How tech workers actually feel about AI in 2026 | Annual AI sentiment survey (Noam Segal)

0:00 Bad news for the Czech community. Burnout at work is a major problem, and AI could add to this already overwhelmed employee problem. The honeymoon period with AI is over. When people are asked, what what are you afraid of? Losing my job to AI is actually second to last. What we saw rise up to the top. Is the expectation to do more. For the same Hey.

0:26 survey on How people are feeling. In tech right now, burnout is increasing significantly. Optimism is declining. It's never been crazier. When we can get to the optimistic part of this uh of this episode half of the people in tech.

0:43 And the other half. Then she told us. My brain is rotting. My work feels Worse. Way of describing it. We're definitely living in a simulation if we're alive right now, when we're about to start building data centers in space, and AI is gonna be the smartest human. But does this tell us we should be doing if we can do anything? We're in the second inning of a massive shift. No one knows how it will end.

1:10 But all you can do is Today my guest is Noam Siegel. Know him and I go a long way back. We worked together at Airbnb for many years, where he was my research partner. Since then he went on to be a research leader at Intercom, Twitter, Wealthfront, Meta, Zapier, and Figma.

1:28 Gnome is so amazing. And over the past couple years, I've been lucky to partner with him on a bunch of research projects, the most ambitious of which has been a tech worker sentiment survey, which we plan to run every year. This is the second time we run it. And the results are so interesting. I believe this is the largest survey of its kind, looking at how people in tech feel about their jobs.

1:51 And AI and layoffs and burnout and the future of their careers. There's so much in this. And basically this episode is a conversation about the results. At the end of the conversation, we go through a bunch of advice on what you might do if you are currently on the struggle bus and trying to figure out what to do.

2:09 I am so excited for this episode. I'm so excited for this report. A big thank you to Noam for doing the work. to create the survey, run the survey, analyze the survey, and write the post that we will link to. It is so good. Before we get into it, do not forget to check out Lenny'sProductPast.com. For a free year.

2:25 Of the hotest and most well crafted AI product in the world. Available exclusively to Linny's newsletter subscribers. With that, I bring you Noam Siegel. No um thank you so much for being here and welcome to the podcast.

2:41 Thank you so much, Lenny. It's such an incredible experience to be here. Thanks for having me. Uh it's my pleasure. We've actually worked together for a long time and no few people know this. We you're the researcher on our team uh when I was at Airbnb this like ten years ago. Decades ago, a decade ago, Lenny. So much has changed. So much has changed. So much has changed. Uh, which is a great segue to what we're gonna be talking about today. Which is we did this survey on

3:08 How people are feeling. In tech right now. Uh it's never been crazier. And so we Did this report on just how are people feeling?

3:16 And this is the second time we've done this. We ran this a year ago. And the idea here is we're gonna have this yearly Tech sentiment survey that's gonna track how to do it. Tech people are feeling. What's kinda the

3:28 Give us a little context just on this survey. Like How how you ran it, how What were we looking at? Anything people need to know? Yeah, so to your point, this is the second time we're running this survey, which I really feel is unique. in the tech industry. I appreciate you for

3:44 giving me the opportunity and giving us an opportunity as a community to learn more about how we're all feeding in tech. I'm not aware of any survey like this at this scale looking at these things. Last year when we ran the similar tech sentiment, the first inaugural tech sentiment. Survey. The title was burnt out but optimistic. We were seeing fairly high levels of burnout, but also fairly good levels of optimism about where things are going. And we actually followed up on the burnout point and we created the Armour framework, if you remember.

4:18 And uh I'm I'm really glad we we did that. This year We surveyed about six thousand People. From product Engineering

4:30 design, research, pretty much uh any world, marketing, pretty much any role. In tech. And the results were Very interesting. So I'm very excited to jump into them. Yeah, just remember when you shared the first draft of the analysis.

4:43 Uh, and I was just like reading it, I was like, Holy shit, this is so interesting. And it just feels like it's putting words to The way I feel The way that I hear a lot of people feel. So I'm really excited that we're doing this.

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6:07 What's kinda the It's like the big picture takeaway from the report overall, if someone could take one big takeaway away. Well first I'll say that You and I both noticed an incredible post from Elena Verner a couple of days before this pod was recorded and she's talking about the AI confidence

6:26 the And how in conversations these days in tech, everything is dead, first of all, engine coding is dead, design is dead, SAS is dead, et cetera. Obviously, that's Not true. So what you're about to see in these results is the best picture we could provide. And probably the best picture anyone's provided so far.

6:47 Of how people are really feeling about AI And to me this also ties to the fact that If you were if you're watching this and you work in tech, you probably answer some sort of biannual culture amp style survey about how you're feeling

7:03 But the questions don't really dive any deeper than the effectiveness or of your manager or leadership at the company you work at. Whereas The big picture in this survey and

7:17 And I think The the thing that stood out to us the most Is how bifurcated the workforce is right now. And what you're going to see is that AI has

7:29 an outlier level. outsize impact. on how people feel about their work more so Than any А да

7:39 uh characteristic of their job, whether it's their role The company they work for, the company size, the level Extra. half of the people in tech

7:51 Are feeling incredible. Energized. Amplified. excited about the technology. And the future of

8:00 You know, their role. And the other half. Feel Like the future's unclear. They feel destabilized, they feel

8:09 Diminished. um other negative emotions Around that. It's uh it's a very interesting picture that really Cuts the tech workforce in half, and that's what we'll see in a second.

8:22 It feels so like yes, this feels correct as we we look at people in tech, like it just uh is so clear that this happening. And what's interesting is it's fifty fifty. in the results. I didn't expect to be so even. That was a really interesting takeaway. It's fifty fifty. When you dive a little bit deeper into the data, there is some nuance there. So we're looking at the slide with the question that you and I both decided to add to the survey, which is how has AI Shifted your professional identity.

8:51 If at all. And I'll actually call out first of all that only three percent of people reported that AI hasn't shifted their identity. So clearly AI has changed how we each You ourselves. That's first of all. But then to your point, the most prominent thing here is that fifty percent of people in tech are feeling

9:11 Amplified. They feel like they can do more. They feel like they can do better. It's a holy Positive.

9:19 Uh emotion. And it's great. It's great it's great for them. But the other half of tech divide into three distinct groups. The first group is people who feel like their role is being redefined. They don't that group doesn't actually have that much clarity

9:38 or specific positive or negative emotions around what's happening, they just don't really understand it. It's a very mixed bag type of emotion where it's very clear to me. That my role is fundamentally changing. But I don't really know what That means.

9:55 And that's twenty seven percent of our sample. Then as we go down the line we have two groups who have Clear negative emotions around what's going on. The first group, 14% of people feel destabilized. You know the The ground is shaking beneath them.

10:15 They have very little clarity on what's going on. They have high anxiety. levels they report having uh very negative and and uh pessimistic views of what's to come. And then five percent of people feel diminished.

10:32 They feel like the great powers of AI have Taken something away. From that. Uh and something that obviously is never going to come back because uh what's the saying uh AI and air models are the worst today that they'll ever be. They're only getting better. So people who fe who feel diminished now.

10:53 Will only feel more diminished. In the future. Followed me. Super. So following that thread. Sorry for the bad news. Sorry for the the bad news. There's some good news here.

11:03 So following the thread, uh This these buckets correlate super strongly. with basically every other measure of how people are doing. See this kind of regression on just like every other core. uh question you asked and and it's so interesting to see how connected these are.

11:19 Yeah. And just to put A couple of statistical terms on this to to clarify how big the effect is. In tech, we are somewhat obsessed with the notion of statistical significance. But the thing about statistical significance is that if you have a large enough sample you can

11:36 sort of reach that type of s significance. regardless of how much the effect matters Practically. A better way to look at things is using an effect size measure like Cohen's D in in this case. And what effect size tells you is practically how much does this thing matter.

11:56 So for example Last year, a couple of the largest effects we saw. were number one, your manager Who your manager is and how effective they are matters a ton. to how much you're enjoying your job and how optimistic you are and how burnt out you are or not. And we'll see some of that.

12:14 Later on. And the second large effect we found was the founder happiness effect. Founders, at least people who are currently founders and in their journey of running a startup. are incredibly happy, probably because they have lots of agency and and autonomy relatively to

12:31 Um the typical employee. This finding this insight around the impact of AI

12:39 on your identity and on every single other variable around your job. is about three times as large. As those other Effects. So this technology, this era that we're in, is having an outline level

12:56 outsized impact on how people are feeling about work, more so than Anything else we've seen. Let's actually look at that data of just how This sort of classification connects to just optimism, burnout, things like that. Uh because this is and we're gonna come back to just like what exactly is that divide, just the question to ask.

13:13 That tells you which side you're on, but let's look at this first. Yeah, so we'll dive into some of these things in a little more depth later on, but just to put it all together, what you're looking at here is the AI identity stance And then a breakdown by your A identity around career optimism. Burn out.

13:33 Lay off worry. And An interesting one for me. And we'll talk about this further. Would you recommend your role? To someone coming into the industry.

13:44 No. And what you can see is that as you move from the people who feel amplified to the people who feel Diminished. Career optimism goes down significantly.

13:56 Burnout. Or reports of burnout go up. significantly Layoff worry. also rises significantly.

14:06 And perhaps the most significant finding of them all is Is that People would not recommend junior people, early career people. Entering

14:18 into the tech workforce at this moment. Given what's happening. With AI. And you you're seeing these very Linear.

14:27 Clear and organized effects. Which Just demonstrates to you. the impact that AI is having on all of these different Try roles.

14:38 And what I love is you took all of this kind of all these data points and you've created these Can afford archetyp of people today. And uh I feel like everyone listening is gonna be like okay, that's me. So let's go through that. Yeah, so we're seeing these these four tech workers, and the way we got to this is

14:56 Later on in the survey we asked people about How they're feeling And to report specific emotions. And people could choose as many emotions as they wanted, right? And by the way, fun fact, on average people selected five different emotions.

15:13 And I think a couple of people selected thirteen Emotions that Their feeling, which is a lot. So The first archetype we found is the energized tech worker.

15:26 And That's forty one percent of our samples. These are the people who were saying that product has become Fun again. I'm exploring things. I feel like I'm in

15:38 The tech amusement park where Everything is open to me and I can experiment with new approaches. I'm a builder now. I have powers that I've never had before. etc. These people are very energized about the technology and about their Their careers. The second group we called the conflicted, the ambivalent

16:00 middle. These are thirty five percent of The sample. These are people who are having on the one hand The most fun they've ever had. As builders.

16:12 as PMs, as designers, as engineers, whatever their role is. And on the other hand They're feeling the most uncertainty that they've ever felt. in their careers. They just don't understand. Where this is going.

16:27 And whether They're building the things that will ultimately lead to the end of their careers as they know it. The third archetype are the disoriented people, the people who feel like their role keeps Shifting. There's a quote that we saw from one of the the respondents. We're like farmers on the cusp of the industrial revolution.

16:51 And we just don't see a clear path. To what Happening. Very interesting comparison to to that. Era.

17:00 And these are people who are feeling very disoriented around what's going on in their career and where things are are leading. And then finally twelve percent of the sample we Categorized as resentful. They're feeling pressured.

17:15 They're feeling checked out. They are not enjoying their work right now. They're saying things like I've been forced to use AI or lose my job.

17:27 And even when I use AI, I'm still seeing people lose their jobs. I just hate it. You know, I I I hate having to leverage this technology. Rather than do my own My own thing and maybe ignore.

17:40 the technology, which obviously None of us can ignore. At this point. There's a lot of people, clearly, that are s very unhappy. resentful, disoriented. I imagine that group can't imagine.

17:53 A lot of people are Feeling extremely energized. And I think the op vice versa. So I think this is uh just like Uh really interesting to see that some

18:02 Many people are very Different from you. Uh, there are many people that are having a really good time. A lot of people that are having a really bad time. And it's just a uh a good uh way to remember that and give and basically have empathy. for the other half, especially the folks not doing as well.

18:18 Because not everyone is as energized. We'll talk about Like what that energized groups look group looks like. But I think that's just an important point. Like a lot of people are having a really hard time. I I really agree with you, Lenny, and I think that

18:30 Given the pace of change of the technology, I I really do feel that too much of our focus is being spent on mastering the technology and trying to understand what the heck we should be doing with these new releases, new models, new capabilities, uh loop engineering, whatever the next thing will be. Next week. And we're not spend enough time and focus on our relationships at work, on seeing our colleagues, on supporting our peers. In also being able to you know, work with this technology, thrive with it, succeed with it.

19:08 and and get along and collaborate well with people who don't belong in the same bucket as us when it comes to how the technology is being Uh perceived. So I personally would love to see All of us, especially energized people. Take some of that energy.

19:26 And spend it on the people around you rather than the all in focus on whatever the next thing is with with AI. Let's go to the next takeaway. Let's talk about Burnout and optimism. Yeah, so last year

19:42 We looked at burnout and we looked at optimism and burnout was At a worrying level. enough that we published further research on it and we introduced the armor framework around how to deal with burnout and fight burnout. And this time around

20:02 I'm not sure what I was expecting necessarily Um, I think I was hoping that optimism would Hold steady. And that burnout wouldn't go up.

20:12 Because supposedly with uh new abilities and even better models, perhaps you might think that we wouldn't have to Workers hard or or or put as much energy into everything in a way that gets us burnt out. And yet that's not what

20:29 We're seeing When it comes to significant burnout, burnout that's higher than moderate. We've gone up from forty four point seven percent. in twenty twenty five to fifty four Point seven percent in twenty twenty six.

20:43 So burnout is surging. More than half of our sample are feeling significantly. burnt out at this point. And at the same time Optimism around the future of our roles and our careers

20:59 is falling from fifty four point eight percent in twenty twenty five. to forty eight point seven percent. In twenty twenty six. Bad news for the tech community. I don't know what to say about this other than that sucks.

21:13 I don't like this. Uh, I get it fully like I can completely understand why people are feeling this. Uh pretty worse some. Yeah. The rise to like a massive jump, like over ten percent.

21:25 Increase in burnout in just in a year. Yeah. And it and it's interesting, you've had several guests on in the past who who've talked about things related to this. I loved your

21:38 conversation with uh Jeff uh from Ramp. Um And he shared that his worst burnout happened when velocity was lowest. So when you put effort into things that don't actually move. It doesn't feel good and that leads Uh to burn out.

21:59 And I think That maps for me with certain theories around burnout where stagnation leads to burnout. I think what's going on now

22:09 Is the opposite. These data showcase to you that As we ship faster than ever. As we move from shipping you know, a couple of Ps a day to thirty Ps a a day. or or just doing so much more.

22:25 In some ways that might be fun. But we are burning out more than than we did. Before. And and we're not working Any less hard.

22:36 Clearly, right? We we we're just taking on More stuff. More stuff, more prototypes. More PRDs. More PRs, more campaigns, more agents, more ads.

22:51 And it's leading to more burnouts. Yeah, and that's actually one of the takeaways, which we'll get to. Uh I don't know if you have this in this deck, but the a glimmer of hope. that you pointed out is that enjoyment of work is actually still

23:03 Very high. That it's burnout, but also people still. at the same level as last year actually really enjoying their work. I think what we heard about enjoyment more than anything else, which does give me hope. Is it's a couple of things, I think. Um

23:18 First of all People are able to bring out certain aspects. of their identity and of their passions. That they weren't able to Before you know, if if you're

23:33 Coming to a PM by roll. But you have a a designer. within you or you're a marketer, but really inside you have that engineer that's been really wanting to to come out. Now you can.

23:47 Right, um various tools that are available to us these days. Enable you to bring out those sides. of your personality and those professional aspirations. And that's something that people are really enjoying

24:01 We're sort of escaping our classic swim lanes. And a certain percentage of our roles. Uh transforming Into something else. And then the second thing that people are saying that

24:13 They're finding enjoyable Is that Um They are able To

24:20 Manifest things that they wanted to build that seemed impossible. Not very long ago. You know, um and that and that's whether it's in the main job or things that they're doing.

24:34 on the side, etcetera. So It is still For many people in tech. An exciting time and and an enjoyable time. Because we can do things that we never thought we'd be able

24:47 to do because the outside of our wall Because they're outside of what felt Technically. feasible Or for other reasons.

24:55 And this is another data point in the at the end of this. You have a bunch of recommendations of what to do. With all this information and that connects to something that you recommend later. But before we get there. Uh one of the other really interesting

25:08 takeaways was around layoffs and how layoffs impact Theoretic layoffs impact burnout, talk about that. We did ask people how worried they are about being laid off, and as you can see Seventy two percent of our sample are worried to a certain extent about being laid off, and forty one point two percent are at least moderately Worried about

25:30 being laid off. So it is clear that people are feeling that They might be uh cutting the branch that they're sitting on. uh when it comes to using

25:42 AI Um people are reporting that their company is going All in on agents, all in on these technologies, and it does feel like they may be Pushed out. at some point. So the the worry level

25:58 is is high And I think if you're watching this, you're starting to notice that there's a ton of ambivalence right now in the community and a ton of Uh. Between

26:11 Emotions. feeling energized and enjoying my job and at the same time not being very Optimistic. about it and feeling tired from it and feeling worried that all of that enjoyment is going to end one day. when the company I work for decides that I'm no longer needed.

26:30 I feel a lot of people listening are probably feeling viewing all this and Uh feeling hard. Uh so What's interesting is so far the kind of two takeaways. One is this bifurcation that's happening and these kind of archetypes that break that group up a little bit further. At the same time.

26:46 Just broadly. Burnout. is increasing significantly. Optimism is declining. Talk about just those two kind of how you think about those two side by side, this idea of

26:56 Many people are much happier and having the best time of their life. Maybe people are having a really bad time, but then broadly this optimism and burnout shift. I think there's something Addictive. About this technology.

27:08 And I'll I'll speak for myself a second and say that, you know, I've also never had as much fun in my career as when using these technologies and I've been Using it for Too many hours a day playing about and building I think many of us

27:24 Even those who aren't as energized by the technology, we still feel like we're in this fascinating technological playground. And it's very, very hard to disengage. From that technology and Touch grass, read a book, whatever you love to do in in your spare time as well, Lenny.

27:43 And so Yes, we're enjoying using this technology because it's opened up avenues that we've never had, but on the other hand, it's tiring. It's tiring to be constantly learning. this technology and quantity trying to apply it in different context and constantly try to take on more than what your traditional bowl

28:03 dictated because again there aren't any traditional roles anymore. We're just all builders. uh these days, whether that's an official thing within a company Or not. And so I think that naturally This leads to these these clashing emotions.

28:21 These exciting feelings around what's possible and how fun it is to use AI. And on the other hand, the realization But the reason this technology is so exciting Is because it's so powerful.

28:36 And because it's so powerful. It might be coming for us. And to take our jobs. Right. Did you did you grow up on

28:46 The Terminator movies? I keep thinking about the Terminator movies. I don't know about growing up, but yes, I I watched them early in my Oh my gosh. I love those movies. And I just can't help but wonder, you know when the robots are coming for us. So uh Incredible technology. Might be coming for us at some point. Skynet. Skynet has been built right. Skynet is used. Skynet is coming. So there's a there's gonna be a really great takeaway around this before we get to that one actually.

29:12 Uh it's like every single one is so interesting and just like, man, this one's interesting, but they're all interesting. Let's get to the next takeaway around. people's sense of their own career and whether they recommend it. This is a wild one for me, because at least within the research community, I am known As the net promotes a score.

29:30 Hater. I even built a website dedicated to fighting NPS. NPS is the worst dot com. Kind of. It's an actual website. Fun facts, by the way, I I dislike NPS so much that I even bought the domain npsthebest.com and I forward people from that to nps is the worst dot com. That's how committed I am To fighting NPS but

29:59 But you and I were both Genuinely curious. About where the people who are, you know, already a few years in And they may be senior or above senior in their roles.

30:13 What would they say to the person entering the industry now. Or what would they say to a person considering entering the industry now? Would they recommend their role and and the tech industry more broadly. To a friend.

30:29 Or relative of theirs? And the answer Was shocking. Absolutely shocking. So let me show you. The data.

30:40 And let me pref preface this with A quick explanation on on NPS because it's not so easy to understand NPS is this question around whether you would recommend A product or in this case your role.

30:54 To a friend. Or family member. Right. And the scale goes from zero To ten. Ten being

31:02 You would absolutely recommend your role. And zero being you would absolutely not recommend your ball. But then NPS as a whole, when it's calculated goes from minus a hundred Which is absolutely terrible.

31:16 Two plus One hundred. And the zero point. Represents neutrality. It represents that the sample as a whole

31:26 Is neutral. It's not. A promoter? to use NPS uh speak. Meaning I would promote

31:34 my role to other people. I would recommend it to other people. And they're not detractors either, which means I'm not negative. about my world. So that's the zero point. What you're seeing here.

31:47 Is that no one is a promoter of their role in tech right now. Not even founders. Who are by far the happiest Happy go lucky people. in in tech right now.

32:02 Founders would not recommend their roles, neither would people in sales or go to market, PMs, operations, engineering, and the worst of all, Designers and researchers. My community. are the least likely.

32:17 To recommend their role. to other people coming into tech. It's sort of like saying You know I'm I'm kind of Swimming in this pool.

32:27 The water's kind of okay, but you shouldn't come into these these tech waters. They ain't for you. My God, what a interesting takeaway and and part of this research. So I'm just looking at this chart just as people are seeing this. Uh Just like nobody everyone's like, no, don't do what I do. It's interesting.

32:46 Like you know. We're gonna talk about how founders are the happiest people in tech. But still it's like a very stressful, hard job. Uh I'm surprised it's like I'm surprised it's the least. Like you would think many founders would be like the s the craziest

33:00 gnarliest job you should not do this sucks, but it's interesting they're the least Unhappy but they're the least Least likely to recommend. There's a strong narrative right now that there's never been a better time to be a founder. You're a lot less reliant on other people to build. There's a ton of conversations around the solo preneur.

33:21 Or the duo penure, right? So there's a ton of conversations around how This is the era To be a founder. And yet people who are currently in that role. Aren't very excited about recommending it to other people.

33:35 There's also another layer to this, which is As you go down in seniority. you're less likely to recommend your role. So execs VPs

33:49 Maybe even directors. Uh sort of more likely to recommend their role than people who are I see. That's an interesting one. I I've seen all sorts of explanations.

34:02 For that. Um, some one explanation, for example, is that At the top of the pyramid, VPs are benefiting more from AI because they're getting All of this stream of information and knowledge being processed by AI. Making their jobs a lot easier.

34:21 Whereas I Cs are each scrambling to build all of these micro SaaS products within the companies they work for. No one knows what anyone else is doing. There's lots of duplicates. Work. It's a lot easier to build.

34:40 products these days, but a lot harder to maintain them. And so I think also by sees a feeling like um there's a saying Um full gas on neutral, right? Like you're pushing the pedal to the metal in your car, but you're in neutral gear. You're not going Anywhere. I think that that's the feeling that a lot of ICs are having these days with these technologies. Like I keep building these things.

35:02 But I'm not having the impact I want. Everyone else is building to There's lots of confusion. And it's just not worth it anymore. There's like this interesting also trend this you know, there's this whole

35:16 Meme of uh don't They become part of the permanent underclass. And I feel like there's like a few of these threads throughout this. And here it's like Okay, I'm like a PM, but like it's too late. Don't do this.

35:28 Like the doors closing for this role. Things are changing. And that's that's not just PM, it's every role. Everyone's just like, maybe should do something else. Yeah, I would agree with that. And I think it's uh it's unfortunate

35:41 I I feel like In the past Uh People were pushed to

35:48 CS to Learn to code. I know that these days For myself as a parent, you know I don't know what to

35:58 Tell my kids to do anymore. I'm not sure what roles will be there for them in just a few years. These are very confusing times and I think tech employees are feeling that as well. Um they don't understand what in line for them in the future. So they certainly don't know to recommend to others, like, yeah, you know, in five years

36:19 It's gonna be great. Yeah, yeah. Like no one knows. It's just like J zoom out for a moment. It's just

36:27 It's so insane how much change we're living through right now. We would not have s like this is not a result we would have seen a year or two ago. This is like So

36:37 And And unstable. And uncertain and this is very new for for people in tech. I think.

36:45 Yeah. I like to use Uh so some Uh metaphors or or or sort of

36:53 uh examples from you know other Uh uh areas in my life to explain these things. So I believe You spoke in the past to uh Scott Wu, the co founder and CO of Cognition.

37:07 Uh-huh. Yeah. And uh and they are the makers of Devin. And I recall that when he described the product, he talked about this This ladder.

37:19 that the product progressed on. It went from a high school C S student to a college intern. to a junior engineer and at this point probably a senior or or staff level engineer. I would say that we are all watching this technology.

37:38 Climb the rungs. Of this ladder. And advance. And we feel like the technology is pulling those rungs from under us. And so

37:50 The further we've gone up the ladder, the better we feel about our careers and the more stability we have, but the lower we are On that ladder. Those rungs getting pulled under our feet. And so it makes lots of sense that we wouldn't recommend, you know, being on that ladder to anyone else because the rungs are disappearing.

38:12 Man, there's so much to talk about with Ellie's, but I mean. It's interesting that sales and PM are the least Uh

38:24 Bad. at don't get into this role. Like That's interesting. I did not I wouldn't expect that. Salespeople. Not a s scare scared about the future of the role PM. Interesting. That's a big audience here.

38:35 Not as scared. Uh As you said, research design the most Don't do this. As a researcher, you touch on this a little bit, but I'm just curious.

38:44 How does it feel seeing this? Seeing this result. It's it's tough. I think the research community has lived with uh a lot of Concerns and

38:57 over the years around having a seat at the table around finding meaning in our work. around topics like the democratization of research and you know, other people taking on our roles and eventually

39:16 replacing us. It it definitely hurts a lot. to see this. I think that's a very important role. That research needs to play. In the future of

39:28 building products. I think that as this technology progresses we should Even more thoughtful. About

39:36 What we built. Uh rather than than less. thoughtful. I've heard the narratives around, you know, it's so cheap to build, just build a thousand prototypes and see what works. I think you've heard this in a recent conversation. Uh as well. I would suggest that

39:53 We're just gonna get even more burnt out. that way. I would not recommend that approach personally. I think research has a very and design has a very important part to play. In Raising the ceiling of what's possible.

40:07 Um, whereas AI has mostly lowered the bar, but it hasn't And I can also tell you that. PMs being somewhat more likely to recommend their roles, even though they're they're not likely to recommend their roles. Does actually make sense to me.

40:26 It's more of a generalist role, I would claim, than some of these other roles. And this is the era of the generalists, if you would ask me, the the AI era. I'm the most surprised by sales and go to market, uh, because If we are indeed in some sort of Saspocalypse, which I don't personally believe we are, but you know, it's been said

40:48 then I don't think uh sales and go to market people should be feeling too great about recommending their roles. Um But but maybe they believe that, you know Sales at this point. Cannot be done.

41:02 By AI. Yeah. There's just like so much I I want to talk about here. Uh it's important to note, this is a very important note that I'm gonna say here. This doesn't mean design is going away or research is going away. This is just saying people in that role right now.

41:15 the narrative in their head. Is Don't do this. Does not mean that. This is over.

41:22 because it could just be all this hype that we keep hearing. Does like you know Guilty of Uh Adding to it. From various guests.

41:30 But you know, this may this is just how people feel. Doesn't mean that's what's happening. A hundred percent. This entire unique project in tech. Is all about how people feel. It's not about the realities of working in tech. It's about people's emotions, about how people feel.

41:46 Um I really do think no one other than us has really captured these emotions in the way that we have. But yeah, that's a great reminder. This is not an image of reality. This is an image of how people are feeling in tech right now. Another quick data point that we wanna make sure to communicate here. You touched on this, but I don't know if you actually made this.

42:05 as as uh clear to people as it should be is Uh So this is looking at would you Yeah. Would you recommend people get into my role?

42:13 You we also asked just how are you feeling about your role? Like, are you happy being in this role? And the result there was I'm actually doing okay. I'm happy I'm a PM, I'm happy a design a researcher. So as you said, it's this kind of like the water's fine, but don't get in. Talk a little bit about that just to make sure that point is clear.

42:28 When we asked people things like uh Are they Enjoying their their job, as we talked about earlier. Uh most people said that

42:39 Overall. Yes. You know, the They're having fun. uh in in their role.

42:45 I think what's going on here is that Again, people are lacking optimism compared to what they were, right? Optimism has gone down. So there's a big difference between How people are feeling now

42:59 about their role given what they've achieved in their careers and where they are On the ladder. compared to what they're extrapolating might happen In a year, in three years, in five years. And what people are extrapolating might happen is clearly

43:18 more negative than their current experiences. So yeah, I mean All in all, we're doing okay as an industry where enjoying, we're trying new things, we're experiencing Uh a a complete paradigm shift. In how we work.

43:35 And that's fun. For a while. But it's it seems like people feel like this is not going in the best of Directions. And of course I hope we're all b

43:46 I hope we're all wrong. Me too. As a natural optimist, I'm like It's gonna be all right. So we'll see. I'm a natural optimist too. And I'm realizing like so far we haven't been in too much of optimism mode, so I hope we manage to

44:00 Get to some of that as well. This episode is brought to you by Mercury, radically different banking loved by over 300,000 entrepreneurs, and now with command. I've been a customer of Mercury's for over six years. I have never once thought about leaving. Mercury is basically what happens when banking is built by product people, not by bankers. They make it so easy. Dare I say fun? To send invoices, move money around, set up virtual cards for folks on my team.

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44:59 Ten seconds later, I have an answer. It is so freaking cool. Visit Mercury.com to learn more and apply online in minutes. Mercury is a FinTech company, not an FDIC insured bank. Banking services provided through Choice Financial Group and Column NA members FDIC. Let's talk about takeaway four, looked at productivity, looked at quality. Look at the just the kind of the upside of AI. This was a very interesting one to me. In last year's survey

45:28 um that we did on the impact of AI specifically on productivity and quality. People were rather bullish about the technology and How much better it makes them, not just more efficient. But better And this time around we saw some some interesting

45:47 findings. Let me start with with this. And this is sort of the initial view, but it leads to something very different than I thought would happen. When we simply ask the question, How much better are you at your job thanks to AI? Unequivocally, the answer was yes. You can see here that ninety seven point two percent of people are saying that AI

46:08 Is making them better at That job. And close to fifty percent of people are saying that AI is making them very much or extremely. Better.

46:18 Uh So it's very clear. that high level However you interpret better, which we'll get to in a second. People feel like AI has had

46:29 And impact. But when you dive deeper Into what that means and you go below the surface level, as you can see here. We're doing better.

46:42 Actually means something rather different than Yeah. You might think. So when I heard people say they're doing better I thought They meant that literally. I thought the quality of their work

46:54 was better. That AI was contributing to better quality of work. In effect, it's the exact Opposite. What we heard from people were two concerning things. The first is that

47:06 I can do more. Faster. But not Better. So again, AI is sort of

47:13 Lowered the floor. of what's possible and it and enable people to put out A lot more work. than they ever have before, whatever that work is, whether it's uh PRs, PRDs, research projects, prototypes. But then no.

47:29 The output Isn't of higher quality. And perhaps the even more concerning effect which we heard about the the deeper cost Of all of this.

47:41 Is the cost Of Using AI on thinking And judgment. People essentially told us

47:50 My brain is rotting. My work feels. Worse. And this this is related to phenomenon.

47:59 I've heard about recently like um is it cognitive rot? I think is what What I've heard. Basically This phenomenon where

48:10 You sort of see the initial output of And AI. Motal And you sort of just accept it. You don't apply your judgment to it, you don't apply your thinking.

48:21 to it And you slowly let your your mind, your involvement in your work, your agency sort of collapse. Into this

48:33 Rossing state, so to speak. This yeah, this is such an interesting takeaway. Just uh like this is a positive there's a positive Note to this, as you said, I'm looking at the numbers here. Eighty two percent of people say AI is making them at least moderately better at their job.

48:48 And nearly fifty say very much or extremely better. Which may correlate with that original just the spyfrication. Like the people that feel like AI is making them better at their job, probably the people feel like most energized. So whether it's true or not So I think there's a couple of happy points. That's one, people feel AI is making them better. They like they

49:05 Feel that. So that's you know, that's real, even if it may not be. And at the same time I think they're self aware. The quality is An issue.

49:14 And also I'm just Maybe Luton. My I'm atrophying in my ability to say code. Or write strategy docs. So at least people are self aware that this is happening, not just I'm killing it, all my stuff is higher quality and it's much better than ever. They are self aware, but you know, among other things, I'm a certified coach. And I would suggest that beyond being self aware, we need to act.

49:36 Mm-hmm. There are several explanations I could give to this phenomenon. One of them might be that the honeymoon period With AI is over. You know, w we thought it was Perfect.

49:48 And you know, the the best thing that ever happened to us. since uh sliced bread or whatever typical Americans say. Um But we've realized It's not quite there yet. And yes, the models are the worst they're ever gonna be. They're only getting better, but there's still so much they need to get better before we can really say, Yeah, like my work is just so much better. And

50:10 I don't need to be as involved. With it. Uh you had Simon Willison on on this show talking about how people are worried about skill atrophy. Um that they're not learning. Enough.

50:24 And that we need to be Consciously resistant. to this and not let ourselves cognitively rot And I think this data suggests that we're Losing that fight a little bit when Japan

50:37 It puts a little bit more energy. into it, into fighting this cognitive rot that That we're feeling. And to make sure that As the bar

50:48 continues to rise and this technology continues to evolve, that we're meeting that with Deliberate practice, deliberate thinking. Deliberate judgments. People are just so bad at that. Just like if I have an easy button, I will press it. I no I shouldn't, but I'm just gonna eat those Doritos.

51:06 So that's the challenge I think for people is just like Because you could do it the easy way, it's so hard to resist. And that connects again to this ladder that's being raised. that people are just getting into the stuff. It's just They have to make themselves do it the hard way to learn how to do it for real.

51:20 Yeah, I'm really Curious how that plays out with junior folks in the market learning. How to actually code, how to do writing, how to write a PRD from scratch with your fingers. Versus talking to Claude about it. Yeah, there's so much to say here. I think um the the more I think people miss feeling smart

51:37 Sometimes, you know. I think I I thought Once upon a time about myself, that I'm I'm smallest. And then you encounter these These models, most recently uh Fable uh five that just uh came out for the second time. And you don't feel that smart anymore and you sort of lose the sense of self efficacy that That you used to have

51:58 And And the second thing to say about this is that Every time you, you not the AI, solve a problem and get over a barrier. It's Increases it raises your baseline.

52:11 of self efficacy of self confidence of self belief And every time you offload that. to your favorite AI model, you're lowering that baseline and your thinking and your judgment is watching and that's a serious problem.

52:29 Report I love I'll just read. The productivity gains are real, but the quality of the work And the sharpness of the person producing it or taking a hit. Absolutely. And maybe we'll get to this in the end, but we should

52:42 Keep a close eye on this and really try to work on our own self effects. We need like evals for people. Like are humans becoming. Evals for people. Let's let's do that. Your smartness. Okay, let's talk about takeaway number five. Which I also thought was extremely interesting. My God. So much So much interesting in this. Let's talk about it. The fifth takeaway.

53:03 Yeah, so I think the dominant narrative right now in in our community is is the fear of being replaced and as we Talks about. A lot of people in tech. Doofia.

53:15 And are worried that they're going to be replaced, that they're going to be laid off. And so It would make sense. that if we had a question and one of the options

53:27 to respond to that question were I'm worried about losing my job to AI, that it would rank fairly high. But when we look at the slides. And when we look at

53:37 When people ask You know, what are your concerns and what's bothering you right now. What what are you afraid of in tech? Losing my job to AI It's actually second to last.

53:50 On that list. And instead what we saw rise up to the top. is the expectation to do more For the same thing. Hey. It's almost as if we're we're all feeling like we're being squeezed.

54:02 And squeeze and squeeze some more. To accomplish more things. In less time. For the same thing. Hey.

54:11 And so that fear of being overworked. is by far the the dominant fear. Alongside the second item in this list, which is that the pace is becoming unsustainable. And by pace I mean

54:26 Both the pace of the work And the expectation of work velocity, just how much you have to put out. A day? Every single day. And the pace of change of the technology.

54:40 Which requires you to invest a significant amount of time in learning. the new model, the new framework, the new way to use the technology. Which of course takes away From your core Focused working time.

54:56 So it's sort of an evil downward spiral that really prevents you From uh feeling like you're able to accomplish anything of of meaning. You just feel very overworked, very tired. I'm confident. Everybody listening.

55:12 uh understands exactly what you're describing here. Uh Obviously connects to that burnout point we made earlier. Uh I'll close this takeaway with uh another quick read from your post. Your such a Amazing writer. No, I'm

55:25 Thank you. I love re I love reading your uh your summaries of of what you learned. So I'll just read this. The speed AI unlocked. got plowed straight back into expectations. Every game becomes a new baseline. And the people expected to hit it are running out of room to breathe.

55:40 When we can get to the optimistic part of this uh of this episode. Maybe we'll find something. Okay, let's talk about it which has a little bit of optimism. Oh yeah, okay. A lot of ambivalence is. Yeah, but it Yeah, I I mentioned this earlier. Uh the industry is definitely in a state of Ambivalence. We we try to capture all of the emotions.

56:05 that people are feeling at work right now. And I am happy to report, as you can see here, that the top two emotions Uh Positive emotions. Curiosity.

56:18 And excitement. And that's wonderful. That is optimistic. I'm glad That's the case. People are sharing

56:27 that they're excited about the technology, about the the capabilities, about what they're able to They're feeling curious about what the future might bring and what else they could do as these models and systems continue to evolve. That's wonderful.

56:46 But as you go down this list, you can see that there's this very interesting mix. of positive, negative, and neutral emotions. People are also feeling overwhelmed. People are feeling conflicted. People are feeling

56:59 Believed. In certain ways. Um about you know, what AI has taken from them in a in a good sense. You know, what they've been able to offload.

57:10 to AI. And then people are feeling tired. Burnt out. Just working hard and harder, as we said. Uneasy, anxious

57:21 And then hopeful. So as you can see. There is a wide variety of of emotions here and it's uh It's really tough to to figure out what exactly is going on. But one thing I I definitely wanted to mention, which uh Nikhil Singal mentioned in an episode with you, I know he's a friend of the pod

57:45 And such an incredible leader in in product and in general in in the tech community. He talks about smiling exhaustion. And I just love that term because I think it captures this ambivalence, the the old type of emotion, the old type of burnout.

58:05 was just completely grim. You know It it's it it it it was all about these negative emotions that come from disengagement. And exhaustion. Whereas now when kill talks about finding exhaustion

58:20 It's about people Almost feeling reborn. On the one hand You know, I'm shipping again, I'm building, I'm creating these incredible things with AI, there's never been a more exciting

58:34 Time. But There's no off switch. There's no off switch and so the tempo is absolutely brutal. The rules keep rewriting themselves every single day.

58:48 It's a very Relentless. Peace. And so we're smiling. Through that exhaustion that

58:56 that way of feeling. And I think that captures the ambivalence more than Than anything really. I think it's also good to kinda come back to one of the core points. You made earlier that half of people are actually feeling very

59:08 Like they are working very hard. probably exhausted at times, but they're also just like really into they're going Yeah, all in. Uh feeling good, energized about where things are going. So I think it's important to always remember like can come back to that as we share all these

59:22 Negative. elements. There's actually a large group of people that are actually loving this time and doing super well. There are

59:31 I think more than anything, what I would like to highlight here Is that You know, we tend to think of things way too often in Black and white. Yeah. We see people as either people who are just full of hype

59:46 Or people who are Is it Duma's would that be the right Yeah. You know, or haters or whatever you want to call it. What we think here Is that

59:57 As always in life, if you ask me. Things aren't as simple. Um behind that facade. behind the theatrics that Elena Bernard discussed. We all have

1:00:08 Both. The hype person within us And the Duma to a certain extent. And the only difference between us is that we have different uh amounts of each

1:00:19 Yeah. We're not just one or the other, and there really is a ton of ambivalence. And And I just want people to know that it's okay, you know, it's okay to be excited and curious, but also feel overwhelmed. It's okay to feel believed and tired. It's okay to feel resentful. Even if all in all you feel positive about the technology, those emotions can coexist within us. It's very natural.

1:00:45 Don't let this narrative that you're either or Um to to dominate and to convince you that Anything's wrong with how you feel because really all of these emotions are Very understandable given the times we're in. Such an important point.

1:01:00 I love that you said that. Okay. So the next takeaway What we did here is when we were looking at this bifurcation. That you found. We looked at just

1:01:10 Which functions are having the best time and worst time? And uh we had a hint at this earlier. Uh, and it turns out there's a couple that are just overall having the worst time right now and feeling the least happy. So Let's get into that.

1:01:24 Yeah, so definitely, definitely. And we saw this last year, by the way, as well. we are seeing that designers and researchers are the most negative. And just to clarify what I mean by that, what you can see in the slide is that When it comes to AI identity shifts. Designers and researchers are the highest in feeling either destabilized.

1:01:45 or diminished. When it comes to emotions like being tired, overwhelmed, or anxious. Researchers and Designers. uh lead the pack in in a negative way.

1:01:57 Of course, when it comes to worries about Losing one's job to AI. Again, researchers and designers are pretty much as high as one can be And then finally When it comes to these NPS like scores of whether people would recommend their role to a friend or to a colleague. researchers and designers are the least likely to recommend

1:02:19 entering their role at this point. We talked about this earlier. I don't know how much there more there's to add here. Basically it's Again, it's not that this function is in big trouble necessarily. It's this is how people in that function are feeling right now.

1:02:33 You know, I'm I'm not objective because I'm part of the research community and the design community Um If I may. I just want to tell people that

1:02:43 In this community that Um I truly and Honesty believe. That there's never been

1:02:50 a more important time for our roles to manifest in the products that we build. Um you've talked about this with many people, Lenny, in in previous interviews. about concept like taste. About concepts like craft. About concepts like quality I'm thinking of people like Kari Linus CO

1:03:12 who talk so beautifully about the importance of quality and How you build a product. I'm thinking about people like uh Uh like Um

1:03:23 Katie Dill comes to mind. She had a whole we had a whole conversation around Taste and beauty and about it. Uh recently uh Jenny Wen, who leads design uh for uh Claude at Anthropic. And so many other people who talk about the importance of taste.

1:03:41 Of judgment, of design. So I I honestly hope. that designers and researchers make a comeback when it comes to how they feel about this industry because the industry needs them. The industry needs us. And so

1:03:56 I hope we see a change. Next year and This is the call to all designers and researchers to get in there and do our thing because it's incredibly valuable at this hour. Yeah.

1:04:08 I've been I've had a few conversations recently about just design and in particular just why Why is design not a huge value add and differentiator today? Knowing AI is just so bad at it. We just had the

1:04:20 Head of the Codex app on talking about why AI like AI is not good at design. And you could clearly tell. A I design this thing. And you would think this was the moment for design to become such a value add and differentiator for companies.

1:04:34 Seeing all this AI sloth that's being produced. So I'm I'm optimistic that'll emerge as people are like, I'm so sick and tired of all these generic things. I I want to actually build something. Great. Yeah, and moreover, if I recall correctly, you you in that conversation talked about how some of the issues around AI doing design are perhaps tractable. problems. But some of them are Even intractable I I I would say, or definitely much, much harder.

1:04:59 To solve for it's still the case that creating incredible novel creative experiences. not something that this technology is uh quite capable of. So we'll see what happens, but I I really do hope that

1:05:14 The design and research community Turn around and change their minds about the industry next year. Yeah, the man. Can't wait to do next charity. What's it gonna be?

1:05:24 But if you actually look at the losing my job to AI. bucket, there's actually a role that is even more worried about losing their job, and I believe that is data analytics. Our shades are kind of uh very similar to keep it. To keep the message clear, but that's really interesting. The data Data analysts basically are the most worried about losing their job.

1:05:42 I think we're We're seeing uh Incredible capabilities. Make sense. Yeah, with the different the different models out there to to run. data analysis

1:05:55 I'm seeing this in the research realm. As well. I would suggest that we're also seeing incredible advancements in coding. So I was expecting engineering to be higher in certain places here. And and it's not Um

1:06:10 But again. This isn't about the objective reality of how far AI's come In terms of its capabilities doing each of these roles. This is about how people are feeling. in these roles. And there isn't a one to one correlation uh between between those things.

1:06:28 Speaking of that. Let's talk about who the happiest people are. Who's doing best? So the happiest people in tech Um this is something that did not change between last year's survey and this year's. It still found us

1:06:45 And people who are working in Smaller Companies. And I do feel the need to say that when it comes to founders, to your point earlier, being not that I know, but being a founder is an incredibly Challenging

1:07:00 All encompassing Job. And There is a certain selection bias here in the sense that these are people who are currently In the active

1:07:10 Well of a found uh In a start up that is is still running. Rather than founders who had to shut down. their start up or whatever it might be. So I I just want to make that clear around who we're looking at. But w but yes, when we look at

1:07:27 founders. And when we look at in this case, you're looking at Um company size as well. You can see that. Whether it's Optimism, whether it's uh

1:07:38 uh burnout, lay off worry, or whether people would recommend their job. Uh you're seeing these these uh increases or decreases depending on on the question. It's very clear That Founders are

1:07:54 top of nearly every measure there Seventy one percent optimistic. Uh they're enjoying their jobs. the most they have the lowest burnout, the lowest layoff worry, the most AI excitement. It's a it's a medium sized effect.

1:08:11 compared to other effects we saw. Um but very significant. And and that said, you know, if if we talk about founders Even having that ownership. And even having that agency has its limits.

1:08:25 Um founders are still Uh you know, many founders are still moderately or at least moderately burnt out. Forty seven percent of founders That would be

1:08:36 Um And as we said earlier. Even founders aren't very likely to recommend being a founder to other people. Right now, which is very interesting. I think it's also important to note.

1:08:47 Uh there's definitely this, as you said, this kind of uh meme of there's never been a better time to build. People may see this and be like, I gotta start a company, it's the best place to be. It may be this moment currently where people are feeling most excited about it. And then as the bubble, you know, I don't know if it's a bubble, but

1:09:05 As things start to get harder. There may be a Shift away from that. So it does So far interesting that we've seen two years in a row founders are the happiest. But I wonder if that changes if the market changes, if some you know.

1:09:16 That kind of thing. So This is insane. You're gonna be happy if you become a founder. But it is really interesting that two years in a row Like the most

1:09:25 Uh clear. one of the clearest takeaways is just founders seem to be happiest across every Dimension. Yeah. And then company size uh as well, again.

1:09:35 Uh optimism goes down if you're working for a larger company. Um, you get more burnt out if you're working for a larger company. you're more worried about layoffs if you're working for a larger company and you're less likely to recommend your role. If you're working for

1:09:51 a larger company. So that also remained Consistent And If we look just at burnout specifically, then you can see very clearly here that burnout

1:10:03 Climbs. In very significant ways. in between working for a small one to ten person startup And working for five thousand or ten thousand person.

1:10:15 Enterprise. company. It's so wild. It's wild how linear this is. Like there's no Bump and then those two at the end they're as you s point out here in the chart, they're

1:10:25 Within the margin of our but it's like while here it just like only goes up. There's not like a sweet spot and then it comes down again. And then if you go back to the previous start exactly the same thing. It's just like very linear. Everything Goes.

1:10:39 Uh. Uh and gets worse. Yeah, your company size grows. That's wild. Absolutely. I would say one thing to highlight here, like if you look at burnout, for example

1:10:49 is that even the the the lowest is still fairly high. Right. So I would say people are feeling somewhat less burnt out, somewhat healthier working for the starter, but I I would view these levels. Of burnout, of worry.

1:11:06 As uh as worrisome. I'm worried about the level of worry right now. In in tech. A good Vibe.

1:11:17 You know, you mentioned how we mess a decade ago at Airbnb. I do feel like the vibe was very different then in in tech. So I am a bit concerned about the numbers that we're seeing here. But yes. From a relative sense of relative point of view. Um Perhaps one should consider

1:11:36 Doing a shift and Starting your own thing or working for a smaller company. Yeah, exactly. And that'll be one of the takeaways. You know what would be awesome is if we do one of these for non tech. I'm really curious just Like you think people are. Feel scared and worried in tech.

1:11:49 I'm so curious how that would compare to, you know, like say the blue collar Folks or other functions like I I don't know if we have the audience to do that, but that'd be really interesting. I mean, I think my uh H rack technician is feeling pretty great about His career by now. burning hot in Florida. Everyone needs air conditioning. That's not gonna change

1:12:10 Anytime soon. Uh we've our takeaways. Yeah. Start a company. We should do that. Start a filming business. Oh man. Sure. So what I love about this Doing the survey as we're starting to Find things that are consistently true and

1:12:25 The next takeaway is another really good example that we saw last year too. uh around managers. Let's get into that. Yeah, so I mean

1:12:35 Perhaps people Uh Aware of this. Managers matter. a ton. Who your manager is probably matters more than most other

1:12:46 characteristics of your role And we found this very explicitly last year and this year Again. Um

1:12:54 Manager effectiveness. So we basically ask people How effective is your manager? How would you rate Your manager. What you can see here. is that the more effective your manager is

1:13:07 The less burnt out you feel. And the more you enjoy your job. And this is a massive Massive effects. Uh

1:13:17 With seen. So If you have an extremely effective manager, for example You're reporting around sixty five percent higher job enjoyment and dramatically lower

1:13:31 Burnout. The problem is Is the the supply. Um, only about twenty five percent of the sample reads their manager as

1:13:43 highly effective. And thirty six percent of the sample rated their managers as Ineffective. Which by the way is a Very small change from

1:13:53 From last year. So We're seeing managers be rated No. So well.

1:14:01 And at the same time, we're seeing that when managers are effective, which is clearly uh not often enough. The impact that has on people's enjoyment, burnout, and other aspects as well is incredible.

1:14:16 That's wild. Like Like I think we're adding new Uh Insight into the world here. Just

1:14:23 Finding this. I like I've never never seen this before, just how impactful a manager is. That we always hear anecdotes. We always hear like, you know, people Only leave j they don't leave jobs, they leave their manager. But it this is wild just how much that impacts you. And clearly one of the Takeaways might be go if you're having a bad time.

1:14:40 Find a better manager. And easier said than done. Yeah, but there's a couple of things here I want to I want to also note before we move on. First of all, we are in the era of the great flattening. We're in the era of founder mode. People have more direct reports now than Ever before

1:14:58 Um, we're trying to keep things as flat as possible and remove hierarchy. I'm concerned about this. I think um Obviously there are good arguments for Uh, flatness and knack of hierarchy.

1:15:10 Um But I am close to see where this goes. given the importance of Who your manager is on your well being.

1:15:19 And then the second thing is We talked earlier about being overworked about this squeeze that AI has on us. Who's the person more than anyone else Who kind of manages that squeeze. It's your manager.

1:15:34 Right? It's your manager who protects you. It's your manager who in many ways almost dictates Uh how much you maybe Overwork. Or no.

1:15:44 And so yeah, this this matters more than ever before. I'm definitely concerned that some of the negative phenomenon we're seeing are a function of what we're doing to managers in tech and how we're building out our organization. Such an interesting point. Yeah.

1:16:01 Whether we do it now or next time just looking at These metrics for managers, like how much more burned out are they? How much less happy and optimistic are they would be really interesting. There's a couple of notes here in the in the actual post that I wanna highlight that I thought are really interesting. Core takeaway here is the biggest

1:16:17 lever you have. To increase retention. In your company is Improve your managers. Put people on.

1:16:24 Connect people with better managers, basically. So interesting. That's like a thing you can do. Obviously easier said than done, but that's the biggest lever of things you can change. And then the other thing you noted is the worst rated managers. Cluster in

1:16:36 Data. Slash analytics and Design. Poor design. Yes, and I'm not sure there's

1:16:44 A clear explanation. Uh for that Um I think one possible explanation.

1:16:52 is that again, you know, managers are Just people. Two. And so design managers and data and analytics managers are Uh

1:17:03 In design and in analytics. They are suffering. Clearly. Based on what We saw

1:17:10 And I think it's hard to separate. How you feel. In tech. From your job as a manager, it's hard not to

1:17:20 Put some of your negative energy onto your team and the people you work with. And and so I have a lot of uh I have a lot of empathy. for design managers, research managers, data and analytics managers, and other managers in tech. who are having a hard time right now and they're not feeling energized. And unfortunately some of that is being

1:17:42 pushed on to the Direct reports. And then And then I very much appreciate in some of the companies I've worked for

1:17:52 having the opportunity to go through manager Training Which is something that's still all too rare, I feel, within organizations, if you're listening to this and you're a leader in an organization, if if you're C suite as a company

1:18:07 Please invest more. in your managers. And if you're looking for a job Right now. Consider carefully who your manager Might be because

1:18:18 probably nothing will have more impact on your well being than who that person ends up being. And to build on how uh difficult things are for companies right now. The level of coaching. And offers throwing out thrown out at the best people.

1:18:33 Just imagine how s sucky it is to find a great manager. train people to become awesome managers and then they get Yeah, yeah. Only to lose them to, you know, the labs, people with infinite money. So it's just extra hard.

1:18:46 Which is a good segue to our final takeaway, which is a really good summary of just what is what people are feeling right now. Yeah, it is the the wildest it's ever been. We asked people to describe the state of the tech industry. Right now, we got thousands of

1:19:05 responses. These were essentially open ended responses. And we just sort of clustered those descriptions into This uh this word cloud. I still love word cloud. Some research as a sort of anti-word cloud. I love I'm not gonna apologize. For the word cloud. No, this is like such a clear. Look at this. Just look at this. This is exactly what it feels like. Yeah. We're seeing change. We're seeing chaos. We're seeing speed. We're seeing excitement flux. hype, a lack of stability

1:19:38 A potential bubble But also crazy opportunities. Everything's evolving, everything's unstable. It comes with costs. It's better, it's worth

1:19:49 It's huge, it's confusing. All smush together. Into a more chaotic industry. than it's ever been. Um, I don't understand anything about baseball, or maybe it's cricket.

1:20:04 But we got this quote. Do you want to find baseball? Does Hopefully if you're watching you understand these things, but we've got this quote. We're in the second inning. of a massive shift No one knows how it will end.

1:20:18 But all you can do is keep taking at bats. Is that a cricket thing? No baseball. That's baseball. I think it's I don't know how many innings. I don't know if there's innings in cricket, but it's definitely baseball. Uh Works for baseball, at least. Yeah. Basically it's just saying keep trying, just keep taking

1:20:33 Taking shots, shots on goal. Lot of more metaphors. Yeah, so many good quotes. Another one I I see here which was which was good one. Tech is manic. Half out of touch.

1:20:45 Clinging to the bandwagon, pouring into the overhype. The other half are exhausted by the first half. That came from a senior PM. Um Yeah, f fascinating stuff. When we look at this overall It's crazy how we see

1:21:01 Again, this bifurcation that thirty seven percent Of the woods Use when we ran sentence analysis. were positive. Thirty seven percent.

1:21:13 were negative. And the the remaining twenty six percent or so Were neutral. Basically an even split.

1:21:23 We're all seeing the same thing, but half of us find it thrilling. The other half find it terrifying. Um I was I was you know, rather taken aback when I when I saw these data. It's pretty wild how equally

1:21:38 Uh uh divided we are. Yeah. Man.

1:21:44 And uh I think you used this quote earlier that this is the most normal it's ever gonna be. I mean, I I don't know. Um, the prophecy was given to the fools, so I'm not gonna try and be a be a prophet, but um yes, I I doubt it's gonna get, you know, more normal and normalized statistically than than this. So Mm. We'll wait and see, I guess.

1:22:06 Yeah. Uh Like if we zoom out. We're living through history right now. The amount of change and the like this is unprecedented. You know, the industrial revolution is always the metaphor people use, which is

1:22:18 Accurate. Uh Maybe crazier, maybe not. But it's that's the interesting part. Like what an interesting time to be living through. Elon had this really interesting way of describing it. Like We're definitely living in a simulation if we're

1:22:30 If we're alive right now. when we're about to start building data centers in space. And AI is gonna be as smart as human brains. Like what are the chances you are alive at that moment? Uh, which is probably okay, maybe some higher intelligence is simulating the most interesting time in history. Uh I don't know if that's good or bad.

1:22:49 But Less than I have a lot of respect for for uh Elon Um people like Elon

1:22:58 Have chosen focus On the universe and what's out there and the laws that govern the universe and that's their focus. I became a psychologist by academic training at least. Because my focus has always been

1:23:14 on people And if I had to share a closing thoughts to wrap up all of this research. I would say that having the most advanced AI and the access to the best models in the world.

1:23:28 Won't Won't Determine. Whether your organization succeeds. We have to remember

1:23:36 that underlying all of this stuff. Uh People. People, we as people are going through the most Massive

1:23:47 shift and changes that we ever have. In our lives. And it's people. who are feeding Excited.

1:23:55 And exhausted And hopeful. And scared Often all at once. And we're all taking part

1:24:04 In crafting and building this future. That we hope still has a place for us. In a few years. And so I keep that in mind all the time. Um It's people driving

1:24:19 These innovations. It's incredible people building these Technologies My focus will always be on on the people and I hope that if you're out there watching this, you take care of yourself. You touch grass.

1:24:34 You take a moment to reflect on what you want for yourself in in your career. And do you remember, again, that it's fine to feel all of the emotions and you should just Uh do whatever works for you to get through this.

1:24:50 Wild period. In The tech industry. So kinda building on that, you You spend a lot of time thinking through

1:24:59 the results and what people can actually do with this data,'cause it's one thing to just report. Here's what people are feeling. Okay, cool. Uh what should people do? So there's a really important section at the end of the Report that uh that we should spend a little time on, which is just what where do we go from here?

1:25:14 What does this tell us we should be doing if we can do anything? To kinda move ourselves basically into A happier place. So starting with if you're an employee, you know, especially if you're an I C working at a company.

1:25:27 One thing we saw people who feel amplified and energized reporting is that they actually went Deep. on specific tasks and specific jobs to be done. Rather than trying to be the generalist who does

1:25:42 Everything. I think it's the people who try to be or or lean too much into being a generalist, who end up getting severely Burnt out. Right. And so I just want to caution people a a a little bit away from the narratives that

1:25:58 You need to be a generalist at this point and just do all of the things and completely ignore the core parts. of your will. I think that's a bad bad idea and based on what people are reporting it, it's not gonna end up with you at least feeling. Good. Right.

1:26:12 Um I also Would love for people to watch out for this squeeze. being overworked for the same pay We deserve better.

1:26:23 We've linked in the article to a burnout test. Take the test. See where you're at on the burnout scale. And then, you know, based on that. Reflect. On where you are

1:26:35 Talk to your manager. Scope out your work. Again. you know, recalibrate, realign with your manager on your work and make sure that you're not being uh squeezed out of of

1:26:47 uh you know, being positive about about your role and being successful In your role. Um as you're going through this list, let me just make sure people fully understand the frame that we're Uh'cause you made these two buckets basically. Things you can do. Based on this result. One is just if you're an employee.

1:27:03 I think you have five pieces of advice. If you're a company, you have Five is pieces of advice. So just to be super clear, the first one is just Uh pick a couple of things you want AI to be useful for and just go deep on those couple of things.

1:27:16 Versus trying to spread it all around and AI has to be doing everything for you. Pick a couple of things that you're most excited about. And then just go really deep there. The other is this what you said, just watch the squeeze. Watch you being squeezed and talk to your manager about hey, my scope's increased, nothing's changed comp wise, that kinda thing. Absolutely. And then speak of managers again, the third point is that your manager clearly matters more than pretty much anything else when it comes to how you feel. About work.

1:27:40 Protect that relationship, invest In that relationship. Build up good communication lines with Your manager. Learn to manage up.

1:27:51 Better that investment in that relationship will pay off greatly. In terms of how you feel. Um and then beyond that Um first of all

1:28:01 If you want to try out working for a smaller company or starting your own company Clearly there are some advantages. Two that sound, so it it might be worth considering And then If you're

1:28:14 Earlier in your career. And you feel like the rungs of the ladder are slowly disappearing and it's becoming harder to climb that ladder. Um, I'm a huge believer in mentorship and the value of mentorship. strong mentorship is still an incredibly effective

1:28:31 Seek the teams, seek the managers, seek the people who are willing to invest in developing you. Um it's incredibly valuable, especially in this era. So That's what we have for employees.

1:28:44 And then if you're leading a team, if you're leading a company, then again, as we mentioned before, invest in your managers. It's probably some of the best money you'll ever ever spend. Um it's it's sad to me that only a quarter of our sample and perhaps tech workers in general rate their manager as highly effective. That to me is a major, major red flag. It's a major issue in tech.

1:29:08 And so if you want to improved burnout. If you want to elevate enjoyment. If you want to improve Retention. With these crazy job offers uh flying around from

1:29:19 From AI labs. You have to invest in Your managers. Um and then otherwise Manage that squeeze.

1:29:28 People are feeling how AI is raising bars in ways that aren't sustainable See you have to figure out the right level of expectations and the right level of productivity Um

1:29:41 Don't let that bottom rung of the ladder Rot, you know, make sure that You're doing what you need to. for entry level people to advanced because those early career people are also probably some of the most

1:29:55 AI native people you can find, right? They find it very natural. To use these technologies. In some ways more so than people who Have been a little bit more than Uh

1:30:06 You know. Two Uh used to Previous paradigms.

1:30:13 So Um And then Selfishly. I hope that leaders pay

1:30:20 A little bit more attention to design and research and other roles who are feeling Uh more negative than than other worlds. And keep in mind That

1:30:31 This technology AI Is lifting some people And destabilizing. Others.

1:30:38 And you really have to pay attention to that. We are clearly Not Experiencing this technology In the same way. Amazing takeaways.

1:30:48 I wanna double down on that burnout survey that you um that you mentioned. Oh, and I mean we're gonna link to it in the show notes, but I actually People sa like it sounds like dumb and w why am I gonna do that? I've like I've definitely gone through periods of burnout. And wasn't aware that that was was happening.

1:31:03 And it's so helpful to like, oh wow. This is not normal. What I'm feeling right now. And knowing this that you're okay, you're extremely burnt out right now. You you then you can decide what you want to do with that information. Often it's you know, talk to a coach, talk to your manager, take

1:31:17 Some time off if you can, but just knowing that is actually really powerful. And he made this really Great. Uh quiz based on actual science and research that

1:31:26 That uh that we'll link to. Hundred percent. Awesome. Uh no one. Is there anything else?

1:31:34 That We haven't talked about anything else you want to leave? Folks with we've covered a lot, so I don't know if there's anything left. We'll obviously link them to the report where they can go deeper. We're also gonna do a follow up based on What comes out of this conversation, what we see in the comments.

1:31:48 'Cause this is a lot of information and a lot of Uh scary stuff, some optimistic stuff. Um we can't, you know, we're not gonna have answers to everything, but we're planning to do a follow up of just here's what came up. Let's see if we can find any answers. But other than that, is there anything else that You wanna share?

1:32:04 There's one. Interesting phenomenon that I wanted to to mention Um we're starting to see this AI guilt? And in particular amongst people who are early in their career, in the sense that

1:32:17 People who are early in their career feel like Leveraging this technology is a little bit like cheating. In a sense. And that guilt declines with Signority.

1:32:29 Um And in particular, we're seeing people in actually product marketing and data and analytics. Which showed up previously in a couple of places. Feeding the most Guilt.

1:32:42 Um This is related to the well known and well established imposter phenomenon Right, like I'm Not good enough.

1:32:51 Um competent people feeling like their success isn't maybe theirs. It's someone else's. Except this time we're putting that on AI on a technology. Well that then Other people.

1:33:04 Um I would say to all of you who might be feeling that guilt. AI is an incredible technology. Um leverage it. Learn how to leverage it.

1:33:15 I doubt it's uh going away. Um it's the worst it's ever gonna be today. It's only getting better. Um so there's no no reason to feel guilty about leveraging it on On the contrary, um I I think Inevitably we all are.

1:33:30 All the time. So Well, to close note, I just wanna appreciate you. It's uh incredible the work that you've done here and the work that you we've done together over the many surveys. Uh it's just like it's like a side thing you do with me. Uh

1:33:44 running like, I don't know, one of the biggest surveys out there around the stuff, maybe the biggest, analyzing it, writing it. Uh so beautifully. Uh so uh I think this is a really unique and and special report and I appreciate you for doing this with me. It's uh I'm really

1:33:59 Uh I'm really happy about where this all goes and and just the what we're doing for folks. Thank you so so much. Well, with that no um or can people find you online if they want to reach out, maybe follow up questions. And how can listeners be useful to you? Yeah, so the best places to find me are on LinkedIn. I'd love to connect with anyone who wants to connect on LinkedIn.

1:34:19 Or within Lenny's community, within uh your Slack. Um, I hang out there and always happy to talk to people within the community. So Please catch me on LinkedIn or on Slack, that would be best. How can listeners be useful to you, no one? If you're watching this

1:34:34 What I would like to convey is that um I hope this research has been helpful to you. And more than anything, I hope that you consider participating in a future research project of ours. Um I'm really, really glad that we get to do these things, Lenny, and And I

1:34:51 want to give all of you watching the opportunity to learn more about what's going on in tech. how you can be better at your job. you know, how you can feel about her about your job and all things in in between We plan to continue conduct both Um quick polls.

1:35:10 of the community. In depth, longer form. surveys, interviews, all sorts of things. And so if you get a message, an email, a slack. about a research project. Please participate.

1:35:24 Would love to hear your voices, hear your perspectives. And then share that back. With the community and Hopefully it makes us all better at our jobs. And also feel better.

1:35:35 about our jobs. Because I do hope that even though much of this was Little bit tough. And perhaps negative I chew any. I'm an internal optimist. I'm a techno optimist. I I believe this is going in good directions.

1:35:50 And I want to make sure we capture that accurately. See ya. Please participate. We'd love to see you. In our next research projects. Excellent ask.

1:36:01 With that, Noam, thank you so much for being here. Thanks a bunch. Thank you so much for listening. If you found this valuable, you can subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast app. Also, please consider giving us a rating or leaving a review, as that really helps other listeners find the podcast. You can find all past episodes or learn more about the show at Lenny's Podcast.com.

1:36:25 See you in the next episode.

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