Ray Dalio: We’re Heading Into Very, Very Dark Times! America & The UK’s Decline Is Coming!

0:00 Pay attention. Pain plus reflection equals progress. And from that principle, my company became the largest hedge fund in the world. Managing how much 150 billion dollars. But I learned that history of things that never happened in my lifetime before were important things to understand in order to predict the future. And we can get into that if you want. So Ray Dalio is the legendary billionaire investor who decoded the cycles of human history to predict financial crashes, build the world's largest hedge fund, and now to warn us about what lies ahead. Are you optimistic about the future of the UK? No. What about the United States? No. Why? Okay. In order to bet on what's gonna happen on the global economy, I learned that there's five big forces that create a big cycle that's repeated through history, which lasts about eighty years. The first is the money debt.

0:51 Force that creates wealth and opportunities gaps, and it's connected to the second force. The internal conflict where you don't trust the system causing wars between the left and the right. And it's not easy answers like tax the rich. And we can get into that. But the third is geo political force. In other words, international conflict. Then there's acts of nature. And then number five is man's inventiveness, particularly of new technologies. Now the question is who wins the technology war? Because the winner of that determine how the new world order works. Is it something to be concerned about? No. The question is how you as an individual How do I as an individual handle it.

1:31 So there's building your financial strength, flexibility, importance of being open minded, how to get more out of the minute. Not how to work harder. А на реліур одієнс толермолис це ферство. Just give me thirty seconds of your time. Two things I wanted to say. The first thing is a huge thank you for listening and tuning into the show week after week. It means the world to all of us, and this really is a dream that we absolutely never had and couldn't have imagined getting to this place.

1:59 But secondly, it's a dream where we feel like we're only just getting started. And if you enjoy what we do here. Please join the twenty four percent of people that listen to this podcast regularly and follow us on this app. Here's a promise I'm gonna make to you. I'm gonna do everything in my power to make this show as good as I can now and into the future. We're gonna deliver the guests that you want me to speak to, and we're gonna continue to keep doing all of the things you love about this show. Thank you.

2:25 Uh Right. I I wanna describe to you who's listening right now. And I the question I have for you is what is the most important thing that this persona of person should be thinking about? at the highest level right now. So the the person that's listening is

2:45 Someone who is intent on improving their life. They're they're really interested in business, potentially starting their own business. They they care about Where they're investing. The their time and energy

2:57 And also where they're setting up their home. Based on In terms of geography. they are aspiring to accomplish some goal. They're probably between the age of eighteen and Fifty.

3:09 Predominantly. And they are very, very interested in understanding what's happening in a world that feels incredibly Scary. Fast paced,

3:19 And uncertain at the moment. This is a very difficult question. But if anyone I was gonna ask anyone, it would have to be you. Wha w what what's one of the first things they should be considering at this moment to safeguard their future, their family, their finances? I don't think it's a difficult question. I um I think it's it's very clear they have to understand how the life cycle works.

3:39 Okay. They have to understand it how it works. We were just talking before on the book and there was the Arc of the life cycle, right? And you have to understand that you're on an adventurous journey.

3:53 Okay. And you have a certain neighbor. You know, those qualities that may make you Have your preferences and so on. And then

4:03 You're going after the things That you like. And you're learning and it's gonna have the ups and downs and so on. And how you approach that. So you asked from the higher level if I'm looking down, you know, like that life cycle, that arc.

4:19 What's that journey like? How do you approach it? You know. What are your principles? How do you even learn how to approach it? That's why we're having these conversations, right? Yep. So that's clear. Yeah, what's your nature?

4:33 How's the journey? How do you find the path? That's suitable to your nature. And then you'll go down that path and you'll discover And you'll evolve.

4:45 What's that like? That's what they need to know. You said what's your nature? What do you mean by nature? creates their different nature, you know. We have our preferences, our inclinations. We think in a certain way.

5:00 You chose to be Entrepreneurial. Okay. You're living out your nature. Okay, this isn't for somebody else. You know, some people have a different nature.

5:11 Okay. They would like to have the stability of a job and clarity and so on. So when you have your nature, you want to know that and then find the path. That is going to be good for your nature. Then there's the particular tactical stuff. So if you would ask me, should I be in the UK or should I be in the US? Well, that depends on a lot of things, but that's a tactical question. So if I want to be an entrepreneur and I want to build a technology company

5:37 Do you think I should be in the UK or the US? I think you should be in the US. Why? The US has a culture of Um

5:46 Entrepreneurship, inventiveness. This a whole different culture, like in Europe. generally speaking, and in and and in the UK. There's an establishment culture, right? Um it here Um, you could be Twenty-five have a

6:01 Blue streak in your hair. and have the talent, but if you got the talent to pull it off. You can get the resources and you can be an entrepreneur. It's there's a culture of that. That means that it's happening more. That's why you even see the differences in the economies. Okay. Where is the inventiveness really happening? Okay, it's happening here. So I would say if you want to be an entrepreneur, this is an environment that's particularly conducive to being an entrepreneur.

6:30 So what is your honest perspective about the UK at the moment? The UK has a financial problem. Uh the government has a debt problem. It doesn't have enough money. for what it wants to do and what it can do. And so what you see is the non nom

6:46 problem, people moving, and so on and so forth. And throughout history When you have these sorts of things, then there's great clashes. And people. Okay.

6:57 And the UK has been in decline. Since the war. Even the development of the capital markets, can you raise capital there? All of these things are are much worse than they are in the United States.

7:12 And it leads to clashes, you said. O course, you know, there are five big forces. That create a big cycle. That lasts About

7:23 Eighty years, give or take. Fifty, let's say. And the five big forces are There's a money. That

7:31 economy force. Okay. That's their spending power. So what happens is when you give somebody credit they can spend. And then but the it also produces debt.

7:42 And debt has to be paid back. And so what happens is if there's not enough income. To pay back the debt. Then you have Um debt rising relative to income. It squeezes out spending. People don't want to hold the debt assets.

7:59 And so on. The UK is going through that and has gone through that, and it's connected to the second force. And we're all going through this in varying degrees. The second force is the internal political and social. force. In other words, like between the left and the right. With wealth gaps. And opportunities gaps. We have big wealth and opportunities gaps.

8:21 So when you have big wealth and opportunities gaps, there's conflict. A okay, conflict between the left and the right. And when you get to the situation where you don't believe the system is working for you and you don't trust the system, then there are wars there are internal conflicts um over over that and so on so the third force Із джеополітика форс.

8:46 In other words uh There's a cycle that usually goes from one big war to another big war. So the w last war ended in nineteen forty four. five, forty-four, and we began a new order in 1945. And the way that works is that the winners of the war determine how the World order works. They draw borders.

9:06 They say, here's how it's gonna work. And that's the new order. Okay. And that continues. until there's a rising power challenging an existing power and the existing world order, which typically is deteriorating at that time, and then you have international conflict, okay? These orders

9:25 There's a monetary order. They all break down. There's an In internal political order. they all break down and and there's a geopolitical order. They all have this conflict and they work together. The fourth force throughout history has been acts of nature.

9:41 Droughts, floods, and pandemics, for example, have killed more people than Wars. And acts of nature. Nature has a big effect. And then number five force. is man's inventiveness, particularly of new technologies.

9:56 Okay, because if you see that inventiveness. That has raised per capita incomes, GDP per capita, any measures of living standards over a period of time and and so on. But it is also related to the first four that I said. Those four Four forces interact. Now when we go back to your UK case. Okay. They have a financial problem. They and almost every country now.

10:22 is dealing with more of that internal political problem. For the same reasons. Wealth gaps opportunities gaps. What do we do? Who's got the power? I don't trust the system kinda thing. Okay, number three is we are certainly in an international Great.

10:40 Powers conflict, right? And it certainly affects Europe and the UK, as we're dealing with Not only the Ukraine situation, but the Russian situation. And what does that mean? And that relates to the money thing because okay, where's the money coming from to have defense or military expenditures and so on and so forth. So that matters, right? The geopolitical matters, climate certainly matters. And then of course technology and inventiveness. So everything can be looked through at through that lens.

11:11 And so what does this mean for The UK if All other countries are going through this as well, doesn't that just mean that all countries are gonna suffer equally. No, no, no. Because they're not all equal. Okay. Some are more in debt than others.

11:24 Okay. Some people are more willing to hold their debt n than others. Um some means they they have more resources, some are bigger. And more powerful, some are less powerful, they're different. Okay. They're all go in different conditions. Some countries have surpluses.

11:41 Some countries You know, or not in the middle of where there's having a war. Are you optimistic about the the Future of the UK. At the moment.

11:51 No. No. Because it has high debt, it has the social internal conflict, it ha it's affected by the geopolitical factors. And in terms of inventiveness, it doesn't have the culture that other countries have like the US. Is that culture.

12:10 and the capital markets to support that at a scale that it needs to be supported to play seriously in the game. And for anyone that doesn't know capital markets mean basically the investor markets isn't it's Well, I mean it gets you the money. In other words, you're a guy with a I'm you know, what happens is Um We have to enable people.

12:30 Okay. What what works is finding Great people, talented people. And identifying Those who you want to bet on.

12:41 And enabling them. And that works. That's the most important force, much more important than money. Okay. Because You can see.

12:50 Who's got the money and power and where did they come from? Where didn't the video come from? Where did where do they all come from? Okay. There are guys like you, entrepreneur in a sense. Who's been enabled. Okay, by you because you have the talent and people want to bet on you, and that's the capital market. So they give you money to help enable you because they want to bet on you and then good things happen. But are you are you optimistic about the United States at the moment?

13:16 The United States is very much a big picture. No, I think it's very much in this Issue. So if I go down my list It definitely has this uh debt money. economy. problem. We can get into that.

13:29 Okay, it definitely has the internal conflict. power in which there's a fight. between the left, you know, the hard left and the right. due to wealth and values gaps and people not believing that the system will work for them. And so democracy is at risk. Because they don't believe this they're not gonna follow the rules in the sense they don't believe the rules are gonna

13:53 Uh uh number three, it's of course The Leading one side in this great power conflict of the world. Right. In other words. Yes, between the United States and the one side, let's say, and China and the allies, uh their allies on the other side. I mean in the news you just saw the meetings of Chi Putin, uh Modi and that group over there walking down, you know, and okay. So now uh it should be pretty clear.

14:21 How the sides are lining up. Okay. You it's always better to be in a place that's not in one of those wars. Like Stay out of war.

14:30 Um And of course climate has an effect. And of course, then we have technology. The United States and China are in the big technology competitions. The others are really not in the game. They don't have the money, the this innovation and talent, in a sense, to play at that scale. And so we have a great You know.

14:51 Technology War. Which can be used to create great advances. But at the same time could be used for great conflicts. And so now the question is gonna be who wins the technology war because the winner of the technology war is gonna Win all wars.

15:08 Okay. And in other words, to win the economic war. They'll win the geopolitical war because technology and I'll I'm not saying anything that hasn't repeated through history. Give me that historical context if you can, just for f The technology, for example, nuclear.

15:27 Yeah. Nuclear One World War Two. And and does this cycle Oh no, it goes back to the

15:36 That book. Okay. Um in order to understand these things, because I have to bet on what's gonna happen. I'm a global macro investor. I studied the last five hundred years of history.

15:48 And and it happens over and over again in all cases. Oh. I could take the British Empire, I could take you through all the empires, but the Dutch Empire before that and all this and It it it it happens uh all the time. I watched your I watched your videos about this and it's truly fascinating how predictable this stuff is and

16:08 the work that you've done to uncover this trend throughout history. I mean it's almost for me it was almost irrefutable watching the evidence in in I think it's like a forty minute video on YouTube where you show how this is playing out through empires. And it begs the question, you know,'cause When you live in the United States, when you're When you're in the present time, you almost never assume that the empire you're in could fall. You just don't you don't see how it can happen. We're so strong, we're so great, you know, we're so

16:31 But Doing AI over here, have money over here, everything's good, the sun's shining. It's inconceivable. People always think that the future would be a slightly modified version of the present. And it's not.

16:45 Okay. Watch. over decades, but it's like watching a Person grow. Yeah.

16:51 Okay. Yeah. You know, you watch your Yeah, no, you watch a person and your age, any age and that's what you see. Yeah. Okay.

16:59 And you don't see the life arc. Yeah. Okay, but the life arc is in irrefutable. But the U do do you think it's conceivable that in the next fifty to a hundred years the US could no longer be the dominant power globally? Yeah.

17:16 Yeah, more than conceivable. More than conceivable. What do what does what do you mean by more than conceivable? I mean that These evolutions always take place.

17:27 And they take place in a certain way. And that um If you look at the probabilities, um and the paths and the symptoms.

17:41 There's a challenge the United States is facing. a number of those challenges. And we're at a moment where Um It's a question.

17:54 of whether the system and The people K can get control. of the situations and deal with it. Strongly.

18:09 And well. In a way where they are not Fighting to the point of damaging each other and damaging

18:22 the prospects for the future. But I mean the United States is very innovative. Yeah, but uh you you can't make generalizations about the United States, and you can't make generalizations, by the way, about the markets either. Um What you see is

18:40 Um Oan percent, a small percent, one percent of the population. If you're looking at the breakdown of incomes and also you're looking at the innovation, the stock markets, which stocks are doing well, who owns those companies and all of that. about three million people in a country of uh three hundred and thirty million people. are really

19:04 Unbelievably doing great. And you could pick the neighborhoods they're in and what they're doing. And then there's the top ten percent, let's say, which is the people around them, and they're really, really doing great. in that world. At the same time, the bottom sixty percent. Sixty percent of Americans have below a sixth grade reading level.

19:27 Well. And that population. In terms of um The basics.

19:36 Being productive. You have to be productive. And be prosperous, so y what what you need to have a success successful society is to have broad base productivity and prosperity.

19:53 Okay. And that's a problem. Okay, so Which America are you looking at? And are you watching the war that's happening between these? It's a little bit complicated for me as a as a bit of an outsider because I see

20:08 Trump. saying he represents Those people. But obviously Trump is a from the billionaire class himself. So

20:17 I mean is he Is he a saviour for inequality? Is he Correcting it. The debt problem I think he sees the internal conflict disorder. Problem.

20:33 And I think he represents Uh the red let's call it the red states. I mean look at a map. And there's red and blue. And you see where they are, okay, and he represents that and they're united behind him in terms of doing some things.

20:49 Okay, so he represents let's call it the red side, which isn't uh located where the map s shows red. And then there are the blue. And and He's um he views himself as somebody who needs to take charge. And to do certain things. Others in that population

21:09 would say those who let's say are not getting are having the food stamp Program cut off. or having other programs cut off that they're dependent on. would say, uh uh second, that's not representing me. And so we have gone, that population has gone.

21:28 to significant number Behind Yeah. That are Devotees.

21:36 They're all in. Okay. At the same time as we have the other side. which will have their devotees if you know we're in New York City.

21:48 Okay, and the up to upcoming mayoral. uh election will be an example. of the two sides, okay? And they will try to use the system, but there's a question. Will the system

22:02 Have enough support. To work. Okay, but that's what we have. Just just to close off on this point of the UK in particular, if if you were to try and fix it What would you be aiming at? I say this because we do have a a millionaire exodus that's widely reported in the UK, where I think this year we're set to lose sixteen thousand, roughly sixteen thousand millionaires.

22:22 Um when you look at the big big countries like China, America, the UAE The UK. We're losing more millionaires than anybody else. And I was wondering i if you think it's fixable and if you were in charge of the UK. What you might Aim at first. Mm-hmm.

22:36 It's different, you know. First of all, If you go back to the basic problem. Which is there's too much debt. There are deficits. There's differences in

22:52 education and opportunity levels And so on. The most important thing That you can have І за стронг мидл.

23:05 Political middle. Political middle. To be analytically strong. And also strong enough. to get the people to do

23:15 what needs to be done even if they don't want to do it. To get to be productive. Now that's an easy thing to say. Yeah. It's not an easy thing to do.

23:26 But you do need That strong middle. And you do need to convey to people That you need to have the strong middle to change productivity.

23:38 And you know, and are you in it? Are are you in it? Are you Patriotic and in it and You know. But you look at history

23:47 How did the United States come to be the United States? People will go to the places That are better. than them than stay in the places that worse for them. This is

24:00 Fundamental, right? Incentives. Okay. So You have to make the place. Better. Okay.

24:08 Now I would say also you can take pockets And they go into the pocket and let it spread out. But you also have to have this equal education, or you know, you've gotta strive for equal opportunity. But anyway, it's a difficult question that I'm afraid. Uh I'm Incapable of

24:27 Um Solving. It was unnerving to hear the tone of your voice drop when I asked it. You seemed slightly um As if you you've kind of given up on the UK a little bit. Your facial reaction. No, I'm I'm just a I'm just a

24:44 I'm a practical guy. I'm a realistic guy. I made my money I'm in the business. And it's my nature.

24:54 To try to be realistic. And to bet on how things will transpire. And that's not healthy. The situation in the UK is not healthy. And the situation in the United States is very risky in many ways. It's what we're describing. So you know, and then if you look

25:13 Where are people going? Then then you see the places. that have the qualities we're talking about. They're civil. They're creative.

25:25 The people aren't at war with each other. W what happens next? In history. Well, usually there's a a big fight for control. Political

25:37 Revolutions and things like that. The system breaks down. Because they don't trust the system. So Will the legal system resolve that? Will the parliamentary system resolve that?

25:56 Th these disputes Satisfactorily. to the satisfaction of those people and the other people. Who have different points of view. And the the sides won't believe it.

26:09 And it this goes back This goes back to Rome, it goes back to Caesar, you know. The Senate. And you know, this goes back Through history.

26:22 All the time. Right. And and then the thirties. Four major democracies. chose to be autocracies, okay. That happened in Italy, Germany, Spain, and Japan.

26:35 What's autocracy for anyone that doesn't know the words. A dictatorship. Essentially. Uh a limited number of people at the top.

26:46 who are autocratic. Which means that they are directing things. Rather than A democracy in which um there's representatives of all different points of view

27:01 that get together and follow rules to make decisions. So the UK could become an autocracy. As could the US, I guess. Um, you're gonna see a lot of pressure.

27:16 For that strong leader who will Get control of things and make it work well. And we'll rep and you're likely to see Two different views. As to which side, you know, the red and the blue.

27:29 Sides. So to speak. You're likely to see that type of Clash. You said the US is playing a risky game itself.

27:38 Uh is that from a debt perspective or from these things. From the debt. From the internal conflict. From the Changing world order.

27:47 The Giopolitical world conflict. You know, I don't know, we're playing with nuclear weapons and you know in wars in different places. And then of course climate and then

28:01 the technology war, how we're doing that. Yeah. I saw that image the other day of Putin and um President Xi in China. Together. Walking together. If China does become the dominant force in the world.

28:13 The dominant power. Does is that a smooth transition? First of all, I don't think Either side is gonna be the clearly dominant power. for for a very long time.

28:25 Um And the The quickest way. have it as some kind of a war, and that's a dangerous thing. And uh but maybe

28:35 It evolves. Hopefully. the way the Soviet Union evolved that the the worry of mutually assured destruction. Keeps everybody Not having.

28:47 that kind of war and then w then then the systems, one system or another system wins. But that's an evolutionary process and You know, I can't say in a uh um Do you think much about time frames and'cause I when I was watching When I was going through the Changing World Order.

29:06 there seems to be somewhat consistent or predictable time frames when these th these transitions happen. Do you think about where we are? Well, they're long term big cycles. Yeah. It's it's like a life cycle. On average they are about a life cycle, about eighty years. But it's not predetermined, just like your life cycle is not predetermined.

29:26 Like if you take care of yourself. and you, you know, I don't know, don't smoke, eat well, exercise, and so on so forth, then you will probably have a longer life cycle than if you don't take care of yourself. And it's um kind of like that, you know, and so you see them in history. They evolved, but you can see the symptoms. Okay, you can see the actions and the symptoms.

29:52 Which like taking a physical. uh then gives you a sense of where they are in their life cycles. We're eighty years from World War Two. Eighty years from World War Two, yeah. And you're seeing the symptoms.

30:05 Yeah. Symptoms are clear. They're all in that book. You can see the charts and all the systems. Is it something to be worried about or concerned about? If you're in the United States. No shit. Yes.

30:19 And then the question is how you as an individual handle it. How do I as an individual handle it? Well first of all I think I think you have to be aware of the situation and the risks. For me and my family though, in terms of risks.

30:37 And how I should um counteract those risks. Is it a case of me saving for a rainy day? Yeah. Um There's this there's a saying in Hong Kong Um, a Chinese saying which is a smart rabbit has three holes. And what that means is

30:55 You can see Is it the UK or the US? And uh and I can then move to the better place and get out of the place that's a d terrible place. So can I successfully be an immigrant or whatever and change my location throughout history, that's been important. So

31:14 The ability Two. Going to good places. And away from bad places. Um so that's part of it.

31:22 Um secondly building your financial Strength. is important, which has to do with How you

31:32 earn, spend and save. That will determine The amount And then what you do with that amount Is invest And so how you invest

31:44 uh is also important. So If you have your financial ability And you Can make the move.

31:53 And then you have knowledge. You know, about what's happening. So that you can change things. Those are the things you need. So on that first point about a smart rabbit having three holes.

32:07 Is it therefore? A better decision at this point in time to not To not buy a house? Because a lot of people end up buying a house and anchors them to to a place. And it means that they h then have to pay into a mortgage. So a lot of a lot of the financial advice most of us have growing up is when you get enough money to

32:24 buy a house, move in, pay that mortgage for twenty five years. But if I'm in a new economy in a new world and flexibility and the ability to get up and go and move is uh there's there's Yeah. Value to that. The ability to move capital matters. And if you look at history

32:40 This has been an important consideration. Yes. So it matters. So if you're nailing yourself down and that's your primary Capital. And it's nailed down there, and then that's Does limit your flexibility. And on the point of earning, spending and saving.

32:56 Wonder what you you're a You're a a father, aren't you? Yeah. What what advice are you giving to your children about earning money in the in the current world.

33:06 Wh where they should set up their shop, the skills that are most valuable to acquire, the technologies, the we talked about the US being a place to One of the better places to build your career. For all the reasons you described. Well that's You know, that's kind of like the particular that you asked me for that's below

33:23 The level. of the higher level. Okay. The higher level is I have a principle. Make your work and your passion the same thing and don't forget about the money part. Okay. If you make your work

33:39 and your passion the same thing so that you're really enjoying your work. you'll have an enjoyable, satisfactory life and you'll probably be better at Your career. That um as a result probably advance and so on to have a happier life. And you will have a more probably a more successful life.

33:59 But it is true that the careers that you choose will have financial implications. And if you say, I want to be a poet or something along those lines, you better consider the financial implications of that. That doesn't mean that you have to go make a ton of money,'cause I think that that's I think a lot of people fall into that trap. That they think The money.

34:23 is um like vast amounts of money is vast amounts of success, and that's not true. In other words, is your work and your passion the same thing? So I think that what brings people happiness is meaningful work and meaningful relationships. Okay. If you have meaningful work. You know, that you're into and you're well you know, we Your passion and your work's the same thing.

34:46 And you have Meaningful relationships. Whether through that work or beyond. You're gonna have probably a great life. Okay. And so you have to keep that in mind. And it doesn't have much correlation past a certain level of money.

35:01 Uh doesn't have much correlation. with um that well being. With the amount of money you have. And the if you see studies across societies and you'll see that past that certain basic level, there's no correlation between the amount of money they have and how much happiness they have.

35:18 Or well being. Okay, that the highest level of qu correlation across societies and studies. is community.

35:28 Do you have a sense of community? Do you have those around you who are your community? You'll live longer that way, you'll have a more joyous life, and it'll be a better outcome. But anyway, so thinking about those things I think is important. Okay. Based on your life cycle in this book.

35:45 Principles, your guided journey, create your own principles to get the work and life you want. Do you think you have to play different games in different seasons of your life cycle as it relates to generating wealth? And what what I'm talking about here is really like risk profile. Um or what I should be optimizing for. Should I be op should I be trying to hang around with Ray Dalio or should I be Focusing on The job that pays me the most.

36:09 First of all, yeah the answer is yes. And I the second question you asked. The answer is um That you should be around.

36:20 The The people. who are the best people to teach you to operate by them the mentors and the learnings and so and you should be around the best people. And when I say best people, I mean people Of good character.

36:35 And good capabilities. Okay. And uh so you should be around the best. Not the job that pays you the most. And I could explain why that is.

36:45 But and yes, in terms of that arc. You will play it differently at different parts of your life cycle. So in the early part of your life cycle What you're going to do is I mean the more

36:59 Learning and experiencing is the most important thing that you can do in the learning in the early part of your life cycle. It's like you're gonna make your choices. What direction am I gonna be in, and so on and so forth. So learn. Okay. That that's that's most important. And then what you're at the end of your life cycle.

37:18 you're pretty much relieved from all of that. You're not gonna be Working to earn. Okay. You're gonna be free of

37:27 All of that. You're gonna ha um and you have freedom of choices. And so on. And you're gonna be thinking about transitioning. How do I transition well being or how do I transition my wealth or how do I transition And so on.

37:41 You know. That's that's where you are. Still learning is a joy. But at the same time, in terms of trying to accomplish It's not the same at your late part of your life cycle as it is in your early l part of your life cycle. So I'm gonna ask about your early life cycle. And what the most

37:59 important strategic or wealth generating decisions you made. That you would encourage everybody to consider if their nature is aligned to yours. Okay. My nature was I hated school. I didn't like

38:13 the whole thing of Remembering this and remembering this and then Give it back to me. And there were these uh, you know. history like

38:23 There's William the Conqueror in ten sixty six and what did he do? And you know, like all all of that was what education Representing. And when I was um Twelve, a kid. I earn money with odd jobs like

38:38 Um I had a paper route and Um I mowed lawns and I caddied and I took my cadding money. And when I was twelve I got Everybody was talking about the stock market, so I put some money in the stock market. I didn't know what I was doing, of course.

38:55 But I b um I picked um the stock. It was the only stock I ever heard of. That was selling for less than five dollars a share. And my reasoning was I could buy more shares, so if it went up I could make more money.

39:10 Okay, that was a stupid criteria. But It was a company that was about to go bankrupt. And another company acquired it.

39:20 And it tripled in price. And I said, I like this game. So I got I got hooked on the game. I'm still hooked on the game.

39:31 Right. So I liked it. Okay, that that affected me. So I barely got into uh CW post college. I mean then I went to Uh Harvard Business School.

39:43 And that opened my eyes to the world. in in many ways because of who were there and what it was like and all that, you know, the best and the brightest kind of thing. But I always still Traded markets.

39:56 'Cause I always played the game. I mean I can tell you stories. You want the couple of quick stories? A hundred percent. Okay. So I'm clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange between graduating from college Uh in the summer.

40:10 between graduating from college and going to uh Harvard Business School. And that is nineteen sev the summit of nineteen seventy one. Mm-hmm. And

40:21 On august fifteenth, nineteen seventy one. Richard Nixon gets on the television. And says That

40:34 You know the promise that that you're going to be able to take your paper money and go get gold. You can't do that. And we're not we're gonna cut off that off. He didn't say it in exactly those words, but Money.

40:47 Then was gold. Um What we think of is Paper money, fiat money.

40:53 was claims on the gold. So I walked on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange that summer. And I thought the market was gonna go down a lot and the market went up a lot. And I didn't understand why,'cause I never went through a devaluation before and I studied history. And I found that

41:11 In March of 1933, Roosevelt got on the radio and made the exact same announcement that you're not going to get your gold and they're going to print the money. And when you print a lot of money, you have that. Okay. So I learned That history Of things that never happened in my lifetime before were important things to understand. Okay.

41:33 I went back. Then to Harvard Business School two uh for two years. And and two years later as a result of all the print of money. And the oil shock.

41:45 Because Of all of that. Uh we had the I nineteen seventy three oil shock. And now Because of my background.

41:54 I'm head h hired to be director of commodities. At a Wall Street brokerage firm. Okay. Mm-hmm. Which

42:03 And then All sorts of things happen. um turbulence and so on and so forth. That firm went broke. I went to another firm. And I was

42:13 Uh Rowdy. I wasn't your Typical good employee, you know, follow everything and so So I get fired.

42:23 And that was in uh nineteen seventy five. And then I but Uh clients all like me. And for things. And so they would pay me. for advice and I continued to trade the markets and that's when I formed Bridgewater.

42:39 Okay. That was nineteen seventy five. I just passed along Bridgewater fifty years later. Yeah. Okay. So

42:48 There's a journey there. That has Failures and successes. And learnings. You know, I have a principle.

42:56 Pain plus reflection. Equals progress. Mm-hmm. Okay? Your best learnings come from the pain. It's a message. Pay attention. Learn how reality works and how to deal with it differently so you have principles for real dealing with reality better.

43:14 А лер та прос, і фром да процес My company Bridgewater became the largest hedge fund in the world. Um, extremely successful. Managing how much it

43:26 A hundred and fifty billion dollars. Fifteen hundred people, one hundred and fifty billion dollars. And that's made you a very wealthy man. And made me a very wealthy man, which, by the way, Was not my intention.

43:37 Okay. I just wanted to play the game. And to have meaningful work and meaningful relationships. That was paramount. But it happened to be the game I played. If you're good at the game, you make a lot of money. And now I'm at a stage in my life Well um

43:52 I wanna pass things along. I need to pass things along, right? So hence The books, hence. Our conversation and here we are. That's the life arc.

44:02 But I learned a lot. And so that's the journey. I think B2B marketers keep making this mistake. They're chasing volume instead of quality. And when you try to be seen by more people instead of the right people, all you're doing is making noise, but that noise rarely shifts the needle. And it's often quite expensive. And I know, as there was a time in my career where I kept making this mistake, that many of you will be making it too. Eventually, I started posting ads on our show sponsors platform, LinkedIn, and that's when things started to change.

44:34 I put that change down to a few critical things. One of them being that LinkedIn was then and still is today the platform where decision makers go to, not only to think and learn, but also to buy. And when you market your business there, you're putting it right in front of people who actually have the power to say yes. And you can target them by job title, industry, and company size. It's simply a sharper way to spend your marketing budget. And if you haven't tried it, How about this? Give LinkedIn ads a try and I'm going to give you a hundred dollar ad credit to get you started. If you visit linkedin.com slash diary, you can claim that right now. That's linkedin.com slash diary.

45:11 Just for context, people don't like talking about money and I understand it, but you're a prolific philanthropist. Also, Google says that your net worth is in the tens of billions of dollars. And I'm sure there's some people that have clicked in this conversation and aren't f aware of the scale of wealth you built up and the scale of bridgewater capital and how Prolific and famous it is. In the investing world. In that fifty year life arc, one of the things you mentioned is pain. All of us will encounter pain.

45:36 And you said Pain plus Reflection. Reflection equals progress. How have you learned to deal with pain? You've had a lot of pain in all facets of life because you've lived the life arc, um, and you continue to. How what's the best principle for dealing with pain? First of all, um

45:54 To calm yourself down. And to get centered, meditation has had a big if beneficial effect on my life. We can get into meditation in a minute of how it has. But the ability to, you know, in a sense Calm yourself down.

46:12 Um When the time is right. To reflect on What's happened. both to understand how reality works.

46:22 You know, you want to be a hyper realist. I understand how reality works, therefore I need to do this under this set of circumstances. Which means developing principles. And so what I did When I would do that at any time, but whenever I would think what what should I do?

46:40 Whether painful or not. I would pause, reflect. on you know, what should I do if that happened again. And that's how I would write down my principles. And what I did was I wrote down

46:55 A lot of principles. A lot of principles. If this happens, that happens, and whatever. And then so I wrote these principles down. And then I found that in investing Um if I can computerized Those

47:11 Decision rules. I could back test them, see how they would have worked, and so on. So I built systems, decision making systems. Um computer would make decisions. So it was AI. before LLMs, but it was AI.

47:27 to have decision making criteria. So it would be like I I would make A computer chess game. That would play. While I was playing my Mental chess game.

47:40 What moves we would make. And it's completely automated and so on. But I'm what I'm trying to say is that reflecting On how does reality really work? And what do I do when this happens? to that happens is the development of principles.

47:58 And that has been invaluable. And it also makes me see things differently. Because a lot of people um And if I didn't do this, I would be Seeing almost as

48:10 Uh A blizzard of things coming at me. Instead I see everything as another one of those. So лат say for example

48:23 It it's a species. So it's like seeing, okay, that's What kind of species is it? And how do I deal with that speci? So it's one of those. Rather than just a lot of things coming at me.

48:35 Pattern recognition. Mm. Yeah, but uh but let's say if you think of us uh it's a duck. Okay, okay. Oh okay, it's a duck.

48:43 How do I deal with the duck? Or it's a lion. Okay, how do I deal with a lion? Okay, rather than just a lot of things coming at it. So this principle thinking And seeing it that way.

48:56 had a big effect. On the quality of my decision making and and that helped. Two questions I had there is to become a principal thinker. I need to do more reflection, right?

49:08 And then the other thing. How does How does the machine how does How does life how do these things What.

49:17 So that's what I mean. Okay. And to write that down. Sometimes what I would do is I'd uh dictate them into my iPhone. Okay. Okay.

49:30 I'd say okay, ah. This is how when you're making a decision, why did you make that decision? So not just make a decision, but think about the criteria you're using to make the decision. Also my emotions, my trauma, my insecurities, my anxiety. Is that helpful? Is that harmful?

49:54 And what do I do about that? Like For example When w what you're referring to is Yes. Um that the motions and the things and all of those

50:04 Um We uh you have to understand that the basically the brain's got two parts to it, right? It has the logical part of your brain reasonable, tries to reason things through.

50:18 And that which is Conscious. And then it has the subconscious mind. Which is the subliminal That is really driving you.

50:28 And so when you can Reflect. Okay. How my emotions Entering into it.

50:36 What do I, you know, and so on. And you can think and you can align that. That's very powerful. And meditation, by the way, naturally does that because what you do when you meditate I maybe a time's come I should explain meditation. Okay how it works. Um What you do is

50:54 It's a process by which You sit quietly. And you repeat in your mind what is called a mantra. which is a sound that it's a word that has no meaning. Let me say the most classic example of that would be ohm.

51:10 Okay. So you quietly there and you go With your breath you go and you know, um Oh like that. But you need to be taught. But anyway I I Um when you're doing that. Uh because you

51:26 Om is in your mind or your mantra's in your mind. You're not able to have other thoughts. You'll see yourself wavering between doing that and staying on the mantra and then having thoughts. Um but w and then you go back to your mantra.

51:44 When you are uh in the mantra a a lot, then it disappears. The sound disappears and you go into your subconscious mind. That's what they call transcending. Transcendental meditation is the type of meditation I do.

51:58 And so you go there and you're not in a conscious state and you're not in a subconscious. Unconscious state. You're in a conscious state. So it's Subconscious state. It's not S unconscious is your sleeping. Conscious is that you're awake, like we are.

52:14 You're in this. So it's a different state. Like if you hear the noise, you would hear that noise. It would be big. And not when you're sleeping. But when you're in your subconscious state. Then it's relaxing.

52:27 uh it's helpful and this process helps to Um Bring Yours.

52:33 Conscious state. and your uncon subconscious state into alignment. In other words, you recognize both. And it calms you down.

52:44 It's it's like um the ninja in the ninja movies, you know, they're fighting But they it seems in slow motion, the camera shows them in slow motion and they're doing whatever they're doing along that. It kind of m makes you in that kind of state of mind. so that you're dealing with what's coming at you in that way.

53:03 And so what you referred to is this um these things That happened. And how you deal with those is really important to the quality of your decision making. How influential was transcendental meditation in your success? Oh, enormously successful. Enormously significant.

53:20 Ver very, very significant. In other words That way of singing. Seeing things. And how often it's a way, there's you know, there's Uh I I would

53:30 See there's a serenity prayer. The Serenity Prayer. Is God give me the serenity to accept that which I can't control. And give me the power.

53:44 to control that which I can. And the wisdom to tell the difference. Okay. And so to how you approach these things. We're talking about reflection. You asked me reflection.

53:57 Okay. If you can reflect. In that quality way. Then You deal with anything. And I've

54:05 I've dealt with uh the worst possible thing. Um I lost a son. Okay. And I would have rather died.

54:13 I would have rather lost everything to lose my son. So it's the worst possible thing. And and then to see what it did. you know, the damage and the harm and feel from family. Terrible. Okay. Then To go through that.

54:26 With meditation, with reflection. And so on. uh was invaluable. And people have their own Challenges. But to be able to do it that way.

54:38 I I I really urge your audience, I urge you to uh to learn that. That's very helpful. H how did that Tragedy f change your your perspective and your

54:49 Your principles in any way. On life, on on happiness, on success, on all these things that you've written about. Well it's uh again I You know, I go above it. And

55:00 Um you reflect on the life arc. And I realize at that higher level That that's What the life arc is like.

55:13 Yeah, y you also. And in all my books there's this Or um Marking. This arcing here's the bigger version of it.

55:23 Uh yeah, there's this arcing. Okay. I don't know if your camera sees that. Okay, whatever it is. And that's what life And evolution is like. To me.

55:33 Meaning you make advances. You will have setbacks. Okay. If you reflect well. And you learn

55:44 how reality works and how you will deal with it. You will Get past that. And go on. And that's just what it is. That's just the way life is.

55:57 And if you do that well. Then that's Your best possible life. A are you religious? Are you a religious person? I'm not religious. But I'm spiritual.

56:07 Okay. The Dalai Lama who I had the pleasure of meeting. Told me uh and I I agree with Um that religions are typically Um a

56:18 Nick's Between Superstitions And spirituality. There's half of it

56:25 Is that Element. That nobody knows, but there is The way people should deal with each other. There is karma.

56:36 Okay, all religions. There's the part of them. That says Do unto others as you would have them do unto you. Or what goes around comes around.

56:49 And then you get to the particulars, okay? And it is true. that if we work well together That Even little things I can do to help you can make a big difference in your life. And little things that you can do to help me make a d big difference in my our lives.

57:10 And so it's practical. And it is also joyous. Okay, that creates a relationship. And we talked earlier about how that meaningful relationship is like the source of great happiness. But when you have a community

57:25 And you do that. You have a better society. And Almost all religions will tell you that. There'll be elements of those. And when I believe in spirituality, what I also mean is

57:37 Uh we're all part of this greater whole. Okay. We're all part of the Greater Hall. And if you could see yourself as part of the greater whole. And love the greater whole.

57:51 Uh and whatever. That is spirituality. Really. Okay. And so I will go through my life arc. Okay, and I will die.

58:02 And I'm comfortable with that. Okay. In that okay, it's all Hard

58:09 of the greater whole a uh you know, night nature and whatever it is. That's true. I can't tell you about other things. But I do believe in the things I just told you. When it comes to living a a successful life, you've we've talked about having dreams and understanding your nature and aspiring for things and then understanding reality, which transcendental meditation is a great um mechanism and vehicle to do. Um and in your in your book about a successful life you talk about plus determination.

58:38 Plus determination. Hard work. If I want to be a successful Man or woman. How important do you think hard work is?

58:50 Well, gives you power, it's very important, right? Some people some people, you know. I'm not saying they want to choose it, but the iron the irony of things is There are first order consequences and there are second order consequences. This is like a rule of life, okay? And most of the time the first order consequences

59:11 Whether it Likable or not. Has The opposite second quarter. second order consequences. What I mean by that is

59:21 Like eating. Or exercising. Okay. Eat the food you like. Second order consequence is probably not gonna be good.

59:32 Um You know, I don't wanna Exercise. Um This second order consequences won't be this good.

59:39 Okay. Working hard. Which gives you strength. Where does strength come from? I mean Yeah. Strength comes from working hard.

59:49 So working hard. Well we'll give you Power. Power. Will make things easier.

59:57 And make things better. That's just the way it is. And being open minded while you do it. Yeah, open minded. Yeah.

1:00:05 I I say uh the importance of being open minded and assertive at the same time. Um I I I watch. People becoming so

1:00:19 Tied to their own opinions. Like This is the greatest tragedy of mankind. The greatest transgen of mankind'cause it so easily can be fixed. Yeah.

1:00:33 Holding a strong opinion. That is wrong. That you Could have made right. Better.

1:00:44 If you were open to learning more, if you were said, I want to be stress tested, I want my thinking to be stress tested, I want to make sure that I'm making the better decision. And so I'll be challenged. But a lot of people view that challenging like a fight. It's not a fight. If somebody holds a different opinion It should prompt a curiosity.

1:01:08 You know, I don't know. Am I wrong or is they wrong? It's a fifty percent chance. I don't know. Maybe I'm wrong. So it should prompt curiosity. And in exchange. To try to make sure that you're seeing the whole picture and so on.

1:01:22 But subliminal instincts are I'm gonna stick with it and I'm gonna have a fight. That's a problem. Because there's too much on the line for so many people to to It's subliminal. It's it's it just goes back to the mind thinking. that the intellectual challenge is a fight.

1:01:42 And it's egotistical. You know. Ego. I must be right. As an as an investor and entrepreneur, that's obviously

1:01:49 Particularly important because You're constantly dealing with new information and feedback which you need to That was one of the two things that changed my Um My my d my whole direction and made me successful. I can explain it if you want. Please.

1:02:07 Nineteen. Seventy nine and eighty. I had calculated that American had lent more money to foreign countries that they were going to be able to pay back and that we were going to have a debt crisis. Very controversial point of view.

1:02:25 In August of Nineteen eighty two. Mexico defaulted on its debts. And over the next decade many other countries did and it caused bank Problems. However

1:02:38 At that time I thought things were gonna get bad, and that was the exact bottom in the stock market, august nineteenth, Eighty two. So I couldn't have been more wrong. I Lost money for me, I lost money for the clients, I lost money. I was so broke.

1:02:56 That I had to borrow four thousand dollars from my dad. to help to pay for family bills because I was faced with the choice, what am I gonna do? And and do I Do I go back to More common. Wall Street get up.

1:03:09 Uh uh tie, get on the train and go back that which is again not m in my nature, or whatever. And and two things changed me. Okay, reflection. First of all Um I learned what we were just talking about.

1:03:26 I learned humility. I fear of being wrong. and open mindedness. So I wanted the smartest people who could I could find to stress test my opinions. 'Cause I'm always realised I could be wrong.

1:03:41 And then I learned how to diversify my bets. so that I could dramatically reduce my risk without reducing my returns. Okay. That was the bottom. Okay, from that point All the way over.

1:03:56 That following those principles took me to the biggest hedge fund in the world, the most successful, and so on,'cause I applied it to the markets, applied it to what we did, and so on. So that No shit.

1:04:08 of reflection. And then how do you deal with what reality is like? And then, you know, okay. They learn learn radical open mindedness. In other words, like there's a principle in the book, you have to take in before you put out. Or that um Decision making is a two step process.

1:04:28 First take in. Then decide. Okay. So yes, open mindedness. You don't doesn't m in any way minimize your ability to decide.

1:04:38 So you still have the freedom to decide, but It's crazy not to be open minded. You recognize that the biggest threat to good decision making is harmful emotions, and that two step process is first learn. And then make the decision, which is funny'cause it sounds simple. But when you said it, I think about all the worst decisions I've ever made in business and I missed step one.

1:04:57 I forgot to I forgot to take a minute and do the evidence gathering. Or the like information gathering process. Yeah, just smart people care about your decision. Say, stress test me. Why don't we do that? That ego

1:05:13 And also instinct that that's a fight. Is there any advice you would give me on becoming a better decision maker? So I have a fund, I have many businesses. Is there any sort of practical Simple. foundations of becoming a better decision maker that we haven't talked about. Get smart people to interrogate my thinking.

1:05:33 Um Be open minded. I think we've talked about almost all of them. Um I think then you have to then know about How to leverage yourself. Okay.

1:05:46 In other words, as you do more and more. Uh, how do you do more and more when your brain has a capacity limit. Okay. And there's only a certain number of hours in the day.

1:05:57 Or the week. Okay. You have to know how to do that. Is that focus or is that something. Yeah. No.

1:06:04 It's knowing how to do it through others. Okay. It's knowing how to pick. Others. And orchestrate w well.

1:06:13 It's like uh running a symphony or whatever. Okay. Get the best Players. Okay, when I say uh you know Um good character and good capabilities. And orchestrate them well.

1:06:26 And then provide that um that leverage. Like uh um when I was doing the most. I had thirty direct reports. Whatever the number is. It's always uh It the process is how to get more out of a minute or a day. Not how to work harder.

1:06:46 Okay. It's how to leverage yourself. And you're gonna leverage yourself by picking the right people who you can trust. They're not gonna screw you, they're gonna operate in your interest, and they're going to be capable. And so a lot of people what you can do is you can deal with them

1:07:02 And then you can say uh like I I would deal with them on the thirty reports. I'd have maybe um an hour meeting with them. Once every two weeks.

1:07:14 And and they go off and do things. And when you do that, you can even find people who are much better at things than you would be if you did them. Because if you have these different things Okay, you better. Because otherwise

1:07:29 You don't have the capacity. You have these two. key challenges to to overcome as an entrepreneur, which is find these great capable people that have great character, and then like bind them with the right culture to make sure that they do the best work. Right. And and uh in other words It it's meaningful work and meaningful relationships. through radical truthfulness and radical transparency.

1:07:52 radical truthfulness and transparency. Okay. First, if you can have um Meaningful work and meaningful relationships. The people are on the mission with you.

1:08:07 Wow. That's fantastic. But Yeah. You better be truthful and transparent. That'll show that you're honest and you better because you have to get a truth.

1:08:19 including what people are bad at. and how to deal with all those things. And and most people hide them. They don't bring them out in into the open. Okay. Th everybody's worried about hurting each other's feelings or

1:08:35 Y you know, uh that. And then so they're not honest with each other. And and there were w that's the barrier. We talked about the barrier of disagreement. There's it's like that. Okay. Um You know. Uh, I don't know. Are are are you good at that? Are you striking out?

1:08:51 If you're striking out and what is it, how do we deal with it, you better talk about that clearly'cause you need to have an A team. Um players. You know, you have to work yourself so your team is an A team of players who are tight. How did you do that at Bridgewater? How did you make people honest? Oh well, uh f first of all, um, out of policy.

1:09:10 Talk behind another person's back. Um Critically. That happens three times you're out. And then I would

1:09:20 have radical transparency so everybody could see everything. So you could see why I'm making decisions that I would reflect. But the main thing is you know, you know if it's happening or not.

1:09:35 Okay. And I made that comfortable. Because that's un ordinarily uncomfortable. We talked about the fact that there's an intellectual you and there's an emotional subliminal you. Okay.

1:09:46 I made them understand like if I had a team A football team. And so on. That this is gonna be better for the team, it's gonna be better for you and you'll have your evolution because what do you wanna have dishonesty? Do you want people to

1:10:02 think one thing about you and Really say something different? Mm-hmm. How is that gonna work? So

1:10:10 There's an intellectual Okay, we believe it. And then also by having the meaningful relationships. I mean I'm not I don't force them, I create a culture of meaningful relationships so that they Huh.

1:10:24 I'm knowing each other for a long time. They go Go to each other's parties or they go to each other's There are funerals, there are baby showers, there are these things. Not that anybody's fa w I I created Uh clubs.

1:10:40 I said any club That you want to create that has more than Uh twenty people. Um, whatever it is, up to five hundred dollars per person I'll pay for half. So so I don't clear what it is.

1:10:55 If it's Play softball or play час. Or whatever it is that you're enjoying each other's company. Or you wanna go to ball games or something, I don't care what it is, I'll pay for half up to

1:11:07 that up to five hundred dollars. So I T. nobody has obligations to or something, but if I have that kind of meaningful relationships, so you can talk. Honestly with each other. Uh I found that very helpful.

1:11:22 And you built a famously built an idea Meritocracy. Which In my understanding, means where the best idea ends up winning in the company versus just your idea because you're the most powerful person in the business. Right. I mean, I want what do I want? I want the best idea to win. This sounds simple, but but again, it's it's not how businesses operate. One of the fascinations I've always had is that when businesses get bigger and they have more

1:11:46 intellectual horsepower by I mean if you just added up how many brains they had. They sometimes Get less innovative. And

1:11:55 It it feels like the the COVID. Yeah. Okay. There's um I found it to be true. And it's well established fact. That if you get a group of people past a certain size Which is seventy five to a hundred people.

1:12:15 Um they don't know each other. Okay. They they they start to And then You lose those relationships, you lose a lot, and so on. I found it because uh um

1:12:27 At the holiday season every year. What I would do is I would write Everybody. notes, long notes in in their card, and I would pick an individualized holiday gift for them. And when it got to be to sixty seven

1:12:43 People. I remember the year. It broke my back. I mean I I just couldn't do it. Okay. And I realised that at that point. I was

1:12:55 Going into another frame. Okay. And so it's a r organizational reality that you can keep that group and then what you have to do is then you have different those different areas and you have to create cohesiveness between those different areas. And Kohisivness

1:13:11 common mission and how do you do that between that. So like for example when we would have our holiday party, where it used to be everybody would be You know, sort of go in and you have a holiday party. And everybody together. What I found out is we had a big arena.

1:13:27 that we would uh go to. And I'd have both. I'd have okay. Um that department is in that area and whatever, and then they come out and they all mingle together and so on. So there's an organizational Thing.

1:13:41 that you've got to realize in terms of culture and and Management of that. It's like villages in a city, I guess. Like you basically keep Build the villages and then interesting. Okay. Yeah. All media companies at that exact point now it's at It's at that.

1:13:56 Ninety ninety odd people. Oh, okay. There you are. So when you said seventy five to a hundred, I was like uh interesting. Yeah. I was thinking about all the things I should be doing now. to counteract some of those adverse effects of of culture splintering or relationships breaking down, but I guess you've described it there. Yeah.

1:14:13 Interesting. And I have to say, one of the things that I found to be most p I'm thirty three years old, I just turned thirty three last week. It's crazy how How often people say that hiring is the most important thing. Yeah, when you look at how what entrepreneurs are spending their time on, it's usually like the product, the marketing, et cetera. And it's maybe like one or two hours. in some cases, if they're lucky, on finding truly exceptional people. They often just outsource it to someone else, the recruitment team.

1:14:40 When you think back through your career. How important was it to find Truly exceptional people. Of course. Well I systemized it.

1:14:48 First of all Um I think That anything I do or one does. can be systemized. So I would think

1:14:57 What are the personalities, what are The backgrounds of the people that I'm hiring. What are the choices? How do I specify it? And I've and I got it. By also maintaining a lot of data.

1:15:10 with people. There's um There's a TED talk I did. That it uh explains how like data uh Everybody's going around and they're operating in a certain way, so I know what people are like. If you know what people are like, you know what you can expect of them.

1:15:26 And then I would then say in a very data way. Those people who are successful In these jobs have the following attributes. That would create a job spec.

1:15:41 specifications. for that type of job. So I I knew That in that type of job they would be that type of person I'm looking for.

1:15:50 Mm-hmm. Okay. What works, they work. Okay, data. And then I would find that would be my Jobs back. And and so we had the systems. And then we had some people who were responsible.

1:16:05 For doing that because you're right, it takes time. How can I interview all those people and so on. But who can you trust? And you're operating that way. And then evaluation process Doesn't stop. When you hire them.

1:16:19 Okay, the valuation process continues. From that moment and you still learn more about what they're like and you do that same process and still think, would I still have hired them? And and if I wouldn't have hired them. You know, in the first place. Then they shouldn't be there.

1:16:36 And so I have a process. And people, people in process. Do people change after a certain point? So if you've hired someone in six months and twelve months and they haven't changed. Is it worth giving them another year? Is it worth a performance review? I found out that For me the big question mostly there were two big questions, but um

1:16:56 The big question. is how do you adapt to my culture. And that would take about eighteen months to find out. Like Can you speak honestly? About what

1:17:08 Can we have thoughtful disagreement? Do you like this evolutionary process where you're challenged and all of this kind of thing? That culture. That'd take about eighteen months. And then roughly speaking

1:17:20 Then Learning about the people. Their strengths and weaknesses. would take eighteen months to Two years maybe something along those lines.

1:17:31 And so Then You know, you could pretty much Decide. But always being open every day by day, so nobody's surprised.

1:17:41 that you're always talking about things, you know, how's it going? Make sure you keep what I'm about to say to yourself. I'm inviting ten thousand of you to come even deeper into the diary of a sea. Welcome to my inner circle. This is a brand new private community that I'm launching to well. We have so many incredible things that happen that you are never shown. We have the briefs that are on my iPad when I'm recording the conversation. We have clips we've never released. We have behind the scenes conversations with the guests, and also the episodes that we've never ever released. And so much more.

1:18:14 In the circle, you'll have direct access to me. You can tell us what you want this show to be, who you want us to interview, and the types of conversations you would love us to have. But remember for now we're only inviting the first ten thousand people that join before it closes. So if you want to join our private closed community, head to the link in the description below or go to D O A C Circle.com. Dot com. It's a really interesting time to be leading a business. New skills are constantly being invented, and ones that didn't exist a few months ago are now all of a sudden essential. Our team at Flight Story thrives on staying ahead of emerging tech and innovation. So whenever we need to plug into those skills of the future, like vibe coding, AI agent development, generative engine optimization, all of the technical things we've talked about on this show before, we always go to the same place, which is Fiverr, our show sponsor, and the place where that future focused talent quietly shows up before the rest of the world catches on.

1:19:06 Their freelancers are reliable, high performing, and also highly vetted. And you'll find them in over 750 categories. Fiverr isn't just for quick jobs. We use their talent more on complex long-term projects, ones that require an expert to take charge. And you can tap into tomorrow's talent at fiver.com slash diary, and for 10% off your first order, use code. Diary. AI is um a bit of an alien that seems to have entered the room. Um And has

1:19:32 It's gonna change more ever almost every every industry. Great. Yeah. I can't tell if you're being so crafty. No. Truly. If you are

1:19:42 Um, working with it. controlling it. If it's a good partner. To be able to get a lot of leverage. Yeah.

1:19:51 Truly fantastic. As I said. In almost everything I did. We had the crit criteria, we had the systemized, would you do that, would you not do that, how did you know, how does reality work? What are the principles? And and so

1:20:05 It's of Fantastic leveraging. Like I described, you know, I would make the decision making model like the computer chess game that would make it. Well now It's better than uh ever those those resources. So it leverages you enormously. What about having a strong middle? We talked about having the strong sort of economic political middle. Political middle. Yeah.

1:20:27 Yeah. Is it gonna drive a inequality? it's going to be um it has good things and bad things And we were talking let's say first about managing and doing that. I think in managing and knowing what people are like and how they're all it's gonna be very, very valuable, mostly very valuable.

1:20:50 in terms of changing Um There'll be. uh a limited number of winners. And a bunch of losers.

1:20:58 And um I think it's gonna create much greater Polarity. Which as we're seeing. Um through the system the ways that we talked about.

1:21:09 You know that Top. One to ten percent. benefiting a lot and then so that will be a a dividing Uh, force, I think. Gotta gotta pose the question, with robotics accelerating at the speed of of of light, with Optimus and Tesla and all the things they're doing and all these other companies, humanoid robots, and then with artificial intelligence.

1:21:30 having trillions of dollars plowed into it and accelerating. We're in this crazy boom at the moment. With these two things combining. you're gonna be able to have a humanoid robot who that can navigate human spaces. But is also smarter than I am. Lawyers accountants.

1:21:45 Um Lots of people in the medical profession. Why would you why would one Need them. if we had a humanoid robot that is smarter than all of us and has a PhD in everything.

1:21:57 Well, we will not need a lot of those jobs. For the reasons that you're s saying. Okay. And then the question is what our society does. And what do you think we do?

1:22:11 In such a world. I think we fight over about what we do, unfortunately. Um But as I say, I I I don't think we Have escaped a world where Most people

1:22:25 Have a healthy society. Most people have to be productive. And prosperous. I don't I th I think people need to be now certainly There and there certainly needs to be a redistribution.

1:22:41 policy. I don't think that's just a redistribution of money policy. Because Uslessness and money may not be a great combination. So I think

1:22:55 that you have that has to be figured out. And the question is whether we're too fragmented to figure that out and agree on it. And I'm worried about that. Interesting times. Is there any historical precedents for this in your view?

1:23:10 Someone that knows history. Is there any historical precedents for something like AI and Robotics converging. Um Through Um evolution.

1:23:24 We have gone from A period of time which was called the dark ages or the agricultural age. in which um basically There was land, agricultural, and so on. And people were treated they were essentially like oxen, most people.

1:23:43 And then there were the landowners who were the nobles and then there were the royalty who Uh, with the families that control most things and so on. And then in history. with the uh invention Of the printing press.

1:23:57 There became More knowledge. Um at more intelligent. And we see an evolution. In which um

1:24:08 You start to see new ages emerge. and thinking emerge and power change. And I won't take you through the whole history. But you start to see That individuals can be clever enough.

1:24:21 To earn money. That my so you begin the age of exploration and the industrial revolutions in which machines replaced People. And it's almost like They first replaced them physically.

1:24:37 That um In other words, they didn't have they were not like oxen doing the thing, so you get a tractor or something. And it do and it's almost like from the body Up. In terms of the mind. And so you've seen

1:24:51 that evolution through time. And the rise of intelligence in its various forms. Go through this arc. of rising in intelligence And now you see that intelligence matters more than anything.

1:25:07 Okay. It matters more than money, it matters more than anything, because intelligence will attract people amo those with money to invest in them in the development of that. And so we have seen this arc. through history develop in that way, right? And we've seen people replaced.

1:25:26 Now the question is as we get higher and higher in thinking. Okay, whether we've run out of capacity to shift or whether we're just gonna be totally replaced. Our muscles have been totally replaced.

1:25:41 But okay, as this is happening, our best thinking may be totally replaced. And we're gonna have to deal with that question. Are you hopeful? I'm excited.

1:25:56 I'm I think it all comes down to human nature. Okay. I'm excited in that Fast forward. Make the most of it.

1:26:09 Jump on it. You know, I'm excited. I've also watched uh the evolution of species. Омостол спеції в кам.

1:26:22 For certain reasons. And they uh one of the reasons that they come uh have come and gone is because almost uh their strengths Are not in all respects great strengths. You can

1:26:34 Use these things, intelligence, To your detriment. And I believe that Um

1:26:43 The things that These technologies and so on bring us While very important, it extends life expectancy and all of that. is not import as important as human nature. And so if you were to go back in time and were different societies

1:27:02 Do you have happier societies? Is the well being greater? Okay. So you can go fifty years ago And you might say the well being is greater fifty years ago, not in all ways. Not in

1:27:16 In many ways the technologies and and the consequences of those are much better, but you may have had a better life. And it's human nature. of how people are going to deal with each other. So I think the real question is can people rise above This

1:27:33 And and which it goes back to the spirituality question. Can people then Rise above it. So that they think of The collective good.

1:27:44 And they think of You know. Collectively, how do we make the best? And also karma. You know, in other words, um the realisation.

1:27:53 That if I help you In ways that can be so simple for me to help you make such a big difference in your life, and you do the same, and we have win-win relationships. It'll be good. But if we don't do that. And I worry about human nature.

1:28:09 And I worry about this process. Especially when you've got geopolitical Tensions and It's because of human nature. I've had a lot of conversations on the podcast about AI and I just can't seem to get to my own. solid conclusion about this because when I look at human nature as you say

1:28:24 I see greed. I see power, hunger, status. Yeah, some problems you uh just Just accept the fact that you may not be able to be confident about a prediction in the future, so it'll always be a question, and just get on with the fact of using it for yourself in the best way that works for you. That's what I'm doing.

1:28:41 We have a closing tradition on this podcast where the last guest leaves a question for the next, not knowing who they're leaving it for. You know this person. Um Because I've seen you with them. Um the question they left for you.

1:28:52 Is what is a book or books? That you've recommended or gifted more than others and why? Can't say your own, but I will. Um There are three books.

1:29:06 There's a book. On Evolution, but written by Richard Dawkins. Uh River from Eden, I think it's called. Then a book by

1:29:18 Um Will and Ariel Durant, which are the Maybe the greatest historians In time. And it's called Lessons from History.

1:29:29 It's a very short book. I think it's a hundred and four pages. They wrote massive amounts about five thousand years of history and so on, and they sort of condensed their lessons. Lessons from history. And then um Joseph Campbell's

1:29:47 The hero's journey. Is it the The hero with a thousand faces? Yes, that's it. And why M Dorkin's book? Why did you say that one. Evolution.

1:30:00 Everything is evolving. Okay, all species. Man is one of ten thousand species. I mean and they're and they're all structure simply. There's a structure. They they you know, like um

1:30:14 Two eyes. A a brain that has a structure to it, um that and the same parts of the brain. There's the cerebrum, the cerebellum, the prefrontal cortex, there's this structure that makes you think differently and and so on. There's evolution. There's all evolution. So it's not just limited to

1:30:33 um human evolution or what humans are like. It's the force of evolution. Man is only Um Mankind's only about two hundred thousand years old. That's in history that's

1:30:45 Sure. Okay. And and the species. And all species evolve. Okay, and it's very interesting.

1:30:52 So That's you know, that's what his books are about. And You know, I think they're very good. And Joseph Campbell's The Hero's Journey. It's it's it's about human nature and

1:31:02 And the evolution of life and the life journey. That we're talking about. What I find so interesting, right, is how You draw on principles from other domains, whether it's from nature or biology as you were talking about there. to tie in to Your work in business and investing and everything else and life and happiness. And it really says something to me about

1:31:24 being more eclectic and be broadly curious in order to be successful in my more narrative. Yeah, I just um see I I don't uh is that To me, maybe. Too much of a specialist? That kind of mentality, but the world is being interrelated to these things. If you want to understand how reality works,

1:31:44 Um you can't say I'm gonna be just a specialist. I mean these are all affected by each other. Mm. Thank you so much for write writing these books. They are iconic.

1:31:57 And uh the YouTube videos that explain these f these books are iconic. I don't know who you have on your team that makes the animations and pulls it all together, but not only is the content so important because they are principles, so they're enduring through time. But they're so unbelievably accessible to all people of all ages. And if if you if people haven't read this book, I'd be shocked, but Um All of these books are fantastic. The this book Principles by Ray Dalia, which I'm gonna link all of them below for anyone that wants to read them. I suggest you read them all.

1:32:26 Um, will be formative in your life, even if you're not interested in business or investing, because as as it says on the book, they're principles and the the the economy affects us all in ways that we might not understand. We're all trying to be successful or happy in our own right, and that and that's interwoven into all of these books. So thank you. I hope you write more books. Well I and thank you because I'm at a stage in my life, this is a symbiotic relationship, otherwise we wouldn't be here. Okay. And my um my benefit is that I wanna pass along these things and we're doing it together. And I have found, and it's joyous to me. To know that these things have made a big difference in people's lives. People come up to me and they say, Thank you for the difference you've made and you know it

1:33:05 this stage in my life, that's what I want to do. I think that's an understatement. I think it's had a profound impact. In fact, every person I know, all of my best friends, have taken something from your work which has had a profound impact on their decision making, which has led them to be happier in some way. And when I told my friends that I was interviewing you, I'm interviewing 16 people while I'm in New York over the over the next month. When I told my friends, my best friends in the world that I'm interviewing you, all of them Well Telling me to pass on a message of thanks. Because there's something in one of these books that's helped them and they're all young people in that first season of their life and there's there's something in all of these books that's um pushed them closer to their success and their happiness. So thank you for on behalf of me, because you've had a profound impact on me, but thank you. Thank you for giving me that joy.

1:33:45 I know I mean to know that. Thank you. I really, really mean that. Thank you so much, Ray.

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