URGENT UPDATE - Iran War Expert: 70% Chance US Sends Troops To Iran THIS WEEK! | Robert Pape

0:00 Iran is stronger today than it was before the war started. And this is literally the nightmare scenario that we've been worrying about. And the reason you're having me here is because in the next few months, the world economic crisis. is going to grow. And it does appear that you've been largely correct about what you said would happen. It's because I've been modeling the bombing of Iran for twenty years, and I've advised every White House from two thousand one to two thousand twenty four on different issues related to conflict. And right now we're coming into the stage We're like on the Titanic and we're about to hit the iceberg. And when the iceberg hits, I'm going to have a There's not enough lifeboats for everybody. So we are knocking on the door of the world literally running out of oil. And then on top of that, Stephen, we have another set of problems. For example, in Iran is attacking our base in Jordan, and we're in our ninth day of bombing in a row. The scale of eliminating the drone and missile threat is much bigger than people realize. Because they hide those drones everywhere.

1:05 So how real is the risk that the US will do some kind of limited ground operation with meets on the ground in Iran? It's bordering on seventy percent now, probably by the end of this week. But I'm concerned about terrorist attack because controlling pieces of homeland territory is the biggest risk factor for suicide terrorism. So the choice is do we have a global economic crisis, possibly recession, possibly worse, or do we let Iran control the strait aforemost. This is not a good place to be. So what is the most probable next thing that you think happens I think that question, Steven, is the most important question in the world. And I think the answer is Guys, I've got a favor to ask before this episode begins. The algorithm, if you follow a show, will deliver you the best episodes from that show very prominently in your feed. So when we have our best episodes on this show The most shared episodes, the most rated episodes. I would love you to know. And the simple way for you to know that is to hit that follow button. But also it's the simple

2:06 easy free thing that you can do to help us make this show better. And I would be hugely grateful if you could take a minute on the app you're listening to this one right now and hit that follow button. Thank you so, so so much. Robert Pape. With everything that's going on with Iran at the moment, the US Iran war. And everything that I've learned from you in the two previous conversations we've had on the Dire of a COVID.

2:31 I'm guessing that you're not really surprised. By what we're seeing now. No, I'm not. I've been modeling the bombing of Iran for twenty years. The uh the fact is the modeling has held up. And literally month by month by month, uh when we were first here, the big surprise for most people was that we bombed the regime in Iran and it still stood. It survived, even though uh we killed the supreme leader and something like 137 of their top leaders. Think about that. So that would be like

3:05 If somebody killed our president His wife, the first lady, members of the first family. half of the cabinet. All of the leaders in the Pentagon. All of the leaders in the CIA and about a third of the Congress.

3:21 That is what we did to Iran in those opening weeks in March. And nonetheless, that regime survived. And that was something that modeling showed for that twenty years that was based on uh substantial um patterns in history uh where air power alone had never toppled a regime going all the way back to World War One. Most people had not really heard that before. Many people, even in the military, did not fulfill how much President Trump won up against the weight of history. Then we shifted. We shifted to uh six weeks of a bombing campaign. And then what did we do? We shifted over to a two month blockade. Well, that was another version of punishment. So the US said that they were gonna block the Strait of Hormuz, basically trying to take control of it themselves. That's right. And therefore kind of punishing the rest of the world. Uh well they they didn't want to punish the world. What they were that did happen, but what they wanted to do was punish Iran. So they were trying to coerce Iran

4:24 To get the government to surrender control of hormones. So keep in mind what happened is on February twenty eight. That regime change bombing happened and it went on for a few days. But by March second, March third, Iran controlled Hormuz, literally within a few days. The ships stopped. Cool. And they basically have not reopened except for teeny tiny periods of time in a small in a modest way. And then you're stuck. How do you get

4:52 Iran to give up control of Hormuz or do you let Aw. continue to uh control her moves for as far as the eye can see. That's been the dilemma we've been in, Steven, since really the first week in March. And now it's become clearer to the world that is the core dilemma. We're at a fork in the road. Either we Physically take hormones back.

5:17 All those other tactics even the M O U didn't work. Didn't get the M O U uh the memorandum of understanding. Which was the I sat here with JD Vaughn and he told me that they were about to sign an agreement with Iran. Two Ultimat the war. And They had that agreement.

5:34 Yeah. JD told me that it was about to be signed. Couple weeks later, here we are. They're back to bombing each other. Yeah, there's really two big issues with this, Steven, with the MOU the MOU, the memorandum of understanding. Um I do believe that uh uh Vice President Vance sincerely thought it was going to uh had a good chance of ending the war. Uh but there's a big problem here, Steven, which is

6:00 When you listen to Vice President Vance, he approached this as a business deal. So he kept talking about all the benefits that were gonna come to Iran if they performed a fee for service. We want the straight open, and we're gonna offer you money in different ways if you will. open the straight. Well, this is just a fundamental misunderstanding of international politics. This may work great in real estate. I'm not saying it doesn't, but in a made major war like this, what's at stake is the balance of power. The balance of power. Now I want to explain that Before the war, before the war started, there was a balance of power where America was a send it.

6:43 Israel was the rising power and Iran was actually the declining power in the region. What happened? Almost within again two weeks of the war starting is the balance of power was shifting. Dramatically when Iran

6:57 became in control of her moves, this represents tremendous power in the future. That wealth, all of the potential that uh even though it hadn't been realized yet, equates to not just money to put in coffers, but it equates to military power. It equates to the ability to influence other states in the region to build a sphere of influence. This is power in terms of major power politics that was shifting here. And so it With the MOU. As uh you look at the MOU, JD Vance appears, we could just look at it, he appears to have thought this was a business deal.

7:36 So he appears to have thought we're gonna hold up the uh promise of say three hundred billion dollars that will eventually fall on you if you will just uh agree to do what we want and behave. Those aren't the clauses that matter to Iran. The clauses that matter to Iran were the clauses Which directly relate. to the balance of power in solidifying Iran Uh it's control of hormooths. And essentially this MOU is fundamentally a roadmap. to Iran becoming the regional hegemon.

8:13 Hegemon, what does that mean? The most dominant state in the Persian Gulf in the Middle East. Wait, so you're saying that this agreement would make them the most dominant state in the middle of the year. Absolutely. So why wouldn't they sign it within a heartbeat? They did. They did. Iran signed in fact most of these points were exactly the points that President Trump said he would never sign. In April when Iran presented the initial fourteen point plan in April. And the key and the key back at wool, then.

8:40 Well well, let me just explain the key the key things that happened here is that number one, notice in Article five. It says that Iran will make the arrangements. Uh with hormuz. That is the ships with hormuz. And it will not charge for sixty days. He doesn't say it will never charge. It says only.

9:01 Sixty days. So think about that. That this is already it written into the agreement that President Trump is signing. And then if you say, Well, what's gonna happen down the road, it's gonna be Iran and Oman. Who are going to determine The future fees. There's no mention here of the United States. There's no clause to even let the United States wiggle itself in. This is a perfectly clearly written clause, and this basically gives Iran control of the straight of hormous and also of the the the the discretion.

9:35 To set the fees for as far as the I can see with no constraint what sover. How do we know that this is the actual document? Because both the Iranian government and the White House put out exactly the same document word for word, um so that we can actually compare them literally word for word. So this is exactly the document that President Trump signed. There's no question that uh we have like an earlier draft. Now there were some earlier drafts leaked by Bloomberg. That's not what this is. This is the final one. But let me go a little bit further here, Steve. So here we're talking about the strategic base of Iran. And keep in mind controlling hormuz means controlling twenty percent of the world's oil. That's a fantastic amount of wealth and strategic power to build on in the future. No limits says that nothing about you can't spend it on missiles.

10:25 anything else. But up here with Lebanon. The first article So here Ten is it ten points. And there are three points that are really the critical action points that matter here. This promise of three hundred billion dollars down the road.

10:47 This is so far, you know, the th this is like holding out um uh funny money to the Iranians. These are the things that are actually short term, because this is happening now. So point one, you're saying point one I want to come back to, Stephen, because I want to explain. This is Iran's strategic base. Point number five. Point number five. But what happens to become the dominant power in the region need more than a strategic base. You want a sphere of influence. You want a sphere of influence here. And can I just can we So I'll hold this up here. Is that Yeah, that's good. That's good. Point number five is controlling the strait of hormuz. But many of uh the different countries, including Saudi Arabia, the U have already started to have pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormos. There were plans to do this for years, they were too expensive, but almost immediately uh they started to do that. So the Saud Saudi Arabia started to put out four to five million barrels of oil a day. starting in mid-March into the Red Sea on a pipeline that had already been built and hadn't been used. There's a little area here called uh Fujaira, which is where the UAE had a pipeline. That's almost two million barrels a day. So 20 million barrels a day were going through hormones.

12:02 Almost immediately seven million were being bypassed. Then there's all this discussion that Iraq might build some pipelines. There might be other pipelines here going through Syria. So what if you're Iran? You now control this, but Notice it's a declining asset that way. If you only control hormuz, within five years, good chance your power is gonna be whittled away. What you want to do is you want a sphere of influence. So what Iran started to talk about is their

12:33 security resistance belt where they wanted to control And they said from the Mediterranean To the Red Sea. To the Gulf. This was the leaders of the Revolutionary Guard. And why would you do that? Because you want to prevent All of those bypasses to Hormuz.

12:55 And they're already happening. And where's the key one? You don't you already have the Houthis down here. You have Hezbollah here, but you wanna make sure the Houthis are pretty secure right here. It was in so just again for the people that can't see. Yeah. So you're saying the Houthis are pretty secure where? The Houthis are pretty secure down here in Yemen. They've been fighting uh with the Saudis for quite some time. They've held their own. Uh we fought a war with the the uh the Houthis in May two thousand and

13:25 twenty five to try to get them to uh pull back from a temporary shutdown of the Red Sea, and we lost essentially. Um so we couldn't beat them. But the big one that was at issue was uh Lebanon and it's and my point is it's not so much uh that they love Hezbollah. They do, of course. They've had long time uh decades of relationships with Hezbollah ideologically, there's there uh there's good reasons for that. But there's something else that's a power reason that's being ignored. Uh here. To have drones right here in Lebanon. So if there's a pipeline that comes out here through Syria, if you've got some other pipelines that are coming out here, You've got Hezbollah here that can act as your Houthis. They can actually attack the shipping. So now you have a you're you're Iran. You're a major power. You're the dominant power in the region. You don't just control this area here and the Strait of Hormuz and Iran itself. You have an arc.

14:27 A security arc here that in uh is a sphere of influence, but it's an operational sphere of influence. This is not just a piece of paper or something to talk about. This is what's guaranteeing you you control all of that oil. Whether it com the oil from the Persian Gulf comes out through Hormuz, whether it comes out through Syria, or whether it comes out through the Red Sea. And that's what Article one is about. So how come that's that's what I'm saying is not when I listen to Vice President Vance, which I've listened to your interview and other interviews, a super smart guy. Okay, this is not a matter of that. Okay, uh but he's thinking of it as a business deal. We want Hormuz open. What's it gonna take to pay? They're not looking at that. They're looking at they wanna be A regional hegemon. This is their roadmap, and that's why they stuck to those goals. But they sign this document, but then the war has kicked off anyway again.

15:24 Because what happened is President Trump signed the document. He owned the document for it for a day. He explained that he signed the document because this was literally four weeks ago, because the world was gonna run out of oil in four weeks, and he wanted to open Hormuz. So President Trump saw this as a way to try to uh open hormuz. But what happened immediately after President Trump signed the document, literally starting in the next forty eight hours, is uh President Trump started to and his administration started to undermine the document, violate the clauses in that document. So issue number one was Secretary Rubio establishing a framework accord agreement in Lebanon, which essentially would lock in Israel's military presence in Lebanon as far as the eye could see.

16:19 Whereas Article one in the document says that uh the United States would guarantee the territorial integrity of Lebanon, which I'm everybody would realize would mean Israel is is violating the territorial integrity of Lebanon. It's not ensuring it. So that would mean Israel can't be locked in there and still be faithful to Article One. So the framework agreement immediately violates Article I. The second thing that happened, and this happened shortly after the framework accord, is President Trump started to encourage uh passage through the Strait of Four Moves, uh through the southern Uh there's three routes through the Strait of Hormos. The central route, which used to be in existence, the main route before the war, now that's where the eighty mines are, so nobody's using the central. Oman, or they're passing through the Iranian passage, which is of course near the coast of Iran. And what President Trump did is he started to encourage this passageway ships to um bypass or pass through Hormuz on the southern passageway, but with no coordination with Iran.

17:27 With no um even um often with their transponders turned off. In fact, President Trump was bragging about this as his secret way to sort of uh bypass Iran's control of the Strait of Hor moves. He literally bragged about this on multiple posts on True Social. Well that directly uh contravenes Article five. And then the third thing that happened is if you look at we haven't looked at Article 11, but if we look at Article 11, you would see that Iran was um uh due to have some of its frozen assets, some of its assets that were seized by the United States and have been held for decades. Unfrozen. And it And there's a specific sentence which gives a wrong

18:10 the exclusive right to determine um what's gonna happen with that money. And what President Trump said is they can have their money, but only if they give it to the farmers, the US farmers, and buy American grain. That's the third violation of the MOU. So what happened here, Steven, is President Trump owned The MOU he uh and was faithful to it uh for at least a day, maybe two. And this represented a strategic defeat for the United States. And he even explained why he accepted that strategic defeat uh very clearly and forthrightly. I call that

18:44 owning the loss. He owned the loss for about a day or two. But then He tried to reverse the loss almost immediately, Steven. And that's how we're back at war. Because the big miscalculation that happened in this period was assuming that if President Trump didn't restart the war, the war would be over. The mis what who started the war who started to shoot the ships in the Strait of Formos? It was the Iranians. Why did they do that? Because we were violating the MOU, bypassing their control of the Strait of Hormuz, and that means

19:26 Preventing Iran from becoming The regional power the rising regional power, ultimately the regional hegemon. So this is why they violated it wasn't so much a legal understanding. This is great power politics, Steven. Iran wants to be The dominant

19:44 State. In the region. The United States Does not want to run. to be the dominant state in the region.

19:52 That has what is what this war has been about. Since The first week in March. And now it's five months later. And we're still at that.

20:03 Point. There should be a button just down below here. And if it says subscribed, you're already subscribed. If it says subscriber, that means you're not yet. And if you're not subscribed, please could you do us a favor and hit that button. It helps the show more than you know. And according to the algorithm, you're someone that watches our show, but you haven't yet hit that button. Thank you so much. Did it run Charge people to go through the Strait of Humuz before this. No.

20:27 Never did. Did they control the Strait of Hormuz at all? Well, before uh the war started, not at all. Before the before February twenty eight, Iran did not control the Strait of Hormuz. What Iran did is it moved from survival to ambition. So Iran saw there was an opportunity with the bombing. Uh because the United States had no mil we didn't even have our navy here. There was no means whatsoever uh to sort of offset this this uh Iran's uh control of the Strait of Harmon's nothing at all. Iran took this as an opportunity.

21:02 And the opportunity was to seize power. So is it the Two hypothesis that actually this War might have strengthened

21:12 Oh Iran. Because now it has this control over energy. On a global basis that it didn't have before. Without a doubt. Without a doubt, Steven. I don't say this with any happiness. There's really no question at this point that Iran is stronger today than it was before the war started on February twenty eighth. And that's because it controls uh the Strait of Hormuz, meaning that it can threaten at will.

21:42 Virtually any ship. It goes through the Strait of Four moves. It's demonstrated this over and over and over again. Even when the ships turn off their transponders, they are still able to threaten ships as they go through. And every time a ship tries to run the gauntlet, they run into a drone, uh mine, they run into basically Iran's barrier. and that is Iran's power. There was a a tweet that went viral this week.

22:09 Um about this. I'm gonna read the tweet here. It says, I'm confused. The US has the most powerful military on earth. We've bombed the hell out of Iran for four months. Trump says their air force, navy, and nearly all of their missile capabilities are destroyed. So how is Iran still capable of hitting US bases right now? Because only a small fraction of its drone arsenal is necessary and missile arsenal in order to inflict that damage. Iran entered this war with thousands, we think tens of thousands of drones. missile uh ballistic missiles, anti shipping missiles, which are lower uh sea skimming cruise missiles. Um and even though we have destroyed large fractions of their uh of their missiles, they have plenty left over to hit these uh these targets because they're doing saturation attacks. They're essentially doing swarms. They're saturating our uh our defensive capability and the the uh the drones and missiles get through plenty enough to damage it to the point we can barely use it if if if at all.

23:21 So is it is it mainly drones that they're using at the moment to conduct these attacks on the Strait of Hamouse and on US bases? Uh it's been a combination in the month in in March, it was mostly intermediate range ballistic missiles and then drones. Since about the middle of March um until just quite recently, it's mostly been drones, except for Israel, when Israel's been attacked, it's it's been very heavily with ballistic missiles. Uh but what you're seeing now that's just in the last week is you're starting to see the use of ballistic missiles. You're seeing the use of cruise missiles. These are the sea skimming missiles here and they're being used in against multiple targets. So the full Arsenal. that Iran has the full range of the arsenal.

24:11 appears to be fulfill stocked very well, and they're showing no signs of running out of ammo. If anybody's running out of ammo, it might be America running out of interceptors to shoot things down. Um but we don't know that as a fact. And I think that what you're seeing is Iran has been highly intelligent intelligent about how it has deploy its its missiles. They have no navy, it's been knocked out. They have no air force, that's been knocked out. They have no air detection. That's been knocked out. Their radar has been knocked out. And just about everything's been knocked out. Virtually everything they have has been knocked out.

24:52 He said that on Truth Social in May twenty twenty six. If everything has been knocked out. Mm-hmm. Then how come? There's no safe passage through the Strait of Hamoose. How come this weekend we saw more Americans tragically die Um because of Iranian attacks. Because what they have left we can't knock out and is plenty.

25:12 to do the damage. That's the fundamental problem. We took out the easy stuff to hit. They didn't need it. In order to seize control of Hormuz and keep hormones and start to defend themselves against uh more aggressive pressure. And the bottom line is that

25:30 It's it's very difficult, if not impossible, to eliminate that capability. We would do it in a heartbeat if we could right away. Explain to me in just simple terms why it's so difficult to remove that capability. You know, I was looking at this picture here, which shows the size of a drone relative to another object which is a car. So I guess there were two questions, which is like where do they hide these and how easy it is Is it to make one of these drones? So they hide those drones, Steven. Everywhere. Okay. Okay. They can they're in drone caverns, they're in warehouses. They're

26:08 Everywhere. They could be so that drone, just to kind of uh give you a sense here, would easily fit in this room. But the reason this is so difficult is notice how small that is here, that that drone, compared to the scale of where it could be. And this is what I really wanna uh show you because this is I think the hardest part. to explain to to people as I'm talking in whatever format I'm talking is it's the scale of eliminating the drone and missile threat. is much bigger than people realize because they're hearing measurements. Well, we've destroyed X percent and Y percent. And that's why you're getting the question. But if you look at this map this is what they where a these drones, these Shahid one thirty six could literally be anywhere. In this radius.

27:00 Five hundred mile area. And Notice. How huge.

27:07 This area is This area. This area like this is bigger than California. It's one and a half times. the size of California. So I guess it's like trying to find A truck in California.

27:21 It's like trying to find a truck in California. These little things here are the Shahid drones. Yeah. Okay. And what we're doing in this area, which is mountainous. So this is why we have a a three dimensional, it's not just a two dimensional problem. It's a three dimensional problem. We'll show you some of these uh V visuals on screen now just to show what the train where they're hiding these trains might be like. Anywhere in these mountains there's all kinds of and if we kind of imagine this as a visual so this is The general problem here we have, which is just this stuff could be anywhere.

27:57 And now. These are the drones. And this is the terrain. that the drones are going to hide it. And notice I've just sprinkled some here, but now I'm going to cover these up.

28:10 With more terrain. And notice you can't see those drones anymore. And now I'm gonna put in some more drones somewhere else. And now we're going to put another layer in, and this is this is again it's the three dimensional part of the problem. Meaning hard to find from the air.

28:27 Now if I get my people out and I start going in, now I could start to dig'em out. But let's just keep doing this for a while. So now I'm putting in another, say, twenty drones. And I'm going to cover it yet again. And then I'm gonna put in Uh another set of drones? And I'm covering it yet again.

28:49 I guess you could pull all the drones in there and you see you would still be able to cover them. You would yes, but you wouldn't do it in you would do it in layers. So they're gonna make it so that if you find one, you're gonna have to work really hard. You have to get'em drone by drone by drone, or at least in clusters of them. I guess also an important point of context is they're also making new ones this whole time. Exactly. So our estimates that we have leaked from the Pentagon are in April. That's months ago. These drones they're they were making um fifty five thousand a year and giving them to Russia. So just think about that. That's thousands every single month. Why haven't they made uh another five or ten thousand drones since April? If you want this to open.

29:34 So let me know the straight of four moose. The straight of four moose. So now let me just explain. So this is our problem. If you want the straight of four moose to open, it's not good enough to say, oh look, I've I've found like dozens or hundreds of these drones. You've gotta persuade the shipping companies. That their ships are safe. They don't. obey orders from the Pentagon.

29:59 You can't order the shippers to go through. Because the ships are expensive. The ships are expensive, and the crews don't want to die. Oh, in the many millions. Millions and millions of dollars. So I don't know the exact amount of these uh tankers, but each tanker will carry between seven hundred thousand and over a million barrels of oil. And so they have quite a the just and you can do the math right there to see how much each ship is worth carrying that much, uh uh that much oil. I was looking at the cost here. It says when you combine a brand new vessel with a full tank of oil, a ship single tank crossing the Strait of Hamouse is a floating asset worth Three hundred million. Oh wow. See I didn't know I learned something from you every time. Um that's not even the lives on board, which again are gonna cause it an insurance problem, but also no one wants to people to die. Well, and they don't want to die. So you're gonna have mutant. They're not going to so this is why you're seeing more ships leaving? Then you're seeing ships come in, and the ships that are coming in are very heavily coming to Iran's ports. That's one of the reasons President Trump put the blockade back on. It's because what happened here is the MOU, this whole idea is not opening up the Strait of Four Muse. It's not preventing. What's

31:14 gonna come in the next few weeks, maybe month, which is the world economic crisis. We are knocking on the door of what President Trump told us he was trying to avoid, which is the world literally running out of oil. And just today, before we started, The Houthis, which big ally of Iran. So just to come back here and and reshow the map, uh, remember I said that. Once uh the Strait of Hormuz became shut down, there was two million of barrels coming out every day through um for the UAE coming out through for Gira. And then four to five million uh coming out from Saudi Arabian oil going out to the Red Sea. Uh and this is the the port there at the Red Sea. Well, the Houthis have just shut this down literally today. Oh, really? Literally before we came on. Uh it happened about six hours ago. This has been escalating for several weeks. Iran's been asking for this. This is part of the general escalation that we're seeing. Okay, so we've got the Strait of Hamoose closed. We've got the Houthis closing the Red Sea. So there's no

32:24 Oil flowing through there. Yeah. So Are we on the verge of an economic crisis if things don't change quickly? Yes. Yes. This is a the this is literally the nightmare scenario that we've been worrying about. And the reason is is this. Go back and let's let's think about this from the twenty million barrels of oil that was going through the Strait of Hormuz. So when Iran Gain control of the straight of hormos.

32:51 What happened immediately is the uh Saudi Arabia and the UE started to bypass hormones with seven million barrels a day. So that means only thirteen million at issue, right? That's a little that's helpful. The next is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the United States. And we started to release About five or six million barrels a week through the Through the strategic oil. When

33:19 Uh we started to do this it's right around the middle of March. I can't remember the exact date, but notice that you put a big dent in that. And so that's one of the reasons the oil markets did not go crazy right away. So I've got some data here, then it says, um, President Trump authorized the emergency release of one hundred and seventy two million barrels of oil from the strategic reserve designed to be pumped out over roughly 120 days. This wasn't just a US issue or U the US acting alone, the US drawdown was part of a massive coordinated effort By thirty two member nations. Of the International Energy Agency, who collectively agreed to release 400 million barrels from their emergency stockpiles because these massive releases

34:03 um were done to offset the Hormuz blockade. The US strategic reserve has been heavily depleted, and as of july twenty twenty six, the reserve has dropped down to roughly three hundred million barrels, which marks the lowest level the reserve has since nineteen eighty three. A more than forty year low. They're being depleted. Once you spend your reserve, you don't get it refilled. And that's what I think President Trump was talking about when he said we're about to run out of oil in four weeks. That was exactly the date because we've just run to the date of uh that that quote. What you just read is we're coming to about the 120th day. And so what that means is all of that cushion that we had in the system to protect the guy the price of gas already went up. Now you have even more risk. And then on top of that, Steven

34:55 We have another set of problems besides the oil itself, which is refining capacity in the world. So we we don't uh put crude oil in our cars, we put gasoline in our cars. Diesel as well. Well how do you get the gas in the diesel? You refine the crude. So that means the refineries need to work. Well where are much of the world's refineries? in the Persian Gulf. Not just oil comes through the Persian Gulf, refined product. They're called distillates. They come through the Persian Gulf as well.

35:29 Now, so that means you've shut down something like uh twenty-five percent or a third of the world's refining capacity. Now let's marry this to what's happening with Russia and Ukraine's blasting Russia refineries in Russia. So what's happening, Steven, is you are getting not just the decline of crude itself is about to run out, but the refining capacity now has been heavily uh uh strained and and limited. Uh it might be down, you know, forty percent. I don't know the exact number, but it's something on that order. And what you're seeing then is what I think President Trump was seeing a month ago, which is he wanted the Strait of Hormouth to open But he also didn't want to own the L and what President Trump has decided is He'd rather take the risk with the world's economy than own the L.

36:22 Own the loss. And maybe he'll change his mind. Which means he he'd rather take the risk with the world's economy than just own the L. So what would owning the L look like in this? Owning the L would allow Iran to follow through with Article five. So if we go back to Article Five. Set precedents for all of these straits. Yes. Around the world to that. That's exactly right. Well, these are the choices we have, Stephen. So so the choice is do we have um uh a global economic

36:58 Crisis. Possibly recession, possibly worse. Or do we let Iran control the strait of hormone. Well, that's the fork in the road that I was telling you was the stage three dilemma. So that's exactly where we were in Mar so so Steven, just to explain to your audience, because they're trying to figure out how are we getting here, this is what the twenty years of modeling. was really showing.

37:21 We would very quickly get to this fork in the road. It wouldn't take months and months. It would happen right away. And President Trump has been trying to avoid the escalation trap. This is called an escalation trap. And he's been trying to avoid that trap. He tried to avoid it with bombing for six weeks. He tried to avoid it with the blockade. He tried signing the MOU. He let JD Vance offer money and that that none of those were were actually working. And what he where he is now is still at this fork in the road. the dilemma of the escalation trap. Either he owns the loss, which it it means everything you just said and becomes known as the president who allowed not just the Strait of Four Moz to be uh be controlled, but set a precedent for other countries and other non state actors to control their their choke points. Or we have the um we take it back physically. Are we gonna physically take it back? So we'll go through the stages in the escalation trap uh straight away after this, after we move on from this point around. Because I think some of my audience might not know that this escalation trap is historically predictable.

38:32 And that you've been talking about this for a long time. And it also allows us to understand exactly what happens next. Um I was quite shocked when you just said that Trump said recently that the US would run out of oil within four weeks. So I did I just looked down at some research here and it says that during a recent press conference at the G seven summit in June twenty twenty six, President Trump made a blunt admission about how dangerously low global energy oil stockpiles have become due to the ongoing crisis in the Strait of the News. His direct quote was, We run out of reserves at about four weeks. You know There are reserves all over the world and we would run really Really low.

39:11 And there'll be a time when you wouldn't be able to get it. It would be Bedlam. Yes. Why is he saying that? Isn't that

39:19 Doesn't that make him look bad? It it makes him he's being, I think, forthright in why he signed the MOU, which is to avoid that bad one. The world economic crisis. However

39:33 The problem for President Trump is in order to avoid the bedlam. He has to let Iran control the straight of four moves, establish that sphere of influence I was explaining and He Almost immediately after he said that statement within forty eight hours.

39:51 Undermine. that MOU that would have avoided that. Had the MOU just been uh implemented as written. We may not be sitting here today talking about the impending world crisis. And I believe one of the reasons we're knocking on the door of more escalation right now is because President Trump is desperate.

40:14 I think he's taking low risk. Uh at high risk military option. Mil I think he's pursuing military options he likely knows are unlikely to work, but they're his best. chance to open more moose before the crisis literally hits. But there's also another before, which is the midterm elections. Yes. Am I right in thinking that this midterm election takes place in three months time and if his approval rating is low at that point because of what's going on

40:46 with the war because when Americans go to the pump to fill up their cars, they notice the prices are way higher higher than usual. That means those Americans in the election the midterm elections will vote for the Democrats, which means he will lose the Congress. So he basically needs to make sure Americans are happy in three months' time. He he needs to take the best chance he can can to make that happen. Okay. And I think that what happened here, Steven, is He his quote, you just quoted him, I think it was June seventeenth. He's saying

41:17 That within a month Those reserves are gonna run out. And we're heading to that bedlam, that economic crisis, and that is already happening. His side four weeks later.

41:30 We're right on that trajectory. That trajectory has not changed. Maybe we bought an extra week or two of time because some oil did get out from the from the Persian Gulf. Not that much, but enough for a few weeks here. So maybe It's it's gonna now not fall on August first, maybe it'll be August uh say fifteenth or seventeenth. But you think. He's gonna lose uh there's a good chance that the Republicans will lose more seats in the House and in the Senate. That will make him the lamest of lame ducks for his last two years. Uh it may not be that he would be removed from office. That's probably not gonna happen, but it could be that he will be impeached again, he'll be tied in knots by the uh by the democratic controlled house or a democratic controlled house and senate. And um this is what he's trying to offset and but he knows something that most of us, I think, um are not really taking seriously, uh, which is that the world is like we're like on the Titanic.

42:35 And we're about to hit the iceberg. And maybe that iceberg moved a little bit further away, but we're still right on the trajectory to hit that iceberg. And it's coming, and when the iceberg hits, there's not enough lifeboats for everybody. And who's going to be short of lifeboats? The Republicans. And that's what I think why I think people made the mistake when they said, Well, President Trump couldn't possibly escalate. before the midterms couldn't possibly for weeks, Stephen, uh been on shows talking about, you know, why uh President Trump will escalate maybe after the midterms, maybe next year, but he certainly and I kept trying to explain this is not that's probably not right. And that's what you're seeing now. You're seeing that that President Trump is desperate. To try to open the straight of hormos. He's he I think is being told probably directly from his military these options are very low uh risk. They're very high risk. They're very unlikely to succeed.

43:31 But now the the Titanic is gonna hit the iceberg. His only other choice. is to completely walk back and say you're right, Iran. You control hormones, you set the fees, you don't have to make any limits on your nuclear program.

43:49 You are the fourth. Center. of world power and I Donald Trump It happened under my watch. That's a

43:58 Big. L to wear on your chest, Steven. And that would be true, I think, for any president. This is what Lyndon Johnson faced in Vietnam. We now have the tapes that Johnson was making. in the White House, in conversations. It wasn't just Nixon making tapes here. Johnson uh was making tapes, and we now have tapes of Johnson as he's making decisions to escalate the Vietnam War, explaining that He knows this is very unlikely to end the war. It's likely to make it worse. And why is he doing it? He's doing it because he's trying to uh hold on to his uh great society program. just for another four or five months. And what he's hoping is that even though the escalation is likely not to work, there's some tiny chance it will. And in four or five months, he'll be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat.

45:00 He became uh it failed domestically. Uh Lyndon Johnson had to uh pull back from running for reelection because of the escalations in the Vietnam War. And President Trump is running the same risk that even though I believe that he's doing this because he's trying to give him him himself and the Republicans the best chance to win uh in November, uh it may not work. That's why I think President Trump already planted the seed of uh China meddling in the elections. He's already started the conversation uh that um uh that There's a another possible stone election in our future, this time possibly uh by foreign country, possibly China. One of the things you've heard me talk about quite a lot over the last couple of years, and this is something that's true in business and content, but also with everything in life, is that consistency is the thing that really, really compounds. The same is true in sales. When your team is small, consistency happens naturally. The team knows of every deal, so nothing gets missed. But as I've experienced, when you grow,

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47:52 Your first three videos are totally free at hn dot com slash D O A C. That's H E Y G E N dot com slash D O A C. See that? On this point of the escalation trap. Um it has several stages to it, the escalation trap, as far as I'm I understand. Do we have the picture of the third?

48:15 Yeah, yes. So I made this I think it was uh something like March 2nd or March third. Okay, so for people that can't see the visual, we'll also explain what we're showing here, but we will put it on the screen for those that can see. Yeah. So what I did um is I was um Uh trying to find a way to graphically show the escalation trap. And what this looks like for those who can't see is an upside down pyramid. So basically it starts small at the bottom and gets worse and worse and more and more red and more and more red as you get through more and more stages as you go to the top. In the beginning, you start with limited strike. That's the bombing of leadership bomb. You kill the leader, you kill uh you you try to topple the regime with leadership top. Uh and that leads to retaliation, stage two. Stage two retaliation is Iran takes hormones. And that then leads to us doing some retaliation. I would still call it in stage two, by the way. Um that's why I kind of kept it the same color. Where we're doing the uh six weeks bombing, that's also where the blockade is. And notice then you get to this red stage here, notice it's where economic crisis is. This is where stage three really starts. Okay. Now we were able to offset that economic crisis. So when we talked in March and April, it wasn't clear, uh, especially China, they were still buying. So that economic crisis was a lot closer in um March and April than it became after the summit with She because she stopped.

49:46 buying five million barrels of oil a day. I wanna underscore that. And what did she get for that? Uh President Trump last week just blamed him for uh meddling in our election. So I'm not sure she has thought that was a good deal. But still. We're at this point now. And this is where stage three is, or the choice is if you want to get off of the escalation trap, you then have to let Iran become uh the gain power, become the rising power in the region, the regional hegemon, and essentially the fourth center of world power because once it um gains power uh with Hormuz, has a sphere of influence, a year or two from now, Steven, they're very likely to have nuclear weapons. So this is this this is what it means to let Iran win. It's not Iran will win and be nice. Iran is gonna become the a very powerful state in the region. If we go further.

50:43 And this we actually uh do escalate and with the other map I'll explain what I think the real issues are gonna be between now and the midterms. Then we're gonna head into twenty twenty seven into the deep red. Which is the actual forever war. So many people this week and next week, they're gonna I'm gonna be on a lot of shows, Stephen talking about are we in a forever war? Well, that's coming, okay, possibly, but right now We're coming into the stage three question, which is are we going to physically use force?

51:15 For the first time for real. to seize back control of at least part of hormuz and so forth. And that is the big question. Because if we do that, and that's why I think the real issue on the table right now is uh can the United States physically open hormuz between now and the midterms. I think that question, Steven, is the most important question. in the world. For the world.

51:46 For the world's economy. for international terrorism against Americans, uh, for whether or not we'll truly will be in a forever war. This is going to be decided between now and the midterms. And the th and the and the key issue is Can we physic open the straight of horn moves between now and the midterms? And I think sadly the answer is almost surely not.

52:13 It's funny'cause you mentioned. LBJ. So I was looking at some of his quotes around the time to see how they link. Because everybody knows the Vietnam War is being a war that just lasted forever and really achieved nothing. I mean that's generally the consensus that you read about. Yeah, what do you got? And LBJ said at the time, I know we ought not be there, but I can't get out. I just can't be the architect of surrender. And by this, he knew that the current strategy was a mistake, but he felt politically paralyzed because backing down would be like a humiliating defeat, which again links to Trump's situation. He also said, Let's get somebody that wants to do something besides drop a bomb. But that can go in and take And by that he meant to be a little bit more than I've been.

52:59 Relying entirely on overwhelming American air power wasn't actually solving the unconventional ground level problem, which again links to Trump's situation as you've described. That's the transition from air power rolling thunder to the heavier use of ground forces. And both of those, of course, ultimately fail. He also said, I don't and this is again LBJ's comments as president during the Vietnam War, I don't think that we can fight them ten thousand miles away from home and get Anywhere in that area. It's just the biggest damn mess that I ever saw. By this he meant trying to project military power halfway across the globe against an enemy fighting in their own backyard is incredibly difficult and likely futile. Where links to the R situation. And lastly, L B J said

53:45 A man can fight if he can see daylight down the road somewhere. But there ain't no daylight in Vietnam. There's not a single bit. And by this he meant that there was no realistic achievable endpoint or path to victory for its military strategy. And that also links to how like when political pressures train change. And you know, Trump's recent admission at the G seven that the world is about to run out of um their energy reserves is a stark realization that the current strategy is hard. It has a deadline and there's no Clear solution in sight.

54:15 Yeah, it's so tragic. It's so tragic that we're essentially replaying the Vietnam War. Trump is replaying the decisions that Lyndon Johnson made and coming to very similar decisions, which is he believes, as Lyndon Johnson did, That even though the military escalation would be a likely loser on the on the battlefield, that loss would take months and months to play out. So there was some chance he could pull a rabbit out of a hat. But if he accepted immediate abrupt defeat, that would totally I basically before you came I looked at the top twenty questions that the internet currently wants to know about the Iran war. Oh great. And we've knocked off a few of them already. Okay. But we've got a couple of them left. Yeah, I love it. Um, one of them is can the United States actually force the Strait of Khmuz fully open with our current strategy, or does Iran now hold lasting leverage over this critical choke point?

55:17 The answer is um it uh the United States cannot do it. And this would be an opportunity, Stephen. Could I have that map back? Let me explain. Yeah, let me let me show you what I think is really in the off thing here. So a lot of people are wondering what are we gonna do with 8,000 ground troops? So we have somewhere around 4500, 5,000 Marines, somewhere around 4,000 or so troops from the eighty second Airborne. What are these troops actually gonna do? And I think that what President Trump is doing here, and I think you can really we can really see this. If I kind of explain this is what we are doing is we are concentrating our forces, our naval forces here. Into the Gulf of Oman.

56:02 We are not moving them through the Strait of Formuz. We're constant our carriers are in the Gulf of Oman and also our marine expeditionary unit is in the Gulf of Oman. Now previously these had been further away, way off the board in the Indian Ocean. We move them here closer. And this is important because these guns are are guns that have range to be able to hit the shore within about twelve miles. So what are you doing with these ships and what are you doing here is you are building a force that might be uh able to take a piece of territory at Charbahar or there's a um uh right in between Bandra Bas and Charbahar, there is a little port town called Jask.

56:54 And this would be exactly The kind of armada. You would build. In order to take

57:06 Or Jask. And the reason that you would do it politically for President Trump is because this could possibly be a symbolic victory. You could possibly Take the territory.

57:21 And hold it. For weeks. Now why would you be able to take the territory and hold it for weeks? It's because this is Pakistan. We haven't even shown the rest of Iran here. Uh Tehran is is is over here. So Maybe we wanna

57:38 So what we have done, Steven, is we have concentrated our forces here in the Gulf of Oman. This is our carriers, our destroyers, our battleships. And they can provide some air cover here for ships that might pass through uh the southern part here. So they I'm not saying this is the only possible mission. Uh but those Marines. And the eighty second Airborne, they're not helping they're not really

58:05 there to help ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz. But they're here. Okay, at least the Marines are here. Uh we don't they're somewhere in the Strait of O in the Gulf of Oman. We don't know exactly where they are. That would not be good. Yeah, that's right. So they're in the Gulf of Oman uh here, which is to the east of Hormuz. The Gulf, the Persian Gulf is to the west of Hormuz. So Hormuz is the true choke point between these two gulfs. And the Gulf of Oman here is then what's north of it is the southeastern coast.

58:40 of Iran which is Iran's population is mostly up here around the word Iran. So you're saying that the US might take A small part of Iran for Iran. With ground troops. With ground troops, that's right. And literally hold it. here uh in order to get a symbolic victory and in order for Iran

59:05 to knock us out, they have to redirect all of their attention to this uh and this would be this is why I don't think it's gonna work, is ultimately they will do this. Uh but in the short term, in a period of, say, a few weeks or so, this Uh there's a there's a chance, and I say it's a low chance. I'm not trying to tell you I would advocate for this, I would not advocate for this. I'm trying to explain what these true these forces are doing here because Otherwise there's no point in having these forces here.

59:40 If the US do I guess invade Iran from Capture. Capture Iran. From the sort of south East here. This would mean that Iran have a target to kill American soldiers. That's right. And the cost of losing American soldiers, especially back home in America, would be tremendous. Then this would be just the terrible politically to be on the ground and be dying in Iran. Well it will be divisive politically. So for people that are opposed to the war

1:00:16 This will make them even more opposed to the war. But for people that are supporting the war, and this is the part of the politics that I study, Steven, uh it's important to understand that there's a large part of MAGA. that is incredibly supportive of this war. In fact, the opinion polls uh uh tend to show that more MAGA supports regime change uh for Iran than oppose it. So this is not like MAGA has become Tucker Carlson country or something. This is still Trump country uh here and they want Trump to win. Well, what you were seeing here is that if there are if there are troops that are killed, you are likely gonna see, and you're seeing this on Fox News this morning, after three more died over the weekend, you're seeing a tremendous amount of support for our troops and therefore the war. Okay, so I've got some numbers here about public support. Based on recent polling from mid twenty twenty six, the ongoing military conflict with Iran remains highly unpopular with the general American public But support is sharply divided along political lines. Overall, roughly twenty seven.

1:01:24 to thirty four percent of Americans support the war. While a solid majority A fifty three to fifty seven percent oppose it. But then when you look at MAGA It says that seventy-seven percent to eighty-five percent of MAGA support the war. Those are MAGA republicans. And only five percent to fourteen percent of MAGA republicans oppose the war.

1:01:47 That's right. So what you were seeing is the divisions in our country. Which have been building for years. are still in existence with this war and they're becoming hardened in this war. And as deaths occur.

1:02:06 This is likely to harden the division. Not shift. At least not shift much, of Mega. to the anti war position. And the reason is because Just as Trump

1:02:19 complained when President Biden pulled out from uh Afghanistan. There this is going to be uh not just a loss for Trump if he pulls out. This will be viewed as a as as an insult to the people who died. And so people will say, so if we leave, did those people die as a mistake? Was it a mistake? Is their death were their deaths worthless? That's a hard thing, and that's one of the reasons why When troops die in war

1:02:49 For months. This can harden support for a war. Possible even grow it. Yeah over time, yes, it tends to whittle down. But in the in the near term

1:03:00 Deaths can actually harden support for the war. And that's a thing that most people aren't really fully grasping at. How real is the risk that the US will do some kind of limited ground operation with boots on the ground in Iran? Uh well over fifty percent. I think it's uh bordering on seventy percent now. Um and the reasons are that uh number one, the economic crisis that President Trump was trying to prevent and therefore the economic costs that will hurt him later. is already starting to become baked in what you're hearing this morning with the Houthis closing the pipeline area around uh Yanbu, it's called this uh port city in the Red Sea.

1:03:41 where the uh four to five million barrels of Saudi oil is coming out. What you're hear what that is gonna do is make the economic crisis even more baked in, even more likely. Unless it's immediately reversed. And even if it was immediately reversed tomorrow, that could be reversed again the next day after that. This is starting to spiral out of control because it's not just up to President. President Trump now to s to put this genie back in the bottom. President Trump can actually still uh can withdraw. And uh but Right now, Iran has to stop the escalation. It has to let the Red Sea oil flow. It has to allow ships to flow from Hormuz. And Iran is not is in a mood for revenge. Iran is uh there is emotions coursing through Iran, but it's not. um causing Iran to uh uh pull back. Uh it's causing Iran to want revenge. And the leader's statement, the Supreme Leader's statement just of a couple days ago, this was Saturday, uh two uh U.S. soldiers were tragically killed in Jordan. Um he called uh what the Supreme Leader didn't know. was uh use the phrase that he's going to deliver unforgettable lessons.

1:04:54 to America. Unforgettable lessons is the exact phrase by the Supreme Leader over the weekend. What you are seeing here, Steven. is as we have essentially as Iran um started to shoot net shoot at ships here to try to reinforce the MOU, President Trump up the ante. Now we're in our ninth week uh ninth day of bombing in a row. Now Iran is upping the Ante. And Iran is upping the Anne in multiple ways. It's attacking our base in Jordan, which it only rarely done since uh since March, actually. It's now with the Houthis closing the Red Sea. And we haven't yet talked about Kuwait, and we should talk about what happened here over the Weekend here in Kuwait because this is a harbinger of what's to come because it shows how ferocious the anger is by Iran and how hard it's gonna be to stop this spiral of escalation.

1:05:51 And that is what is one of the the That's what's gonna lead to President Trump thinking long and hard about putting those ground forces in. Because we're not making an independent decision now. So you said there's a seventy percent chance that troops could be put on the ground in Iran. Yes, I think within I think probably uh within the next month. Maybe even shorter than that. It could even be by the end of this week.

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1:07:29 You've shown me on the graph that you've just shown the escalation ladder, you can call it, and ha and where we are now. What is the most probable next? thing that you think happens with this war? The biggest thing I'm worried about is A mass casualty attack against American troops or American civilians.

1:07:51 Against American troops in the Middle East, but I'm specifically worrying about uh barrage of ballistic missiles against our uh naval ships in the Gulf of Oman. So the Iran is showing a uh through its the targeting it's that it's already been doing in the last uh week and a half, an exquisite ability to precisely target and um We don't know for sure they're able to track the movement of our naval ships in the Gulf of Oman or they're getting help. with either the Chi from the Chinese or the Russians in doing that. But I'm specifically worried that as this escalates, they've just closed the straight, they've just closed the Red Sea. If we keep going forward and we'll find out if we're gonna if Trump will pull back or not, but if we keep going forward, one of the big things I'm concerned about this week, next week

1:08:44 Would be an attack on a ship. Uh, and I think uh it would be a barrage attack. The second thing I'm concerned about is uh because we are now um literally threatening ground occupation. That's the biggest risk factor for suicide terrorism in my twenty five years of studying suicide attacks. We haven't talked about that, Steven. And the reason we haven't talked about it is because we were pretty far away from the big risk factor of how you start a big suicide terrorist campaign. That is now changing. Um, I've talked to my sub stack about this. Glad to talk to you about it now. Uh but I'm concerned about a mass casualty attack against Americans. This could be against an American airliner. It could be against uh I mean Americans on a a commercial airliner. This could be um against uh uh Americans, uh say business uh men in uh Aquaba. So you you might know there have been attacks recently in Aquaba, which is this really lovely resort town. I've never been there. And the uh and the fact is um there are business American businessmen um

1:09:52 uh moving all around the Middle East now to build these pipelines. And so I can imagine there being terrorist attacks against the uh the hotels that are staying at, uh the um German and um British embassies have just ordered their evacuation. America, State Department has issued an advisory over the weekend for Americans to start leaving the region. But I'm concerned about terrorist attack because threatening and or actually doing ground control, controlling pieces of homeland territory. is the biggest risk factor for suicide terrorism. That's what causes people more than anything else to strap on bombs. To kill others. While they're killing themselves.

1:10:33 So before we explain In detail. So when you say Steven, what I'm looking for in the next few weeks, I'm seeing the spiral of escalation now occurring. It's a two sided spiral. It's not just President Trump. Iran is uh uh escalating here as much as Trump, if not more.

1:10:51 And uh in this spiral of escalation, there could be a mass casualty attack either against our troops or against American civilians. And the American civilian attack could be anywhere in the world, it could be in Indonesia. It could be London, it could be anywhere. And if that mass casualty event happens, I think what you're gonna see is that this is likely going to cause that division we just discussed here to hard in America support for the war to harden even more. And you're gonna get though intense support for continuing the war now to stop.

1:11:28 uh mass casualty attacks by Iran in the future. So you have spent some of your career Studying terrorist attacks. And I guess suicide terrorist attacks. Specifically, yes.

1:11:41 Give me a a w a a view into the research, the work you've done there. You've written a book on it. Two. Two books on it. Yep. And then b ladder me up to how that's relevant to the moment we're in now. So shortly after nine eleven, this was remember, America was hit with a a terrorist attack here in uh New York, the World Trade Center, the Pentagon, uh nearly three thousand Americans died that day. I wanted to understand why. And I want to understand more the more I studied it, I w noticed that nine eleven was a suicide attack. It wasn't just a terrorist attack. So I started to collect what became the first complete data set of all suicide attacks around the world. Uh I did this Uh at the University of Chicago. I did this with uh a few research uh assistants, basically work study students. The suicide terrorism, the reason I studied it, Steven, was because it's the lung cancer of terrorism. Suicide attacks kill more people in the category of terrorism.

1:12:40 than all the other different kinds of terrorism combined. The suicide attacks are the biggest killer. Uh it's like lung cancer. We have other kinds of cancers, but lung cancer is the biggest killer. And what is the key risk factor? For the lung cancer of suicide terrorism. It's Military combat presence on territory, the terrorist prize. So with suicide terrorism, is it hard to stop? Because you know, it we can intercept missiles that are coming over pretty well, it seems, but suicide terrorism seems to be a completely different type of challenge. Suicide terrorism is like a precision guided is like turning a person into a precision guided weapon.

1:13:20 Because Literally. Nothing. Can better identify the most vulnerable point in a crowd. The most vulnerable point in a building.

1:13:31 the exact split second to set off the the the explosive. Better than a human. And w the how does the US, for example You're saying two things. You're saying that That attack could happen in the United States, but also it doesn't have to. It could happen anywhere in those regions where there's a high density of Americans or Westerners. Theoretically. That's right.

1:13:53 Because you know, the Americans could say, Well, we're not gonna let in anybody from those regions we're gonna get more diligent with passport checks, whatever. That will happen after the fur I let's God forbid I hope I'm wrong, Steven. But If and when that first attack happens, you're gonna see all that come out. You're gonna see what come out. You're gonna see all the idea of what can we do? Can we do passport checks? Can we do X or Y.

1:14:16 What this is right after nine eleven s similar thing happened. Let's hope nothing that large would would would happen. But let me just further explain that when I when I um compiled that database And it made a specific prediction. It predicted then that if we invaded and occupied Iraq, we would touch off the largest suicide terrorist campaign. In modern times.

1:14:39 What is it what is it about invading their country in particular versus bombing their country in particular. That causes suicide terrorist attacks from your research. Like what is it? Because bombing them from the sky is is is killing people. That the it's not the killing people part of this that matters. It's the political control part that comes with the ground forces. So the reason To use the ground forces.

1:15:07 is to impose political control. So that's not just killing people, Steven. So the reason why America put in ground forces is to get political control. Yeah. And that political control means the group controlled.

1:15:24 doesn't control its way of life. It's just sort of seen as a deeper violation. Is that ultimately what it is? It's a deeper violation that is uh not in control of the local population. So when we put in ground forces in Afghanistan after we topple the Taliban, we topple the Taliban with their power, by the way, but we don't get much suicide attacks in Afghanistan. Till we start pouring in ground forces in Afghanistan. That comes after we topple the Taliban. So we topple the Taliban in fall two thousand twenty one. And then we get the suicide terrorism starting several years later in Afghanistan. It's because that's when we're putting in the ground forces. So Donald Trump has just posted on truth social

1:16:08 a few hours ago saying every time Iran kills an American soldier they will pay for that killing many times over. This directive has been passed on to the Secretary of War, Pete Heggs, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staffs. and his other military leader. And obviously this is in response to losing an American life. And he's very actively tweeting as we speak. About the war. Um Tweet after tweet after tweet after tweet on Tree Social.

1:16:32 It it it begs the qu I mean I just don't know. Is there a An an achievable end game or off ramp here that restores the free shipping through the Strait of Hamoose, but also allows the United States to retract without appearing to have suffered a s a strategic defeat. No, Steven. There is not an achievable off.

1:16:52 Um that ship failed. First when um President Trump decided in the first week in March not to declare he could have declared my advice at that point, first week in March, was to declare victory and walk away. To say All you wanted to do was teach a Ron a lesson. You'd kill the supreme leader, a bunch of other leaders. Uh now let's go back uh to negotiate uh with um Uh about Iran's nuclear power. He did not do that.

1:17:20 When I was with you in April, I was giving a different advice. Um, that advice then was to militarily contain Israel. That advice was to keep a wid Israel was moving into Lebanon, doing other things, keep a wid on Israel militarily. Um President Trump has taken these ideas and I'm not saying because I said them, but he's taken those ideas months too late. If you look at what I'm I think President Trump might think he is trying to militarily contain Israel right now. Uh with the MOU, I do think he tried to declare victory and and and walk out. But the problem here, Steven

1:17:58 is that these are now uh a day late and a dollar short. They're just not good enough. So if you wanted to get back to the negotiating track What exactly are you going to um offer Iran to come back to the table at this point? The same MOU say, Oh, sure, we're gonna now just we're gonna we're gonna honor the MOU that we already signed and then we violated over and over and over. So you're not that's not credible. So is this a forever will? No. We're not yet in the forever war stage. But you said there's no way out. There's

1:18:32 The way out would be if the midterms come. And the Democrats win either the House or the House and the Senate. And they shut down the money for the war. Oh that is a way out. Oh, they can't.

1:18:48 Yes. That's what happened in Vietnam. They sh they they can shut down the money for the wall. They can shut down the that's what Congress did. Yes. Congress has the power. It doesn't use it very often. The last time it did this was in nineteen seventy-four. The reason I is I showed you on that escalation ladder, I said there is a stage five of forever war. We're not at a forever war yet. What would be a forever war would be um uh where that will come and and the reason I'm defining the the escalation period between now and the midterms is the most crucial. Period, right now. This is gonna determine everything and the and what's gonna determine the outcome of the next few months is can America open the Strait of Hermoose physically?

1:19:35 What could easily happen between now and the midterms is President Trump Tries to open the straight of four moves. Or he allows Iran, by the way, to um he pulls back. He could actually pull back. Either way at this point, Steven, there's um uh there's a good chance he will uh lose in the midterms, meaning that the Republicans will lose one or both houses in Congress. And if that happens.

1:19:59 then uh whoever takes over control will be a democrat. They'll be hotly um anti-war. And there will be uh great efforts here to shut down the war, meaning shut down the money for the war. So it's always about the money. I need to get an understanding of the role. So this sort of link between the midterms, the money, and then the war. So the midterms are gonna change who's in Congress. And then the people in the Who controls it. And the people in Congress. They decide how much money the military get

1:20:31 They decide whether or not um they can pass laws, and this is what happened in nineteen seventy four, uh to prevent money from being spent on the war. And Trump can't overdo that. He can try to work around it. Uh there can be then Supreme Court cases and so forth and so on. Even if Democrats win the midterms and try to halt the war, Trump could bypass them because he holds massive constitutional advantages as commander in chief. He can simply veto any war powers resolution or funding restriction passed by Congress, which would then require an incredibly difficult two thirds supermajority in both chambers to override. Furthermore, mirroring the arguments of almost every president since Richard Nixon, Trump could evoke his Article two constitutional authority, claiming he has the inherent power to defend America's interests and troops without needing Legislative approval. Finally, even if Congress refuses to authorise new funding, the president can use emergency transfer authorities and creative accounting to shuffle existing Pentagon budget funds to keep the military operations running in the short term. You've just defined a constitutional crisis.

1:21:41 Congress will think it has the power. President Trump will think He has the power? That Is what is a constitutional crisis.

1:21:49 And that's why these midterms As my No, I'm just Don't mean to to say quite in this context, but as you know, I have a book coming out, Our Own Worst Enemies. The preface is called Uh The Most Dangerous Elections in Our Lifetimes. That is why this election coming up.

1:22:07 Will be the most dangerous election in our lifetime because the tensions now are growing on top of all that. They're not calming down those waters. The Iran war is making all these worse. And what you just read is the tension here that is that could well come. Because the Democrats are not gonna want it to there to be a forever war. And they were gonna f they're likely to fight really hard Once uh once they control the um Uh once they control one or both houses of Congress, president Trump. We'll want to fight really hard for his legacy and his um uh domestic agenda, including uh deportations, including ICE. So this will all come together. These will not be compartmentalized separate issues as we get into the midterms. That's why I'm saying

1:22:58 that we're coming the midterms, the midterms, the midterms. We're not heading to a future where it's just about what happens to military bases overseas. It's just about what happens to ships overseas and what's happening in or moose. These wines. The domestic uh political violence in the United States to call this the era of violent populism. And the growing

1:23:28 These two lines, the domestic uh crisis. And the international crisis are about to come together. And as I told my research team in the summer of twenty twenty four and talks I gave in Chicago, my nightmare, they asked me what my nightmare scenario was. This was in the fall of 2024. And I said my nightmare scenario is we have uh an international crisis at the same time as we have uh an election. And in the fall of two thousand twenty-four, we really didn't have that.

1:23:59 Now we do. And this is uh we're heading into the fall of two thousand twenty six. And this was always my nightmare scenario. Why? What does that mean? What are those two things colliding? Those two things colliding start to look like the nineteen sixties. And what happened in the nineteen sixties? The nineteen sixties, we had mass uh uh demonstrations, we had anti war violence, we had anti war terrorism with the weather underground.

1:24:23 We had multiple assassinations uh that occurred. Uh Martin Luther King, it was um Bobby Kennedy was assassinated. At a convention in Chicago, there was just mass uh demonstration. Mayor Daly in Chicago gave a shoot to kill order. I already mentioned to you the weather underground um uh string of bombs that they set off. So what we faced in the nineteen sixties was the collision of domestic uh political tension with an unpopular war. That's how you got the chaos of the nineteen sixties. I have a whole chapter in the book about the nineteen sixties and why it was so particularly intense. So do you think that Trump is likely to lose the midterms as things stand? Do you think the Republicans are likely to lose? If um

1:25:09 If we have a mass casualty attack. This will increase the odds of Trump uh and the Republicans winning in the midterms. And I think if uh we uh have a world economic crisis without the mass casualty attack, uh then I think it's likely that the Republicans will lose in the midterms. Okay. So I think we have the reason I can't give you a clean uh answer to this, which I know people want. They they would because we have multiple specific issues here that are now as part of the spiraling violence. And three three months isn't awful long. It's a long time because that mass casualty attack could happen in in October. And it doesn't have to be command directed by Iran. It can be it can occur. The mass casualty attack against Americans uh can occur

1:26:04 because it's an inspired attack. The Ira the the supreme leader is issuing statements that sound almost like Baghdadi, that was the leader of ISIS, issuing statements to encourage inspired attacks. That was the suicide uh attacks in Paris in November 2015 that killed over a hundred people. That was uh San Bernardino. So we we we saw leaders inspire attacks before, and the supreme leader statements are just uh are eerily close to the same words. Is the current US air campaign? sustainable. You hinted at this earlier on that actually the US might be running out of some of their their weapons. Um it's estimated that the daily cost of this this war for America is around two billion dollars a day.

1:26:57 And Iran's ability to continue these sort of asymmetric attacks with drones and other things doesn't come as at such a high cost and seems from the example you gave with the bowl earlier on to be more sustainable. So is there actually a risk here that The US will run out of Weapons. Um, I think that there's a risk we'll run out of interceptors to shoot down missiles, but even that's pretty low because what's really happening in our arsenal of weapons, Steven, is we are using a lot of intercept. Or especially, say, Patriot missile interceptors to shoot down incoming ballistic missiles, but we're drawing from stocks in Asia and in Europe. This is one of the reasons Zelinski can't get Patriot missiles. At least not very many of them. It's because we're now moving most of the stocks here for the Persian Gulf.

1:27:47 So I think that there's some chance we'll run out of the uh those interceptors, but even there I think it's slow. But literally in terms of the bombs, it's it's in a gross exaggeration to expect that uh we're gonna run out of bombs to drop from aircraft. And there's two reasons for that. In order to make a precision bomb, most people don't know what it takes these days. And it's true, we can spend a lot of money making a precision bomb, but we can literally take dumb bombs. 500 pound dumb bombs and strap a backpack on them that will uh connect with GPS and have little uh cords to the fins of the bombs in order to turn a dumb bomb into a precision bomb. Those fanny packs are about twenty thousand bucks. Maybe twenty five. So we can make them much more easily than people think.

1:28:40 So what do you think the United States Slash Trump's objective is at this particular point. Like what is the goal? The r the real goal.'Cause there's lots of press conferences I see where they say it's nuclear weapons, it's this, that, and the other. I think President Trump's goal between now and the midterms is very simple. A symbolic

1:28:59 Victory. And what would that look like? That would look like a victory that would hold for uh a week, maybe two weeks, and that would be uh an opportunity to show that President Trump fought back. I think that's how this would be framed by uh uh President Trump's supporters and those who support the war. And it would be uh I think President Trump would say, and this shows what we can do if you let us win. I think his words would be a little different. Do you think he's stuck? Yes. Do you think he knows he's stuck?

1:29:34 I've never met President Trump. Um, my research here, Steven, has always looked at the actual words by decision makers. What I can tell you is what his incentives look like. And the incentives that I've laid out have been quite predictive of his behavior. Do you want him to call you? Yes.

1:29:55 And if he calls you. What is the advice you would give him on what to do next? Uh what I would do is try to design a several year strategy. To build a better balance of power in the region. That we could over a period of time

1:30:11 uh stabilize the world. and stabilize the region. And I think that is the Big issue that's being missed right now. But if he says listen, Robert, what do I do in the next three months'cause I've got these midterms coming up. Then the answer is don't call me. I'm I want to help President Trump. But I want to help America

1:30:34 For real. Uh these are not necessarily at odds. But the bottom line here is that um everything I have to say to President Trump about the next three months we've just done on this podcast, Stephen. Um

1:30:49 But I am absolutely delighted. to talk about how to actually Build. A more secure future for America. and for the Gulf. And I just don't think that's that's happening. And I don't think the uh the pressure that this must lead to an electoral victory for President Trump

1:31:09 is likely to uh uh make the the the true security for America and the Gulf a more likely. In fact, it's gonna go the other way around. It will encourage the escalation trap. So that's why I'm st I am s I'm stuck by my own logic of the escalation trap uh here. It's literally Um we we have to move past The idea of the But

1:31:35 Uh the only acceptable option is an option the guarantees. Um political success. For an individual. Even if it means the president of the United States. What do you think Russia and China?

1:31:52 who are often positioned as adversaries of the United States. What do you think they're thinking right now? And what do they what do they want to happen? Uh you know, I guess China's being hurt by the oil situation. Russia's got their own situation going on with the Ukraine. What are they thinking? Uh I think China does not want there to be global instability. Uh, but at the same time, they don't want this to be uh a situation where Iran comes out smashed. I think that is um uh that's that's simply not in the cart. I also don't think China is going to insert itself in a very forceful way. I think the idea that Iran might come out and militarily support the United States here or militarily support with its own forces Iran is not likely to happen. So I think that what you are why don't they want Iran smashed China?

1:32:42 For present she Um he Explained quite a bit of this at the summit. He said to President Trump, you're a declining power. Are you going to uh fall into what he called the through Cidity's trap? Meaning are you gonna launch a preventive war against China?

1:33:00 In Asia. And that's what present she said. What about Russia? What Russia is seeing is an opportunity to squeeze Europe economically. Uh so I believe that what has been happening in the last few weeks here, the last month is that Ukraine has actually been gaining

1:33:22 Uh uh not just strength with drones, but in a specific area called Crimea. In uh which uh Russia took and Putin took in two thousand fourteen. There's been a mass exodus. out of Crimea in the last weeks. Ukraine is putting more and more pressure on the supply lines coming into Crimea and also coming into Ukraine from Russia. And what Putin, I think, is uh is is uh wants to have happen is that um he Will likely escalate more.

1:33:59 Put more pressure on Europe. At exactly the time in the fall when the world economic crisis is growing. Because of Iran. And that is going to squeeze Europe, make it hard for Europe to fulfill the commitment they just made to uh Zelensky of eighty billion more dollars. I guess my my last question then before I go to the diary is um if you were to predict how the next couple of months play out What would your prediction be? And this is a on a

1:34:30 On probability. Fifty one percent probability of outcomes. What happens next? I I think we're going to uh in the next few months cross the threshold with ground operations into either one of the islands or a part of the coast of Iran because the world economic crisis is going to grow. The price of gasoline in the United States is likely to grow, and President Trump is going to be even more desperate. to try to find a way to look make it at least appear as if he has a plan to open hormones.

1:35:07 It may not be real, it may only be symbolic, but I think Steven that the uh where we are heading is um Uh the more the crisis the world economic crisis increases. And if there's a mass casualty attack, the more that crisis increases.

1:35:27 The more President Trump is under pressure to demonstrate he has a way to open hormuz, even if it's far off, and he needs a down payment on that. He needs something to show tangibly. And I think that's where the pressure will come from for crossing into stage three. I think it's worth saying in these conversations as well that there are ninety plus million Iranians who currently live in Iran and who are caught in the midst of this craziness and chaos. And sometimes in these conversations we kind of don't really think about the fact that there's a nation that's just bigger than the un nation I come from, the United Kingdom, who are right in the heart of this. And so every time Trump says he's bombed more people over the weekends or he's firing bombs, I always think about the the real families that are caught right in in the midst of all of this that didn't choose this war, that are living in an environment where bombs are dropping on their heads. And I think for everybody all around the world that listen to this show, whether you're in the UK or the United States or Australia or Canada or wherever you are, the South South America, Asia, wherever, Africa. It's worth taking a second just to imagine what it would be like to know that the United States are

1:36:32 dropping lots of bombs on the nation in which you live and how that would feel psychologically, how that would feel for your children, how that would feel for for you yourself, how that would impact your day to day life. And also I guess the uncertainty of not knowing when it's gonna end, if it's gonna end. And also hearing this term escalation trap and thinking that, you know, ac this is actually going to escalate and troops are going to come into my country. And so There's a real human cost to this, which sometimes we leave out of these conversations. And I have students um uh and at the University of Chicago who um are Iranian. They have families in Iran. Uh, and they asked me questions about this all the time. And sadly what I have to tell them is that real hope

1:37:13 for the Iranian people is five or ten years away. And as this war escalates, it pushes closer to ten than five. We have a closing tradition on this podcast where the last guest leads a question for the next. The question left for you is If you could go back to a certain time. and see something occur.

1:37:32 Or ask someone something you've always wondered. About what slash who Would that person slash place be and why? I think the key person I would ask would be uh Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

1:37:49 He died before we dropped the atomic bombs. I would want to know. From him. When he was developing uh and supporting the atomic bombs. Did he imagine

1:38:04 The world that Well be created by the atomic bombs because in my lifetime War has been a Defining feature of my work.

1:38:15 Uh but uh the uh the prospects of of nuclear war. have always overhung quite a bit of our work. We never want to get to anything like that. But I'd like to know from the person. who had the most authority, power uh in order to make that future happen, who never even thought. Didn't even see it happen, but knew it was coming.

1:38:41 I'd like to know from him what did he think was truly going to come. because I think that this would be uh uh extremely useful to know whether or not our leaders truly, truly, how far out they can really see and understand how much their decisions today shape the world for decades to come. Robert, thank you. Um we're very excited for your book September twenty second. So do we have a pre order link yet? It's just up. Actually, literally it's just up. So yes.

1:39:13 I have to say, when we first sat down, you said a bunch of things up in terms of what would happen next, and I'm not sure I believed them all. Because I don't know anything about war. And they and you never really think about the psychology changes, both at home, but also where the bombs are dropping. And it does appear that you've been largely correct about what you what you said would happen, this escalation that happens across all wars that has happened also in Ukraine and Russia at the same time, but now we're seeing playout in Iran. So I have to give you your credit because you have been Unfortunately, you've been right, I should say. I would agree with the word unfortunately. So this is uh um part of me would like to be happy about this, but the truth is, uh and this is what I just was talking to my 97 year old mother in law about. is um uh I told her that you had invited me again, she's ninety seven years old, can't even get out of bed, Steven.

1:40:06 And I told her That um It was it was one of the the saddest things I had to agree to. And it's because of what it uh really means the reason you're having me here is because things are bad for our country and I want nothing more than for things to be better for our country.

1:40:22 Well Robert, thank you so much for coming back and um you know, if we do come back again and convene, I hope Next time it's on better times,'cause we're analysing how it all resulted in peace for everybody, especially the people that are living in Iran right now. Right, thank you. Thank you.

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