#108 Thomas Zurbuchen: Adventures in Astrophysics

0:00 As a scientist, that the answer must be I don't know. And by the way. That's not a cop out. It's The answer to most questions that we ask in science.

0:11 I don't know or I don't yet know. So for me Uh you know, with that question, we actually are making a ton a ton of progress towards. I mean, frankly, during my professional lifetime, it's probably the question Where we've made most groundbreaking discoveries, you know, kind of fight.

0:27 When I started my Uh kind of master's degree in astrophysics, uh we had no planets elsewhere other than the ones in our solar system. In the meantime we have Thousands of those planets and some of them look awfully like

0:43 You know, like our own. uh kind of relative to the data we have, which are really, really, really sparse. So we're on that track. Towards uh, you know, I I believe or gonna find that. A sense that Yeah, you know, life just like planetary systems.

1:00 Live could also be Very much district at the universe. Welcome to the Knowledge Project. I'm your host, Shane Parrish. This podcast sharpens your mind by helping you master the best of what other people have already figured out. If you're listening to this, you're not currently a supporting member. If you'd like special member only episodes, access before anyone else, searchable transcripts, and other member only content, you can join at fs.blog/podcast.

1:42 Check out the show notes for a link. Today I'm speaking with Thomas Zerbuken, also known as Doctor Z. Dr. Z is the head of science at NASA, running a$7 billion a year science program covering multiple disciplines, including the world's top research program in Earth Science, planetary science, astrophysics, and heliophysics. This episode is incredible. We talk about things we've learned from running experiments on the International Space Station, our missions to Mars, and whether we'll ever colonize it.

2:11 How space is governed. And decision making. In fact, this episode is a masterclass in decision making from someone who routinely makes billion dollar decisions. It's time to listen. and learn.

2:29 Can you tell us in your own words how you get interested in astrophysics? You know, I grew up in the mountains in Switzerland and uh frankly quite isolated I grew up in a quasi Amish community with a father who was a religious leader and so I didn't have a lot in my life, you know, that other people have. Uh the only book I really read was the Bible and You know, so So what I did have though is an amazing environment.

2:53 In that little village where I grew up. I saw the sky kind of in a way that frankly I've rarely ever seen since my youth. And I was outside a lot at night. Uh on my back, frankly on the roof. and looking at the stars uh over time I bought a

3:09 a map, a star map, and I started looking at it. And so for me the stars were always Both. Um A goal, but also in an escape. Kind of for me it was just amazing. So I started, of course, asking questions just like we all do.

3:23 That was the start for astrophysics for me. Do you remember what some of those first questions were? The most important question really is about Is somebody else watching the other way? I mean for me it just Ah, what is there? Just a hole.

3:37 point right going growing up in that religious environment I thought a lot about bigger purpose and bigger things, like, you know, with the name The Lord, perhaps. The name uh creation for me. For me, uh

3:53 really looking at the stars, the patterns of them, the fact that they're there the next day also Is it how does it actually look, right? And and What can You know.

4:07 What's the relationship of that amazing sky? To us. Here, like to my little self on my back. on the roof in that little village, you know, what is that big thing. You start opening up books. Uh you know my

4:22 Godfather gave me the first book. It's still in my office, by the way, at uh at NASA. Uh really About the possibility of exploring those stars and you know, it just keeps on going and that question becomes more intense. Do you feel w what is your take on that? Do you think that there's somebody out there watching us?

4:41 It's kinda yeah, I first of all I belief it's very likely, right? I mean as a scientist that the answer must be I don't know. And and by the way. That's not a cop out. It's

4:52 The answer to most questions that we ask in science. I don't know or I don't yet know. So for me Uh, you know, that question we actually are making a ton a ton of progress towards. I mean, frankly, during my professional lifetime, it's probably the question

5:08 Where we've made most groundbreaking discoveries, you know, kind of fight. When I started my Uh kind of Master's degree. in astrophysics, uh we had no planets elsewhere other than the ones in our solar system.

5:22 In the meantime, we have Thousands of those planets and some of them look awfully like You know? Like our own. uh kind of relative to the data we have, which are really, really, really sparse. So we're on that track.

5:36 Towards uh, you know, I I believe or gonna find that. A sense that Yeah, you know, life just like planetary systems. Live could also be Very much district at N the Universe.

5:49 I have a million questions about space. I was so excited when you agreed to come on. So one of the first questions I wanted to ask is um My kids actually proposed this, which is what what's the most interesting things we've learned from running experiments on the international space station? It's a really good question. Uh I do believe, um, you know, and it depends a little bit who's asking, right? So for me Uh I'll give two answers depending on who's who's asking. I think the

6:18 The most important uh one uh is really kind of a series of of answers that relate to one question, and that is how is the a human body or even life itself, um kind of evolve or change uh without gravity. And there's important, very, very important uh work that has happened relative to our bone structure. uh relative to our uh visual system, but also now relative to our uh just genetic expression, right? We have uh with with the twin study, uh that uh one of the an identical train twin went on the space station for a long time. The other one stayed on the ground with that

6:55 uh twin study and the kind of generosity of those individuals to make the And a abundance of research that really talks about how gene expressions are changing in space. So for me

7:09 That is a super exciting part, you know, and uh question we can't really answer on the ground. Uh the other one, I just want to say the space station has been the site of much research and And uh and there's a lot of experiments hanging on the outside of the space station. And for me, probably the most exciting one relates to uh neutron stars, you know, they're these kind of high energy, high density kind of stars that uh that we're frankly right now measuring kind of the ingredients of and we're doing that uh from the outside.

7:41 Of the uh space station using a telescope, and of that that's taking advantage of that unique orbit and the enhanced data, right? So that would be the second. The second answer. How how do experiments work on the space station? Are they coordinated across countries or i is the data shared, does each country do their own experiments? For most of the uh data and especially let me just talk about NASA first for all of our experiments. Uh we have a policy of sharing all data.

8:09 And I love that. Because Frankly, so much of of the the the work we do, whether it's about astrophysics and especially about earth science. Uh we're all better off if we share all the data.

8:21 Because it's kind of a common good, right? That's tax the taxpayers are paying for it. Let's make it as useful as possible. And it's incredible what people figure out with those data. So what we have done in the in the space station work is is we have actually created partnerships in which uh multiple countries are are participating and they have their own channels up there and there's an integration board that kind of makes sure that you know, we're not doing twice the same thing that we partner when we can, but uh you encourage and empower Both uh you know

8:53 government agencies, but also companies to put work on the space station and then uh coordinate that. Now in what we have done, especially for companies, we have uh kind of adopted IP laws in a way that does not undercut the ability of actually commercialising some of the Results that are there. That's deliberately. But for us.

9:15 for the science uh work. It it basically is uh public data. We're you know, we're we're trying to enhance kind of if you know, rice all boat all boats, right? Kind of in science. That that's a principle we really, really deeply believe in and I think it's exactly the right principle. It wasn't Mana long before I came to now, so it's uh something that we went through in the last twenty years and it made us all much better. Are there specific examples of things we've learned about the immune system or sleep from space that we can apply on Earth? There are uh lessons about uh sleep about the immune system and I'm I'm not sure whether any of them can officing the knock it form in which I could just basically say, Well, uh this is, you know

9:57 This is what uh What we know we know, for example, the various levels of sleep, right? Uh The uh astronauts just like here, or I being observed constantly. They're wired, you know, the way it's in the

10:10 movies. It is the way it happens, right? Kind of our Uh, we make sure that the astronauts are healthy and and we are you know, like how we they're sleeping, you know, kind of the depth of sleep, you know. I mean I talked to a number of the astronauts very easy to to just recognize, hey, this is a really different Oh.

10:28 Life and it's hard. It's you know, I mean, if you want example, you close your eyes, you see flashes. going through your eyes. Why? Because cause me craze, you know, they come from the deep galaxy, uh from ex exploding stars. They're out there. Most of them never come to the ground because between You know, if you take a square centimeter and go all the way through space There's a kilogram of air.

10:50 per square centimeter that shields us, right? So so we're very radiation shielded. Well, if you're in the space station, That is not the case, right? Because you're on top of the air. So basically what now happens is that radiation goes through your body and and you know if you close your eyes You see these flashes that are are going through uh your eyes. And you know, many of the astronauts, uh some of my friends have told me it's like How can off?

11:14 Tough it is to try to ignore that when you want to fall. asleep first, right? You know these kind of flashes that occur in your eye. Just one tiny example. Oh, that's so cool. Um, can we talk about the Earth's magnetic field and how it shields us from debris? Am I getting that right? The earth magnetic field, you know, it's it's by the way, it's it's it's one of those things if you really ask in detail, we d still don't fully understand.

11:40 uh why it occurs and kind of the more we know about it, the more it kind of makes us learn. For example, Mercury has a magnetic field, the Earth has a magnetic field, Jupiter has a magnetic field. Mars does not have a global. uh scale magnetic field, and neither does Venus. Uh and so so we basically we we learn from that. Okay, so what does the earth magnetic field do? So what it what it does, it stands there, you know, like a dipole from north to south. And what it does is the very particles I just talked about, but especially lower energy particles. The ones that come from the sun, they come into the magnetic field and

12:13 And they hit the magnetic field, and whenever they hit the magnetic field, think at the equator, right? When the magnetic fields look like at the eye ball, it's kind of right over the magnetic field. It turns the particles around. So it it If you want it shields, the magnetic field shields The Uh the inside of the Earth, including all the way down here, but also in the space station, shields us from

12:36 Energetic particles. You know, which are Dust pieces and kind of uh you know, some of them human made kind of spacecraft that blew up or or, you know, that are no longer used or or, you know, upper stages that were used, of course, to propel spacecraft up there. They're way heavier, so the magnetic field doesn't really have a huge impact on them.

12:58 And that's also how we get the northern lights, right? So it's the reflection off of that debris that sort of refl refracts the light differently, or so so So think of that particle I just described at the equator. So at the particle at the equator it goes away because remember the magnetic field force is always perpendicular to the magnetic field itself. Now let's go at the polar region. At the polar region, the magnetic fields are coming in, right? If just look at you know Google magnetic field of a type, you see that. the magnetic fields are coming in. So up there, the particles are like a funnel. They're coming down. They're not deflected. They're like funnel coming in. and they come in and they hit the atmospheric, uh

13:41 uh oxygen and whatever is there and it'll it makes them light, like a neon light or whatever, you know, uh A light that you have in which kind of high energy particles are exciting them and they radiate. That's so the The northern lines are are energetic particles, both from the sun, but also from the back of the earth mag magnetic field. kind of funneled into the top, into the polar regions. And igniting if you want, uh the spectacle of light. You mentioned sort of like uh satellites and

14:11 uh a new spacecraft, I guess. What happens to them after they're done? I mean, do they just float around? Do they get sent on course to the sun? As we put more and more satellites into the air, does it become a problem for launching rockets or So if I was organizing the kind of whole space flight according to its challenges. This would be a top five challenge that you're mentioning. It may be even a top two or three challenge.

14:37 So so basically the issue is uh these particles, especially in low earth orbit, right? Most spacecraft that we have are in low earth orbit. The second most site is in geostationary orbit. That's where you're You know spacecraft are that to both weather observations, but also uh, you know, the the T V satellites, you know the antenna on the roof points towards geoostationary orbit. That's why it can point one place. It doesn't have to move. I'd lower thorb but

15:04 Uh, you know, uh there's a lot of uh spacecraft, thousands of spacecraft that are operating and uh and tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of Debris. Now so what happens It's depending on where you are. in hide.

15:19 That debris stays there for decades. And so basically what actually is one of the biggest challenges we have is as we launch into that space. uh because of our history but also because of new things uh that debris is frankly becoming a real challenge. Now just imagine The speed by which these spacecraft move are kilometers per second.

15:43 That's also the speed by which the debris moves. So what we have is we have an observation programme both by the Department of Defence but also other uh places international places with telescopes and we try to catalog all the debris. So on a on an average month. We have

16:00 Want? s sometimes multiple almost hit. So sometimes we have to fly a spacecraft away, you know, I have tens of spacecraft that are there operating. We have to move it away to make sure the debris Can pass. Those are fine. The ones that really worry me are the ones that we don't see.

16:18 Like if you If you took a a sugar cube. Worth off. Metal. And you shot it.

16:26 Uh you know, at I thought Ten kilometers per second. You shot it against the spacecraft, if it hits it. at the right place. That spacecraft is over.

16:36 Right. So so we If it's tiny, you know, I make take a solar cell out if it's you know You see the size really matters. So so we have a problem as an international community that especially lowerbit is clocked with debris.

16:51 And it's really one of those things. I think in the next ten years we have to solve it. We have to, in fact. Clean that garbage. And also what's important, you know that Rule number one in digging holes is stop digging. Right. So so kind of so we have to make sure that everything we launch, uh we either

17:07 fly out. Or we create such a short timeline. that within years it's gone, right? So it's out of the space, you know, the upper atmosphere kind of has that drag force. And it falls onto the earth like a meteor, an artificial meteor, and it disappears. So that's that's really critical problem.

17:25 You you mentioned that was one of the top maybe five challenges. What would be other contenders for the top challenges? Well, I do believe that uh that one of the things we really want to be careful about is to keep Space peaceful. And I think that's that's something we've been uh watch with repetition. Uh we've uh signed uh treaties both in the US and otherwise, you know, uh and uh we see and it has been discussed, uh we see some countries, nation states that are out there That are

17:56 you know, really putting in question whether they're serious about uh the peaceful utilization of space and and it is It is really worrisome because of course Uh you know it it is, you know, they can use space like uh other countries use. They can put telescopes there, observe whoever they want to, their own people or other people, right? They can they can do that. But they can uh

18:18 by law, right? But they cannot, for example, weaponize space. So so so for me If you ask me, kind of my kind of in low earth orbit, what is my biggest worry right now. It is that that we take the common good of space that we've you know, over decades we've used that way, you know, in a non interference basis, uh uh, you know, with international community.

18:40 that we take that and move it into a place where this becomes a domain. of war almost, or a domain of potential war and that you know, I mean and and frankly we're moving. at a larger speed than we would like in that direction, unfortunately. And it's not Uh you know Uh because we want that.

18:59 uh but uh you know, of course we observe what what what is happening. Do you think that's inevitable that it becomes another Frontier for Say war for Example.

19:10 God, I hope not. Right? I mean that we've we've seen in in history, we've seen cycles in which we, you know, armed ourselves to the teeth and we said, this is insane, uh, let's let's step back, you know, let's get rid of all these snooks, you know, and and we have done that with People at times, you know, we were in a cold war with, you know, and so for me

19:31 And my hope is we get to a place in which we Can off. really say, look, we're gonna create lines and we're gonna accept those lines. You know, the fact that people say, Oh, we're gonna do this and that you know, that's one thing. It's the important thing is that we You know, if you look at the cold war, we went and checked each other. Right, and made sure that we followed

19:51 the rules, right. So so so for me Uh I think You know there's a fork in the road and the next uh uh decade or so and in in in which we do that. Needless to say, the United States put the space force together in part because of that. challenge is that space deserves a lot of attention.

20:10 And then and we can still use space as a domain from which to uh support kind of uh the US or our allies and so forth without you know, crossing that line. But uh my worry

20:23 Really is that uh That discussion it is one of the discussions in the next decade that's really serious. Well, I mean I think the the big uh a challenge now in this case it I don't know whether it's a challenge or an opportunity. I mean I think we're at the verge of really opening space for for commoners, right? Kind of for

20:46 My family, your family, right? Can of to do a trip to space. Uh and can of utilize it both, uh as a commercial entity by imaging uh the earth, for example, and selling those images, those data, that information, or also as a tourist uh destination and so forth. And so for me, uh we if we can do that, right, it creates a very different uh

21:08 dynamic in this whole thing. Right. And so for me You know, that's also decided, I would argue, in the next ten years. Right. It's gotta I mean, frankly, it's incredible what has happened in the last twenty. Uh, you know, the question is, where are we in the next twenty?

21:23 You know, and so for me for me it just uh I mean that That's another big question. And you know If we're if that is failing, right? The domain of the

21:36 of governments, right? Get off the question we just had about one of my worries, right? It's a totally different discussion than when others are there. also, right, in which we basically say, Hey, look, this is uh you know, just like we do a trip to Paris. Let's do our anniversary trip to space. Right. I mean, I I and and you say, Well, that's crazy. No, it is not. That is precisely what five companies are working on right now. And for all I see it, they're successful.

22:01 I mean it's looking really promising. It it's moving into the dom domain of entrepreneurship. So in other words, it's no longer a technology. The question is does the business model close? So so so that's what that one is. H how is space governed? Like can can I just start a company and like shoot stuff into space? So I each uh

22:21 Uh you know, the space uh is you know the The uh United Nations Office for Outer Space kind of as you know, with its signatories of the kind of uh Of the relevant uh you know, acts that uh came uh internationally, you know, for example. It says we will use space as a common good. We will not weaponize it. We will we will be non on uh act on a non interference basis. So those things are uh kind of the international

22:48 the international framework than the national framework. Uh each country uh is now responsible. for access to space. So for example, if we wanted to launch, uh and you know, you're in Canada You would work with your uh you know, your country. Uh on how

23:05 In fact, uh You know, the access uh uh to space. Uh do are you, for example, compliant? with the orbital debris guidelines. Right, are you uh combined uh with the frequency interfere and stuff, you know that Where how are you gonna communicate? Those checks are done by your

23:23 a nation state and then you can launch based on that. So so it's really there's both national and international community that works together. on those things. Uh we know, of course, whenever there's a launch somewhere. So it's not like you can't hide. If there's a launch, we know it's almost, you know, I mean everybody knows where there's a launch. That's why we actually tell everybody there is a launch. There may be You know, we're lo we may be launching or

23:46 I'll just call it the Russians may be launching a top secret asset that they're saying we're launching. They're just not talking about the payload, but they're just telling you that they're launching and they'll give you the trajectory and everything, I would imagine. Exactly right. So that's how it's ra it's it's uh regulated, yeah. How how does how does that work in the future in the sense of we'll see more and more private corporations innovating in space? And I want to come to SpaceX later specifically Um but h how does that regulatory body

24:14 work. I mean ultimately you'll be able to There'll be countries with less regulation and more regulation, and you could locate your business in any of those countries. I do believe, you know, back to my top five. This is one of those also. You know, as always. The speed of innovation is the relevant speed on this one. Right, and of uh and and the speed of regulation, like so many places, it's just not

24:39 matching the speed of innovation, right? And so so it's because of that that I worry. Right. It it is because of that that that you know, you believe. I mean it it needs to it needs to be it can't be a leaky bucket, right? Can't be that kind of uh certain countries just Plut.

24:59 to space by whatever means, right? Whether it's uh the frequency, the communication piece, or whether it's the orbital debris piece, or whether it's uh how they're setting their orbits, they need to be part of a common uh kind of uh community that actually in enforces those standards and and and holds them. And I think uh that kind of commercial by the way, the the commercialization of this is the a great story. So for me, especially from the US perspective. That is the goal, right? Our goal is not that in fifty years the government does the same stuff that we did fifty ago. That's crazy, especially when it's a research entity like NASA. We want to kind of attack the next frontier. We want to we want to go beyond what's possible today, kind of increase the box of what's possible.

25:45 You know, uh You know, and then uh let the commercial entities uh deal with that. So for me That's it's a what I call a good problem, but it's a problem nonetheless. So with something like Starlink, did they just need US approval or do they need to go around the entire world and get everybody's approval to launch those into space? Like how does that work?

26:06 It was a US approval. So the Uh the the the relevant US entities, uh, but with focused on launch on the frequency, uh, you know, all this stuff. Uh was approved uh in a in the in the process that is agreed upon in the United States. So they They went up there. Of course what happened, you know, is uh you know, the element of surprise is always there when you when you're working with innovation.

26:29 Uh you know, so they were a lot more bright. And you know, everybody looked at their I I mentioned myself and Switzerland on top of that. up on top of that roof. I would see Starlink, right? I mean it's like that you can't miss that and and that that raises questions that are beyond

26:45 The regulatory, right? It's kind of is to write to a dark sky, right? So it's questions like that, especially as a uh as an astrophysicist, like how does that affect the future observation. I just want to tell you uh SpaceX and the Starlink team have been nothing but collaborative. They went and face the astrophysics community that are actively

27:05 Darkening there. uh bodies, right? And if they're spacecraft, uh frankly it w was people didn't wanna do this, right? That's not that oh like I don't care, right? They it it's i it's really hard to do some of these calculations the right way. And and frankly You sometimes you don't know what the question is you're supposed to ask, right? I mean, who would have guessed that that's gonna be the big discussion in Starlink? Right. Of course, having internet everywhere is a great equalizer. I mean, I I I worked on this when I was a university professor with my I mean, I work with Google on this problem.

27:38 Right, and and and the due diligence of company I can offer investments with them. And and so for me, that's a good thing. And SpaceX is really pushing the envelope. But uh yes, this is an important part. Well let's come to SpaceX a little bit later. I I wanna one of the coolest things I think you're working on is a Mars sample return, which would be humanity's first round trip ever to another planet. Um can you tell us a little bit about that?

28:03 Yeah, I'm so excited about it. So first of all in uh this summer we did launch a mission called uh Mars twenty twenty perseverance and it's basically a sampler. That was in July, right? It was in July. Yes, in July, uh the thirtieth of July. I remember it exactly how we took off and it was

28:21 Incredible. It it was a name by uh A school boy, um is up you know, called Perseverance and it's like the best name ever, especially for the time We're in today. And it's on a way to Mars. It's beyond uh halfway to Mars and it's gonna land in February uh twenty one.

28:38 It's gonna land on Mars and then it will has one task. And it really has to prioritize on. uh and that is to collect samples, identify and collect samples. So we're gonna land into uh a creator, a former um uh crater uh that that you know almost a lake used to be a lake we know from uh remote observation. So we're gonna collect uh samples kind of in places where on earth

29:02 We would go find fossils, right? So that's where you would go. And so basically uh that That um uh we're gonna collect those samples in twenty six, uh or twenty seven. Uh our next two spacecraft will take off. One in twenty six, one in twenty seven, we think, today.

29:20 Uh the first one will go up there. And it uh it will its job is to fly to Mars and using I you know a propulsion method, I'm propulsion, electric propulsion, moving into Mars And waiting.

29:33 So it's kind of the carrier ship. So it's there with camera and calm, then the other one comes. And it it puts a rocket down on the surface of Mars. It's it's the f it's it's a a total functional rocket. It lands a rocket. And uh

29:49 The rover that we have will go and drop off uh drop off samples by the way just because we don't know whether that row was will work, we have a sample fetch row where that actually stunned by Canada and it may actually turn out to be The most important uh part of that entire piece kind of to go pick up kind of the passets of the sample. kind of flasks that we have.

30:10 Super clean things. Then put him on the spacecraft and at that launch vehicle. Go up. And then drop kind of an an orbiting sample, uh satellite, put it there. Remember the thing that's in orbit and waiting. It's gonna put it up. You know that Austin Powers movie? It's that, right? Kind of just to scoop up that kind of Easter egg, right? That's up there kind of with the with the sample in it, then come back to Earth and drop it onto the earth.

30:36 So that will be the first round trip. It's international and science driven. Just like we should do those kind of big leaps. Do you think we'll ever live on Mars? I believe so. Uh I don't think it's me, uh or

30:51 I may be at the generation of my children. Uh but uh but it's not my generation. I think uh Uh, we will go to uh Mars with humans in my lifetime. For sure. I think we colonize it. I think over or over the timescale of uh multiple generations, I think it's very much uh possible.

31:09 that we could stay there for a long time. It's not clear. How, right? We don't know enough. And and it it has everything to do with the resources that are there. And so for me, the question is, is the way we're gonna live there like we live in the Antarctic research station, right? There are people living there. But it's kind of a tough life, right? It's in the middle of ice, you know, airplanes come and drop'em off. They stay there for the summer. Oh you know, and then that means the southern summer and then they take off.

31:36 uh you know, and there's kind of the only people who are there are just, you know, that go through winner are very healthy individuals who You know, just keep the thing afloat. So it doesn't you know, it's still ready for the next summer. So that's one version of living, right? Uh that And then the other version of lifething is like I like we have here on earth, right? Go to an island and build houses and live there with our families. And on the whole spectrum.

32:01 Right. I don't know where we're gonna end up. You know, if I had the hypothesis right now, and I know many people I mean kind of depending on who you are, some people think there are thousands of people who will live on Mars. It's like that may very well be. So that's more on the island side of things, you know, and you know, instead of Hawaii, uh an island in Hawaii, you know. Go to Mars, find resources, do that, perhaps even terraform Mars. That's what people talk about. Make it a different planet, so we can live there.

32:28 On a good way of counting, it's just number of of miracles you need, right? This is a ten twenty miracle type of scenario. The other one, get off the Antarctic research station, it's maybe only a five miracle. Thing. So So it kind of The path to that certainly goes through the Antarctic research station, right? It just I mean, first we need to do that. That's what I'm focused on.

32:50 And you know, I understand uh Elon, uh Musk and many others that are talking about that other world. Uh I don't think uh So if I I mean I again I don't know. Never underestimate the power of innovation. That is gotta that's really important, right? Uh but what I wanna do is just break down these kind of take the first few miracles down. Right, that because it's good for all of humanity just take'em down, but put'em in the bucket of from the miracle bucket into the bucket of that's possible now. So that's what I'm gonna do.

33:19 I'm I'm curious as to like what we'll find on Mars. Will we find materials that are I I mean, obviously exceedingly rare, but maybe they're useful. In which case does Mars become Almost a mining colony and then we have another race to see who can get there first and who can extract these 'Cause we're eventually gonna run out of these rare earth materials and if we find substitutes on other planets How how do you see that playing out, or am I just like way too far in sci fi land right now?

33:48 No, I think this is uh our lifetime kind of issue. the mining color. Now if you I think what what you said about Mars is a highly appropriate kind of uh resources relate to living there, living off the land. But it also is creating business models that kind of make it viable. It's feasible and viability, right? Both both matter. I I wanna talk to you about another celestial body just to amplify your point. It's called psyche.

34:13 It's uh you know, like psyche, like the psyche in me, you know, P S Y. C H E. So it's an asteroid. We think it's a failed I've failed planet. So it's a planet that has a core. That it you know, a metal core. I'm gonna

34:29 enormously precious if it's true, right? We know the size, we know its orbit. We're building a mission uh we're gonna launch in twenty two to go to go there and go uh uh go orbit it and and learn about it. But assume this is really a fail core. That body. has more value than any other body we currently know because frankly we cannot get that from the earth get if that Digging a hole into the earth to where we need to go is actually harder than just going out there and collecting that.

35:01 And so for me. I think the kind of mining world, uh the the mining approach to the world is uh in in space is inevitable. I mean it's something that will matter. Uh, for both purposes again. to survive but also to uh

35:16 to you know, to to build new new commercial entities and that's why it's so important regulated up front in a way that actually protects those environments. I mean, for me, I I mean, I think Mars is beautiful in its own right. Look at these images. It's incredible. We don't want to destroy it, right? Then we we know how to we've learned a lot on Earth.

35:38 How to do that right, then we should include those lessons there. And and not kind of Cat and too. Down the road so far that we say, Oops, you know, we're back to where we were or on earth in which we have an environment. So it so again, the regulation and innovation speeds need to adjust, right?

35:54 Most people live in cities so they don't get to look up and sort of see all these thousands of stars. I remember the first time I ever went to Columbia And I was in the middle of a rainforest and I looked up and there was like thousands and thousands of stars and it was just the most incredible experience. And then you see You know, the Hubble and you see these low uh low orbiting satellites and it it was kind of It was really interesting and startling to see the sky uh with such clarity.

36:21 When when we you think of an asteroid and landing on the asteroid and like extracting Um materials, do you think of that as we're landing on it and we're going to extract it and bring it back? Or do you think of it as we're gonna redirect the asteroid back to Earth and bring the whole thing back somehow. It depends on the size of the asteroid, right? Kind of the energy that it takes to redirect us.

36:44 Depending on the size and the orbit it has, is is almost infinity, right, Kova, relative to what we have. If you looked at Psyche, it would be the former model, like landing and extracting and bringing back. And of course that that puts into the value chain everything from launch to extraction to You know, uh uh to you know the whole risk you have to

37:04 uh offset uh from the uncertain and all the way down to You know, it's not the investors wanting to make money from it. So it's a it's a really tough business model. You could do an experiment right now and basically say Spouse. I took one of those spec rockets, you know, take uh

37:20 you know, the the biggest rocket we have and suppose by whatever miracle I go. To that. asteroid and I fill I mean I can go there. I pay for the rocket and forget the physics. I just go there and I fill the whole thing full of gold, and I bring it back. and I land, do I make or lose money?

37:39 You know, and then the the answer is we're starting to make money because launch is so much. cheaper now than it was. Uh you know, that's just in part because of that commercial force. But it's not by enough yet, right? So kind of the So kind of you you wanna You wanna make sure that you upside or l rare earth battles, by the way, are actually m worth more, as you know, as gold.

37:59 I can offen and In many of these uh you know, applications to r really depend on them. And uh And so we wanna uh do that.

38:09 Uh right. So so it's a it We need to learn more, right? It's kind of we're just scratching that surface, but uh That's where we're going, I think. You manage one of the largest budgets in the world, let alone science budgets. I think you're seven, eight billion dollars a year. I mean, that tops most S P five hundred companies, most Dow companies, your You're allocating more money into science than probably anybody in the world. I'm curious as to w what's the hardest part of that job and why?

38:37 I think the hardest part of research. Is always to find that edge, right? So kind of you know kind of if you really look at the best research. You know, I think of it like I'm a mountain guy, think of it as like Walking in the mountains on that ridge.

38:53 On the one side Is the irrelevant. We've already proven it. It's easy to do research there. It's it's safe. Uh you know, you get tenure and every professor, you know, is fine doing it kind of. twiddling around and you can make a lot of money there. The other side is the impossible.

39:11 Right, kind of they're I mean kind of Research questions don't only need Frankly, uh the right question, but the right time for that question. And and and the hardest part is is to build programs that are programs that have

39:28 That Push that edge. at the maximum speed viable. That requires that you Learn how to fail.

39:38 you're gonna every once in a while drop down this way and drop down that way into you know and what what you really have to do. Uh, especially the ones that fail because they went too early. You want to protect them. You want to protect your innovators, right? Kroff, because because that's important. So for me, uh the hardest part is really to set the program. uh at at the right speed of innovation.

40:01 uh kind of a and allow uh for experimentation for iteration. I suppose to kind of being that colossal kind of that kind of slow organization that just wants to make everything safe. Which of course

40:15 We want to be safe, right? Kind of that has to live in our brain too, because when we make an investment of a three billion dollars. Uh like that uh March twenty twenty perseverance over right. If we make that investment, we wanna do what we can, right? Uh but you know, to do that. So that's the hardest part, I would argue. Ingrid und Indie präsentieren Jobs, bei denen man sich keinen Fehler erlauben darf. Heute Heizungsmontöin. Die Heizung macht seit heute Morgen komische Geräusche. Entschuldigen Sie, das ist ein geiler Beat. Die Rohr platzen gleich! Und jetzt der Job. Das ist ein Job für Sponsored Jobs.

40:51 Mit richtigen Profis wäre das nicht passiert. Vertrau in Lead, versuch Indeed und finde qualifizierte Talente mit Sponsored Jobs. Mach's dir Indeed einfach. Jetzt auf indeed.de slash recruiting. I I'm curious internally as to how you balance that and how you think about okay, well, we're investing three billion. And we need to eventually ship this, but on the same token, the the money at stake in

41:16 Yeah. in a public way too. It's not even a private company losing three billion. It's the public that would you know, be losing three b how how do you think about those decisions and how do you make them? So first of all, uh you recognize that the launches are irreversible.

41:32 Like and off the moment I say go, it's done. You don't get it back. It is over. Right. So it's irreversible. So so basically

41:42 When you ever you make a decision like that, and many people do that in the business world too, right? Kind of these kind of one way doors, I think, uh As otters call it I don't feel You only go through it once. The way you do it, I believe, is is you recognize do you want to make the decision well informed?

42:00 And with all the scrutiny up front. So so The way I make that decision is first of all, I don't make it alone. I put in the room. The people

42:12 The best people that I know. kind of from the engineers, but also the policy people. And you know, and I actually have people who are don't report to each other. Like I have an engineering organization, just the way we build NASA, or we're decades that we have an engineer organization that talks about just engineering without any other encumbrances, right? Th the question's just this Will it work? What's the likelihood for it to work?

42:38 There's one that talks about safety just that way. Is it gonna be safe, right? And of no other No other if then s that's their focus. And so you basically the way you make the decision is you you bring together that kind of of course you work. You recognize by the way the most important thing is to empower the team, right? Kind of I mean, frankly, I'm not the most important

43:00 Guy and just I'm just making the decision to live with it. You know, and I'm the guy. in the congressional hearing. Right, if something goes wrong. So everybody knows that, right? So I will make the decision. And it's one it's not a vote. It's one decision by one signature. The only signature that matters there for most of these missions is mine.

43:18 Right, kind of because I take the accountability. Right. But I would be a fool. to Nautilus and to the otters. So for me you

43:27 you really get to know w with big decisions. I actually spend a lot of time Meeting the teams. I want to Yeah, I've built space hardware. I can sense how good it you know, I listen to the team. I listen to the things that are not sad. I listen to

43:42 I I basically figure out whether they're scrutinizing each other. Whether we have a lead that squash us. uh opposition. You know, those are all warning signs. You want to see whether I look at mistakes people are making. Are they by the way, I don't care if they make a mistake. But are they making stupid mistakes and over and over again? Are they are they disciplined, right? So So all that stuff.

44:05 I don't know if it's it's years of work. that come together to that decision where I said, yes, we launch. Where are you when you make that decision? Are you in a room with other people? Are you alone? Are you walking? Are you running? What are you doing when you actually Make that call. In many cases I'm in a room with other people.

44:23 But if I'm not sure I will take a break. Uh and I I think well when I run. I think well in a shower in the morning. So I mean that there are kind of points of clarity. If I'm not sure I will never push into a decision. I mean I The way I always go is I go backwards, right?

44:40 Suppose I'm sitting in the congressional hearing. And I just blew up X and Y. Can I explain how I made the decision in a way that it made sense there? Space is hard, and by the way, every once in a while we will fail. And I remind everybody of that. If if you want to not fail, you're in that safe space over here, that's irrelevant.

44:59 That's not how NASA got to where it is. It's not because people split it safe. It's because we do take risks. We do leave the launch pad, even though we know it's dangerous. You know, with one point five to three percent likelihood it will not make it.

45:13 out of out of the earth's gravity. Statistically speaking. So so we take that risk, right? So just that itself. I will never One of the things I really believe in is don't don't get pushed.

45:25 I I If I'm not sure, I don't mind being the only guy who's not comfortable. You know, and and I will I will back off. I basically said uh Thanks for stopping the meeting.

45:36 I appreciate that. If anybody has anything that is not being said, uh I will not make a decision for twenty four hours. Send it to me by email. And I will go back and if I if I find that there's more information I can gain. that really is relevant, I'll do that if I find you know, like you get into a place where More information actually doesn't help you because it adds ambiguity to the team.

45:59 I make uh the decision right on the spot because frankly I'm I'm ready for it because I I did the work. So it's not because I came in unprepared. I did the work for years in advance. I know kind of have all these data points and I've discussed them with my with my group of uh look at them from different perspectives.

46:20 Is there examples where you you've made that call and it's turned out to be wrong but you got a good outcome? Yeah. Uh so so I wanna I wanna I I I'll talk about two of those sessions. Uh the first one is Uh I was the one of the first decisions I made is a billion dollar assets. It's the June on mission. I was in orbit uh or is in orbit around Jupiter. And so we were in an orbit of a fifty day orbit and we wanted to drop the

46:45 Fire the engine and drop it down. to have fifteen uh day orbit, what that does. Um And I may have to date slightly wrong, but you get the point. I wanted to to get uh I have a over a hundred missions, so sometimes I mix up dates. I did not wanna think we're gonna talk about those, but but anyway, I wanted to kind of Increase the frequency of encounters by a factor of three. That that's what I wanted to do.

47:09 The question was Do we want to do that? So with the entire team. Uh look at them uh from their point of view. There. uh frankly perfectly fine in a slow orbit.

47:20 They say we need twenty fly bys. It costs a taxpayer fifty more million dollars. uh to to stay where you are the principal investigator, everybody's like, I just leave it where we are. There's risk. We want the minimum risk. And I'm like, Well, what's the opportunity cost? You're spending fifty more million dollars to do the science. And so what I had to do is is unentangle that kind of natural inclination, which I understand because I was in his role before.

47:46 from the actual technical question. Is it is it Uh is it important. So In that room, there were very few people wanted to fire the engine. But I Took the decision to fire the engine.

47:59 And then we prepared for it. And as we prepared for it. All of a sudden we realized that the engine had a problem. It had a leak. It it was something was Wrong with it. And uh

48:12 And frankly What we needed to do is can basically look at the you know, as we prepared for this exact what what I believe is the exact right decision. uh we actually realised that uh that we couldn't do because now we would have to fire the engine. So I made a second decision. We would have to fire the engine in a state that it had never been tested.

48:33 Now a half a billion dollar asset that's basically working. And I need to take a risk. Is it worth that risk? So so actually the second decision had to reverse. uh that the first decision to fire. I actually decided not to fire. Because of the Because of that kind of enhanced and unknown risk. Uh, we thought that the ancient people said we could probably do that. We just have never done it.

48:58 And there has never been a burn that long in that configuration in any test environment. Okay, that's crazy, right? You don't I mean, of course I'm boiling it down to the the quintessential thirty seconds of the meeting, right? Once you learn, I just like you don't fire. So ultimately, we ended up not firing Because we did the scrutiny in the first and the second decision, we set ourselves up in a way that actually made the science Way better because we actually

49:24 We actually had I had asked him to Spring. You know, yes, there's opportunity costs, but tell me what you can do extra science that you weren't able to do. So we actually moved it up. So so by failing in my first decision, we enhanced the mission significantly. I appreciate you uh sharing the details of that. You said there was two decisions a that you recalled. What was the other one? So the first one was let's fire even though everybody opposed it. The second up uh was uh

49:52 Let's not fire because you know, even though some of the technical people said we could do it, but we put enough scrutiny together that basically uh Basically again, I was wrong on the first session. I you know, kinda if you could say, Well You know, I'm sure somebody says like well, you could have just not fired and we're exactly where we are. It's like no, that's exactly the right scrutiny because in a congressional hearing, I could actually now explain to you How I cautious I cautiously spent that extra fifty million dollars. It's not because I just I'm not handling that that pressure.

50:24 Well we actually learn something that really matters. Learning is an important part of innovation. How do you disseminate what you learn within the organization? Like how do you share that knowledge? That's actually really a good question and I struggle with it.

50:37 And uh basically what happens to me on a given day I make multiple decisions, right? And and and for me what I've started to do is sit down and talk people through the decision. Kind of it's almost like see what I'm seeing. This is what you know, and really create that rigor in the organization and kind of show where how the decision pass goes, right? I I

51:03 asking questions out loud and talking through it. And and so that's what I'm sharing in the leadership team. I worry sometimes just because NASA is so Hierarchical, right? matters, you know, kind of my schedule is always subscribed by a factor of ten every every week, right? So so I say no a lot more than yes relative to my time. That's my most impression, most important good, right? So so for me the question I'm asking, I'm I'm spending enough time to actually disseminate things into the organizations because I'm s you know, it will be helpful for them to actually know this is the scrutiny we're putting on it. I try to do it and I ask people to do it, but I just wanna tell you it's a question on my mind that I'm currently

51:47 thinking about. You know, I just A notch. And that reason I'm saying it, it's like I see some of the same mistakes over and over again. It's like no, no. I don't want like for me what I really hate, if you really want to tick me off.

52:02 Come show up and tell me everything is low risk. That makes me believe you haven't understood your job. Right? Don't make me laugh. Don't make me feel good. Make me feel scared and then make me feel comfortable because you're dealing with all the risks.

52:18 Don't come and say it's all raw risk. It is not low risk, it's rocket science. And so for me it's like you know, and at the beginning everybody came with this because you know you know, these organizations have their histories, their leaders, you know, like some leaders don't sleep well if they have problems. You know, so they have pain aversion. It's a big leadership weakness. You know

52:39 Did they not be able to carry worries with them? You know, and those worries. pulling them down. So you know that the whole organization behaves in a way that they never bring a worry to you. You still have'em.

52:52 But you don't know'em, right? So you get surprised. You know, and and I'm like, No, no, no, I won't Y I need you to be worried more than me. then I'm feeling comfortable. I don't want you to be calm. I need you to be worried.

53:06 That's what I want. W what it sounds like you're really looking for, if if I'm paraphrasing correctly here, is you're wanting to know that they've thought about it in the a level of detail that's appropriate. and accounted for those and if if they're coming to you and saying uh, you know, I don't really have any concerns, then it begs to it sort of makes you question whether they've thought about it enough and deeply. And that's a red flag for you that you need to like dive in and evaluate.

53:35 Exactly right. So I I I I look at those red flags and I look really I listen really carefully to what's not being talked about. Oh too. I listen really carefully. So so I go into a a meeting, I actually have a chart. I'm not sharing with people. uh generally speaking, but on that charter's technical, schedule, cost, team thing. You know, like

53:58 Key topics. And I listen carefully. Are you talking about Technical. What are your things that you're dealing with? We've just talked about that. Are you worrying about it? Are you moving them forward? And you know, what are you what are your top worries? I want to know what they are.

54:15 Then I wanna know about your team. I want to know where do you talk about your team. How is your team doing? Under pressure, as they are. Are they making mistakes? Are there almost mistakes you caught? Like, you know, like how are you making sure Your team is cohesive, motivated, excited, you know.

54:34 the the the relevant unit of innovation is a team. It's not an it an individual, right? So for me, I wanna hear you talk about team. I wanna hear you talk about cost. You've thought about it, you've linked those things together. I want to hear you talk about schedule so often for planetary mission. Schedule is the most important variable. Because the planets need to be in the right place in the sky. So I can't take longer. I I can only either go this year or two years from now.

55:00 To Mars, for example. Right. Uh you know, so so because just Mars doesn't line up with the Earth the right way, so I can go there. So for me, I listen carefully. for the white spaces on my chart or in my mental image of the entire collection of the mission. What are you not talking about? And that's where I'm going to go. Right. So I sit there. I prepare. I look at every chart back, every information I had. Frankly, I block my schedule to do that in a very aggressive fashion. I take

55:30 I take a lot of preparation time and I come in. And now I listen really carefully and I take off the jar. Are you talking about this? Are you really comprehensively doing that? And I may take one of those things and I drive like five questions into depth. And you know, I wanna see whether you can go, go, go, go, go until you're Finally.

55:51 You know? I mean I there's some people I've never missed I've never got to the end. There's some people two questions deep I got them, right? It's like okay, they're a two question kind of person. You know, there's there's the other one that's I've never found the end. After six questions he's still going, right? It's like like and you know, I mean I'm like, Okay.

56:09 Don't worry about him. you know, uh or her, by the way. You know, the the same is true with uh with our managers, the same is true with our money people. Now tell me how, you know, you know I and I go after And again. I want to know what you're not focusing on. And uh, you know, as a team.

56:27 And so that's that's where I'm so again. Be dishonest. Rat flak number one or kind of Or pa over exaggerate your

56:36 your comfort. And the second one is Be blind. Right, get off and off you're not seeing uh that part of your trade space kind of overfocusing, I would argue, is my biggest challenge. So

56:50 Everybody focuses on schedule. Oh schedule, schedule, schedule, schedule. And Took me a long time. And that could tell you a story about the James Webb telescope. It's that story. I knew when I joined the job. A month in where the problem's gonna be.

57:06 T tell me that story. Well, James Well Telescope's telescope for twenty years. We've been working on it. It's it's uh one of the most difficult stories. uh that we have in NASA, uh the international community. Canada build an instrument on it. Uh so did Europeans, right? It's uh basically a ten billion dollar investment. It's it's the most complex mission ever done. It's basically a telescope, six and a half meter mirror, uh protected by five tennis court sizes, uh kind of sun protection shields. It's really hard. The hardest thing to do.

57:36 is the telescope. And the instruments. When I came in, that was in integration and test, and everybody focused on that. Well, there are two more swim lines. One of them is the software. Operations piece.

57:52 And the second one is the spacecraft bus. The spacecraft bus is just, you know, the power, the communication, you know, it goes behind the telescope and just attach it and and it's also that You know, sun shield deployment. Okay. So when I came in kind of you you know, like like a good MBA, you know, you look at it, the critical path goes through the telescope and all these other things are off the critical path by months. And I'm like

58:18 Okay. I listened. for a couple of weeks to the updates and I said, You're never talking about the bus. And I Ask you about the schedule performance on the bus.

58:31 you know, and I'm learning, right? I feel very in uh inadequate, right? They're all much better than me, which is I feeling you have to get used to in my job, you know, you I'm not the smartest guy in the room. By a long shot many times. But I'm there listening, right? It's like well, tell me about the bus.

58:50 And I look at the schedule performance and they're losing schedule. And you basically take that schedule performance like, oh, we're doing fine. We're doing fine. You know, and we're so far off the critical path. I go talk to the director. He does the same kind of evasive maneuver. And I did not know yet.

59:08 how to do that. It's one of those things I learned in the last five years. I knew after a month this is gonna be my problem. What I didn't know. It's one of the biggest lessons of my life. During that time. As well as the year before, this team was so

59:25 had such challenges that it was making mistakes that cost the taxpayer of the United States eight hundred million dollars the the mistakes themselves. Cost six hundred million dollars. because of lack of focus, because of lack of cohesion in the team, stupid mistakes of the type that frankly, I would have kicked out undergrads out of my university lab if they made them. For example They did not tighten bolts the right way.

59:51 It's like how can you have a ten million a ten billion dollar asset? And not tight in bolts in a way that uh the faster catches. Of course it's a long story that tried to solve another problem. You know what? I'm a hundred percent sure, Shane. That there's a technician who

1:00:08 By the way. Thousands of those boats. There's a technician up there. Who's timing it's like these things are now catching. Is that the right thing to do? And I'm sure

1:00:19 That was being said, because it always is said, the technician knows. Well, but the team was broken enough. that kind of in that state that that information did not lead to action, uh we went to acoustic tests, the balls start flying off. It's one of the most embarrassing things. They The engines that are there are twelve engines were flushed out with the wrong chemical.

1:00:41 Instead of actually checking The person who flushes it out, they tried to clean it. That's exactly what they should do. They need to use the right chemical. Instead of checking with the supplier, A small company in upstate New York who did nothing wrong. Instead of checking with them They flushed with the wrong chemical. Now the problem is they didn't talk to anybody about it. So the engines got added.

1:01:03 Top. Engines got added to the bus. Now I have twelve of those engines to the That I now have to cut out. I have to replenish the kind of

1:01:14 valves that or kind of seals that were etched away by the wrong solvent. And all that happened as I'm nobody is focusing on it. And so for me. Overfocus, I tell you, is that you know gonna we're focusing on this because it's on the critical path. It's such a horrible mistake that people are making, you know, I mean And it's kind of I was like, you know.

1:01:36 Don't look at a chart like an MBA and I know we have an MBA, so no offense to MBAs. We need'em, we love them. But kind of look at them as a leader. Right? And of course they shouldn't be. uh they shouldn't be uh in contradiction, but just go with the with the thing. And don't look at the chart and say I'm fine. Because my critical path moves and that's what I learned in some book is okay.

1:01:59 Everything off the critical path is what you're gonna lose sleep over one year from now, if you're not watching it. And it's not that you're divert attention from the critical path, but you also need to focus off the critical path and pattern match. Go figure out. Get to know about this team. I only focused on it a year later. I basically asked

1:02:19 I basically gave up to get off there's uh get off the red flag version. of uh space is you you ask for an independent review team. I basically put the flag down and it says I lost trust. I did an independent review team that basically came back and says we need eight hundred or million dollars to fix those mistakes. And bring it together.

1:02:39 And uh and we had a horrible time on the Capitol Hill, kind of explaining that to the a disappointed science community. That we did and it And it was because of my mistake uh as a leader. Not

1:02:52 Following my gut, I have in my notebooks that I had the mistake packed. I just did not know how to how to In the meantime, of course. I stay connected with all parts of it, right? Kind of and I frankly I have the best team I've ever had. And uh as we are

1:03:08 uh as we're getting ready for the launch next year, right? That we're gonna do so because the team got a chance to actually fix itself, but I could have given that then that chance a year one and a half years earlier. Talk to me about that that sort of the team fixing itself and and uh go into detail about how you change the the How you rebuild the confidence, how you um change the trust level. how you go forward with that because I'm assuming the answer is not more bureaucracy.

1:03:37 That's exactly right. So so For me Remember, I'm the guy who sits in Washington, right? I am not gonna solve this problem. But what my job is to

1:03:49 create the environment in which the problem is solved and to hold the leaders accountable for solving it. Right. So What is absolutely critical is all the relevant leaders all the way to the CEO of the company. Agree on what the key priorities are. For example.

1:04:05 The first priority is mission success. Yes, we want to launch as soon as possible. The first priority is mission success. We will not rush and make stupid mistakes. Because every one of of these mistakes in that environment costs us hundreds of millions of dollars. So

1:04:20 saving a day and you know having six months to to fix a mistake is just a bad thing. So it's it's it's really aligning that Getting together, also recognizing is there needs to be a stride we find. There's the right speed at doing something. So in other words If you you know, like it's like biking. You teach your kid biking, it's like, you know, there's that the right speed of doing it. You can't do it any slower. It's not safer to go slower. You need to find kind of the speed of attention, the speed of

1:04:51 learning the speed of you know find that right speed kind of allow the team to get there but insist on the right mechanisms being in place. For example, what was really important, you know, I mean one of the reasons air air Born travel is so safe is because of the mechanisms that are put in place. Any pilot can say we almost made a mistake. For me, that almost made a mistake mechanism is so important for big projects. Talk about the almost mistakes because they surely will be mistakes if you don't fix them. What can we learn from almost mistakes? Also talk about the mistakes.

1:05:27 And so for me the question was, how do we do that? I actually met up with the leaders, met with the team to say we got your back. We know we need to get better. I I frankly I Uh we had a team uh I I basically replaced in my in my reporting structure everybody. And the simple reason for that is I wanted to basically create a before and after.

1:05:51 I wanted to make sure that the after is one that we are together and we are one we are locking on. Frankly. I observe I mean I do that often in reviews. I push against one person and see whether the other one comes to to rescue them.

1:06:07 I want I want to know, like do they let them sink? I mean frankly I I put more edge against one person. Sometimes I apologize at the end, sometimes it's exactly the appropriate thing to do, but I want to see whether that partner helps. Right, kind of are they helping each other, not against me, but together as a team to to come do that just for me. Also staying in touch was important for I mean I cannot stay in touch with all missions. In most cases I delegate. Small missions I delegate. I don't I don't need to be in touch.

1:06:35 For the highest missions, I meet with them. I meet with the leadership team. I'm I have the leader on speed dial. I know problems before it comes to me. Because we're transparent about it. So that's what that's what I do. So it's really again Replaced the Create a before and after if you're in that uh not shot uh drop all.

1:06:55 But then really recognize you're not gonna solve the problem and create the environment for that. I I really appreciate that answer and the detail you gave there. I'm I'm curious as to how the variance in presidential leadership affects your ability to build consistent programs. It's uh actually a really interesting question and and uh kind of I just want to tell you uh of all agencies in the United States, NASA is perhaps the one that's the least partisan. So so basically

1:07:23 It's kind of interesting that if you look I came in under uh the Obama administration, I worked in the Trump administration, and kind of if you really looked at the priorities. That did not uh, for example in the science program substantially change. Right, because they we are, of course, part of a uh human exploration, uh campaign to the moon and then to Mars of which science is part. But if you look at

1:07:45 Take uh the Mars sample return kind of the uh mission, the web mission. Uh, they are there. And the reason for that is that actually the person who's in charge of collect kind of choosing the highest priority signs is actually not me. And I'm really glad for that. The process that we have built in the United States and uh other countries have different processes, but is we use our national academies, the thought leaders in the domains, to say what is the most urgent question that we should address right now.

1:08:16 Not What so what's the best m most important question, but what's the most urgent question? And that sets the priority. So so I actually don't go argue. With time should we go to Europa, you know, the moon there, should we go to Mars? Should we go to Uranus? We haven't been there in a while.

1:08:34 I asked the science leaders with that that collective diverse kind of community to come up with that priorisation. in a decadal plan. Every ten years we get that plan. And so I follow that and that has created stability. Basically both parties agree that that's the way uh to uh organized. And then the question really is, what's the money available?

1:08:57 That that is that is stuff. political side, right? Kind of how does it How does it go up and down? And you know, of course there's other priorities in the world than the science program. I understand that. It it sounds like that would be an Almost is there an equivalent for for doctors and medicine? Cause it sounds like that would almost be an ideal approach to directing some of that funding as well.

1:09:18 From a government perspective, not from a private uh Sector perspective. There are some elements of kind of uh NIH research that have a similar National Institute of Health research that have similar type of prioritization scheme. I would argue that, especially with NASA and kind of the space research, we have a a a better pr a better kind of consensus building process than many of the other disciplines, and it has really served us because

1:09:44 It creates a constancy of purpose. So it's not so much like I know if somebody comes in and says, Hey, look, uh, we want to focus on earth science, what are the next missions? They are not questions I'm like, oh, let me start thinking about this. I already know what they are. Because for the last decade all I frankly I've built that strategy And we're working on it. We just the only lever here is speed.

1:10:06 Right. So so how fast are we doing that? Because we know The earth is a connected system, we need to focus on it, right? And kind of we know about global change. Now the question is, how do we bring that data to To the community, so it helps them uh thrive on this changing planet. We already know that, right? So the question is, how how are we going? So for me. That is a really a useful tool. Two decades ago, the idea of SpaceX and its ambitions were sort of laughed at by the space community writ large. Uh, how do we ensure the biases of today are not slowing or blocking

1:10:40 Um The ambitious goals of private sector. It is true that uh I remember I w I wrote an editorial Yeah, something like twenty years ago or so, in which I basically made a symbol point and that said, Hey, the top talent right now works at space sucks.

1:10:57 And if they have enough runway. financial runway, they will be successful because they have the top talent right now. And I remember how much I got attacked over that. I was a university professor and frankly the way I got to that assertion is by just tracking students, right? Where are the three Sigma performers, right? And then and then I called MIT and I called other universities. They said that the same for them and I'm like

1:11:21 That's a pattern, right? And so so yes, I mean, of course that time has come and gone, right? SpaceX is a force to be reckoned with. I think uh Blue Origin, you know, Jeff Bezos' company is right behind them. There's many others. Rocket Lab, uh a company out of New Zealand, I think it's incredible innovation story for small launch systems. And it is true that uh in the government, right? That's where I work right now.

1:11:45 It's a very difficult time in a following sense, right? You know and and we need to make sure that we're not putting hurls into the way, right? Kind of so so it's in a in a following sense So what happens is If I walk into a room and any place at Nassau and I basically look at the leaders uh a significant fraction of those very good people

1:12:08 grew up in a one specific environment. Right. And they grew up in a place where, you know, after Apollo and which kind of NASA was the only game in town together with some contractors that also worked on with other agencies on big systems, but you know, in a contracting relationship using a specific set of contracting mechanisms and Okay, so where we are now.

1:12:31 is we have that otter. vehicle. Kind of a much more iterate iteration focused thing with failures, right? The first You know, the first two space X uh Falcon ones blew up, right? Uh, you know, and frankly on you know, Elon tells the story that He was on the final money, right? The one that worked.

1:12:47 I mean w it needed to work because it was the end of the company if it didn't. Right. That's what he says. I don't I don't know. So so the question really is how do we move forward with that? And it And of course, of course the answer needs to be that we actually bring people who speak that other language on the inside of the government. See

1:13:05 Diversity of thought. is a really important criterion of team. uh whether it's a NASA or any other entity, right? And And so for me, uh that that's something I focused on, right? I've been I've worked in a venture fund, uh kind of as a an advisor. I've kind of uh invested in

1:13:23 adventure things before, right? I've been on ports of companies and and so, you know, so I I I'm not the best at it. I know that I'm not the I know what I don't know. But I know kind of Have network over there. And so what's really critical to me is that I'm not the best in a room in NASA.

1:13:39 And if they're not in the room, others are in a room who speak that language. Now the good news is we're making progress and we're learning how to Go for it. And of course the proof of that is Uh the crude. Uh private vehic vehicles that are operating now. That that

1:13:54 Basically there were a lot of Saw papers that said that can never happen. It's impossible. And it's not just because Of space sex making.

1:14:02 enormous leaps forward. It's also the government making leaps forward. So I think it's gonna be a struggle as we go forward, and it's a struggle that we need to recognize as such. and basically make sure that we all do our work. uh in a in a way to advance it. It is a strength for us. to have commercial entities. It's not in any way threatening. This is the future we want.

1:14:24 That's no question about it. It's for us the question is how do we enable that? There's mistakes we can make in the government that are really horrible. Like if a a pre seed company pitches us for a hundred million dollars, we shouldn't just say yes. Because it's a pre seed company. See the venture capital community, because if it's a pre-seed company, only invest one million dollar in it. Why? Because they see a lot of issues that are there on team. market fit and so forth. So we need to bring that knowledge to bear too, kind of supporting of commercial entities doesn't mean that we say yes all the time.

1:14:58 It means that we our reaction is appropriate. to what these companies are and we become customers. We we learn how to utilize these companies without owning them. I do not want to own these companies. I want to be a customer. And so for me, that that's really the goal I'm after.

1:15:16 How how has that affected your ability to recruit the best people and your internal culture and motivation with the rise of SpaceX and Blue Origin? I think in general actually there's more excitement in space because of those partners. I actually don't believe that that that somehow sucked the energy out of it. You know, the NASA brand remains uh one of the top brands in the world. And and frankly, SpaceX added to that. They didn't subtract to it. And so for me, it has increased it. But what's also important, especially as we go to the leadership level, that we recognize that we need more. arrows in the quiver in our leadership tools, right? We need to learn how to handle these environments and learn

1:15:55 how to be agile, react to it, be learning organizations. And for me What I've done uh in my job is really broaden uh a much more diversity in the leadership team in all dimensions. But especially to kind of kind of reflect that environment. So we we need, of course, the very experienced internal And ask of people who frankly know more about this agency and what's possible.

1:16:18 uh on the inside of the agency, but we at the same time also need the others. who have worked in uh space sex and and and frankly uh or in uh related industries and are helping us make good decisions. Do you think it changes NASA's role at all in terms of risk taking where you can start to take more risks now and when things work out, you can pass that technology to the private sector?

1:16:42 That's exactly what I want to do. Exactly right. That's exactly what I wanna do. I wanna focus on the things that A company cannot do it because it's too crazy, it's too risky. So we have done things to uh c for that, right? The James Webb space telescope that I just talked about is one of those things. It's it's not possible to do in a private side thing. At at this moment in time.

1:17:04 But as we go forward, it may be. Uh we're also I have a new program, the commercial lunar payload services program to the moon, in which I basically said I'm Bill, I'm buying at firm fixed price. Delivery services to the moon. Who wants to play?

1:17:19 I did that after you know I came into NASA and I saw these Google X Prize companies that had been focused you know, been funded by by uh, you know, venture capital and other sources, not government sources. So it's like okay. If you have a company that could do that, I want to be a customer. By the way, I don't want to be the only customer, not interested whatsoever to own that industry, but I want to be an anchor customer. And by the way, I'm gonna take the risk. So what I did is I talked to every stakeholder. including those on the hill and say, look, the likelihood of that is not hundred percent. You should think of it as a fifty fifty shot on goal.

1:17:54 So we need to, you know, like hockey. We need to take shots on goal to score. So so for us it's kind of being regular doing that. uh is really important. So so we have a team that is running that that is kind of learning to dance on that stage. It's a very different thing than what we're doing to Mars.

1:18:12 uh or to the moon in the past, right? It's a very different diff different company and and frankly You know, it it it You know It this has lifted. So it's it's it's both leaning forward on kind of new things, but also

1:18:25 kind of learning how to hand off, even in places where we're not hundred percent sure yet that it works. H how do you think about giving these companies Um not only Sort of Um

1:18:37 Those contracts, but also valuable information that makes their product better. versus opening that information up to the world so that's the next Elon or the next Jeff Bezos gets a head start and you're not you're not um solidifying one or two companies as the only option going forward. And creating a effectively a monopoly that just acquires more and more information from NASA gets harder and harder to replace as time goes on. How do you foster competition in that space?

1:19:07 So we try wherever we can to make the information public. Right. I mean kind of whether it's the science data, how we do it, or we actually encourage people to write publications that said, How did you do it? You know, we just picked up a sample at Benu. uh you know this asteroid are using a new technology. It's an you can how did we do it? Go read the publication. We wrote it, right? There are there are some elements that kind of that that we wanna respect, right? Kind of uh the first one is intellectual property of individuals and uh of companies, kind of if you with your company develop a new technology. I mean, frankly, I don't wanna go stomp you out. I want you to be able to

1:19:45 lift use that to lift your company, right? That's good. Innovation needs to be supportive in that way. So for me I need to learn standing back, right? Of course as a As a government person, I'm basically looking at you through the eyes of a taxpayer. Is it worth my money to to pay pay for that l license? I think the other one is that uh of course the the laws that relate to export laws, right? That we have legal boundaries on some uh things. Uh you know, certain technologies we just can't uh we don't wanna

1:20:14 You know, there's a legal boundary. We're not gonna cross Uh but within those boundaries we are you know, trying to stimulate um innovation by driving uh forward by making uh information public. We also it's very common that we create uh kind of agreements with companies to help them.

1:20:33 Right. So our goal is You know, I mean Uh Elon himself has talked about a lot of stuff we learned from NASA in the crude thing, that frankly. We our Great experts taught him.

1:20:45 It's not um that's what we want to do. And and the next company can get the same service just the same way, right? So for us For us, uh, we want to hand off what we can. So, like you said, we can focus on the edge of innovation. Because uh companies cannot afford that yet. Yeah, governments can take risks that private companies can. I think that's a great place to end this conversation, Thomas. I thank you so much for your time. This has been fascinating.

1:21:12 Uh thanks uh for your time and thanks for all you do. I've uh listened to your show many many times, kind of I run every day, so so often you're in my ear when I run. Oh, I appreciate that. Thank you. Thank you. Uh

1:21:29 Hey, one more thing before we say goodbye. The Knowledge Project is produced by the team at Furnham Street. I wanna make this the best podcast you've listened to, and I'd love to get your feedback. If you have comments, ideas for future shows or topics, or just feedback in general, you can email me at shane at fs.blog or follow me on Twitter at ShaneA Parish. You can learn more about the show and find past episodes at fs.blog slash podcast.

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