Most Replayed Moment: Neil deGrasse Tyson On The Future Of Humanity! Will We Ever Go To Mars?

0:00 Uh I spend so long these days thinking and talking to people about what all of this means. And uh I've got more and more I saw you talking about the simulation theory. Once or twice. And I I started to fall into that whole of things. Oh, yes. It's no, you gotta you know

0:20 Stupid. Step outside every now and then and you know. Smell the roses. But you said you wouldn't be surprised. If people found out the universe is simulated by some sort of advanced life form. Yeah. Given what we can now compute.

0:34 Throw in quantum computing on top of that. Yeah. We we don't have this power yet, but to make a world in our computer where The characters that in that world believe they have free will.

0:46 And then they conduct themselves and then they invent computers and then they make a world inside of their computer. And where their characters think they have free will. And then they're then it's that Simulated universes all the way down. And

1:02 Close your eyes and throw a dart. Which of these un are you gonna get the first universe that invented the Simulated universe or the zillion ones that followed? The dart's likely to hit.

1:14 But my My escape hatch. From that. Yeah. Since we do not yet know

1:22 Or have the power to make a perfectly simulated world. It means We are either the first universe that's real That hasn't created one yet. Okay.

1:33 Or with a last universe. That hasn't evolved yet. To have created one of its own. 'Cause all the middles have the power to create one. So that takes it, you know.

1:44 A zillion to one against us to maybe Fifty fifty. Oh interesting. So I'm a little I'm a little more comfortable that way. Comfortable. Yeah. I sleep a little better at night.

1:57 But'cause it wouldn't matter anyway if we actually it wouldn't matter. If we're completely simulated, what do you care? You living your life. I know we don't want to believe that there are Puppet strings.

2:08 Honest? Um Part of me thinks that, though. You know, just when earth is kinda everything on earth is kinda stable. Oh COVID shows up. Oh. So this this is the programmer saying, you know, the earth is too boring now.

2:24 We got it. Spice it up a bit. They've thrown a pandemic. Okay, a once in a century pandemic. Th now we're m entertaining for them. What do we do? Who gets vaccinated, who doesn't, who's gonna fight.

2:37 Who dies, who lives. Okay, so then we kinda get through that. We get the vaccine. Okay, just calming down off of that. They said. Oh.

2:47 Let's make a billionaire real estate developer from New York City the most powerful person in the world. Let's stir the pot again. And so now the whole other set of stir pot stirring that's going on. So that's Kinda consistent. With A snot nosed alien.

3:08 programm our Existence. Ha That's what I would do. I would throw in Interest th there's a game, Sim Sim City. Yeah.

3:17 I played that. Uh that's how old I am. Sim City. So you were mayor of the city. And Піполкин вочів out of офис. Uh, so you have to do things that make them happy and there's an opinion poll that's there. And if you spend too much money here, you're not spending money on the schools, that's bad, but then there's crime goes up and you're realizing, Oh my gosh, in even this simple simulation, so many interdependent Phenomenon are taking place.

3:43 Then Then You think it happened? Then Godzilla steps through. and plows through the city. Okay, now Godzilla's not real. But

3:54 It kinda is. Because that would be a disaster that is it a flood, uh is it fires? It's it's a thing that n nobody saw coming. Okay. We are recording this interview.

4:06 On September eleventh. I live four blocks from ground zero. That's Godzilla walking through the city. Well, how do you respond to that? What you know, you didn't know that was gonna happen the day before. So

4:20 Realizing that in this game. It's only interesting to play. When Disastrous things happen. Not too many in a row'cause you have to be able to recover.

4:30 So when I look at our world, I'm thinking the best argument I have for being in a simulation is how often some big disaster takes place. When it was the first Uh World War. And then after that The piece? Oh pandemic. Okay. The f the nineteen eighteen flu pandemic.

4:47 Hey now we got out of that? Oh. Uh no uh second world war. Okay, we get out of that. The Cold War! Nuclear Holocaust

4:57 Okay. So That's right. That's me looking over the shoulder of the programmer.

5:06 Oh god. I think I prefer the world where I feel like I have free will and there's not Does it make a difference? If you believe you have free will, even if you don't. No,'cause I'll never know. And you know the fun the fun answer to that. Uh.

5:20 Ask me. Uh Do you have free will, ask me that. Do you have do do we have free will? Do you have free will? What choice do I have?

5:30 No, if you don't have free will, then you don't even have a option to say you don't. So I so you just live life. Just live your life.

5:43 So that the world is better off for you having lived in it. And what does that mean for you? Like it really are better off. Institutions are better off. People are

5:55 Happier. Healthier. Wealthier. Safer. Better fed.

6:05 That rationality matters. Yeah. Politics and lawmaking. And That helps to will help to ensure

6:15 Stability. of anything you build going forward. But Yeah, that's all I mean. It's not it's not complicated. And you were talking about meaning before.

6:24 I stopped looking for meaning decades ago. Because I realise. I we any of us Has the power. Two

6:33 Make Meaning. in life. If you're gonna look for meaning, are you looking under a rock, behind a tree? W what it

6:41 It's as though meaning is sitting there waiting for you to find it. Oh, I found meaning. There it is, now my life is complete. That feels so So Powerless.

6:54 On your own destiny. Whereas Th I I make meaning I I want to learn something today that I didn't know yesterday. I want to lessen the suffering.

7:08 compared with however that person was living yesterday. I want to I want to use what I learn. to well up within me. And manifest as wisdom.

7:24 Because information is not really useful until it becomes knowledge. And then knowledge is good. You can show off if you have a lot of knowledge. That's what these game shows do. But in the end. The best use of knowledge is when it becomes wisdom.

7:42 And wisdom. People say, Oh, I don't like getting older, I wanna be young. I don't wanna be young again. When I was thirty, I was an idiot. Even when I was thirty, I thought I was brilliant. Right.

7:53 So Don't get older. Unless you have wisdom to show for it. It's when you don't have something to show for your age? You want to be younger.

8:06 You're just getting old with nothing to show for it. But I continue to learn things every day. Passively and actively. Passively is you just Notice.

8:17 You know? Open your eyes sometimes and see what's happening. Where things are headed, what they're doing. You learn. Not all things you learn are good. And if they're bad.

8:27 Or need adjustment, or need help. Do something about it. If you can. So that's how I derive meaning. Hence my tombstone.

8:36 Be ashamed to die unless you Scored some victory for humanity. There's the meaning. There's a whole class of billionaires that are trying to live forever now. And I think we are on the verge of being able to extend life

8:49 Potentially indefinitely. Yeah, we're looking for the date. It's called escape velocity. You know about that phrase? It exists in astrophysics, of course. But

8:58 The escape velocity for Earth, for example, is seven miles per second. So Escape philosophy in astrophysics is the speed W that you launch something so that it never comes back. No matter how hard the gravity tries.

9:12 Okay, so every object has an escape velocity. Escape velocity in aging is The idea is There is A generation yet to be born, But

9:25 In the very near future. Who Will not e not only live longer than the previous generation. So So here uh here's a s a clean way to say this.

9:39 Every year. You can expect to live one month longer. Because knowledge about human physiology has gotten better. Okay. Okay. Just think about it that way. Yeah. And so we know what to eat, what not to eat, how to exercise, how to not over exercise, how to m how to maintain

9:57 Your health. Well, your health and physiology. All right. There will come a day. Where?

10:04 Every year that you're alive. Medic has figured out a way. for you to live an extra year. That's the escape velocity. So

10:15 Every year you live another year. And after that it could be every year you live two years. So that's the escape velocity. So it's not just everybody lives forever today. It sort of works its way into the population. And

10:30 Yeah, I don't I don't want to live forever. I don't Take me off this earth. Provided I mean I wanna I I still have more to Give?

10:43 More books to write? That in my judgment would make the world better. than it currently is. So I don't want to die before I Get as much of that.

10:54 Done as I can. But he's scared of. Death. No. Although

11:00 That's easy to say'cause I'm not at death's door. Mm-hmm. And I had someone. rationalize with me, which was th they made a potent argument.

11:10 It's I can say now With another. Twenty years life expectancy. Fifteen, twenty years.

11:17 That I don't fear death. But If I'm on my deathbed and someone says If I can wave my hand and you can live another year, would you? The answer's probably gonna be yes. And at the end of that year if they so

11:31 Uh. I don't know. If my sentiments about life and death will change. On my deathbed.

11:40 I know my mother Th there's a point where she couldn't swallow and she didn't want to feed tube. And she said, My time has come. Like that put me in in Palliative care and then hospice.

11:52 And she was dead. Ten days later. So she was was in charge of her. Sh they could have fed her. With a tube.

12:01 And she would have been completely healthy for another, you know, five years perhaps. But you know. She raised two kids. Three kids? You know?

12:11 Fifty year marriage. Happy life, stable life. And Yeah. I'm good with that. So the billionaires, you know, that that's ego.

12:21 For sure? If you live forever, there are other people Who you're taking resources from. Who would come behind you. That's one. But two Uh.

12:32 Are you still contributing to the world? Should you give another person a chance? Who's in school now, who might be the next genius. It'll figure out the energy problem, the poverty problem, the uh the pollution problem, the the Are you figuring that out? No.

12:47 You're in the last Y you're you're ninety years old. And you're just living on your yacht. So There's the pro there's the problem

12:55 That The last years of your life. are not the most creative. The most ambitious. The most irreverent.

13:06 It's a reverence that where new ideas come. You know, you you've perhaps seen s episodes of Shark Shark Tank. You know, half or more of those people are thirty and under. They got ideas. Fresh ideas. Everyone else is entrenched. So if People

13:21 Start living for ever. They're living forever in the part of their life that is least useful. To the progress in advance. And so

13:35 Oh of civilization will stagnate. D do you think um in but in your lifetime you said you've got a twenty year life expectancy. Well fi fifteen to twenty. Fifteen to twenty year life expectancy. Based on my age now and the age my my parents died. Yeah. But I mean you've done a lot of

13:50 Neurological work and lay down a lot of good foundations with all these books you've written, so maybe it'll be the upper end of that. It's food for AI. It was good for chat GPT. What do you make of AI? What's your what are your thing? I love it. Yeah. I love it. But I I'm It's it's by the way, it's been here for a while. It really spooked people.

14:09 When it started writing your term paper and composing your Your painting. And your set design. All right. That the whole other category of people got spooked by that.

14:19 Meanwhile, AI has been harnessed. and being fully used in my field. And in most of the physical sciences. Uh it's doing work. If you can do the work and and I can go to the Bahamas Let it do the work. We have telescopes coming online that could not exist without the intervention of AI.

14:35 to access the data, reduce the data, analyze the data, make a decision about whether it should go back to the thing that it just observed, because that was weird compared the last compared to the last time it was observed. This is the Vera Rubin telescope that I'm Literally describing now. We're we're we're living with it. What it means is it up It'll have to up the game of people who say they are creative.

14:58 And what I mean by that is I can say Chat GPT. Take this picture of us. And say Chappy Chi P T? Uh paint this scene.

15:08 In the style of Van Gogh. It'll come back, the colors will be just right. They'll have the swirly lines. It'll be perfect if Van Gogh standing here, that's what Van Gogh painted. But I say chat GPT. Paint us in a style.

15:20 of no artist who has ever lived. I don't know what it's gonna give us, but it'll probably suck. Okay. And so true creativity. It's not

15:32 Aping what has happened before and making adjustments. True c creativity, yes, you always build on others. I'm not in denial of that. But true c creativity takes leaps. That most people don't even know.

15:47 Can be taken. Yeah. And so the artist so that gap I think is what chet what what AI In the arts world is gonna force

15:58 Creative people. to reach for. Otherwise you're replaced by Yep. Replaced by a

16:06 A simple request. In the And the input line. Uh of a large language model. Or of an art.

16:14 I was just wondering then if I watch Cosmos in thirty, forty years time. Let's say a hundred years time. I was wondering if this is the moment where humans and computers In the h story of humanity. become one and intertwine. If you think about things like Neuralink, which Elon's working on to me, when he first made that company, all of the narrative that he put out there was about us being able to interface with AI. So we'd need like a brain chip computer interface. More recently it's been about people that are paraplegic and disabled and helping blind people see, but I think that's a socially acceptable way to advance the technology.

16:47 But in his early work he said. Superintelligence is gonna arrive and we're gonna need a way to basically keep up where where we have better sort of latency with um With the technology. And I'm wondering if that's like what we're seeing now. Yeah, super intelligence.

17:04 You know, if that happens Then It becomes our overlord. And we become its pet. Okay.

17:14 Scary. But Don't we treat our pets better than we treat Other humans? In the world.

17:23 Think about it. The pet is kept warm and fed and happy and you And would you do that for a homeless person in the street? A person of your own species? Probably not. So if we're the pet for the superintelligence.

17:36 What about the chicken? How bad could it be? We used to have chickens when we were younger, and I watched my Nigerian mother chase that chicken around the garden, grab it, pull its head off, cook it. Wow, okay. Yeah. Oh oh you worried that it's gonna do that for us? Not all my pets made it. Not all the pets survive. Uh yeah, it depends on whether it needs us. To be alive or dead. We have to be relevant. to it. In some way.

18:00 Maybe we'll be court chesters be entertainment. Until then. I I don't know that this is some special moment. Uh I do a lot of reading of history and throughout history.

18:13 Most occasions, especially in the era of the industrial revolution. People think they're living in a special moment. So I'm not gonna be that guy who says today is special. Because ep everyone has thought they were in a special moment.

18:26 And what do you think is the probability of Me getting to another planet in my lifetime. Yo. Really? Yeah. Well.

18:38 Yes. Please. Yeah, it's just zero. I thought SpaceX Gonna go to Mars. I have an unorthodox view on this, so you don't have to

18:47 You don't have to believe me. You know. But My read of history tells me. That we only do big expensive things.

18:57 If there's a geopolitical reason for it, either An economic. Reason or A defense reason. Uh not just'cause it's the next thing to do.

19:08 And when we went to the moon Realize in nineteen sixty one. May twenty fifth. President Kennedy, just six weeks after Yuri Gagarin. flew around the earth in orbit.

19:21 We didn't have a A ship that wouldn't blow up. on the launch pad that could carry humans yet. He calls a joint session of Congress. and says if the events of recent weeks couldn't even utter the man's name.

19:35 The events of recent weeks. And I paraphrase. or any indication of the impact of this adventure on the minds of men everywhere, then we need to show the world the path of freedom over the path of tyranny. It's a battle cry against communism, the godless Russians. Everyone in the whole Soviet Union.

19:54 We were losing A Technological race. And that was the battle cry. that prompted Congress to write the check.

20:04 Oh, later on he says, Oh, it'll be w uh put a man on the moon and be for return him to safely earth and oh that's so beautiful. That's so beautiful. No one ever spent scads of money. Just because it was a cool thing to do. That has never happened ever. So We go to the moon.

20:26 People forgetting why we went to the moon. Say while we're on the moon. At this rate we'll be on Mars by nineteen eighty five. That'll be the next ambitious goal we'll take on. No.

20:43 Because we didn't just go to the moon because that was the next thing to do. We went to the moon to beat the Russians, and when we got to the moon... And we looked over our shoulder and the Russians weren't there, we canceled the Apollo program. 197. We haven't been back to the moon in fifty-three years. We canceled it.

21:01 Apollo eighteen was ready to fly. It's now in captivity in Huntsville, Alabama, in a museum. On its side. It's fascinating to walk the full length of it. All rocket re flight ready parts. It never flew. We ended it at Paul seventeen.

21:17 No, we didn't go to Mars. Because we didn't have geopolitical reasons to do so. Neither economic Nor For defense reasons. Historically people explored

21:28 Did expensive things. For the glory of God. And royalty. Very expensive. The pyramids. The honor of royalty.

21:38 Okay. The church building, cathedral building. All of these activities were in the glory Uh Power.

21:48 Deity. And royalty. There's none of that happens today. We're past that. The power of kings and gods.

21:56 It doesn't happen. Nobody Dislodges. Major resources. of the capital resources of a nation. In the interest of a god or king.

22:05 Anymore. Okay. It's secular. And secular means it's money. Or it's war.

22:11 Because you feel threatened. Okay. So You know, we're going back to the moon now. Yeah. Project Artemis.

22:18 Did you ever think to stop and ask why? Why didn't we stay on the moon in nineteen seventy two? Why don't we go back in nineteen eighty, or nineteen ninety, two thousand, two thousand and ten. Oh, all of a sudden, let's go back to the moon. Wouldn't that be cool? Do you know when Artemis began? In the late teens?

22:36 Right about when China says we're gonna put Pychonauts on the moon. Technology. Take a note. Mm.

22:47 All right. That's when we saw Let's go back to the moon. What a good idea. Let's do that. Really? 'Cause we'cause it's just a good idea. Because we're a little bit spooked.

22:59 By a friendly foe. Across the around the world. Mike. Get The glory of that exercise

23:07 And once again it's a godless Country. Okay. Communism. Mm.

23:14 is godless. By design. By construct. So Here we are, going back to the moon. All right.

23:23 What motivation do we have to go to Mars? Are there oil wells there? Is there you know, diamond mines? We're not going to Mars. We're just not.

23:36 Unless China says they want to put military bases on Mars. We're gonna be in Mars in ten months. Mm-hmm. One month to design, build and fund the thing, and nine months to get to Mars. A geopolitical force operating.

23:51 Oh, and by the way, NASA doesn't have a rocket that'll get us to Mars. They think they do, but I don't really have one yet. Time to do that, they say, Well, does anybody have a rocket? Elon says, I have a rocket. So if Elan Rocket goes to Mars. It's not'cause he sends it there, it's because taxpayers sent it there.

24:09 By the way, he could go there. On a vanity project. But there's no business case. He he could fly to Mars. Team up with Jeff Bezos.

24:19 They can send people to Mars. It's not a business case. And if you are an investor in his company You would not agree to do that. You wouldn't. But he doesn't need investors'cause he's very wealthy. He could do it on his own.

24:33 Are you going to Mars as a tourist? І за із а бізнес кей? No. It's a trillion dollars to get to Mars. First.

24:41 Second will be a little less. I don't see that Happening a trillion dollars. About that. Yeah.

24:49 D If Earth were a schoolroom globe. With your fist, show me where you think the moon is. This is Earth. Take your fist and put it at the distance.

25:02 The moon is. Your fist is about the right size. Compare it. Okay. Right there? Yeah.

25:09 Okay, not too bad. It's thirty feet away. It's in the next room. Okay, thank you. Thirty feet away. Okay. That's the moon.

25:18 Let's keep going. How far away from Earth did the Bezos Branson Uh Rockets go. Oh no, the thickness of two dimes. above the surface of the earth.

25:32 How far away is Mars? It's a mile away. From here. Yes. From this earth. It's a mile away.

25:40 The moon thirty feet away? Mars a mile away. Yeah, it's a trillion dollars tomorrow. Yes. How long?

25:47 Nine months. If you have to wait till the Planets. Are configured so that When you travel

25:54 You arrive where Mars will be when you get there. And that's a minimum energy orbit. If you had filling stations along the way, you can just fill up with fuel and get there as fast as you want. But minimum energy orbit takes about nine months. And then to come back, you have to wait till the It's w configured again. A few years later. So a round trip to Mars is three to five years.

26:14 Easily. So There's not an economic case. I'm not saying we don't know how to get to Mars. We have a SUV sized rover there now, all right, discovering potential life from a billion years ago. It's not like we don't know how to get to Mars. This is not a technological statement I'm making. I'm talking about a practical statement. So no.

26:34 My read of history tells me no. I I thought you were gonna also add to that that even if Elon wanted to do it as a vanity project because he makes all this money and manages to use Starlink as a way to fund it, whatever, that The problem is Elon's gonna die. He's gonna die in the you know, the next couple of decades, which means the vanity element that comes from his childhood situation where he wanted to get out there and explore the stars because he read that book.

26:57 has got thirty years, forty, fifty years left on it. Well that would make'em wanna hurry, wouldn't it? Yeah. Yeah, and plus he said, I don't want to die on Earth, I want to die on Mars. Mm-hmm. I'm paraphrasing, but that's the idea. So that's a goal.

27:13 Sure. But don't tell me it's a it's it's a It's a business case. I can see a Taurus case going into orbit and even possibly visiting the moon. It's three days there, three days back. That's a week's vacation. That you would take?

27:26 And I would save up Five years, ten years of vacation money. If that was the amount that it would take to go to the moon in for one week, that would be a really fun bucket list. Item. What you just listened to was a most replayed moment from a previous episode. If you want to listen to that full episode, I've linked it down below. Check the description. Thank you.

27:49 Uh

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