating everything. We need a route of inflation in this country.

53:56 The core root of it. Is government spending. And the reason we are going to end up becoming a socialist country It's because we aren't reining in the government spending and looking it in the mirror and saying, guys This is idiotic.

54:08 What are we doing? We need to now the markets, to Maf's point. Are telling us This is idiotic. We are not gonna underwrite this bullshit anymore.

54:16 And We need to have to your point about media sacks. A hundred Nick Shirley's sixty minutes, whoever it is to just Say hey this spending, this fraud is not acceptable, and we need to send people in. To go recapture that money.

54:30 This is like we're burning money that we don't know. The fraud is layer one. There's like eighteen layers to this. Layer one is fraud. Yes, of course. You know. And given given the the tragedy of the commons, the structural nature of it, that there's no one person who's in control of it. You need massive public pressure to control it, and there's none of that. And there's no effort to create that public pressure by the mainstream media. So it's like how do you even get out of this? And I don't think it happens that way. It has to be an acute moment.

54:57 Yeah. Yeah, you're saying there has to be a crisis and then people react, but then to Friedberg's point We may get socialism because people may not connect what the real causes of the crisis are. No, that's my question for you. No, socialism is much more likely when, you know, a hundred years ago when these things are less interconnected. America can't decide to do that. You understand?

55:17 Why? Because all of our debt. is interconnected to Domestic actors, international actors, it's not a decision. There is no button you can push to do that. And the reason is you would go bankrupt overnight. So I think the reality is that we will hit some kind of a fiscal wall. Something will get terribly broken.

55:37 And like in covid. Or liking GFC. Or like in nine eleven. Those are the only moments where you can have structural changes in expectations. The structural changes

55:49 That have had the most impact on our lives. Happened in these acute moments. In nine eleven, in GF C and in Cobra. Yeah, and every one of them it ended up becoming a never let a crisis go to waste moment where it always argued in favor of some big power ground by the government. Okay, so you think about like affordability of houses, right? That depends on mortgage rates. Thirty year mortgage right now, I'm looking at the average is six point Seven, three percent, a little under seven percent.

56:18 It's about a hundred and fifty basis points. above the thirty year treasury, right? So do you think the average Higher spending means higher treasury rates, which means higher mortgage rates.

56:33 And that leads you to not be able to afford. the same level of house that you would because Your monthly payment's much higher. I mean, do people connect those dots about what's happening? No. No, but people want to blame someone.

56:47 Every time there's a crisis, this group, even us, when we get together on a podcast, Something bad happens. We always have this question Who is to blame? It's the first thing a human does. Yeah, exactly. No, I mean that's the human brain. That's how it works. It's like there's some problem Who do we blame? That's the first thing to think about.

57:08 You you don't think you don't think objectively what's the solution to the problem, you think who do I blame? That's the first thing you want to do. And then The question is, when mortgage rates go up, who do you blame? The current president, my congressman, blah blah blah, reelect someone.

57:22 That's the response. And the person that shows up And says, I'm gonna give you free housing, I'm gonna give you a free bus, I'm gonna give you free mortgages, I'm gonna take away the the land from the landlord. And give it to you. You vote for that person.

57:34 So I do worry that the m the kind of mechanistic Response To what you're describing, Sachs, which is a very Problemic. situation for people is the lack of affordability of being able to get a home.

57:47 Is give the keys of the kingdom over to someone that's gonna put more fuel On the fire. And the fire is government spending. And the fuel is more government spending to try and quote solve a problem that's caused

57:59 By the fire. And I think that's really where I worry about this. So I think I know how we can blame Dario. Okay. Circle it around. What do you get? Here's the thing. Our only hope. is AI, right? Because only AI can create the exponential growth necessary.

58:16 Yes. Make our economy grow big enough. We can grow that. We can grow out of that problem. Yes. And if we hold back AI by creating some new regulatory apparatus. Yes. That takes years to approve new model releases then we're cooked. I blame Dario and Canada.

58:32 And Putin. Those are the those are the three people who are working on the choking rechoking Dario. Come to our summit. No, seriously, come to our own summit. Listen, I wanna just people we are kinda counting on AI as the Deus ex machina. To grow our way out of this thing. And we really need, I mean

58:54 We need more quarters like NVIDIA and Salesforce just posted. Like we need that to happen for like ten years. This takes to grow our way out of this thing. People migrate around the country or to other countries. as a way to vote against out of control spending. I lived in New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco.

59:15 I did not appreciate How evil the socialist and limousine liberals were until I got to Texas. After a couple of years in Texas, I have seen What? having affordable homes does

59:29 to A family, an individual. You have people in those cities who are so miserable because they can't afford a home They're paying exorbitant rents and these People who already own their

59:41 You know, Victorian homes, etcetera, in San Francisco. Refuse to build. And then in the great state of Texas. If you look at this chart. Housing prices since the twenty twenty

59:52 to peak. In Austin are down, down, not up, sacks, down. twenty Севен процент. Since March of twenty twenty.

1:00:02 Twenty five percent. It can be done. You need to have leadership that says Хаузін і пріоріті. Therefore, we're gonna let you build more houses. It's being done in Texas.

1:00:15 In Florida. Those Conservative. Let the free market work. Environment

1:00:21 Let them build the Bright Line. They have high speed trains going a hundred and twenty five motherfu Uh miles per hour. Because they let and they got out of the way and let Private industry

1:00:34 Figure out how to build high sprains. This is a distinct issue in certain groups where they want to stop. progress. They are deselling the creation of homes. And when you get homes People feel great about their lives. People in Texas are fing happy. That they have a home for two hundred fifty thousand dollars. They're everywhere, these things can be solved. It just takes leadership. And that's what we don't have is leaders saying enough already, we're just gonna let people build more houses. All right. Let's keep moving through the docket. I love a good J Cal polemical.

1:01:04 I'm just f pissed off about it because you know like some ways, but You know, we're dancing around here. Who's gonna be the leader who will say did you practice that before? No, I didn't practice it. I'm just gonna go to you at the top of your head. Yeah. Well, actually I I hired Sax as writer to do some uh punch ups for me, but putting on the side. It is Obviously a leadership issue. That's too expensive. Sure. I'm gonna watch.

1:01:33 Let's do a little side quest here. What did you think of Drucken Miller? writing his piece with AI. And getting busted and then the Wall Street Journal saying, Hey, it's totally fine. I thought that it was the left that virtue signaled. But I I actually think it's the class of people that virtue signal. Okay, here we go. And

1:01:50 They judge and they're judgmental and They can't see the forest from the trees. And this is probably they're like the loudest chirpers in the peanut gallery. Stan Drucken Miller is the most incredible investor of our generation. Maybe sorry, maybe like top three or four. He's up there, yeah. And so just shut the f up and read what he says. And you have an opinion and you're like, Oh my God, he has an M dash. Oh my God, he used the AI flourish. It's like you're missing the script.

1:02:18 He's telling you what's about to happen. Sachs, do you agree? You think that the opinion pieces in the Wall Street Journal, New York Times should be written by AI, not the person who puts their name on? It's still written by him. He didn't say it was written by him. He's he admitted it's a hundred percent. He prompts it? He shapes it, he guides it. Yeah, a more precise way of putting it is the take is his.

1:02:40 And then he uses the AI to help him write it. Look, I don't get all the pearl clutching about this. I mean, you gotta be pretty dumb these days not to use AI to help you write. And he's definitely not dumb. This is his opinion, it's his take, it's consistent with everything he's been saying. In the past for decades, and in fact the P sites

1:03:00 And he's right. Yeah, the piece mentions that many times in the past he's waited in on this. clearly came from his mind and he uses the eye to help him write it.

1:03:11 The morons on X should be like, Wait a minute, how does this affect my company? How does it affect my portfolio? How will it affect my four one K? What will it do to my parents' retirements? How should I think about hedging this? Instead of that conversation. All of you people were like, Oh my God, he had he was AI. I think how do you have a skill as a problem? I do think it's kind of the lip syncing of uh writing as a writer. I find it offensive to like let the system Give your entire opinion. As opposed to using it for research, which is totally fine. Use it for proofreading, totally fine. But to me, it feels like I went to see Adele and she's lip syncing. I really want to hear him. Only go to the guys that use do hand calculations. No, here's the thing. I I would rather he said Adele. Don't use an Excel spreadsheet. I don't trust those guys. I only trust the guys that do the calculations by that.

1:04:03 But if you were going to give your opinion and it's not written by you, to me. That is disappointing. That's not disclosed. I think it's a much higher standard to say, I'm gonna write this in my own voice. Sure, I could have somebody who's a ghostwriter help me polish it. I could check my grammar with it, I could do research with it. Those are all the valid uses. But I don't like this idea. That you're gonna write something in AI and then I read it and I don't know, that to me feels icky and it feels insincere. I would prefer people just say up front, I didn't write this, but these are I'm kind of in agreement with what the AI magic guessing word box said. I find it personally offensive. Yeah. Interesting opinion. May I respond?

1:04:42 Sure. I was trying to get you a hit. You go ahead. Yeah. Go ahead. What do you think is the difference between that concept and having artists be required to disclose whether or not they used Adobe Photoshop and the very specific filters that they used in Photoshop. Or DJs that use specific software to use create electronic music as opposed to doing

1:05:03 Analog recordings of the music by hand with guitars. T for people that, for example, are using Microsoft Excel to create spreadsheets as opposed to writing it all down. Do I have to disclose that I used Excel? Or that I used a calculator, or that I used a synthesizer, or that I used A photoshop as opposed to doing it in an analog way. At the end of the day

1:05:24 Digital tools for creativity and creative output. Are done in parallel with the human ingenuity. And the human craft and the human creativity Is expressed magnified and in many cases improved. With

1:05:36 Digital tools. And the definition of is someone quote using AI is as nebulous as the rest of those, which is am I using quote AI. to improve my spelling. to improve my grammar, to create novel sentences from scratch, to create novel paragraphs from scratch.

1:05:51 At the end of the day, if I give the AI a whole bunch of inputs take the outputs and edit that output. Am I quote using AI? This is I think one of the fundamental issues is we treat AI as the standalone simple kind of intelligence replacement system. And the heuristic is not accurate with respect to how humans actually use it.

1:06:09 And how it is like all other tools. A magnification of human creativity, ingenuity, and potential. Go ahead. The reason is the expectation of the reader. The reader has a high expectation, and this is an important issue. And the reason why people were so disappointed in this

1:06:24 in a very large way. It was not because they're virtual signaling, it's because they actually care about Stan's opinion and they want To consume his opinion and make sure it's not the AI slop opinion. That's why. Now this is a new trade. They d I think they did, yes. Because they also felt the Wall Street Journal betrayed them because the Wall Street Journal should be checking. that anything submitted is not AI slot. The same way professors should be looking at students' work and making sure their papers are not AI slot because we want them to

1:06:56 Have learned something and they want the same thing when a teacher is teaching. They people don't want to pay for a teacher who uses AI slob either. And so we as a society have to decide When Do we need it to come from the human and understand it's a hundred percent human or sixty percent human? And when do we Think we trust the AI. And I want to hear his actual opinion. I have questions. Many questions. Okay. Question number one.

1:07:22 Are you suggesting that Stan didn't read this thing that was generated? Okay. So it's not a When he read it before we well that's an open question. Did he? Okay. I think he well, he defended it, yes, you're right. I hope he did. Okay, so you do you have an issue with the fact that he read it? He thought, Yeah, this is what I think.

1:07:43 Boom, and hit the send button, that's a betrayal to you. I think not disclosing it is the betrayal. If you want to write if you want to give me your opinion As interpreted through the AI magic guessing word box. You need to help me.

1:07:55 I understand to tell everybody. I I understand. Now I just want to understand. I think What is standing disclosure for all future publications that I put out, including tweets, is that I try not to publish anything. without running it through AI first. To fact check it.

1:08:16 To line edit it. And to help me make the best argument I can. So this is a standing disclosure. That if I've written something and published it, it's probably been through AI. I'm totally fine with moving and totally fine with proofing to be clear. Proofing, fact checking, great uses of AI. Grammar checking, great use of AI. Now you're debating the slider of how much he proof checked. I understand you don't understand this concept because you're not new trained journalists, like you don't, but I can tell you there's a distinct difference between being proofread and having somebody play We'll write some sh for you.

1:08:48 And that's what this is, and that's why people object. Question. Is Stan Drucken Miller his next op ed? Is he allowed to use a computer? Of course. Okay. Okay. Okay. Let me keep going.

1:08:59 Is he allowed to use a word processor? Or is it just like the no pad? I mean, you obviously understand he can use any of those tools. Okay, but somebody else gives you he should disclose it. That's it. What about Grammarly? Is he allowed to use Grammarly for grammar? I'm a shareholder in grammar grammarly. Jake, what do you think his process was on this post? Do you think that it was simply delivered to him fully baked and then he just said go with that? Or is what the AI detection software said is that this is like ninety percent written by AI. I'd be so if that was his process. I my here's my guess. No and I don't know.

1:09:33 This is just a guess, I don't know. My guess is he had the take. And he probably told The AI the take, either in writing or just speaking to it, or You know, essentially speaking to his assistant

1:09:44 Who basically dictated it and put it in the AI. And then he probably got an output and he probably made corrections and edits to it. And that was probably something like his process. I don't really believe that this thing was just spit out. as AI slop and then he just said print it. This is J Cal's image of what happened.

1:10:03 He's sitting in his office in New York. He goes in front of a browser, he opens chat GPT and he writes yields up bad. Gets the whole thing, prints it out in detail. Emails the opening. If you can't appreciate the thinking it must have come from him.

1:10:24 If you can't if you can't appreciate the lip syncing analogy, it would have been easy if lip sync. Okay, here here's the problem with the lip sync analogy is He's criticizing something that just happened. It was this Bessant buyback policy, right? He's criticizing his former colleague. About something very specific.

1:10:42 That the Secretary of the Treasury just did. What's the lip syncing? A lip sync is when you have a song that's been performed a thousand times. There this is novel and new. Even more even more evidence of why he should write it himself. It it's really about it. You should respect the audience enough to take the time to write it yourself, not let the idea. You can have a different audience. That's allows enough.

1:11:08 I I was like Oh, this is a useful data point for me about totally fine. A reminder about listen, some people The the difficulties of yields wait, can I ask you, did you read the article and have an opinion about the substance of it? Yeah, so there was well, I mean, I wanted to know if they were coordinated and this was some sort of like did you know it was AI generated before someone printed that on the timeline that Well no, it came up in my timeline first as I read it in my first hold on you ask me a question, let me just answer it. It came up first.

1:11:42 I saw the plagiarism, the AI slot. Whatever uh journalists how people are. Let me tell you I I read it. Hold on. I read it when it first came out. I didn't see the stuff in the timeline about the software supposedly detecting it. I got hit by the timeline first. It sounded completely consistent. With the many other times I have heard Drake Miller speak about the де problem. Okay, on podcasts and Written versions or whatever.

1:12:10 I didn't know. So if he's plagiarizing from someone, he's plagiarizing himself. Yeah, I mean listen, plagiarism is not the right analogy here. It's not perfect because this is a new thing. But It is taking credit for taking hold on let me finish. He's taking credit for what the AI wrote. And I would prefer him to take the time to respect the audience to write it himself because I have respect for him.

1:12:33 And I wanna understand his true opinion. Not as interpreted through a I, just like when I hear somebody sing a song. I would like to know that they don't auto tune it. And they haven't post produced it to the point of absurdity. That's me.

1:12:48 I believe the artist. Що геоарт. Giving you their actual position without using the eye. That's just my opinion. That's my preference. Even the top performing artists use auto tune and like all these other tools to basically make themselves sound the best. And in a similar way here.

1:13:05 We know that AI gives people superpowers. Drack Miller said I'm not the greatest writer. What makes him interesting is He's a thinker. He has a take.

1:13:13 It's A long held position that he's had. And he's willing to even criticize his former colleague and I assume friend. Because it violates. You know, his view of the world.

1:13:24 And he's saying he uses AI to basically make his writing Better. I don't get it. I don't this is using a glamorly type tool. I just don't like the idea that it wrote it In full, which is what the claim is. Now we don't know. We'll talk to Stanwigs at the event.

1:13:40 We can move. I will tell you I prefer listening. to a band like Mark Knoffler where he actually can Write the song. Play the guitar riffs I prefer that in my art

1:13:50 Or in an opinion or in a novel. to being written by AI. That's my preference, and that was the expectation of the audience. But this is a new Now that you know Drock will continue to use AI because he said it Will you just ignore what he has to say? No, I but I will not think as highly of him, and I don't think it's respecting the interviews. So you're saying the substance Of what he says will no longer matter to you, or you're gonna discount the substance less than

1:14:17 No, you just said that. I think that's a good thing. I will wonder. I will wonder. What is his actual opinion? No, but what you're saying is AI construction. Personally. You're gonna trust the greatest macro trader in the world less. Tomorrow than today.

1:14:34 Because he used the tool to write his I I I will wonder if it's actually his opinion and how much work he did, and I feel it's disrespectful that he didn't do it himself. That's how I feel. I will wonder. It'll make me wonder. If that is actually his perfect opinion and crisply his, because I think he's phoning it in. And I just don't like people phoning it in. It's only eight hundred words, write it yourself. Work with a proof reader. It's totally fine to do your research that way. Listen, we're going to agree to disagree on this one.

1:15:00 CI director made an unannounced visit to Moscow. John Ratcliffe. Made a surprise visit on Tuesday and flew back the same day. First visit by sitting CIA director since November twenty twenty one. That was when Bill Burns went to warn Putin not to invade Ukraine.

1:15:17 He invaded three months later, obviously. Well, the general reporting Ratcliffe was there to warn Russia to not attack a NATO country. New US and Tower Porterly. shows Putin could be planning to test NATO's resolve with a limited assault in the next few years, cyber attack, small land incursion, et cetera. Polymarket says only twenty one percent chance we get

1:15:38 A Russian Ukraine ceasefire by the end of the year. Freiburg, you were on fire in the group chat about this. What are your thoughts and what's going on here? There's wild speculation. Wall Street Journal and others have reported that the message that was delivered Was don't Invade

1:15:55 NATO Mm. And don't use nukes on Ukraine. So there's been this kind of wild speculation about what this means. It just seemed like There's some

1:16:06 meaningful going on, but to Sax's point in our group chat, this is speculation. There's no evidence or Putin's made. And more than that, the president I think called into a show to basically say that that w story was not true and the contact was routine and then the Russian readout

1:16:24 said roughly the same thing. So the truth is we don't know what the meeting was about, um, but You know quite dramatic. I think I think it's all speculation. Mm. I I know what it was about.

1:16:35 Oh. Here we go. Druck's AI infused memo of the Wall Street Journal. He was warning Putin. To not use AI to write his next food. His next day maybe AI. We flew over there to deliver a very strict message, which is we expect non AI tool usage because we are journalists at our core. Yeah. I think it's possible, J Cal, that the trained journalists got this one wrong and were engaging in wild speculation.

1:17:03 And hyperbole. without actually knowing what the meeting was about. I mean wow speculation is what we do here. It's a podcast. Uh the whole point of the show is to speculate what the hell's going on here. First of all, both the American and the Russian side have denied these dramatic speculative claims that somehow Ratcliffe was there. To warn the Russians not to invade Europe. I actually believe those denials

1:17:28 Because it it wouldn't make sense for the Russians to invade. NATO countries. This is the same kind of threat inflation that we've heard for Years From neocons.

1:17:37 About Russia's supposedly imperial ambitions to conquer all of Europe. There's simply no basis for believing it. And frankly, the war is not going badly for the Russians. It's certainly taken a lot longer than anyone thought, and Russia has paid. heavy pricing casualties. I don't know that the numbers are what you said, Freeberg, but

1:17:55 I think if you look at most of the sources now covering the war. What they're saying is the Russians are making slow but steady progress and It's Ukraine. Who is suffering the most? First of all, the Russians have air superiority. The

1:18:09 Ukrainians are basically out of air defense. So Kiev is getting bombed on a routine basis. The Russians are able to pretty much destroy whatever they want. At will. So

1:18:20 The Ukrainian infrastructure is paying a heavy toll. And this is coming on the eve of what is expected to be, you know, a pretty cold winter. And Ukrainian power is getting taken out. Moreover. Odessa and the Black Sea ports of

1:18:35 Ukraine. have been bombed and basically shut down. So their economy is paying this incredibly heavy price right now. They're not able to export grain. So their economy is basically getting Destroyed.

1:18:48 And they're running out of money. Zelinski's running around saying that he needs another thirty five billion dollars, or they're gonna be out of money. The US is not funding that, but he's trying to get that from the Europeans. And then their casualties, although we don't know the numbers, are also huge. And now there's been stories about them potentially Drafting women.

1:19:07 Because they're so low on soldiers. Keep in mind Russia has four or five times the population of Ukraine, so they're able to sustain much greater army. So Things do not look great for Ukraine, and frankly, Zelensky should have listened to when President Trump told him. You don't have the cards in this war, you should make a deal.

1:19:23 Solinski didn't want to do that, he didn't want to make a deal, he still doesn't want to make a deal. He should make a deal and um Frankly, I don't think Ukraine's gonna come out on top on this thing. Chemoth, you have any uh thing you want to add there, or we'll just wrap. Thanks to Meta for solving my biggest problem, which is imposing limits on Instagram.

1:19:43 Yeah. Yeah, okay, we didn't even get to that story. It's a big I'm tired of playing guackable with my kids and I can't do it and they have fake accounts and secret accounts and this and that. And yeah, please think you should have done it sooner, but I'm glad you did it. Yeah, I uh will uh give them some amount of credit for Yeah, they got drag kicking and screaming to do the right thing, but now the tech took to

1:20:05 I hope TikTok and YouTube do the same thing. And uh it'll make it. It'll make the life of a parent. Much simpler. It'll allow us to actually parent versus just policing device usage. I'd love to see Android and uh exhausting

1:20:21 Because you're part of your child with a device. It's exhausting. And it's terrible for young women to be on these Instagrams. We We we held the line to sixteen years old, but seventeen we are. You lost the battle. Where did you hold the line, Jamal?

1:20:35 The kids for social media? No, my kids aren't allowed until they're sixteen, but That's not the point. It's just that look. We've talked about this. I've been very consistent about this. This could have happened a lot sooner. I'm glad that it happened.

1:20:48 I applaud Meta for doing what they did. I hope that TikTok and YouTube do the same thing. These limitations are are coming around in Australia and Canada and the UK. They'll probably appear at other places.

1:21:01 It's physiologically and psychologically really helpful for kids to have these limits. So Yeah. These Parental control apps aren't that great.

1:21:12 So We're always on our b I'm always on my back foot as a parent. And it's frustrating and I would rather just spend time with my kids on other things other than screaming at them to get off their phone. Yeah. It's a

1:21:25 The tools are hard to implement. I hate Freeberg. What's going on with the summit? How are we dealing with the summit? Well, I'm excited to share with you that the All In Summit is just two weeks away. This year we've got some incredible sponsors helping us bring some big ideas to life. Iran is back.

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1:22:48 We're excited. We will see you all at the all in summit. gonna be a great party. Hey Fribert, what's going on with this cancer vaccine? And the stock that tripled in the last two weeks. We didn't get to it last week, but I know I want to hear about it and I'm sure the audience does. Yeah, Moderna stock.

1:23:04 I think it's what you're talking about, right? Yes. I think they went from like a twenty billion market cap to sixty billion market cap on The positive readouts from this thing that's being called a cancer vaccine. And I think it's worth highlighting how this cancer therapy system works. This goes back to the nineties. Where

1:23:23 There was this idea that you could create what are called neo antigens. These are small Peptides or proteins. That mimic А пепти о протенік. to a cancer in your body.

1:23:36 And so that antigen, which means that your immune system sees it as an invader. causes your immune system To start to make cells. That destroy that protein and so by putting that protein in your body

1:23:50 Your immune system gets activated and it gets turned on. To go and find that protein in other parts of your body. And destroy that protein. So the objective is figure out what is the protein that is unique.

1:24:03 To a particular cancer. Make that protein. Stick it in your body. And your immune system will go and destroy the cancer that's in your body. And so this immunotherapy, the system of

1:24:14 basically using an antigen that's designed for a cancer in your body to go and attack it. has been around since Call it the late nineties. And there was this big revolution in DNA sequencing. Where we identified that we could take

1:24:28 Samples of cancer. Put them in a DNA sequencer. And look at the sequence. Of the genes. The proteins that are made.

1:24:37 Because they're made from genes. that are unique to that particular cancer. And therefore make a personalized neoantigen that's personalized to the unique cancer that's in your body, because all these cancers. mutate and they're different and no two cancers are identical. How do they get that key for me personally versus you? How do you get that sample of of your your tumor. Um or cancer cells. So when you take your

1:25:00 Let's say you have you know, a melanoma. And the reason that melanoma is one of the kind of biggest targets for this Immunotherapy. Is that melanomas have very kind of unique

1:25:12 DNA mutations. because of UV light hitting the skin. And so the particular cancer that you'll get in a melanoma that you have. is going to be very unique with respect to the rest of your body. It's gonna be a very unique mutation. So they take the a little bit of the melanoma.

1:25:28 They get the DNA out of it. And when you do DNA sequencing, you multiply the DNA by millions or billions of times. You put all that DNA in a DNA sequencer, it gets chopped up and read. And then the sequence data comes back and it says This is what makes this cancer unique. It's this little sequence of the DNA.

1:25:45 And that sequence of the DNA causes that cancer to make a unique protein. That is basically like a key or an ID or fingerprint of that cancer. They then take that DNA. And make protein from it.

1:25:57 Put that protein in your body. And now your immune system goes crazy and starts attacking that protein because it's like, Oh, antigen, antigen, I gotta go get it. Now that those cells are activated, those immune cells are activated to that protein, they'll eventually go destroy that cancer. So

1:26:10 This has been successful. There have been hundreds of trials with this neo antigen based therapy. For many different types of cancer. And there's all these trials that have tried to figure out What's the right technique for delivering the neoantigen? Do we make the protein and then stick it in your body? Or in this case with what Moderna did.

1:26:28 Make MRA. And stick it in your body. And the MRNA causes your own cells To now make that protein and spit it out. Ends up in your blood.

1:26:38 And now your immune cells got activated. So rather than making the protein ex vivo, which means outside of your body. You're put making the protein in your body in vivo. And now your body's making the protein. So the the the idea with the MRNA concept Is you can get one shot. That shot goes into your body and now your body's making that protein, just like we made the COVID vaccine.

1:26:58 Yes. Your cells would make a particular protein segment that would activate your immune system and it would go kill that cancer. There's other questions around what are the other adjuvants, what types of cancer can you use this system for? And then combination therapies. Are there other cancer drugs that you can do this in combination with And the all the trials that have been going on

1:27:16 are all about this delivery mechanism. the technique that's used, the types of cancer. The dosing and getting all of that stuff right. Now What's interesting about this is it is much more

1:27:28 Of a technique. Than a drug. In the traditional It's a process of it's a process. Right. So the process customized per person. So there's some cost to doing it per person. That's right. But the cost uh'cause I do DNA sequencing in my company all day long.

1:27:45 Getting that sample, very cheap. Getting the DNA data, very cheap. Actually doing a lot of the upfront work very cheap. Now theoretically Making. The M R and A.

1:27:56 Or making the protein. Should also be pretty cheap. But it's human trials and human safety. And so there's a lot of questions around How do you make sure that everything's safe and what's the right combinations that people don't get overreacted immune systems? Or that people don't have

1:28:10 Адвер сайт ефект. So that's all of the tuning of this. But I think what frustrates me the most about all of this, and everyone's kind of lauding this as some unique breakthrough and special and powerful. And it's not. Because a lot of people are going to places like Montana.

1:28:24 And they are getting peptides printed for their particular cancer sequence and they are making their own neo antigens. Putting it in their body. And getting cured of their cancer. You can pay someone fifty thousand dollars to do this for you today. There's a lot of clinics that'll do it. And it's not a special FDA approved drug.

1:28:40 To your point, Jay Cal. It's a process. The processes Take the DNA sequence from my cancer. make a protein, put it back in my body, my immune system goes and destroys the cancer in my body.

1:28:50 Great idea. So why is Moderna saying that they're gonna charge five hundred thousand dollars for this? And that's what I think frustrates me about all this. Everyone's lauding this and everyone's very happy about this. But I'm actually pretty sad and frustrated and disappointed by this. I don't think That this technique

1:29:06 Which has been large developed through several decades. Of iteration. Research and development. Which was largely funded by NIH and other public funding dollars. That has led to this incredible concept.

1:29:19 of neo antigen immunotherapy for cancer. Which can eradicate or theoretically eliminate many different types of cancer. should now be patented FDA approved and charged half a million dollars for people to get treated for this. Yeah. And so what I don't like about this story

1:29:34 Is that a private pharmaceutical company has seen their market cap go from twenty billion to sixty billion. 'Cause they went through this regulatory process to create what in my mind Is a form of regulatory capture. And making the case that it's all about safety and trials and we've got patents and all this other stuff.

1:29:50 When fundamentally there's an underlying technique That was funded by a lot of public research dollars. That I think should be more open sourced. More ubiquitous and every hospital Що би трендус процес.

1:30:02 to treat cancer patients. Do you think that people I have two questions, um, we can end it on that, but um Do you think they're gonna be able to successfully defend this patent? Uh, in the United States and then also globally, because there's obviously a global world here and people do travel for treatments now. Medical tourism is a thing. So if it's a half million dollars here, can it be done for fifty K and

1:30:25 South Korea, Japan, other places. Yeah, and then whatever happened with MRNA And the Covid vaccine and a lot of the concerns people had We never got an update on that, but obviously this podcast started during all of that. And that was the first roll out if I uh at scale, correct? Uh for M RNA as a technology. So how do you feel? Yeah.

1:30:46 For Europe, Moderna was working towards this MRNA based cancer. They're calling it a vaccine, but it's really immunotherapy. Because a vaccine means You prevent yourself from getting something. Whereas in this case, you're actually getting rid of something you already have.

1:31:01 So I don't like the word vaccine. But Moderna worked on this for years and they never really kind of got to market with it. And then COVID came about and they pivoted very quickly and got this COVID vaccine out. Madonna has a whole bunch of patents on the techniques and tools that they use. To make MRA.

1:31:17 And to make sure that it's not integrated into the the human genome. And it doesn't actually use a traditional kind of replicating uh system. So so you can't actually replicate that MRNA, which means it won't start propagating in your body, because your cells typically might start making copies of RNA if it ends up in yourself. So there was a lot of stuff that Moderna developed.

1:31:37 that made their particular MRA technology patented And safer and and so on. So I think that they do have strong patent coverage on their particular set of tools for MRA. But What I described earlier, so if I take the sequence of your cancer cell.

1:31:54 And I look at the DNA of it and I'm like, I've found what makes it unique. There's this little sequence. And now I take that sequence of DNA. And I can stick it. In a bacterial cell. E coli.

1:32:05 In a little tank. buy what's called a bioreactor. And that bacterial cell will now start to make that protein. Because I've taken the DNA and put it in the E. coli cell So now the E. coli cell is coding that DNA.

1:32:16 Into RNA, into proteins. Cause that's the sequence, right? DNA turns into RNA turns into proteins. So that E. coli cell, there's billions of copies of those cells, they make billions of copies of the protein. You isolate the protein out of the bioreactor. And you can inject it into your body.

1:32:31 And when you inject that protein into your body and now your immune system gets activated. So you don't necessarily need MRNA is my point. And M RNA is a really effective way of doing this. It's super cheap. 'Cause you don't have to go make all the protein outside the body. You can literally just print the MRNA and get one shot and you're done.

1:32:48 But that end to end system, the real cost of doing that is very low. And so This is one of those things where we have a very big fundamental question. That we should all be asking, which is like Should we be giving the monopoly on cancer treatment?

1:33:01 to this company that went through this FDA process. And filed a bunch of patents on certain techniques. But the general theory, the general thesis, the general therapeutic Process It's well described, well understood, generally understood.

1:33:14 And should be available everywhere. And I think over the next couple of years we are gonna see This cancer immunotherapy based system start to proliferate. And you will see this happening overseas. Very cheap. It is very efficacious. And we act you and I actually have a friend in common who's kind of standing up a business to do this.

1:33:31 In a very cheap way. Up in Montana where you have a right to try and they can make the stuff. So we are gonna see I think more of this come to work, but It is for certain types of cancer. Very efficacious, very safe.

1:33:43 Very effective. So I I'm I I'm excited by this news. Just for people who are listening who are Normies. All of this cancer treatment requires early detection, and that's something that people have been working on. with the blood test the galleria, I believe it's called. So getting to the cancer and getting regularly tested

1:34:02 Is a critical part of this, yes. So you're talking about a gallery test by Grail. The blood test, yeah. The blood test. Yeah. Just early testing is the key piece for all of us to keep in mind. Get tested early and often for cancer. Yeah, and and remember, there's a bunch of these new what are called modalities, new modes of therapy, therapeutic modalities that are being used. to destroy cancer. One was CAR T therapy, where you take T cells out of your body. And you use CRISPR or some other system to reprogram those T cells.

1:34:29 To go after remember that protein I described. So you actually program the T cells to go find a specific protein in your body and destroy it. So they go find The protein that's unique to a specific type of cancer cell.

1:34:42 And the T cells get put back in your body and they destroy it. Card T therapy. CAR T therapy costs a million dollars. And for people with blood cancers. Where the cancer cells aren't clumped together in a tumor.

1:34:54 Um, but blood cancer, the cancer cells float around individually in the blood. And so by putting T cells in your blood. It's very easy or it's much easier for the T cells to find the the cancer cell Grab'em and destroy'em. And so for blood cancers like multiple myeloma.

1:35:10 The efficacy is incredible with carapies now. So that's a new type of modality. This is a new type of modality. Um, this uh mRNA or neoantigen therapy. So there's all these new techniques that are being used to destroy cancer. And I think in aggregate we should be very excited and optimistic about where this is headed. Wow, thanks for sharing and uh let's hope for the best with implementing this. And I love this right to try. That seems to be something we should talk about in a future episode. We'll see you all next time. On the all on podcast. Bye bye. Bye bye.

1:35:42 We didn't you get Mercy's art doing all

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