Transcript
WW3 Threat Assessment: "Trump Bombing Iran Just Increased Nuclear War Threat" The Terrifying Reality
0:00 What does the United States think it's going to gain? From decapitating the Iranian leadership. You can't trust anything that you're hearing right now. You can't trust anything that you're reading right now. It's not paranoid. Misinformation. Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapon, so it's not a nuclear threat. You speak a different nuclear language than I do. This regime is at its lowest, lowest point. Why not strike it now? I mean I can give lots of reasons why you wouldn't strike it if you're not going to be able to do the ability to create their own stuff. What are you concerned about? And what are the unintended consequences that you're foreseeing? There is a domino effect that happens with every decision that the United States makes. So Guys, I've got a favor to ask before this episode begins. Sixty-nine percent of you that listen to the show frequently haven't yet hit the follow button. And that follow button is very smart because it means you won't miss the best episodes. The algorithm, if you follow a show, will deliver you the best episodes from that show very prominently in your feed. So when we have our best episodes on this show
1:06 The most shared episodes, the most rated episodes. I would love you to know. And the simple way for you to know that is to hit that follow button. But also the fact that I think what forty one percent of you have chosen to follow the show that listen to it regularly is the reason why we've been able to improve everything. It's the simple easy free thing that you can do to help us make this show better. And I would be hugely grateful if you could take a minute on the app you're listening to this one right now and hit that follow button. Thank you so, so so much. Benjamin. Andrew.
1:40 First and foremost, thank you for being here today, I I have to start with the question that's been on my mind, as somebody that doesn't know a huge amount about geopolitics, which is What the hell is going on? And I and I say that Because that's exactly what I mean. What is going on? And what context do I need to understand this sort of historical context of the actions we're seeing in Iran
2:01 with this war right now. Benjamin. I know you've got a a personal connection to Iran because your family fled Iran, I believe. Yeah, I was uh I was two years old when we left in March of nineteen seventy nine. Um uh A few months after the Shah had left and uh just after Khameini had arrived. What is the Shah and what is
2:19 Yeah, sorry. The Shah, uh the former monarch of Iran, um the Pathavi dynasty, which came into power in the nineteen thirties, deposing a previous dynasty that had been around for a couple hundred years. And um the he his father brought in that dynasty and then it was eventually he was deposed by the British and the Americans who felt he was getting too close to the Nazis during World War Two. Concerned about supply routes for the Nazis, oil. And his son was installed on the throne at a very young age, I believe eighteen or nineteen. And um he ruled from uh from that period nineteen forty one, nineteen nineteen forty two around that time, all the way through seventy nine.
2:57 a great ally of the United States over over time eventually. Um and uh was deposed was was um overthrown in a revolution and uh by Khomeini, who is a senior cleric who had been a thorn in the Shah's side since the sixties was exiled first to Turkey, Then Iraq, then ultimately to France, right outside Paris, actually. From there he basically led the revolution that led to the Shah's uh Removal um Austral in seventy nine.
3:23 And w how was Iran different when the Shah was in power versus when Hermani was in power? That depends on who you ask. Um it was a constitutional monarchy. The Shah had Powers that we're gonna do. exceeded beyond what we think a constitutional monarchy has today, like in Great Britain. Um he was and he ruled with an iron fist when he needed to. He was an authoritarian, but he also was one that was rapidly modernizing Iranian society, wanting to make it more like the West, using Iran's immense oil resources and wealth to really accelerate Development, building of social institutions, healthcare, uh literacy, modernization, all of those things. That was his focus, make you run more like the West.
3:59 And uh in that sense he succeeded, but it came at the expense oftentimes of civil liberties for many people. It came at the expense of freedom for those who wanted to essentially practice religion, Islam, Shia Islam in their own way. The Shah was not hostile to religion, but he he his policies were inconsistent with where the traditional religious Iranians wanted to go. And it sort of created a schism in society. And you also had um uh A wealth gap and income disparity. w uh immense wealth poured into the country, but it didn't trickle its way downward into the sort of the village and rural poor. And so there's a lot of frustration, a lot of disenchantment with his policies, and that led to sort of this populist backlash of wanting something that was more democratic, more accountable.
4:44 Uh more like the West. Um, ironically, and uh and that sort of was the beginning of of where that cycle led. And so how did it be? Hamani. Take power of Iran.
4:54 He Um go across multiple socioeconomic and political divides. and unified the opposition.
5:07 under this idea of removing the monarchy, removing dependents on the West. He specifically said Iran uh the United States was to large part to blame for Iran being in the state that it was, for people not having the the the the things they needed to live, the freedoms, the liberties. He blamed the Shah's um use of the secret police and torture methods on United States and on Israel, who he claimed, you know, taught the secret police how to do these things. Um there's a complicated sort of history to that. And he basically promised them salvation from a what he did what he portrayed as a puppet tyrant of the United States. And the masses bought into this.
5:45 But both the left and the right. The really the right consisted of the the black, the Islamists. So you had the red, which were sort of the the Marxist socialist uh followers, you had the black, and then you had sort of that middle in in between, and they all coalesced around this one charismatic. religious figure, very um austere man, um one who di didn't really have a lot of luxuries himself, led a simple life, but was consistent with his opposition to what he saw uh tyranny. And despotism. And People bought into it.
6:15 And the Americans didn't like this. The Americans didn't know what to make of it, and there was a failure, and I think Andrew can talk about this as well, over a failure by the State Department of the CIA in the seventies to see where the threat was. They saw the threat coming from the Soviet Union. They s they were still afraid of Soviet encroachment in the Middle East, particularly through Iran. Their concerns were with the Marxists, the communist parties. they did not carefully look at the black, they didn't look at the Islamists, they didn't see them as a threat. Until it was too late. The Shah himself blocked or d really didn't give the CIA full access. to Iran, there was limited information that was coming out.
6:50 He relied on his own uh intelligence, which Fed him information he wanted to hear, which is that everything is going great. The country's doing well. The people love you. They're all happy. Until the discontent and the the protest became they reached a threshold and it was too late to do anything about it.
7:06 Yeah, the United States was kind of at their peak. period of meddling in foreign governments at the time. I'm kind of uh in a strange way that we've come full circle this idea of Of controlling an entire country by controlling the figurehead of the country.
7:20 That's where we were in the uh late seventies at the kind of brink of the Cold War, right? Nobody knew that the Berlin Wall was going to fall. Uh we were all concerned with the spread of communism. Nobody was paying attention to the Islamist threat. Nobody was paying attention to really Any other kind of threat at all. It was very much the
7:37 D. Unfettered, uncontrolled. Unsupervised CIA. Running around with no oversight and with very deep pockets. And that changed at some point. That changed in two thousand one when uh Al Qaeda successfully carried out the nine eleven attacks in New York, and all of a sudden the threat that we had all been ignoring was on our doorstep and had grown so wealthy and had spread so vast across the world that
8:02 Islamic extremism became almost overnight. A household term. Now there's still a difference between Al Qaeda Islamic Shia extremism and what is practiced in the Shia faith. And with the
8:16 outcomes that the Shia militants are trying to pursue. uh in support of Iran. But it's hard to differentiate that in the United States where we don't understand the difference between Sunni and Shia. Annie, what do you think this war is really about?
8:31 Uh very interesting what you both said, and I think what I would add to that to th which very much speaks to today is that the CIA in fact had many ups and downs over the decades, from its creation right after World War Two until this moment in time and then on nine eleven. And so it's been like an accordion experience of Pow being taken away from the CIA and then being grabbed back because the CIA has always historically been the president's hidden hand. It has been the way in which the White House can execute executive power. without having to follow the laws of war that the military does. So military is a code called Title Ten, CIA is a code called Title Fifty. And while that may sound a bit wonkish, it is important to understand because Title Fifty essentially, as Andrew can speak to,
9:27 gives the president authority under classified presidential directive to change any rule he wants that suits him for an operation at hand, which gets us precisely to where we are today. So as far as I understand, there was the Shah, the sort of royal leader who was in power. He was overthrown in the late nineteen seventies. by Hermani. hermane galvanized people to believe in his way, and he's been in power ever since.
9:54 It gets complicated because Homy with an O was the original leader of the revolution and was later replaced by Hominy. And but no that's that is the supreme leader. Yes. Iranian revolutionary guard and
10:24 It's so important to understand that word revolution because And you can speak to this better than any of us, but Iran has been holding on to this idea that or r rather the regime has that we are the revolutionary force against America. That is why the chant is always death to America. The wound of nineteen of pre nineteen seventy five, the wound of America meddling and having the Shah as its puppet is as inflamed Or was as inflamed two days ago. as it was
10:57 the day after the revolution in nineteen seventy nine. I think that's probably important context we miss missed, which was the US got involved in The Shaw and how he governed Iran. It's a fascinating period. In nineteen fifty one. So basically, under the Iranian constitution, the Shah, the king has the authority to select the Prime Minister with the consent of Parliament. The consent part is really nominal. And so Mossadek, who is a senior member of parliament and also a member of the previous royal dynasty, is distantly related. This um elderly statesman who the the Shah out of sort of courtesy after having gone through a successive list of prime ministers.
11:34 says okay, I'm gonna appoint him prime minister. So He wasn't democratically elected. He was the he was elected to parliament, but from there the Shah selected him to be prime minister. Most that nationalized the oil company, the Anglo American oil company, which was owned primarily by the British. This angered the British, who in turn blockaded Iran's ports and basically shut down its oil uh industry. And creating a national crisis. Um and Mozartek was sort of amassing additional powers within himself, uh for himself, basically, overstepping the authority that he had, even though he had the support of a good deal of the public, as it became obvious that this was a a bad move, especially in the eyes of um Iran's international trading partners, and it was causing Iran to be um isolated. There was pushback towards him, and then he was removed.
12:22 the British had wanted MI6 had wanted to overthrow him, basically get him removed, and they um uh try to recruit the United States to help. Um President Truman refused to uh engage in this earlier. Eisenhower comes in is more receptive under CIA CIA director Alan Dulles. To actually engage in this called Operation TP Ajax, led by Kermit Roosevelt, who is the CIA agent officer tasked with this. And then the Americans and the British basically help foment a crowd that is a part of the movement that removes most of that tech. It's a common, I think, a misconception that the US CIA was behind it. The British had a bigger role in in this. The um
13:01 Americans were more of the junior partner, but they became sort of the public face of it. But y Mozart Dek was not this overwhelmingly popular democratically elected figure either. The history is more complicated. And regardless, um, there have been many prime minister there were many prime ministers after him. Um and so he was known as a nationalist because he believed that Iran's oil should be nationalized and not really beholden to British interests, and that created a lot of Uh resentment. And animosity. But that began the US-Iranian relationship really solidified when the Shah returned. He didn't leave, really, he just sort of.
13:35 took himself out of the country for a bit, but he never stepped down. Um and while this was all being resolved, then he comes back and then the the US Iranian relationship Continues all the way through seventy nine. So the UK and the US have been meddling in Iran for a long time and kind of, you know Exerting their will. The UK since the nineteenth century, by far. The UK's th has been the dominant colonial force in in modern Iranian history. And they lose that power in
14:00 the sort of nineteen eighties, early nineteen eighties because the Homaney comes in. The British lose that power with the fall of pretty much the the fall of the Empire in the nineteen forties after World War Two in the United States in seventy nine, exactly. And then since then. the UK and the US haven't been able to sort of exert control and their will over Iran.
14:17 Zero. Zero. There's not even an embassy there, because of course they took our embassy. Or they took over the embassy. I mean it's been And it's been like ground zero of nothing for the CIA's power, for any American power, really for any Western power. You call it a black box. Yeah. It's a rogue nation. It's a black box of information. A rogue nation is a is one of a handful of countries around the world that Follow no international norms. Um North Korea is a rogue nation.
14:41 Uh, Belarus is a rogue nation, Cuba is a rogue nation, Venezuela was a rogue nation. These countries that Completely Stand separate from the the norms of an international society.
14:54 And In Iran's case, it also became this black box where it did not allow foreigners in, especially not Westerners. It Closed down its embassy, the traditional methods for collecting intelligence were very difficult. And geographically it's so far away and so far outside of the the sphere of influence for the United States.
15:12 Yeah. in terms of intelligence and military prioritization It just fell to the bottom of the list. And yet look exactly where it is. It's right in the middle of the east. And to Benjamin's point, oil, oil, oil. It's always about oil. There's always a component of oil. And there are so many other oil options. in that region besides Iran. Right, Saudi Arabia, UAE.
15:33 Uh Bahrain, Qatar. The United States could Partner. With other Arab countries.
15:40 So explain to me in simple terms why Trump right now has decided That this is the best time. Two. Attack.
15:51 Iran. I want to start with you, Andrew. What's your point of view on that? The full picture of what his motivations. I think the question that you just asked. is the most prescient question that we will talk about today. Why? Why now Why Is it being communicated the way it's being communicated? Why was it executed the way it was executed? So why is now the very the best of all times? I frankly don't think it is.
16:14 I think that's the narrative that's being communicated. to the world and to the public. Um what Donald Trump did in attacking Iran. Goes against the
16:24 What the OD and I report? assessed for the big the most likely threats against the United States in her two thousand in the ODNI's two thousand five threat assessment. It goes against The uh Department of Wars. Two thousand twenty six. national defense strategy and it goes against the White House's national security strategy. These massive
16:42 Doctrinal. Annual assessments for how the United States will k will protect national security, the attack against Iran goes contrary to all three of those in terms of priority and action. So why? Now Why? The way that we've done it.
16:58 I can't answer it in any kind of logical way. It's a distraction. It's International pressure with Israel. It's a cheap
17:09 win after a series of losses It's uh a last ditch effort before he understands he that Donald Trump and and his party will lose control of the House in the midterms this year. I have a little bit of a different take, shall I? I
17:29 Believe. The current administration is led as a completely Top down situation. In other words. s like sole presidential authority. This current president
17:41 is very Enraptured with power. And with Um prowess with effectiveness and
17:49 On the heels of Maduro. And maybe even the cartel leader in Mexico. I believe that the current President saw
17:59 Of intense weakness that had been building. No doubt. And In warring in general, when when looking at it theoretically like someone like myself The decapitation strike is the ultimate strike. It's literally like it sounds when you can it comes from cut off the head of the snake.
18:19 And that is exactly what just happened. Why why though why why did he do that? Well I cannot tell you why, but I can tell you what w we all know that this happened. So if you reverse engineer what happens I think it become there's only one conclusion, which is that Mm-hmm. I would think the current presence wanted to do this.
18:40 And was waiting till he had the intelligent the good and the intelli and the intelligence part of it is beyond remarkable. Like how they how The CIA and NSA and You know, probably DIA and NGA, all of these intelligence agencies, of which there are many, not just the CIA, were able to get that information to the president in that exact moment and make that strike and decapitate the leadership that That has been in power since nineteen seventy nine. When they talk about the motives here, Trump will often cite nuclear weapons.
19:16 As the motive, saying he didn't want it uh around to get nuclear weapons. Is is that what's going on here in your point of view? National threat assessment that was produced by the ODNI. In March.
19:28 So less than a year old. Specifically says. That Iran. was unlikely to pursue the development of nuclear enrichment or nuclear weapons.
19:36 That was the assessment of the D the ODNI. And that instead their primary concern was that Iran was going to r focus resources into the research of biological and chemical weapons. So the fact that in March of 2025 The ODNI, the assessment of all intelligence agencies, said Iran is not working on a nuclear weapon. And then After the strike in June of the same year, where we dropped bunker busters and four and Fourdeaux, further obliterating their nuclear enrichment capability in obliterating their program. We have two documents that say they're not developing it. We have another series of attacks that says it's obliterated, and yet we're still saying
20:12 That we need to attack Iran because of WMD. We've heard that story before. We've heard that WMD is a just that the concern of WMD is a just cause for war, and that was when we invaded Iraq in 1992. So what do you think the real motivation there is, therefore is it's very similar to what Annie is saying. That we have a current administration that is president down. It's fascinating if you read the official documentation because when you read the Department of War's Нашкурні стратегії вонні адре. Is Donald Trump. Our President Donald Trump is leading America through our President Donald Trump, the great Donald Trump, like the it's incredible when you hear the speeches that come out of Marco Rubio's mouth or Pete Heg's mouth, what do you hear more than any other term?
20:52 You hear the name of the president. Usually you hear We Or the government or this administration. It's not around a personality.
21:01 So it's a very interesting situation because If there's so much of a person at stake here. And Everybody surrounding the office of the president. is only there because they are respecting kissing the ring of the personality in the center. I'm gonna add to that further, just for a moment, if I may, because
21:20 On that point, the button on that is that if you I watch the president the current president's speeches to sort of you know, discern things. And you can often see get your answer right there. And in one of the speeches either this morning or yesterday, he mentioned that the Ayatollah tried to kill him. And it's To me, it's like oh that's the tit for tat. You know.
21:47 Again, top down, or you could say school boy sandbox. I say that as the mother of two boys, you know, this human behavior that is way outside the norm of, you know, intelligence reports and assessments and these long monographs that may or may not actually be effective. I mean, you know, the biggest s surprises of the past forty years, the Berlin Wall falling and nine eleven. were completely unseen by any intelligence report. So there is an argument that those intelligence reports are uh uh as good as a coin toss. So I want to come to that point because the very fact that we have an Islamic Republic is a direct result of the failure of American intelligence to see that threat. As early as nineteen seventy six, seventy seven, a failure to inform then President Carter to do the necessary take the necessary steps to support the Shah.
22:37 And to neutralize that threat. So the United States track record in Iran for the last forty year, fifty years is abysmal. When it comes to intelligence. Uh and when it comes to statecraft. And so there's that legacy, number one. Number two Octover seventh, twenty twenty three, the Hamas attack against Israel changed the dynamic entirely.
22:57 That attack surprised Israeli intelligence, it surprised Americans, it surprised almost anybody watching. Nobody thought Hamas was going to do that when they did it and the means in which they did it. So all of a sudden that forced a recalibration, a recalculation of what's at stake, what could happen. If we wait for an imminent threat till we see actually the sign outside the door, it's too late. So from the president's perspective, to answer your uh original question, why now, why do this? I believe the October 7th attacks, and it's not at the behest of Israel necessarily. It's the idea that Iran, we know, finances Hamas, subsidizes Hamas, trains Hamas, equips Hamas, provides um logistical support of s on on many levels, so that Hamas can be what it was, and Hezbollah also. So you have these destabilizing nonstate groups in the Middle East wreaking havoc. Destabilizing, causing uh causing chaos.
23:47 You're the United States, you're also dealing with a nuclear threshold state. So Iran may or may not have a nuclear weapons program, but they exceeded the twenty percent enrichment that they were allowed to do under the non nuclear non proliferation treaty they they violated IAEA safeguards they they lied So you take all of this together. This is a regime that can't be trusted. The chance death to America, which is more than Saddam Hussein ever did. And is funding groups that had up until nine eleven, Iran was behind more acts of terror that cost American lives than any other state or non state. group in the world.
24:21 Nine eleven changed that, but up until that The marine barracks bombing um in in the nineteen eighties, terrorist attacks throughout Europe, South America, US embassy. Absolutely. The USS Coal, right? So This is a we've we've been at war from the president's perspective with Iran since they took our hostages, for which they've never atoned for. They've never been held to account for.
24:42 So if you take that calculus and then now we're in a post October Seventh world. with a nuclear threshold state What happened that changed was last year's six day uh twelve day war in June. created an opportunity weakened Iran enough and its proxies has Bala Hamas. Weekend.
24:58 If there's an opportunity to finally address this forty seven є rol conflict. This was the window to do it. That is why I believe. Rightly or wrong. The president took the action. When he did.
25:10 That doesn't make it the best window. And that's what we're being the last best window. I don't think it was the last best window, but it was a window, or at least from their perspective, it was it was a window. You've got everyone weekend, you've got the the regime less popular than it's ever been. I mean we saw the protest in January that led to the the You know, the the bloodbath that you know uh upwards of thirty thousand people killed on January eighth and ninth. Th this was you know th this w this regime is at its lowest, lowest point, both in terms of domestic credibility and soft power and ability to to use proxies to carry out its will. Why not strike it now would be the logic. I mean I can give lots of reasons why you wouldn't strike it. It's it's it's violating international law. It sets a dangerous precedent. It creates instability. There are Americans dead, emiratis dead.
25:57 Uh Saudi's dead. For what? For for for something that was already on the precipice of dying itself. It's been dying for forty years not let it run its course. Because w because what more damage is it going to do? What more October seventh can we see? Arguably less than anything that's already been done. So it's like taking action on it's like putting down the dead dog after it's done all of its damage. Well, you I don't think that you could say to the families of the thirty
26:25 Thousands on people who were murdered by the regime just earlier, you know, in January, then it's a dead dog. I don't I think they would disagree. That's it's their country, it's their people. It's there. It's their decision. It's their right to self determination. I'm not saying it's correct what was done. I'm w I'm just simply telling saying the facts of that which I agree with you know, unilaterally the the the weakened situation was
26:49 perceived by this administration as the moment to strike. Agreed. And what is done is done. Agreed. And so I think what's more interesting to me is You know Observing how America is dealing with us. I mean, we are in our own crisis, America, our own serious crisis. And there are crises around the world, particularly in this area, and without having a crystal ball, none of us know. And I think that w What will happen in the next two weeks will be profoundly telling Interestingly, people will say this was a good move or this will was a bad move, which in and of itself is a bizarre
27:27 theater because y your point is correct. You've got, you know, America taking action in a place that's not its not its That's a sovereign country. You know, decades of a menace that is now off the table. I I would disagree with that. Exactly. We don't know. Yes. And and the worst part is that in the lead up to this Iran's relationship with
27:52 The with Russia and China and other countries That are successfully countering American influence worldwide. Had grown closer than ever before. I think they're fair weather friends. They just turn on them in a second. It's what are you concerned about?
28:06 So so there's a number of things here. So first of all, with the removal of Maduro in Venezuela, which happened less than sixty days ago. And now the killing, the assassination. Of a of a leader. Which was the same thing you did here when you rendered Maduro, right? It's a decapitation of the regime. That's different. I'm I would say if you're going to, you know, extract someone You haven't killed them. So that's not decapitation. That's basically swapping out the CEO. This is completely reinforming the company. I think I agree with that. Because because they were different countries, they operated in different ways. But when you attack the leadership.
28:39 When you attack the head of state. That is protected under international law. Because because when you do that, you open the gates for Everyone. Because it sounds like you're saying that this wasn't the right time to do this. And and so what are the unintended consequences that you're foreseeing? So there is a
28:58 domino effect that happens with every decision that the United States makes and Now that we have essentially taken this military action against a sovereign country, it opens the door for all sorts of other countries to just unilaterally choose when they're going to take action against another sovereign. Independent we have
29:17 created more opportunity for more rogue nations, which is a greater abandonment of an international community, which destabilizes our global trade, our economics, our sense of personal security. The Americans are less secure now. than they were four days ago. They're targeted now more than they were four days ago. And
29:38 If we f if we are coming to the conclusion that we need to make things worse before we can make things better That's a conversation I guess we can have, the debate we can have. But With With the crisis that we have here at home. Від те концерс да изид.
29:53 We have an economic crisis here at home. We have uh a crisis of politics here at home like the United States is I would just say it's tribal warfare here at home. I mean I watch it and it's just very very very dangerous. Keep going. No it's just now we have just exacerbated that even more. And we've exacerbated that more with an ally in the middle east That just got done carrying out one of the most destructive
30:20 a attacks in history against Gaza. You you brought up something. You talk about sovereignty. Uh With regards to the January eighth Um Th the violence committed against the protesters. You said that that basically it's their own people's self determination. How d how does the international community deal with acts of state violence against its own people?
30:40 That's so we have a c a word for that and it's called intra state conflicts. Okay. Conflict inside of a state, a civil war. Right. Mm-hmm. The international community has no responsibility for stepping into a civil war. So that was the this is a great point. This is the debate that the uh that the four Allied powers had at the end of World War II, when they were convening the Nuremberg trials. You had this idea that we don't have laws. To account for how a country or state treats people within its own sovereign borders. The idea is that Germany could do what Germany did within Germany proper. Forget about occupied Germany. Within its own borders it could mistreat anybody.
31:15 Because that was German law. And the push was that that's not the world we want to live in anymore. We want to live in a world where basically nations cannot do that. to people. And that's where the basis of the Nuremberg tribunals came, and that's where we got international law of war crimes, crimes of aggression, genocide, so on and so forth. So the idea is that just because Iran is sovereign, we we sit back and allow them to do that. It's it wasn't a civil war because one side was fighting with with with knives, machetes, assault rifles, the other side had spoons Wouldn't sp you know, I mean that kind of thing, right? It was so lopsided. It was such an abuse and a um asymmetric battle. Under the Clinton administration, we chose to not be part of the international criminal court. We pulled ourselves out of the very same conclusion that you're talking about. Yeah, but Nuremberg was not but but there's also the ICJ. There's a UN framework that's independent from the ICC and the Rome Treaty. So all I'm saying is we do have international law that addresses what nations can do to their own people. And we violated international law
32:10 By by run by attacking a head of state. What what is the there's no continuity. There's no consistency. We choose to do what we choose to do, we choose to support what we choose to support, and we choose to abandon what we choose to abandon. And how how do you make sense in a world like that? How do you predict the future? How do you manage Even raising a family. How do you know where you can travel? How do you decide on investments? How do you you can't that is a great point, and I think that's the that's a you know, that's a point to be made here is that there's an absence of the enforcement of law internationally, and it's Victor's Justice.
32:42 And the dominant will essentially exercise whatever will they want, the law be damned. Do you think this is part of Trump's what his motivations are. linked to his personal legacy. And I say this a lot'cause I think sometimes you've got to kind of follow the incentive structure, especially of a president that can't be reelected, who has talked a lot about wanting to win the Nobel Peace Prize, although he's probably never said it directly. And you c it almost looks like a Trump that's thinking about his legacy ahead of time, and one's legacy is gonna be determined by like the wars you you start, the people you take out, the Venezuela situation, the economies seems to be really important to him. Do you think this is
33:17 He he's motivated more so by his legacy than say someone else. I do believe that we are in a position where this is the first president we've ever had. And I would love to be wrong. Please Disagree with me on this, but I think this is the first president we've ever had that's more focused on personal legacy. Then Profession or political legacy.
33:35 I think he's thinking about Donald Trump And the name Trump And the Trump fortune and the Trump future more than he's thinking about. the image of him on children's bookmarks as a f as a president of the United States for the rest of the existence of the United States. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't feel like
33:52 He's motivated by Country Bye. service he is supposed to be over or party over country. It's Brand over country.
34:03 The Trump brand. I would agree with that, yeah. I've never heard a president talking about oh I might take Greenland, might might go to Venezuela. Um He he fancies himself a deal maker, he wants a Nobel Peace Prize, he pri he prides himself on the number of wars that he's s he's he's he's um ended. um conflicts that he solved. I think ideally he would have wanted Iran to end up with a diplomatic solution. He came with terms I don't think war was a preferred option. I think he would be much happier if there was an agreement that, you know, allowed everything to kinda stay in place. Iran would abide by nuclear restrictions, missile restrictions, proxy restrictions, and then a Trump casino gets built in, you know, a Tehran. That would have made him happy.
34:40 Because yeah, that is about the personal. That is about the brand. And it's also he sees that as benefiting the United States, benefiting uh the US's global partners in the region. So but but I think a lot of this is personally driven. I w I I would agree. I also find it quite fascinating that our Prime Minister in the UK, Kirstar, is not being asked about any of this stuff ahead of time. I I think if we we go back a couple of decades, the UK and the US were allies. Now it seems like the US is kind of act as a lone force in the world. And it's funny because you know, I watched Kirst Armer come out
35:10 after the attacks have happened and he clearly had no idea it was gonna happen. Same in Venezuela. Once upon a time you would have briefed us. The president did go to the Prime Minister about I think using Diego Garcia in other bases, um and was turned down, if I'm not mistaken, right? That that so there was some awareness that something was being planned and and the prime minister said that the that the UK government would have no part in any of that. What's going on here? the macro picture of in terms of
35:35 the declining world order that we once knew, where we had where it wasn't just United States running around doing whatever they liked and other people might be briefed or asked. I mean I'm interested in looking at outcome. You know, and then kind of looking backwards at how we got there. And I'm also very interested in how divided America is, because I really do see it as the greatest weakness. So you can show strength in what just happened, but if you are extremely vulnerable at home, then and I'm not talking necessarily about Hezbollah terrorist cells being, you know, activated, which may or may not happen. I'm just talking about
36:15 the the clash of polical parties in the United States And To that end I often look at the past. And w like so we're talking about You mentioned, you know, being
36:30 friendly and having our allies and our fr and I can't help but look at the reaction of the opposing party right now at this action For better or for worse. Bringing up the Iraq war.
36:43 And talking about how we Got our allies involved, we went to Congress and And I As a historian Can't help but think, but wait a minute.
36:56 The Iraq war was built on faulty intelligence. The Iraq war led us into a Twenty years Absolute misery with so many people in this area. And so to
37:18 To be selective about what works. And what w what doesn't work is to me as dangerous as a situation as we are in now. And I know that's a little bit skirting away from You know, giving you an answer as to why what was done was done, or whether it's a good idea or a bad idea. It just simply is very interesting to me because I can't help but see You know, being a subject matter expert on the history of the CIA in particular, I see these actions.
37:50 Where it is presidential authority driven. since the end of World War Two. And to me that's what this action looks like. So we're in the new era where we are in, which I find interesting, is where the president of the United States can essentially take W historically be a covert action operation. You wouldn't even know about it. That would be the idea. Instead, the
38:15 Announcing it as a military program. So he's merging the legal authorities of Title Ten and Title Fifty and of course the average person in the United States doesn't like oh wait a minute, he's merging those authorities because what is author what are the Title Ten and Title Fifty? Well Title Ten is the military must follow certain laws of war. Okay. And Title Fifty says, if the president decides it is a national security threat, he can use the CIA's Paramilitary that is an actual mil military force they sheep dip Tier one operators over from the military and take the patches off their shoulders, put them in non military clothing, and send them out to do military type work. So he's using the military how he wants to use them. Yes, he has that right as the commander in chief. As the
39:06 Chief Executive of the United States The DOD, or now the DOW and CIA fall under the executive branch. They don't fall under the legislative branch. They don't fall under the the judicial branch. So the president has and always has had the ability to take
39:24 What's so different here is that While we're talking about CIA and CIA being used um by the president in his exercise of authority. What we're all not talking about, what we're missing is that
39:37 CIA has been Got it. This is the same president that went to war with CIA in his first term. CIA has gone through massive attrition since then. They were defunded under his first presidency. So
39:50 Direcliffe is the least used director, the least referenced director, you never hear about him. Is he the head of the CIA and and What I am concerned about is that the CIA I left In two thousand fourteen
40:06 intelligence on Venezuela and And Iran. Since then it's gotten smaller. It's gotten marginalized more. It went to it's been
40:18 treated hostily by the by the US president. And the CIA that I had started hearing rumors about. in the early twenty twenties. Sixty five percent of the intelligence that they were producing was coming from foreign allies.
40:31 They didn't have the ability to create their own. you know, has nostalgia for the former CIA. If you look at history and believes that their CIA was better than the current CIA. That's just the nature of not saying it was better or worse. I'm just saying the intelligence that the CIA is using now, I I would argue That we keep talking about CIA and you keep seeing CIA in the headlines. And it's actually not exactly. But again, the ODNI didn't.
41:02 Or at least according to shall we say the New York Times, which must have come from the White House, CIA provided the intelligence. I don't think that's real. You don't think that is a shield. CIA is the central intelligence agency, which is By design, it means that every other intelligence that comes from every other agency inside the DOD, inside uh the national security infrastructure. has to come through CIA. Only CIA produces the final product for the president. So therefore Everything is CIA. And CIA contain and CIA is the one that's in charge of maintaining foreign relationships with foreign intelligence services. So when Israel has an intelligence report that they share with the US president, it goes through the
41:46 CIA. So ev all credit and all blame always goes to CIA. That doesn't mean CIA actually had the intelligence themselves. So what who do you think had the intelligence and why does this matter? The number one most informed country in the world on the goings on in Iran is Israel. Tell me if I'm wrong. No, I would agree with that. There's no way the United States would have been able to launch against Iran without close coordination and incredible intelligence support from Israel. And I'm going to disappear. Because it means that Israel could be directing The activities of the US military by the intelligence they select. So I wouldn't take that step.
42:25 I don't think Israel has a monopoly on intelligence provided. Um we know that um MI6 has also historically been very active and very capable. probably more so than CIA has been, and in large part because the British government has a embassy, has diplomat ties, um, has trade and economic ties with Iran. Um and it's and the Islamic regime has seen the UK as a effective sort of pipeline or conduit to the United States and has used that in the past. Um sometimes you know, to to better effect than before, but I d I think that there's a I think there's sources of intelligence that the United States gets, and Israel is influential, but I don't think it is the sole influence or the one that pushes it over the edge one way or the other. I wasn't saying that they're the sole.
43:08 But But when it came to Iran, and I think we're saying the same thing, they are They don't have the monopoly, but they have the biggest game in town. Exactly, when it comes to understanding what's happening in Iran. I mean I'm gonna disagree uh because I think that okay, look at past situations where
43:25 The United States attempted to do a decapitation strike and then have a regime change. You can look at Iraq. We tried to kill Saddam Hussein. Failed. And then a disaster blows up. Libya
43:38 Tried to kill Qaddafi. fails, a disaster blows up. Iran. Tries to kill
43:47 the režim or ta decapitate the ri regim and succeeds. So Y are you saying that you believe that's because In the other situations, the intelligence was coming from the CIA, who didn't have such great intelligence, and in this situation the intelligence was coming from Israel.
44:06 Who did? No. I'm saying that That A big piece of the opportunity of Iran is tied to the opportunity that was presented to us by
44:18 are allies in the region. I don't think it's just Israel. Saudi Arabia wants to see the end of Iran, UAE wants to see the end of Iran, Jordan wants to see the end of Iran. There's multiple allies in the region that want to see the end of Iran. But when it came to who had the Longest most reliable. human intelligence source network inside Iran?
44:37 I don't think anybody came even close to comparing with with Israel. And you're saying that was used selectively, meaning Because the all intelligence that's shared with an ally is selected. Of course. I have ten pieces. Do I give all ten pieces to my ally or do I give just the three pieces that I think will move them off the X. Right. To do their find fix and finishing. period end of story. It couldn't have happened without it. And I believe that the United States, the CIA, aggregates all that intelligence. Sig you know, SIG, I mean all the ints. To know that. I can't imagine how Israel knew that more than the United States. Oh.
45:18 I just I I That's my that's where I was. So listen, I mean just to give you a very quick example, right? You're a hundred percent right that people have to be tagged. When you tag a cellphone, let's just say we're talking about cell phones, cell phones give you a geo c a geo location. Every cell phone signal sends a geo tag. But only on the service network.
45:35 That controls that. Phone. United States doesn't have access to most of the service providers in the Middle East, so you already have to have someone to interlocute. The Middle Eastern service provider with the West. And then on top of that, you then have to be able to identify that that selector, that cell phone, belongs to that person.
45:53 Again. If you think that the United States is so powerful it has every cell phone of every person around the country, around the world. Is not necessarily Electronic based.
46:07 So you're saying that I I appreciate your point of view. The point is that Iran According to
46:15 Every prioritized list that we have. is on the low end. of our priorities. Russia's above them. China's above them.
46:24 uh the cartels across Mexico are above them. So somehow we had such refined intelligence On What's your conclusion here, Andrew? Because I feel like there's a there's a second half of your point that's missing, or like a conclusion that you're You're pointing towards benefits. Of all the ones you mentioned also? Correct. It doesn't so what I'm saying is I it doesn't make sense.
46:47 That we would take this action. Unless We are really just acting. On the behest Of our allies.
46:56 For some other kind of gain, a personal gain for the Trump brand, if you will. Some sort of Uh hegemony that the United States is desperately grasping for because we realize that we don't have that power and influence anymore. And as a result of these actions and actions like what we took in Venezuela, we have now empowered And Validated.
47:15 Some of the worst regimes in the world that we've always held accountable for taking the same kind of actions that we take. And who are you concerned about as it relates to other regimes? China, Russia. This Russia. I believe that a big part of the reason that that Zelinski hasn't been assassinated by Russia. Is because that would be crossing a red line. That would
47:33 It would infuriate Europe and the United States because you don't attack world leaders. We just gave them permission to do so. The same thing in Taiwan. We can assess now China has free reign. To just assassinate one person in Taiwan. And then that's just them. We're not even talking about Pakistan and India.
47:48 We're not talking about any of the border disputes that are happening anywhere else across Asia or warlords in Africa. We just validated These these Illegal. Inhumane. So unlike these other world leaders
48:04 How many was His his his his philosophy his entire ideology is was is built on death to America among death to other things. You don't have other world leaders, you don't have The president of Taiwan saying death to China, you don't have Zelensky even saying death to Russia. He might want Putin dead, but he's not sort of he doesn't want the demise of the entire Russian Republic. So I think this is where Khamenei stands apart, where it is it is a a a movement.
48:33 Which became a system of government. Predicated on the demise and the destruction of of United States you counter that, yeah. W interesting with the term stands apart is I was imagining therefore a spectrum. And the minute it becomes a spectrum, it becomes somewhat subjective. So you know, one might say, Well, we think they wanted to hurt us. Whereas before in my head, when you when I grew up, I always used to see these walls and go, Why don't they just they know where the the guy lives. Like I know that sounds like a simplified way, but they know where he is. Why don't they just take him out?
49:01 And and it was always it always felt to me that that was off the table in what you can't just assassinate a leader'cause you don't like them or you're having a sort of geopolitical disagreement. And it's actually only in the last sort of thing. year or two that I thought okay, maybe it is free reign to just fly in and snatch someone out of bed with their wife. which is what happened in Venezuela. And then seeing this, that you can just drop a bomb on them wherever they are.
49:21 It does kind of make you You know, wonder maybe this is now on the table. I've never really seen that in my lifetime. I mean, I know there were some things that went on in Libya and and Iraq and so on, but to snatch a prime minister out of bed with his wife And fly'em over and with photos of it. I go, wow, this is This is a new type of uh
49:40 Geopolitical Action. It's what our Secretary of State is calling. The golden era. The old world is gone.
49:50 Like these are the this is the narrative coming out. and and being spread by The representation of the free world. France. Their uh Macron just this morning.
50:01 stated that to be free you must be feared. This is the world. That we're creating? Death to America? Guess how much I care about that? Guess how much I care that a poor, broke ass, far away fucking Hiddly Dink Country says death to America. Guess how afraid I I am of that. Zero. And guess how afraid of the I'm going to be a little bit
50:20 Multiple people who have led the United States have been afraid of that. They they're not. You can say it all you want. Doesn't matter. And when you do m when you do carry out an attack against the USS Cole. For every one attack that's successful, twenty five of them are thwarted. That's the p that's the benefit of being
50:38 The most powerful Military in the world, you don't have to r worry about everybody who chants in the streets. How many people disown their kids because they say I hate you when they're teenagers? You don't care. You're like, give it time. They'll grow up. They'll be fine. They've got to go through their shit before they realize what it's like to be grown ups. That's what we say about our children. So you can say the same thing about a country that
51:00 just came to power in nineteen seventy nine? They're less than a hundred years old. What what do they know about how to actually be a country? What do we know? We're only two hundred and fifty years old. I mean it's hard it's hard to swallow that like, you know, it's okay if you have like a horrible, you know, murderous, brutal regime making women run around in hijabs and ruining entire s thousands of years old Persian civilization. Have you been to this part of the world? I have not been to this part of the world. What do you think is happening in the in the hermit kingdom in North Korea?
51:37 I mean shoot, look Afghanistan. We left Afghanistan and knew that that's what exactly what the Taliban was gonna do. Right, but but since seventy nine is not normal. But but just to go back to one step for a second, who do we know launched The missiles that kill the Supreme Leader and all the other um in the uh hierarchy. The c I think the credit is going to the United States. No, the credit is going to Israel. So so so Israel is the one that essentially pushed the button, pulled the trigger, what have you. Exactly. In which case then does does Israel have the prerogative to take out
52:11 A head of state that was you know, essentially the only nation state might I remind you that Um came out in support of the October seven attacks. Was only a run. Not even North Korea came out and said anything. No one else did. How many absolutely said this was just an eated high on October eighth, he directed Hezbollah to join the war. Therefore is he a fair target for Israel. It's a great question. Is he a combatant? Yeah.
52:35 I if a header state authorizes funds. motivates, endorses, and basically encourages and shoves out the door. Your attacker. Do you then have a right to go after them? That's I think that's maybe that's the ten thousand dollar question here. Okay.
52:49 Because If you are will if you're willing to see the the leader of every country As an as a combatant, they are the heads of the military. The president is The the commander in chief of the military, if they are combatant, they are illegal
53:03 target. So if they're a legal target, why is it against international law to attack head of state? And even more, what's the acceptable collateral damage? Because Israel is notorious for assassinations around the world. makes them so difficult for other people to ally with because we don't support assassinations. And most assassinations are not legal combatants. They're scientists. That's a civilian.
53:25 They're experts. That's a civilian. They're heads of industry, that's a civilian. They're generals. But not in a hot conflict that makes them a noncombatant. The spaces you're talking about, the line between civilian and someone who works for the government or is on a government funded weapons program or something of that nature. Those lines are blurred in the Middle East. We know that. A combatant okay, but it but those distinctions are are are far more subtle in the Middle East. Especially when you're a scientist working for a state nuclear That you're being forced to work for.
54:02 Because you're one of the few scientists that can do it. I I don't know. Are they forced to work for you? I mean, I mean there are there are defectors, there are those who who who opt and then there are those who double down and become religious cheerleaders supporting what the government's doing. I mean, the point I'm making is that You saying it doesn't give you the international under international law the right to take out a head of state. What if it was self defense? That's not what it was. I have a counter narrative here. You know, this administration is very interested in in social media. And for that reason I am, too. And I look at
54:39 I saw a meme that was going around immediately after this Um decapitation event. So quickly, in fact, it made me wonder like who pushed that out that quickly. And it's a white sheet of paper with all the months of the year. Of twenty twenty six. And January there's a picture of Maduro. February there's a picture of the Mexican cartel leader.
55:03 March one day off there's a picture. Of the supreme leader of Iran. And then there's a question mark in the other months. And it made me think and sort of wonder, speculate, is this messaging to Putin? That he better start negotiating with Trump. No, Putin's a whole different beast. What what that's a message to is the leader of Cuba. Yeah, Cuba is gonna say he's next. And if you follow what the United States Considers to be the four state sponsors of terrorism.
55:33 The only one that remains after Cuba. Is North Korea. You know, every once in a while you come across a product that has such a huge impact on your life that you'd probably describe it as A game changer, and I would say For about thirty to forty percent of my team.
55:50 They would currently describe this product that I have in front of me called KetoneIQ, which you can get at ketone.com. as a game changer. But the reason I became a co owner of this company and the reason why they they now are a sponsor of this podcast is because One day when I came to work, there was a box of this stuff sat on my desk. I had no idea what it was. Lily and my team says that this company have been in touch. So I went upstairs, tried it, and quite frankly, the rest is history. In terms of my focus, my energy levels, how I feel, how I work, how productive I am. Game changer. So if you want to give it a try, visit ketone.com slash Steven for thirty percent off. You'll also get a free gift with your second shipment. And now you can find Keetone IQ at target stores across the United States, where your first shot
56:34 This company that I've just invested in is growing like crazy. I want to be the one to tell you about it because I think it's going to create such a huge productivity advantage for you. Whisperflow is an app that you can get on your computer and on your phone on all your devices and it allows you to speak to your technology. So instead of me writing out an email, I click one button on my phone and I can just speak the email into existence and it uses AI to clean up what I was saying. And then when I'm done, I just hit this one button here and the whole email is written for me. And it's saving me so much time in a day because Whisper learns how I write. So on WhatsApp it knows how I am, a little bit more casual. On email a little bit more professional. And also there's this really interesting thing they've just done. I can create little phrases to automatically do the work for me. I can just say Jack's LinkedIn and it copies Jack's LinkedIn profile for me because it knows who Jack is in my life. This is saving me a huge amount of time. This company is growing Like absolute crazy. And this is why I invested in the business and why they're now a sponsor of this show. And Whisperflow is frankly becoming the worst kept secret in business, productivity, and entrepreneurship. Check it out now at Whisperflow, spot W I S P R F L O W
57:38 Dot AI slash Steven. It will be a game changer for you. Why does The US care about Cuba. What's the context there? What what does the US want with Cuba? Well, Cuba's ninety miles off the coast of Florida for starters. So geographically it's very dangerous. Cuba was where The Soviet Union
57:59 Пут нкліар місіс. They're you know, almost bringing the United States to the brink of nuclear war during the Kennedy administration. It's one of the only countries in the Western hemisphere that does not fall under the United States' sphere of influence. Yesterday. The Cuban government is talking with us and They're in a big deal of cropola as you know. They have
58:21 No money they have no anything right now. But they're talking with us. And maybe we'll have a friendly takeover of Cuba. Oh, exactly. So Trump says that maybe we'll have a friendly takeover of Cuba. He said that two days ago. Mm-hmm.
58:38 So Cuba's next and then North Korea? Do you th they wouldn't North Korea have nuclear though, don't they, Annie? Yes, they do. I I I I always wonder that actually does getting to a point where you have nuclear weapons kind of mean the US will leave you alone. Absolutely. I think that part of all of this is the the sort of elephant in the room is that You cannot, you know, the United States will not let anyone else join the nuclear nine.
59:04 North Korea was the last example of that mistake during the Clinton administration, being told by the leader of North Korea, Oh no, no, we're not gonna have a nuclear program, and then him not you know deciding by sort of committee and all his sage advisors and following and talking to Congress and all that, we're not going to attack North Korea, that would be unacceptable. That was the democratic president Clinton's position. And as a result North Korea developed nuclear weapons and now has nuclear weapons and the and the nuclear weapons systems to strike the United States. And has demonstrated, you know A desire
59:45 If provoked, or actually has said if provoked, it would do so. And so You know you That was not going to happen with Iran, certainly not on this watch, and probably not on any watch. Geopolitically where if you get to nucleons you can do whatever the hell you want. And it's the ultimate deterrence. Yeah, absolutely. You can't mess with somebody who has a nuclear weapon.
1:00:07 And you and you w and you don't. One of my friends was asking me this morning w how the situation with Iran getting nuclear is any different from the situation with North Korea having nucleons, or is it the same? Well it's the same thing, it's only perhaps wor Well now this regime is
1:00:22 But having You know, an Ash correct me on this pronunciation, huh? You know, the idea that the Shire idea that the sort of apocalyptic end is not necessarily a bad thing. Oh the arrival of the Mahdi. Right. Sort of creating the conditions for that to come about. Thinking is this idea, and that's very dangerous to the idea that we don't want to have a nuclear war. Though that regime is not suicidal.
1:00:57 I I I will sort of state that Hamine was was prepared to die for his cause, but he was not suicidal in the sense that he would go out and sort of, you know Um If you could, I don't think, start a nuclear war that he knew his hi his country was gonna uh get destroyed fighting. Uh that is I think you know one distinction. And I'm not saying North Korea is suicidal, but Definitely what remains of the government there is not is not suicidal. Um I don't think there is ideological diehards as we saw in the founding fathers of which Kamine was the last one. So that changes it a little bit now that he's dead.
1:01:28 You know, um there's uh the um Uh a philosopher Eric Hoffer he he sort of wrote that great causes start as movements, then they become businesses, then they become rackets. Okay. So Khomeini moves Homani's movement that started in the seventies, that was the movement. It became a business, a enterprise of which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps profited immensely. Till it became a racket. And now we're at the racket phase of it. And the only one really left are the racketeering leaders. You know, and and because the the the spiritual leaders are now gone. Um what happens next I think is sort of and you know we're now in very much in unknown territory with that.
1:02:02 Andrew, to that point of nucleons, if uh Iran had already violated um many of the things they'd said around nucle weapons and they'd I think they'd have r enriched to sixty percent, roughly. They would have theoretically continued to go. Because they know that if you want the US and other people in the region to stay away from you. You gotta get nucle weapons. And once you get that to that point, then you no one's gonna mess with you. So I think the assumption is that no one will mess with you with nuclear weapons. I don't think that that is going to be the assumption for much longer.
1:02:29 I think that's a good thing. Yeah. Iran recognized that if it could get a path to a deployable Nuclear capability. Whether it's a rocket or whether it's a missile, or even if it's a truck with a nuke in the trunk.
1:02:41 They had options. Sixty percent enrichment they have off I mean that's a dirty bomb. They have options there. I mean with just nuclear waste, they have options to cause real damage. But Enriched military grade. Sustainable.
1:02:55 Kind of permanent state nuclear capability is a much higher level of enrichment than that. And that's arguably what they have in North Korea. Their deployability Their capability for actually putting it on a rocket and having the rocket hit where it's supposed to hit and not blow up on the launch pad is a little bit different.
1:03:11 And for that reason, I think we have to take seriously the fact that If the United States wanted to demonstrate their power against the nuclear capable country They could do it against North Korea. There's also this concept But our current military doctrine under Hegseth has applied that no other president has ever applied.
1:03:29 Department of Defense, Department of War has applied. And that's this idea called burden sharing. According to the Department of War Their doctrine now is a doctrine of burden sharing, which means they will force the burden. Of a national security interest. On American allies.
1:03:46 An example is they go into Iran with a small naval force. They bomb Iran. Knowing very well that Iran is going to spread the pain across our allies in the Middle East. To the United States Department of War, that is us. That is our allies sharing the burden.
1:04:02 If they want to be our allies, they have to do this. Same thing is happening with Ukraine and with Russia. If you want if Europe, if you want to counter Russia, you must share the burden with the United States. It also gives the the United States now. carte blanche to go anywhere it wants with a limited force. Stir up a hornet's nest and then let everybody else pay the price. Well in terms of the Middle East, it it it certainly was an effective move because You know, all of these
1:04:31 Six countries that Iran has now bomb you know attacked. In the past Forty eight hours. are now very angry with Iran.
1:04:40 So the burden sharing has gone from kind of like this is a fight that you're not in to this is a fight we are in. I don't think that anybody has taken any offensive actions against Iran, except But they're not happy. But they're not happy with that. They weren't happy before. Oh, they've but the the the statements they put out are some of the strongest that we've seen. I mean you've never we've never even seen that. We've never seen the Gulf states put out what they've s basically, you know, condemning Iran and holding it responsible. It it's now any pretense that there was a reprochement, there was some sort of a a a coming together is is now shattered. And and that's a setback for whatever's left of the Islamic Republic. The the the power that Iran has over the Middle East is a power of agriculture.
1:05:22 U all the countries that we look at, all the oil collegiate countries can't make their own food. Iran makes their food. So They've always had this weird relationship where they disagree with them politically, they disagree with them religiously, they disagree with them militarily. But they're still allies. Because of food. The United States has sanctions all over Russia, except in one area.
1:05:42 Space. We still cooperate. with Russia. It's a carve out. Because we don't want to lose their access. Do you think we're closer to nuclear war now because of this action? One hundred percent.
1:05:54 So you d you think this has moved us closer, then? And and I've got pr like there's proof of that all over the headlines today, because France is deploying Air launch nuclear warheads. Air launched nuclear warheads. That means small Warheads that fit on the ends of airplane rockets. They're deploying them all over Europe. That means France is now taking its nuclear arsenal and spreading it across its European allies. The more nuclear proliferation.
1:06:21 The more risk of the Ukraine and Iran B. Yeah. That has nothing to do with Iran. It happened two days after that The threat of nuclear war comes from the conflict, in my opinion. Comes from The conflict in Iran from the war in Ukraine and comes from Russia. Because you have an actual superpower. President who has threatened the use of nuclear weapons.
1:06:48 Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapon, so it's not a nuclear тре. You speak a different nuclear language than I do. Russia is launching intercontinental ballistic missiles that can't be intercepted. It's got the oreshnik. What the hell is it gonna be afraid of a warhead on the tip of an airplane? It's not. That's a tactical nuke. That's a battlefield nuke.
1:07:09 My point is that we the deployment of a nuclear weapon. Із нукліар вор. The deployment of a nuclear weapon. If you're talking about mutually assured destruction. Are you talking about the use of a nuclear weapon or are you talking about Putting a war hat on a aircraft. No, that's that's been technology for a long time. Using it in the battlefield. I agree with you a thousand percent. You don't think it's being you think it is being in the battlefield. No, I'm saying it's being deployed. Is that getting us closer to nuclear war? Yes. Yes, but it's but it's not but it's not because of Iran.
1:07:39 It has nothing to do with it, Ron and what are you talking about being deployed because in You're talking about France maneuvering where its weapon is. That is well, then we're talking about it I'm talking about nuclear use. I mean, The United States m deploys its Nuclear forces
1:07:59 all the time by President Trump saying, I'm moving our submarines in which is just talk because they're moving anyways. It's It's The same as po it's threatening when Putin says I'm moving at my nuclear or when he tests, you know, Norway by Uh Popping up.
1:08:18 right offside outside of their shores. Those are maneuvers that are very dangerous. I I absolutely agree. But in this particular case, has the uh even from a Russian perspective, has this war in Iran increased the probability that a Putin would use And you could. No, in my opinion, no. In my opinion, what it does
1:08:43 Wow, this president. is unpredictable. And To some to an authoritarian Person like Putin.
1:08:53 That's a match for him, not someone for him and To walk on. And I think that I'm not I'm not saying that's a great way for world diplomacy whatsoever. It's not diplomacy, it's just you know S it's just strong arming one another, but
1:09:11 But we are not I do not feel at all that this situation makes us closer to a nuclear threat whatsoever. I agree. I think it's a combination of Ukraine and China's um Military exercises and action in the South China Sea. and the whole sort of w you know, what we're not seeing, there's this argument that China's watching what's going on with the US and Iran. Here we are depleting our interceptors, our munitions. China's meanwhile stockpiling you know its resources And is it does this put us at a disadvantage if and when the day comes where China decides to take proactive aggressive action vis a vis Tairan?
1:09:46 That's something to think about, and I think that then I'm worried about the risk of nuclear war. In that instance, I don't think Iran by itself in a vacuum is is moving the needle. on that sort of nuclear Risk meter. To your point, what this is a boon for is the defense contractor world, is the military industrial complex, because, for example, part of Ur why Iran is so weak
1:10:09 is because they've used up so many ballistic missiles. in their conflict with Israel. I I read today the interceptor to missile ratio, something like twenty five to one that the interceptors needed to to to catch these ballistic missiles that Kuwait, the UAE, Israel is using, they're like upwards of of ten, fifteen times more expensive. Yes. Um and and these drones are relatively cheaply made, these shothead drones that they're using, so you know, there is that aspect of it too, that Iran can just Fire. Like a madman all these sort of ex um expendable um munitions, and meanwhile we're spending three, four, five, ten times as much to intercept them. Yes, although you do see in any kind of conflict like this, you always see new weapons on the battle. And and that's what happened now. And you um America actually has been copying the Shahid drones, these cheap we call them the Lucas, these cheap systems that can just go in and, you know, cause havoc without precision, and we deploy them.
1:11:07 So I think this was a I think this was a long time. Sorry to interrupt you, Steve. I I think this is one of the big questions that a lot of people are asking, which is how long can Iran fight for in this war. Um and what does that fight look like? Um the here in these jars you have I think it's the relative amount of
1:11:23 soldiers that each country has. Now obviously soldiers are just goes back to what Obama said about horses and bayonets. They're one form of Um Combat. But I was quite surprised at how big Iran's military is relative to Even the US but other
1:11:38 Um countries in the region. I think they have the biggest military in the region, is that correct? So we have to separate between the IRGC and the national army. They serve two different functions. Revolutionary Guard Corps, not Iranian. What does that mean? It's protecting the Islamic Revolution. It is an ideological army that sits outside of the main structures of power, accountable only to the supreme leader. The national army really goes through the office of the presidency and others and you know, even though the screen leader has a say in it, but the bo the army's job is to protect Iran's borders. The IRGC's job is to protect the revolution and the ideology and the proxies and everything else that we have come to know about Iran. So if we look at the if we look at those if we look at what's in the jar, we have to separate what the national army, which is only its job is to defend the borders, versus the ideological army. I'm curious what that would look like if we took out the national army and are left with the ideological force.
1:12:36 Iran have the largest stockpile in the Middle East of missiles, drones, and air defenses, possessing thousands of ballistic cre cruise missiles and kamikaze drones. This is their primary offensive strength. Um and they have quite a significant defense budget as well. But I guess the question I'm trying to get at is like how long can they fight for? And how does that fight look over time? Because I know they shot they shot hundreds and hundreds of ballistic missiles over the weekend. Yeah. Israel claims that in the in the July in the June war of last year it it um eliminated about half of Iran what it believes to be Iran stockpiles, but also batteries, launchers, basically the capability. So if you whatever it was, let's say they have half of that left. Um I I've seen uh statistics saying that really they can't go at this rate, um uh Iran for more than two to three weeks before they're completely depleted.
1:13:20 Well there's also an interesting move that the United States does while we didn't kill the Supreme Leader. What we did do was send our B twos to take out missile underground missile systems which Iran has. Which are the aircraft, right? N no they're underground. They actually call them missile. Yes, they came from the United States. And this is considerab considerable damage because
1:13:44 The two ways in which these sort of rogue nations, whether it's Kur North Korea or Iran, ha work their missiles is they have them on what are called road mobile launchers so that they can not be tracked. And targeted, or they bury them deeply underground. And one of the only things that can take out those deeply buried missile sites. Is a B two, and that's what the United States said. So Andrew, how how do you think this plays out over the coming weeks and months? Because at some point, yeah, they might run out of missiles, but that doesn't necessarily mean the war is over. I'm presuming that the US don't want to throw soldiers
1:14:17 On the ground. in Iran either. So what how like how does this And that's one of the major Strategic errors that we made in attacking Iran. They have the benefit of time.
1:14:28 Not us. They can choose how to react, when to react, in what way to react. We don't know if they have a dirty bomb that they're finishing up in some underground bunker right now that's just gonna sit there and wait until American boots on the ground show up. The fact that you guys think that That current nuclear deployments have nothing to do with what's going on Iran. It it's I I
1:14:49 Want to respect that opinion? But to мі it shows just a lack of military experience An actual Strategic
1:14:58 Intent to kill. Like when you look at how Military and intelligence operators are trained to think. We are trained to think through a lens of maximum damage. Iran is thinking through the same window right now. And they're watching what we just did in Afghanistan. Don't forget we killed Sama bin Laden
1:15:15 Ideological figurehead of Al Qaeda in two thousand eleven and didn't leave Afghanistan Until two thousand twenty two. When we were when we gave up. That's another eleven years of war after.
1:15:28 The guy that we were supposed to kill to end the war. How is Come in is different. Come in is different. But how different? I don't know yet.
1:15:37 And what are we going to do? The the new leadership in Iran, what's it gonna be? Is it gonna be a leadership that that counts to the United States? That count house to I'm to Israel? Is it gonna be another shadow government like the Shah? Are we gonna place somebody else in the Iranian people are gonna love it? Or are we leaving a vacuum that China and Russia are gonna step into?
1:15:54 We're gonna see a strengthened Iran? That's strengthened by our largest adversaries in the world. This is the reality of what we've got to figure out because Because the whether they launch all their rockets in the next two weeks That doesn't mean that's the end of the fight.
1:16:08 For all we know it's gonna come back and bite us in six months when some Hezbollah Cell. lights New York on fire. We don't know, but when it happens. Arguably it's going to be justified.
1:16:20 To Andrew's point, Iran can wage a war of attrition. It's harder. A war of attrition is basically low level warfare. Think of like death by a thousand cuts, right? I'll just keep poking at you enough to eventually wear you down, destabilize you, weaken you. Whereas what you can do is massive retaliation and these big sort of theatrical strikes. War Vatrician is basically grinding This is something that To his point, Iran is capable of doing and is probably willing to do and sees is the only way that it can survive this is the war of attrition. The war it's it's it's whatever remnant is left. It's how Russia has survived so long.
1:16:56 But but like I'm like who's the lead do you need a leader? Or is it just lots of different pockets of people? Time will tell, and you know, hezbollah's sort of cells around the world will r tell us what happens, but I think another way of looking at it I saw a uh former member of the National Security Council commenting that like, yes, cells could be activated in America or they could just fade away. And this is where I don't have a crystal ball. And I'm just observing what's happening, but I do think that the that all of this hang on the razor's edge of public opinion. Because
1:17:35 You know, we Time will tell whether or not This regime falls, whether what you're say w if it's either or but I don't I don't think that we I don't think that we can know.
1:17:46 Have we been here before to some degree? Too many times. What is the lesson from history that everyone seems to have forgotten? That we are shitty learners of history. Something else that that philosopher I quoted, Eric Hoffer, had said that you know mass movements, they don't need a God. But they do need a devil. So to that effect, the leader doesn't matter as much as having an enemy does. That is the so so basically so long as we the United States or the Western world is framed as the enemy, that is enough. to keep a war of attrition going, absent any figurehead or charismatic leader. And he was a religious figure.
1:18:23 versus just a political figure. He was a religious. But to your point, he was the racketeer at the end. Yeah, I mean he was running I mean effectively. Everyone in most people. Thousands of people have gathered in public squares in Tehran to openly weep and mourn his death. roughly twenty percent of the population are staunch ideological supporters of him. Yeah, twenty percent of many million. Yeah. And it's interesting because you you one can imagine that that twenty percent might Grow? Especially if the ne the coming months make their lives worse in some way. They experience, I don't know, poverty or whatever else and And then you know friends die because of this war. It doesn't take long for narrative to turn and so that's what everyone's been warning about. You strike Iran, this was a warning last June, you strike Iran, you're gonna get rally around the flag. The people that are secularists now are gonna turn and they're gonna start supporting the regime and we're gonna set back the cause of let's say freedom or democracy.
1:19:15 it didn't happen. It turns out that basically the people in Iran blamed the regime for their own for the misery that was that was um put upon them. And so I think that twenty percent will get even smaller as a result, not just of this, it would have gotten smaller anyway. As a result of this I think it'll get even smaller still. Because their salvation is not at the end, you know, of a of a of a turban or a robe. It basically comes with liberty and freedom that this government, this regime won't give them. And so that is I think evident now to the eighty percent of Iranians, all of whom of that mean that you know eighty eighty percent of the population is born after seventy nine. They don't know the old regime. All they know is this one. And what they know is they don't like it. They don't like living under it. And they want anything other than what this is.
1:19:56 You feel different. I I think that that's an overly idealistic way of thinking about it. We failed I'm not saying it's the same. I'm saying that when you when you change the A government from the top down. That doesn't do anything for the people. No one's changing it. There's no nation building. We're not going in and do it. So what's gonna build it? What's gonna change it? The people? The people that have been slaves for basically the last What, forty, fifty years? The people who have had no education, the people who've been marginalized, you think they're just gonna
1:20:32 Understand how to organize them so very, very highly. I mean it's it's one of the most educated populaces of the world, and I have and and they are very the the people that are not regime supporters are very Western thinking. I mean we see this. We see this in in the culture they produce, the media they produce, when they go and they speak around the world. So The populace is there, the capability is there, the will is there. All they need is basically not to be you know, not to be facing the barrel of a gun. We are about to find out if that's true. And that is what That is what we are all writing on right now is whether this in this intellectual minority. In a poverty stricken, economically defunct country
1:21:10 is gonna even fucking stay there. Or whether they're gonna take their brains and their success and their opportunities somewhere else. The the diaspora and everything we're hearing says they are the people are. Why do you trust what you're hearing? Well his family's there, so he's probably worse than the worst thing you can do is trust the people that you have a personal relationship with. They're the least objective people that you can talk to. So who are their eighty percent of the population? Who do you talk to. Exactly. Who do you trust? You can't trust anything that you're hearing right now. You can't trust anything that you're reading right now. The information landscape. Is too tumultuous. Somebody, right? It's not paranoid to it is absolutely paranoid to suggest that everything is misinformation. One would believe, at least I certainly believe, that I have a faculty up here to be able to take information and try and
1:22:02 discern what might be inform d misinformation and what isn't, and then also be willing to stand corrected. That's a very important part of it. And that goes back to my tribal problem is once you have a horse in the race and you become convinced and I am hearing a little convinced And again, I'm not condoning what the administration did whatsoever. I'm just listening to Benjamin and saying that is to my eye a much better source I'm a journalist I'm gonna listen to what people on the ground are saying they're certainly family members because their opinion is gonna be legitimately, you know.
1:22:51 Heartfelt and not Propaganda. Again, we speak a completely different language. When you talk to me about opinion Heartfelt. And family. And belief.
1:23:03 None of those are objective. No, those are big things. I agree. that that doesn't make it objectively correct. It was a rebellion that ended up in the Iran that we just saw fall apart. Andrew where does your skepticism come from? What's it rooted in? Because you did spend almost a decade as an undercover spy for the United States in the CIA.
1:23:26 Where where is the skepticism coming from? Why shouldn't we believe people on the ground who are saying what they're saying? I have seen this stuff firsthand. I've been trained in how this stuff works. I've had to uh deploy this in in pursuit of American goals and ambitions in the past. And and what you're saying Isn't inaccurate. as to how people react people be we just trust the opinion of the people that we we trust the opinion of the people we trust. More
1:23:52 Then we trust the opinion of others only because It's our opinion that they're trustworthy at all. I wanna My information from as As far opposite sources as possible.
1:24:06 And then see where the information confirms itself, where it correlates. Because if you f if you see anti American people saying the same thing as anti Iranian people, where their messages are the same has corroboration. The number of dead leaders as an example. Десса короб, the Iranian state media say that and Pro
1:24:26 US f Western forces talk about it. Well that's it's that's exactly right. It is a black box. So If we know it's a black box, we have to question every source that comes out, every piece of information that comes out. What we're seeing a lot of right now with Iran is called circular reporting. It's one single source of information that comes out that gets multiplied over and over again. We're seeing it happen in the White House, too, because the White House has kicked out so many journalistic legacy media outlets. So now one story gets multiplied over and over again, and we're seeing stuff that's that's repeated. I have to say something. I am I am s a little bit skeptical about what is true.
1:25:04 I I'm like the furthest from ever being a conspiracy theorist, but a little bit skeptical of what's true because I did a post. About this subject. And obviously, I've spent 15 years in social media. So our whole business was building scaling huge social media ordinances. And what I received in my DMs. Was like I've never seen before.
1:25:20 About what? I've heard people talking about bots. for decades. And most of the time that they're actually they're wrong. It's something else going on with the algorithm, or maybe something they don't like they saw, so they call it a bot. I received thousands of And thousands and thousands of DMs when I posted about this subject matter.
1:25:40 And some of those accounts, when you go on the page and you look at their posting history, their engagement, you look at certain patterns, which we've built tools before to kind of um spot. Some of these accounts aren't real. And I I say to my friends, I was like, What the fuck? I posted about this issue. And then I had thousands and thousands and thousands and thousands of these accounts DM me, encouraging me To post more. About certain things. First time in my life ever I go Oh, that was definitely
1:26:03 It was so a An influence operation. Okay, so what were they what were these bots pushing you to post it on? I'm conscious whether I should say or not, because I don't want to infer it. I'm like inferring that a particular but I'm just saying I've never felt more than I experienced that. And I have I mean every this trailer will come out, we'll see loads of bots, we have systems. But this was in my DMs. It was encouraging someone like me who has a big platform to push a certain narrative. And the the the only reason I noticed is because of the sheer volume. And then the narrative was almost identical. And I think well one thousand seven hundred different accounts have all asking me to do the same thing. So you have final control over the f the edit of this. Yeah. So there's no
1:26:44 If you don't if you don't want what you say to get edited to get sh to get aired. Then it'll get cut. But one way or the other, whatever you say. Like I I want you to say what you saw because If the narrative was anti Iran. Then you were attacked by Western forces.
1:26:57 Western bots attacking a known Westerner. If you were If you were Propped up. Bye.
1:27:03 Pro Iranian. cyber bots then now you're talking about a cyber capacity, a cyber capability in Iran that nobody's talking about. So one way or the other thing. But I just it made what it's stu my point was that it's made me skeptical about Mm my own information chamber? And I'll be honest.
1:27:22 Before I realised what was going on, very persuasive. Alright. Very persuasive. to push a certain narrative and it just took it took me a second to pause and thought actually maybe Wouldn't that be a perfect strategy in these moments to get people who have big platforms to just bump bomb their DMs and tell them that
1:27:43 You know, like why aren't you s standing up for us and please use your voice to um to speak on this particular issue. And I thought actually maybe I I need a I need my information from somewhere else. Well, I think the point that you're making, which is very important, has to do with, you know mimetics or popularity. In other words
1:28:02 What we don't know the outcome of the situation yet. We don't know if the Hezbollah sleeper cells will be activated. Are they waiting to see whether what they do will be Welcomed or will be demonized. And I think That
1:28:18 There's не profound influence in social media. And that isn't true in this administration and and previous administrations about The rise of pushing public opinion. I mean that w uh to your point, that's what you worked on at the agency or you at least saw happen. The fact is I'm I'm glad that you're
1:28:37 Seeing it for yourself. You can't trust What you see. First of all, if you're a single language person, you only see what's in your language. You don't see what's in a different language. And then we all have an echo chamber around us and the the the fact that we have so much technology just amplifies our echo chamber.
1:28:54 Our our algorithm sees what we see, it sees what we like, it sees what we pause longer on than something else, and it gives us more of that. And people become very wealthy and very successful. understanding h the behavior that people prefer. And you give people more of what they already prefer. And then it makes them happier, and they don't even realize they're sitting inside of an echo chamber. So for all of these reasons. I don't trust the information I see. I don't trust information unless multiple sources of conflicting values and conflicting priorities and conflicting goals where they say the same thing, I'll give that more credence. And if you can't get those sources because information information then you can't have a conclusion.
1:29:31 So you can have a living assessment. So do you not do not operate if you're a foreign policy decision maker, if you're a president, if you're a national security advisor, you have to give advice and consent. You have to figure out something. You can't say I have a lack of evidence or I have a lack of t um opinion or a lack of information and therefore Because they can't corroborate or verify there's no Venn diagram of um overlapping views. That's when you have you have to use time as a tool. You have to use time. to to be the tool that you use to collect more information.
1:30:00 If you if you give up time, you give up one of your most important tools, which is what we're giving up. with this attack we're giving up time so that we can potentially just fit a ta a calendar. January, February, March. Like That's why what what did we actually gain? What how did the United States actually tangibly benefit?
1:30:20 From what just happened. In Iran. If in the United States, how did we If in four months from now, before the midterm elections There is new leadership in Iran, entirely new. If there is regime change. In other words, if there is by the president's own metrics victory.
1:30:36 Okay. Will you change your tune on this? What if it's not evident right now? What if it is in four months? Yeah, I'm it it's a living assessment. So of course, if for all for all we know, the president's decision is gonna work out. But for all we know it's gonna get worse. For all we know it won't be four months, it'll be four years of of Of a drought and poverty stricken and Iranians dying, civilians dying because they can't find food and water. The seventy nine revolution took two years to happen, really began late seventy seven, and then you had a sort of reign of terror almost like the you know Thermidorian Robespierre period in early Iranian uh in the uh early eighties, where it took really four or five years for all the dust to settle.
1:31:13 Well but uh so the question is do you want Where are my results? Right? It's only been a little bit more. No, no, what are my what what are we gaining? What do we even think we're gonna gain? What does what does the United States think it's going to gain? From f from decapitating Well that that's kind of obvious based on what the president has said. It's that I'm just saying based on what the president says, I'm not but if you ask what the point was, according to the president, because he's the one who authorized the
1:31:41 It was Putting an end to Iran's nuclear program. And Regime change. I mean to base it off of what the president said, the nuclear program was Obliterated in June of last year. But there's an attempt to reconstitute it. They were looking to rebuild these facilities. Why are you why are you disregarding
1:32:00 Previous narratives to adopt the current narrative. Because w if I've learned nothing from seventy nine is that the previous narratives were wrong. The assessments were wrong. So I don't trust the assessments either, but there's satellite imagery that shows oh there's reconstruction happening at um Esfahan or Natans or wherever. We can see trucks moving, we can see buildings coming up, right? Somebody's just something is going on. And Mm. It's impossible.
1:32:28 To to practically say No, no, no. Iran didn't want a nuclear weapon. They just wanted to have electric power. I mean nuclear power. You know, I think That's that's not that's not really not a plausible Assessment. That's what the OD and I put into their official report. Then why are they doing that? They don't need more than twenty percent. So why so how and it's a ra it was a racket, it is a racket. And we're talking about Tulsi Gabbard as a head of DNI. Exactly, exactly, which is a great point.
1:32:59 And we're not going to be able to do it because she is a Trump supporter. Well, you have not heard from her. Yeah. Yeah. But y do you do think there was any risk of Iran developing ure uranium to the point that they could use it as a nuclear? Because if you look at the timeline here, Um, which I'll throw up on the screen, which is just a screenshot. By twenty twenty-one, they were at a dangerous threshold. Iran begins enriching uranium to sixty percent purity, which is a short technical step away from the ninety percent needed for a weapon. And by
1:33:26 twenty twenty three to twenty twenty five, we were told that they were theoretically weeks away. From being able to Create a weapon. Which is when Trump decided to attack. You think that's false. We only know what we're being told.
1:33:39 And what we're being told isn't even consistent between what's publicly being released by our own government and what we're being told in mainstream media. I don't know. I don't know if it's false. Well just look at North Korea if you want to know if it's false. I mean I interviewed Bill Perry, the secretary of defense, who went there and got the guarantee and the promise from the dear leader there was no chance they were gonna develop a nuclear weapon. Fingers crossed behind the back, and thermonuclear weapon and look where we are now. And so I think it would be foolhardy for this administration or any former administration to think that that Iran wasn't doing the same thing. It has every incentive to do it. If I were Iran, I would absolutely do you know absolutely build one.
1:34:24 Because look what I did for North Korea. I I'm not trying to say that Iran wasn't creating nuclear weapons. I'm saying that The official stance of the ODNI was that it was not.
1:34:36 The official sense they want you to see. Yeah, to go to the case. Now we're getting now. Now we're getting closer to the same point. Right. Why would the president say something different than what the OD and I is saying to the public? That is a failure in narrative control. There's an inconsistency there and that's the question. We agree on that. We agree. So what do you think is actually going on? I asked you this at the top, but clearly you're pointing at some some sort of ulterior motive. So I think what's happening here is that we are seeing An administration that
1:35:06 doesn't actually know how to Government. And they're they're trying to find a way to грапл бак сам сенсов сусес In the face of
1:35:16 Overwhelming. contributing failures, economic failures. Al alliance failures power struggles all over the world. We are we are seeing a transition to a strong man. Multipolar world.
1:35:29 What's a strongman multipolar world. It's what she was just talking about with Putin and Russia, right? You when you act in strong authoritarian ways. And people respect your authoritarian behaviors. by giving you safety and giving you security. then that's strongman diplomacy. And why does that matter? What happens next? Because that's not cooperative. That creates conflict. That creates more opportunities for conflict, less opportunities for communication, less shared common interest, which is a pathway to more what we call Interstate war, which is conflict between states, because they're not communicating, they're not sharing, and they're not even reliant on each other.
1:36:06 Therefore it's easier for war to break out. I have a sort of pessimistic Which is an alternative to the what was you know, what was h what is happening in Iran right now, which is what would happen, what could happen, and what might happen in the United States. And to your point that where you said this administration doesn't know how to govern
1:36:28 I would Separate from that, whether that's true or not, I would say this administration Think Very Futuristically.
1:36:36 About Surveillance systems and systems of control. And you can see that with ICE and with Homeland Security. And my concern would be that R red teaming or round tabling all the different blow possible blowback. Well what if we have hezbollah sleeper cells.
1:36:55 you know, set off a dirty bomb in the United States or do something. In the eyes of some A perfect opportunity to create more of a surveillance state in the United States to use Biometric surveillance platforms. Against United States citizens because it's the only way.
1:37:17 To control And to So you can you can you be a bit more explicitly clear that you're saying that Well the d you you in other words Bio the sort of I always just look at things because I
1:37:34 Consider weapon systems a lot and understand where we have come from. You know, nuclear weapons are the weapons of the past. Um Surveillance systems are the weapons of the present and drones. What's the weapon systems of the future? I mean, you're there's a serious, you can just look at what happened with anthropic and open AI and the defense department. the day before all of this went down. So you're saying they're using this as a way to introduce mechanisms potentially on United States. And I'm I'm not saying that per se. I'm saying one hypothetical scenario that I can see is red teaming a bad outcome is not necessarily a bad outcome. Like if there were a problem in the United States as a result of this, we could counter that with
1:38:18 legitimate reasons for more surveillance systems. Do you think people sit around and say that? I know they do. I mean, y I don't think you can ever forget that the Department of Homeland Security, which by the way was like the big issue in the United States, uh you know, just a couple weeks ago. for those of the younger generation did not exist before nine eleven. It was an absolute byproduct of America being attacked. So you're thinking that this Iranian situation could give them cover to
1:38:50 track and surveillance US citizens more. It would create I would change the word from cover to opportunity. Because I do think that's the way the systems work inside the you know, executive branch. And I think that there is a Always
1:39:08 An extremely powerful and hidden hand that has to do with Weapons developers. And this sets us up for a false dichotomy. It's basically you can have security or liberty, you can't have both. So which one do you want?
1:39:26 You're biting your tongue there a little bit. No, he's a hundred percent right. And and the The consternation that I'm feeling about this whole situation Is really tied to the fact that we had a chance to not.
1:39:38 Exacerbate. The security situation of our planet. By just not attacking Iran. We could have not exacerbated the security conflict for Every other country, only Iran was struggling with their own decision about what they were gonna do with themselves. Now We have put
1:39:55 Dozens of countries at risk, active, current risk, near term risk. There are people dead today that would not have been dead had we not sent bombs into Iran. There's been property damage. There are markets damaged. There are life height like livelihoods are being damaged. There are thirty thousand dead today who wouldn't have been dead if we'd done this in nineteen eighty. You're never gonna hear me say that I really care that much about an Iranian life. compared to in American life. That's just not how I roll. This is my priority. This is my citizenship. I don't begrudge you that, by the way. I I totally and it's not that my loyalty is elsewhere, but I'm saying you're not saying there are people that are dead. You're talking about the four Americans? You're talking about
1:40:34 Uh Arab citizens of the various. Absolutely the four Americans, but also the Arab cities, right? And if we want to like The When we start counting death toll. We start to lose sight of the fact that we all have to live in a prioritized world. It's like we talk about the thirty thousand dead Iranians, we we haven't said anything about the Palestinians that died in Gaza. Right? There's a lie a life is a life. Practically speaking, a life is equal, a life is a life, it's a tragedy to lose any human being. So you still have to prioritize that on top of another. So can we interchange them with the four
1:41:04 Potential lives that were lost as a result of the Austin shooting that happened yesterday? Sure. A an American life that's lost is an American life that's lost, and the priority should be on protecting American lives. Including protecting Americans from themselves? Absolutely. That's one thing that we're not resourcing right now because our resources are going somewhere else. Which is my point about I think You know, the real place to look at this is is is surveillance in the United States. Surveillance in the United States is is one hundred percent a guaranteed future.
1:41:33 Mass surveillance has already happened. It will it will just get exacerbated, expanded, and legalized. It's already there. It's just the government has to buy their data from your Apple phone. They can't just pull it on their own. I think it's probably worth introducing the Anthropic piece here just because some people won't have context. In July 2025, Anthropic, who are a big AI company, one of the biggest in the world, the most exciting in the world, and one of the most advanced in the world, signed a$200 million deal to build AI tools for US national security. Um, in february twenty twenty six, which was last month, the Pentagon demanded Anthropic's AI be available for all military purposes, but Anthropic refused to allow autonomous weapons or mass surveillance of American citizens. This dispute started after the US military used Claude Um in its read to capture
1:42:19 Claude is a a tool made by Anthropic. And I am a tool made by Anthropic. They used Claude in a raid to capture Venezuelan president Nicola Nicolas Maduro in January. Um which anthropics had violated its terms of use.
1:42:32 The defense secretary Pete Hegser threatened to cancel the contract and brand Anthropic a supply chain risk unless it dropped its safety restrictions and stopped telling the US how to use Anthropic's AI. And that started a big conversation which is raising raging online around mass surveillance. Which is one of the things Anthropics said it didn't want America using with its AI. I mean I think
1:42:56 It's a convenient narrative to position one giant AI company as somehow moral because it went up against the Defense Department and another one not because it didn't, because like you said in there, Anthropic was part and parcel to the Maduro raid. So I don't I don't believe that corporations, certainly AI corporations
1:43:18 you know, are sitting around with a violin for American surveillance. I just don't I mean Americans sort of general well being altruistic. No, of course not. And I think that narrative is dangerous. There was a research piece done by King's College in London where they ran simulations on Cold War style war games using Chat GT Claude and Gemini, which are three AI tools. Each played the leader of a nuclear armed superpower. And in every single simulation. At least one of the AI models escalated the crisis by threatening to use nuclear weapons. Claude, which is owned by Anthropic, recommended nuclear strikes in sixty-four percent of games, which was the highest rate among all three of those AI models. But stopped short of advocating for a full strategic nuclear exchange or nuclear war.
1:44:02 Yeah. Wasn't that the plot of the war movie War Games in the nineteen eighties? Bingo. I mean that's Skynet. And so these are major concerns. Um Many of our former generals who were heads of um you know, cyber and NSA are on the boards of these companies. I've had conversations with a number of them about this. I think
1:44:24 smart people are and and and learned people are on are aware of like this is a absolute Cliffhanger precipice.
1:44:36 Uh just making myself a delicious coffee. From the freezer? From the freezer, have you not heard about Conti? No. Oh my gosh.
1:44:44 This is gonna change your life. I invested in this company called Cometeer last year and then I'm one of the sponsors of this podcast because they've taken a pretty revolutionary approach to making coffee. Every coffee is precision brewed at ten times the strength. And then they flash freeze it With liquid nitrogen to lock in the flavour and freshness. And then it's delivered to you on dry ice in these recyclable aluminium capsules still frozen. Like a nice cube. All you have to do is pop The
1:45:13 Happen out. Add some hot water. And then you stir it and you are good to go. You can also make delicious iced coffee drinks as well. Just pour it in. Stir it up. And for anyone that hasn't tried it, you can get thirty dollars off your first order of Cometeer coffee if you go to cometeer dot com slash Steven.
1:45:37 We have finally caved in. So many of you have asked us if we could bundle the conversation cards with the one percent diary. For those of you that don't know, every single time a guest sits here with me in the chair, they leave a question in the diary of a CEO, and then I ask that question to the next guest. We don't release those questions in any way. environment other than on these incredible conversation cards. These have become a fantastic tool for people in relationships, people in teams, in big corporations, and also family members to connect with each other. With that, we also have the 1% diary, which is this incredible tool to change habits in your life. So many of you have asked if it was possible to buy both at the same time, especially people in big companies. So what we've done is we've bundled them together and you can buy both at the same time. And if you want to drive connection and instill habit change in your company, head to thediary.com to inquire and our team will be in touch. What is your most likely scenario that would lead to A nuclear war. Like'cause you you wrote the book on this stuff, that you know, you're you're you're the person everybody thinks of when we think about a s the scenario that nuclear war could break out.
1:46:41 Of all the potential routes there. Which one do you think is the most likely? I do think that North Korea is very dangerous. I think Putin is I would have told you five years ago that Putin would
1:46:53 you know, he's an int former intelligence officer. He's familiar with history. He kn he knows better. And now I would I have a changed opinion about that. I think it's very dangerous and I think that Hmm. You know, his use of the reshnk was sort of like a Like that that was a ballistic missile that is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. There wasn't a nuclear warhead in it. He did notify the State Department prior to the launch of that, you know, thirty minutes prior, but that's like incredibly dangerous. So Everything is dangerous. Any nuclear armed nation that
1:47:26 ha you know, threatens nuclear weapons is dangerous. But AI is its own extraordinary level of danger. And the article that you wrote speaks to that. Now my understanding is Currently everybody knows that. You know. air quotes. And then when you learn when I learned about the
1:47:46 Department of War Anthropic AI late at night. battle over Using AI in these systems, I was I was Surprised.
1:47:57 Because I thought there was more restraint on that and what I see in this administration. Yes. And to see sort of the br the same bravado that we do agree on is coming out of this administration. About Exerting power about um just being able to do a decapitation strike effectively.
1:48:19 Using AI, I I go, wow, that is Not what I expected. The interesting thing with Trump generally is that He
1:48:29 has a reputation of saying and doing things that at one point we would have all gone, Oh my God, but we've almost become so used to these things. That there's almost a desensitization to some degree. Shattering of norms, they call it, right? He also contradicts himself. I mean that's not even a qu I mean, he's spoken on the record about how uh I mean I think he put out a video in twenty eleven Might be wrong on the date. Like attacking Obama for you know and saying that he was going to attack Obama. Twenty in twenty thirteen there's there's a there's a tweet that he posted saying
1:48:59 Attacking Iran is showing that you failed at negotiations and you know something to that effect. So here we are talking about how important it is to change your mind, maybe if you're not the pr maybe not if you're the president of the United States. And in terms of sort of military action and the use of AI and all these things and autonomous weapons. It we feel like we're going down a slippery slope. In a way that I haven't felt for the other thirty three years of my life as it relates to geopolitics and war. And also generally when you think about some of the actions that and speeches at Davos where the U the US leaders were saying to the Europeans, Listen, you guys are weak now. And we it was sounded to me saying like you guys are wait get your shit together, figure out your energy situation, we don't need you anymore. Listen, we're not gonna quit we're gonna run this now. And this whole idea of special relationship, blah, blah, blah, it seems to have gone out the window. So you've got an emboldened United States military and leadership who seem to be able to do what the fuck they want. If you don't let us use your AI how we wish, we'll smash your company. We'll take away that two hundred million contract and we'll cut you off from the rest of the supply chain.
1:49:59 And we get used to it, you know, we hear the head and go, Oh, that's crazy though. And then we kinda get desensitized again, as humans do. But the direction of travel is something's sometimes what you want to look at. Yeah. Versus just the st this sort of static state of where we are. I think you have Hit the nail on the head with that. I agree. I think you've got I think you've got a a much clearer picture.
1:50:19 than most, Steve, on what's going on here. The United States It has to. Pursu AI. Far more aggressively.
1:50:27 Then what What the what the CEOs of these companies want. I actually do believe there's quite a bit of altruism in the CEOs and the founders of these AIs. They didn't create these AIs so they could be warmongers. They created these AIs for some Techy beautiful vision of some utopian future. Facebook.
1:50:46 for to to to cause teens to feel bad about themselves to create a different way for people to connect. Or something else, exactly. Right, right. Look what happens. That's yeah. Yeah, unintended consequences. Yeah. So, regardless of what the United States' opinion is about AI. It also has to very realistically look at how China is developing AI. And China is already Ten X more aggressive than the United States is. And if they crack the code on certain types of AI, like
1:51:11 Like uh artificial general intelligence or recursive uh uh recursive self improvement. If it breaks the code on these first. It's an exponential. Head start. over the United States. And all of their AI Everything that we have some sort of reticence about using automated or uh autonomous weapons, mass surveillance, China's already using. So
1:51:32 The the number one strategic priority. Consistently in all documentation is China. So the United States has to aggressively pursue AI. Yes, I I understand that mindset. It is absolutely ludicrous to think
1:51:45 That one day an AI helps us. take the leader of Venezuela and then the next day we claim it's a supply chain risk. That's just That's the kind of lunacy that we live in every day. But But the my my bottom line concern here is that the United States used to be the leader of the free world. We're not a leader.
1:52:02 Of the world at all. We're adopting more autocratic behaviors because we're seeing other countries succeed with autocratic behaviors and we're abandoning Europe which is the only place left trying to say that democracy still counts. Like we are We are not leading anymore. We are
1:52:18 mimicking, we are reacting, we are Petulance, but we are not. Leading. I'm still thinking about your doomsday scenario with uh deathbed Vladimir Putin and what he might do. Is that Like realistic.
1:52:30 Is it realistic, you know? It's like from hell's heart I stab at thee. I mean it it it it I don't know. Well, it's realistic anymore. I again these these norms that are shattered, these restraints, these these guardrails that we think no, a leader wouldn't do this or someone wouldn't do that. I'm beginning to question all of it too. Um, I don't know anymore what what someone is or isn't capable of and I think
1:52:52 humans have a discomfort with cognitive dissonance where you know holding two opposing viewpoints at once, we've gotten, I think, worse at it, um evolutionary over over time, and our politicians are the worst yet, or our war leaders are the are are the worst at it yet. And so that's a cause of concern for me. I always think that w what has someone got to lose and what have they got to gain? And if you've got a couple of days left of your life or couple of days left in office and you're I don't know, Trump's gonna be what, eighty three by the time he gets out of office or something. Yeah, why does he care if he pushes a button and does whatever. At which point. Yeah, you know. And the same with Putin, at some point he's gonna be old.
1:53:26 And he's gonna have a couple of you know, couple of weeks left in his life. He's gonna be reflecting on his legacy and he's got nothing to lose. Trump's got nothing to lose with there's no second term. Well, Well. Well he he I w watched him the other day taking great admiration to the fact that
1:53:41 Zelinsky. Can't be there can't be elections in Ukraine because there's a war going on? And I think he cracked a joke saying that he would kinda like that, that if there was a US war going on Then there wouldn't be elections. Uh.
1:53:54 It sounded like a joke. Yeah. A lot of things have sounded like jokes before that he said, so What is your um what do you think happens next? And also I I wanted to get your take on you know, we've got this map here which shows where
1:54:07 around can strike with their missiles. I've got friends in Dubai. Never in my life did I think bombs would be dropping on Dubai or any strikes or drones would be happening in Dubai. And one of my best friends was in a In the basement in a bunker the two nights ago, because of what's going on. That whole region has been hit. The Dubai Airport has been hit. Saudi Arabia has been hit. And Brain's been hit. What does this do?
1:54:29 What does this do to the region and why are I run hitting these places? So this is part of the burden sharing strategy that The United States military doctrine has in place put in place. And I think to a certain extent All of the region already knew they were on Iran's radar. They they've all had this weird hostile
1:54:48 collaborative relationship with Iran. out of necessity because Iran is the breadbasket of the Middle East. So they've known That there's always the risk. But I don't think they ever took that that particular risk.
1:54:59 Seriously. What do they care about? They are lowering the pain threshold. The deputy foreign minister said we can't strike Americans in America. We can maybe strike Americans at their bases in these Arab states, and we can also strike the states that are that are hosting Americans, American civilians, American military, American contractors, you name it.
1:55:24 They're all complicit. It's lashing out. Because what happens is if you make it miserable for everybody Then the United States is pressured to bring this to an end. So they're going to be able to do it. Anyway, what do they have to lose? They're gonna take everyone down with them because only if that threat is real Well the United States say, Okay, you know what, we're gonna pause and see if we can get back to diplomacy.
1:55:47 And it might work. If the Arab states, you know, decide that okay, we're not gonna sustain this, we're not gonna fight back. We need this to end. United States, you have to stop what you're doing. So we could see a lot of the conflict actually taking place in some of these neighboring countries, terrorist attacks, et cetera. It's working. It's working. It's causing pain. Yeah.
1:56:05 to these sort of peripheral countries that are not central to this conflict. And look at what the United States has done, arguably, right? Yep. And one of the unintended Well,
1:56:13 maybe intended consequences is if I turn on the news in the UK right now. The narrative is that this region, Dubai, all of these places, Abu Dhabi, it's all unsafe. And what that means is they're showing the sky news are going up to families in Dubai and going, How are you feeling? And they're going, I'm stuck. I just want to get home. And this region have spent a lot of money building their reputation over the last couple of decades. uh their tourist economy. And i this is gonna even if the the war was to stop today, there'll be a big cohort of people that choose not to go there on holiday and choose not to go and relocate there. And that will reverberate.
1:56:47 Um One can argue. But it's actually in you know. this narrative that the Middle East is unsafe, one could argue that that's actually in The interests of the
1:56:56 The UK and It's gonna drive down the price to real estate. Yeah. Yeah, and drive up our tax receipts. Because we have a lot of I think it's the biggest place that UK taxpayers have gone to and millionaires have gone to is this region. So
1:57:09 No, you're not I don't think you're wrong. I think that there's uh whether or not I I don't believe that Western countries want to see death and destruction in the Middle East. I don't believe that. Um I do think that
1:57:23 When they plan for blowback. They account for that and they try to make the best opportunity out of the blowback that they already expect. And that does make sense. Um
1:57:33 But at the at the end of the day, Iran has to do something to react. And it knows that it can't just send all of its rockets at the fleet that's off the coast of Oman because the fleet that's off the coast of Iman is going to be able to intercept most of those rockets. So if they want some kind of effective response the most effective response they can have is to share the pain. And create some sort of international Resistance against
1:57:54 what the United States has done. How long do you think this goes on for Angie, if you had to guess? If I had to guess, I would say that there's gonna be an active hot conflict with Iran that lasts A few weeks. hot conflict meaning every day we wake up and we see new rockets being launched and new new attacks, new new air sorties being launched. But uh but the actual reverberations of this
1:58:15 from Hezbollah, from Hamas, from the Houthis, from Whatever Loyal Stanchons still exist in Iran, we could see that for years. There There's no guarantee that Iran's gonna bounce back from this in a better place. I hope it will.
1:58:29 But hope is not the same thing as Reality hope is just hope. I hope that it will, but in the vacuum we could see The biggest adversaries to the United States flood in and support Iran, like the biggest adversaries in the world flood in and support Afghanistan. We might see that we have even less. influence over the region in the future than we do now. Is there some uh an issue of the distraction this is causing to what's going on in Ukraine and in other parts of the world where there was already conflict and there was already turmoil? Like are people now not going to pay attention to Ukraine so that that gives Putin some cover to
1:58:59 Be more aggressive there and It absolutely emboldens every authoritarian ruler out there. Because now they've it's been it's validating to them that they're not actually doing anything wrong. If the president of the United States can do it, then certainly
1:59:11 the Putin can do it and Xi Jinping can do it and and any warlord in Africa can do it. It's it's certainly it's allowed. Or on the flip side, it's showing that if you act outside of international norms That The United States president will not hesitate to decapitate your entire leadership. Which is something
1:59:27 maybe we didn't think was conceivable a couple of weeks ago. So there's that inverse message is it conceivable that both Might a car. Yeah, probably it sounds to me like that might be the most likely outcome that you're probably gonna go one of either ways. You know, ch China might say, Now's a good time to get Taiwan because I mean I mean Objectively speaking, people are distracted. It's a perfect time for someone to try to assassinate the people. But then Cuba might say how they're gonna behave. Exactly. Because look what happens if we don't.
1:59:52 What do you think, Annie, on this subject of what happens next, most likely? I mean I'm To that end I would say how fascinating is it that what happened with Maduro in January still shocks me. A hundred and fifty.
2:00:07 Paramilitary or military and intelligence officers go in. Grab The sovereign leader and his wife in a heavily fortified military base. Take out his You know, guardsmen.
2:00:23 who are actually Cuban. I mean there's just so many Things to unpack in what I just said about what just happened. And yet That's just old news. That and that to me is
2:00:39 More interesting than what might happen in the future. Not be because I'll um I can I can try and Wrap my head around and The past
2:00:50 But I can't predict the future. But I am I do believe they they correlate with one another and only after time you know, it's the old hindsight is is is twenty twenty. It will make how Iran unfolds
2:01:05 You know, maybe we'll get the band back together in five months and have a discussion and we'll all be wrong. I I don't know. Separate question, but do you think Trump's gonna leave office? I mean the Constitution says he is. Do you think he will? The Constitution says he is.
2:01:22 Do you think he will? I don't have a crystal ball. Do you think he'll leave office? I do. Do you think you'll be both? I do. You do. I have more confidence after last week's um
2:01:32 learning resources Supreme Court opinion. that we saw two justices who Trump appointed who basically defied A policy that that was the signature of his of his second term. Yeah, his campaign, his his tariffs and saying that you don't have that power. I was emboldened. I I would have been more pessimistic. But after seeing that, I it gave me a little bit more hope.
2:01:52 that that that there is still sort of uh guardrails and separation of powers is still a thing. What do you think happens next in the region? I'm with Andrew. I think three to four weeks is the timeline I see for the actual kinetic war. And then after that, um every one of these Iranian leaders, whoever's left, whoever steps in and fills a role of a whether it's a military junta that takes over, whether it's a symbolic supreme leader, these are all marked men. They're all going to be targeted for assassination. There is no by Israel, by Primary but pretty much anybody that considers um them enemies. E even maybe now some of the Arab states for that matter. At the end of the day Uh it doesn't pay to be uh a political or religious figure in Iran.
2:02:31 So at this point I think what we're going to see in the months to come is a slow fracturing of that support. And I'm not surprised if we start seeing defections from the IRGC. And people just like we saw during nineteen seventy nine saying, You know what? It's not worth it. There's nothing there's no there's no long term gain here. because this rel regime has lost any credibility domestically. There's none left. Zero.
2:02:52 And it's losing credibility in the region. It violated an unspoken agreement with its Arab neighbors that they don't directly fight each other in this way. And its allies, so called allies, have abandoned it. It has nothing left. So when you have nothing left. What is there to fight for?
2:03:07 That's why but that's gonna take a few months up to a year to play out. What is the most important thing that we should have talked about that we didn't talk about, Andrew? As it relates to all of the stuff we talked about today. I think for me. What I'm always what I always come back to is
2:03:21 What Is the future for The average American. What does it look like for us? Yep. I'm not sure how this
2:03:29 plays out. I I'm not sure that we improved the state of the average American very much in the last few days. I don't know that we will see much improvement in the next few weeks. I don't know that we will see much improvement in the next few years. Um, because of what actions we took in Iran. But I do confirm, I agree with what the other two have said. Like with the United States administration has shown
2:03:49 It's powerful in Venezuela. It's powerful in uh in Iran. Cuba's already More than whispered about as the next
2:03:59 The next transition in government How how much chaos are we going to see? to the existing world establishment. Before Trump then leaves office and somebody else has to come in and pick up the mess. And I've always been concerned not about Donald Trump. But about who comes after Donald Trump.
2:04:17 Why? Because if Donald Trump paves the way for this authoritarian type of shift. And if he has support through his final days in office, then whoever comes next will have even more legitimacy to come in with a strong hand from the beginning. And potentially a world Where only authoritarian actions
2:04:35 Work. And that just continues to take us down a road of pain. I I've been talking to you about this for the better part of three years. That I believe the United States I believe the world And especially the United States is is Coming into one of its darkest decades.
2:04:48 Ever. This is the world that we live in now. A world where it's not unipolar. A world of AI technologies we can't predict, of conflict that we can't anticipate. Of mass surveillance of Of
2:05:00 The breaking of international norms. This is the world we are coming into now. It's the world that our children are going to be developed in. It's the world that one day they will have to create their own future in and and our grandchildren will inherit whatever's left of it after that. His It's sad to me to see that this is where we are. And unless we take some sort of responsibility for our own future.
2:05:21 We will keep following This authoritarian trend. But isn't this better than the past? I would say no. A unipolar world where the United States is a supreme power as an American. That is a better world.
2:05:33 But at least you won't die of dystentry out in the wilderness, right? Yeah, I mean that's kinda what people say, right? They say, Well babies aren't dying anymore in uh at childbirth and You know, peop less people are struggling with poverty, so So it's a better Depends what metric you're measuring, I guess, but
2:05:51 Mm. On that point of the transition after Trump leaves Would it be worse if A weak leader came in. Because I'm I'm wondering, look, we know Putin's still gonna be there.
2:06:01 We know a lot of these other powers are still gonna be there. Biden didn't strike me as the The scariest guy in the world. The mo the the toughest guy in the world didn't strike me as the toughest guy in the world. So if another figure like Biden came into power after Trump Once with that war raging over there and with, you know, China
2:06:19 Um mm thinking about Taiwan, et cetera. Is that not even more dangerous? I think there's a difference between a strong leader and a strong arm. A strong leader can chart a path, keep a vision. Make hard decisions.
2:06:32 Balance priorities, keep people focused, where strong arm. Is out to win. And Donald Trump His entire career. He's been the man who's out to win.
2:06:43 I again I don't think this is a Trump issue. I don't think this is a Trump problem. I don't think Donald Trump is some villain of the world. I just think Donald Trump Is the manifestation of how most Americans felt at the time that they elected him. Which was like
2:06:56 We want to win. And now We're realizing that two years after the second time that we wanted to win. There are other secondary consequences that we hadn't considered. And that's why so many of the
2:07:08 kind of groups that supported Donald Trump have changed flavor about him. It's why his approval rating is so low. Because he's found a way to ostracize so many of the groups that used to support him because they didn't realize that He was more complex than what they had originally thought. Back in That November oof. Honey?
2:07:26 Most important thing we should have talked about that, didn't? I'm gonna pick up on Andrew's c thought about a strong leader versus a strong arm, because it's so important to think about moving forward. And is that even possible, you know? Yes, we absolutely cannot have a weak leader. I mean look what happen with Putin moving into Ukraine, taking Ukraine, attacking Ukraine. And I I I think that You know
2:07:52 Who wants to be president? There's also this idea of you You know, you look at the records of how people say come into office how they how they campaign saying what they are I'm going to get rid of these dangerous nuclear policies, I'm going they have all kinds of optimistic ideas about things, and then something happens in that first briefing. Something none of us know.
2:08:16 so mysterious and they never talk about and then po their policies and their their perspective deeply changes. And I think people move from an idea that they can be a strong leader to the idea that they have to be a strong arm. And I think that's That's deeply depressing to me, and I am an eternal optimist, so I want to see that change. Presumably they're being made aware of the real threats.
2:08:41 that they face, that the US faces, and suddenly what was, I don't know, theoretical becomes Very real. Perhaps. And so the I who loves narrative, the question is, what is that narrative? And anything that is kept absolutely secret. I want to know about. And I I no one knows that answer. No president has ever spoken of it. So what is that narrative? What are they told? It's definitely not aliens.
2:09:07 That's a conversation for another time. Benjamin? Um Here.
2:09:15 Right here. Taiwan. So I've been working on a simulation, a war game that looks at Something that's come up in the news now. What happens if we don't need China to invade Taiwan? We need China to just blockade. And completely cut off ninety percent of the
2:09:31 chips and microprocessors and and um all the things we need in this AI age into the West. What the hell do we do? under that scenario we don't have the infrastructure, the capacity, the resources. to bring everything back online that we need. to to fabricate and make these chips. Um
2:09:46 We talked about China a bit, but I'm really worried about this. What happens here? So because we rely so much on that little island. Um, and we don't need it invaded, we just need it blockaded. Kind of so what we see in the Straits of Hormuz happening right now, twenty percent of the world's oil. OPEC can increase production, it'll take a few weeks to bring it offline, stabilize the markets. We don't have that luxury here.
2:10:06 Not when it comes to the very things that powers the next generation of warfare and Diplomacy and Economic development. I don't think the average person realizes how much the West Relies on
2:10:17 Ninety percent of our pro or at least ninety percent, as I understand it, that comes from F from that one island. Mm-hmm. Why don't they just move it over here? They're trying. They're trying. They're trying, right? It takes years. It takes years to get it cleared. It's very environmentally damaging. The infrastructure takes time, the expertise isn't here. All the IP that's on that island comes from the United States.
2:10:43 But the actual factories have been there and will be there. I guess there'll be a big labor cost impact as well. Absolutely. Regulations, all kinds of things we have to work our way around and figure out how and then you know s training the workers to be able to fabricate them, do it as efficiently. yield um, you know, results that are that are high enough. So that's sure. Concern. Huge concern. I I I mean our communications could shut down. Our cars could s I mean so many things can go wrong if
2:11:10 We lose the capacity to power the devices that we need. What advice would you guys give this is my last question, I promise. What advice would you give to the average person? You know,'cause we've talked theoretically about geopolitics and the average person sat at home can't do a lot about that. But if you were to give advice to the average person who's thinking about their family, about their future, about their work What would you say?
2:11:30 We are not helpless. It's not out of our control. But we do have to assert That could effectively
2:11:42 quasi effectively block the decisions that the president can make unilaterally. If If we Exercise our right to vote. We create
2:11:53 Either a blue senate or a blue house. Of representatives. Arguably we have demonstrate our ability to exercise our right to vote and taking back some semblance of control in our country. But unfortunately I think people don't
2:12:06 Like waiting. They don't like Taking I seven months before they can take an action. They wanna do something right now and and We live in a country in a democratic process where we get a chance to exercise our Power.
2:12:20 Every two years. So we have to actually show up and exercise that power. What are you doing for you and your family? We're leaving the United States. Why? Because
2:12:29 The United States is not going in the direction That I believe is the most conducive to the kind of citizen that I want to build in my children. I don't want my children to grow up in a country that is either afraid or angry. I don't want my children to grow up in a country that's constantly compromising its own democratic principles. I don't want to raise my kids in a country that puts capitalism before all other things.
2:12:52 I want my children to grow up as global citizens, to recognize that we're all interconnected, to value every human life. I wasn't given the privilege. I was the perfect candidate. To sit here. And tell you that American lives are more valuable than everybody else. That's not what I want to pass to my children. I want my children to look at lives around the world as valuable independent individual blessings. And I can try to teach them that, but that's not the message that they get. So where are you gonna go?
2:13:16 That's for me to know in Costa Rica. I remember this one. I remember this one else. Absolutely read as much as you can. Across the Broadest spectrum that you can find. And have conversations about what you think you know and what you want to know with as many people as you can across the broadest spectrum you can, and don't be afraid to have a little bit of friction like we had here today.
2:13:46 The way it works, and that's how the mind stays fluid and flexible, and you can always realize that you're wrong. Amen. I think that's increasingly important in an age of um misinformation, disinformation is to be able to have conversations like we had today where you have an opinion, but you're open minded to listen. And um something that I I think is increasingly important, but inc increasingly rare. Um, even as a podcaster, you're kind of forced to fit somewhere. you're pushed to be on the right or pushed to be on the left or pushed to believe this or pushed to believe that. And it takes especially in the modern world with algorithms hitting you every day, it takes some restraint and thoughtfulness to try and
2:14:24 Remain open. Um so I I love that message. And I hope for our audience that are listening, I hope that that's what they do as well. Like even if they don't like a guest we have on the show or they have a different of opinion, I hope you can at least bring yourself to listen and fight the the cognitive dissonance, which is very natural in human instincts to to hear them out and to allow those ideas to clash with your own to arrive at your own conclusions. Benjamin. I'm gonna echo a lot of what Annie said. Um stay curious. I think Podcasts like yours, and I think others do a great job of exposing people to different things they didn't think of. So continue to feed that curiosity. Um, and uh cognitive dissonance is uncomfortable, but it is a good thing'cause it forces us to think of opinions that we wouldn't otherwise and
2:15:04 I try to teach my students the power of um empathy, which basically means you don't have to like the other side, you can hate the other side, but just see the world as they see it for a moment before you do. So I think empathy's Okay. Where do we find more of your work, Benjamin? building out ways to be able to find more of it. But um on on socials on uh X and on Instagram I try to post as often as I can and uh give talks when I can. You haven't read the book yet?
2:15:31 Not yet. I'm I'm designing a simulation platform. That's sort of my work product, but it's not available to the masses yet. Nanny? Where books are sold. But you write fantastic books. Um any particular one you would like people to read? Start at the beginning. Okay.
2:15:49 I mean, the any anthology. I'll link them all below in the description so people can find them. Um And Andrew. You can find me at everyday spy dot com, the business that I own. You can find me everywhere at uh as my name Andrew Bustamante and Uh and yeah.
2:16:03 YouTube and you've written this great book, Shadow Cell. She's been a smash hit. The New York Times bestseller, wasn't it? Yes, sir. It was. Uh and this is I mean we talked about this in our last episode, but uh Took a long time to get this book declassified, I believe, and get permission from the CIA to release it, and it's a fascinating story of um uncovering a mole. Within
2:16:20 the CIA, which is fascinating. So thank you again all of you for getting together and demystifying a lot of this stuff for me. It's helped me to build my own perspective on what's going on in the world. And um I uh I hope we can have you all back again soon once we s figure out what actually happens. So thank you so much. I appreciate a lot. Thank you.
What you see above is a preview of the first minutes. One unlock costs 10 credits and covers this episode forever: full segment and word-level timestamps on this page, plus .txt, .srt, .vtt and word-level JSON downloads, as many times as you like.